Big Kid Adds (Week 15)

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While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Note: Again, I noticed almost no good options and it showed in the players added. Normally, I write up the players added in five or more leagues, so I included a few guys added in just four leagues.

Hitters

Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (7): The high contact bat is off and flying by hitting .462/.481/.577 (.450 BABIP) in 27 PA. His 90% Contact% is ninth among all hitters (min 20 PA). While he hit 7 HR in AAA this year, they were from only 4 Barrels. He hasn’t barreled a ball in the majors. He did steal 15 bases in AAA, so hopefully he’ll steal some in the majors. Luis Arraez clone.

I ran comps on hitters with similar AAA contact and power numbers and how they performed once promoted to the majors. Here are the comps.

There are some failures, but some useful players who were able to take a step forward.

Josh Lowe (5): Since returning from the IL (11 straight starts), Lowe is batting .323/.344/.581 (.400 BABIP) with 2 HR and 2 SB. While his Bat Speed is constant, his AvgEV is up 4.7 mph, and HardHit% is up 16% points.

I don’t see a breakout happening because Lowe has seen bigger upswings in the past.

The results have never stuck, so I doubt they will this time.

Romy Gonzalez (5): Started in six of eight games since coming off the IL. The Red Sox faced three righties during that time frame and sat against two of them so he might just be a short-side platoon bat.

If his current swing results continue, I’m not sure he’ll have any power upside. His Bat Speed is down from 74.3 mph last season to 71.3 mph this year. In 17 batted balls, he has a -5 deg LA leading to a 59% GB%.

His stats might be hiding the weak, groundball nature since he’s batting .292/.320/.542 (.375 BABIP).

Kyle Karros (4): Before last week’s seven games in Colorado, Karros was hitting .251/.346/.388. Then he went “En Fuego” during the seven games against Miami’s and San Francisco’s staffs batting .375/.483/.792. In 302 PA, he has a .260 AVG and 7 HR. Those are fine for a home streamer, not someone going on the road for the week.

Victor Bericoto (4): I thought there might be a little more demand for the rookie, but he’s come out of nowhere. We rank him as the 21st prospect in the Giants system. The deal is that he’s been a solid producer across the board (.309/.321/.582, 4 HR, 1 SB), qualified at two positions, and started in seven of the last 10 games. The weakness he’s showing in the majors is a 55% GB%.

Must add to see where this goes.

Starters

Hunter Greene (8): All these NFBC leagues were drafted in the last week before the season started. In eight of the nine leagues, none of the managers felt it was worthwhile to draft and hold Greene. According to the NFBC rules, an undrafted player can’t be rostered until they play in a major league game.

While Greene’s minor league rehab went fine (0.00 ERA, 4.45 xFIP, 0.49 WHIP, 8.2 K/9), his debut was a disaster. He lasted only 3 IP by allowing 8 ER on 7 H, 4 BB, and 7 K. He posted a 40% Ball% for the game, which points to a 5.1 BB/9.

All his struggles stem from a lack of control with his fastball. Over his career, he put his four-seamer in the zone 57% of the time. It was just a 45% Zone% in his debut. At least his fastball velocity was fine at 99 mph.

He’s a must-roster for a return to the previous two seasons (combined 2.76 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 10.5 K/9), but I’m hesitant to start him until he has some fastball control.

Trevor McDonald (5): It was a two-start week for McDonald, and the first one went horribly. He allowed 8 ER in 2.1 IP while walking one batter and striking out no one. A .625 BABIP will lead to horrible results.

Besides his 5.46 ERA, the projection, STUPH models, and ERA estimators point to a 4.00 talent.

His struggles stem from lefties lighting him up. While righties have just a .515 OPS against him, lefties have a .904 OPS. When any lefties face him, they turn into Pete Crow-Armstrong (.908 OPS) or Byron Buxton (.904 OPS) at the plate.

He has an effective changeup (17% SwStr%, 14% Usage), but both our pitching models are not a fan (43 botOvr, 71 Pitching+).

He’s a two-pitch guy (sinker, curve), and it’s seen in the results against him each time through the order.

TTO: vsOPS
1st: .629
2nd: .759
3rd: .871

He’s far from a perfect pitcher who needs to improve his changeup or find another offering to get batters out a second or third time.

Jameson Taillon (5): I’m not sure why a pitcher with a 5.19 ERA (4.75 xFIP) and 1.30 WHIP is in demand. His results have tanked as his fastball velocity has dropped.

I’d rather gamble on someone else.

Reynaldo López (5): In three games since rejoining the Braves rotation, he has a 2.08 ERA (3.95 xFIP), 0.92 WHIP, and 8.3 K/9. A huge improvement compared to the four starts to begin the season with a 4.60 ERA (4.80 xFIP), 1.66 WHIP (5.2 BB/9), and 9.8 K/9. Besides throwing more strikes (41% Ball% to 36% Ball%), he upped his curveball (11% SwStr%) usage from from 12% to 20%.

The deal is that Lopez has shown three-game stretches like this one (not even a great stretch) in the past, and fallen apart.

I could see him as a bench or a waiver-wire streamer, but I’ll need to see more before buying in completely.

Spencer Miles (4): With a lack of starting pitcher options, I was in on Miles and even had to start him in a couple of leagues. His problem right now is volume. Since signing with the Giants in 2022, he has 14 IP total in the four seasons. He’s already at 58 IP this year.

Over the last five games, he’s improved his pitch count from 20 to 28 to 35 to 47 to 55. I expect more from him since he’s thrown 73 pitches in a game earlier in the season. During this recent stretch, he has a 1.54 ERA (2.49 xFIP), 1.20 WHIP (1.5 BB/9), and 9.3 K/9.

Relievers

Tyler Wells (9): With Ryan Helsley on the IL and Wells getting the last two Saves, Wells was a must-add for teams desperate for Saves.

Jordan Romano (4): He has the team’s last two Saves. Maybe the Rockies will fix the reliever who has struggled (7.75 ERA, 4.26 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9 over the last three seasons) on three other teams (TOR, PHI, LAA) the past three seasons.