The experiment from last week’s post on modeling for strikeout rate continues this week with a look at walk rate:

1. I’ve limited to players with at least 120 PAs because it is a good point of stabilization for hitter BB%.
2. I’m using 2017-2019 as a training set and then deploying my model on 2021 data to look for differences between model predictions and actuals.
3. My model only tells us what should be expected from a hitter who accumulates at least 120 plate appearances in a season based on what other players have done in the same situation from 2017-2019. 2020 is excluded. The predictions of this model should not be confused with expectations.

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The Healing Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ron Shandler

LABR Congratulations

Strategy Section

• Dealing with the current injury frequency level in baseball
  • Roster construction
  • Risk management
    • Broad Assesment Balance Sheet (BABS)
  • Reasons for injury frequency by team
  • Risk-adjusted pricing vs. managing to a risk budget
  • First round picks
    • Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Ronald Acuna Jr.
• How to think about Binary Risk
  • Jacob deGrom
• Playing fantay against “Power Drafters” who take on more risk
• Is the market still right to draft risky elite starting pitching?
• Is the market overpricing stable closers in early drafts?
• How to value prospects in drafts?
  • Bobby Witt Jr.

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Here is the first run of my top-150 starting pitcher rankings for 2022. I create these by turning my personal projections into dollar values and using those, along with non-projection factors, to rank accordingly.

These will change, as my projections do, over the course of the offseason, with many being driven by adjustments in playing time projections more so than changes in talent rates. ADP information is taken from NFBC, previous values are calculated with FanGraphs auction calculator. Read the rest of this entry »

12/21/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer
• @jasoncollette – Co-Host

PATREON

• Join our Patreon

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Buck Showalter to NYM

IN FOCUS: 3B Ranking Debates

• Austin Riley P:3, J:5
• Adalberto Mondesi P/J: 4
• Ryan McMahon P:12, J:15
• Eugenio Suárez P:19, J: 22

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I’ll be releasing my first run of positional rankings over the next week or so. My rankings with the individual comments will come after the new year, but these will lay the groundwork and show you where I’m at to start. These are for 5×5 15-teamers with a 20-game eligibility threshold.

Let’s discuss in the comments!

• 2B Rankings
• 1B Rankings
• SS Rankings

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Trust me I know the catcher position is insanely boring and especially boring when you have to analyze the players. Well, as I prepare for my draft season I did break down every possible catcher for the fantasy season. Here are some fun facts and opinions I gathered while doing so, maybe this can help ease your pain.

When you think of power in terms of catchers you think of course think Salvador Perez and Mike Zunino. Perez broke the catcher record with 48 home runs while Zunino put up an impressive 33 home runs. But only Zunino had a higher max exit velocity than Willson Contreras who had a 115.4 Max EV.

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The Understanding Statistics Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Mike Podhorzer

Bar Mitzvah Talk

• Coke & Pepsi

Projections

• Pod Projections
• Manual vs. automated projections
• Where do automated projections fail / blind spots?

In-Season

• At what point in the season should you rely on in-season statistics vs. pre-season projections?
  • Francisco Lindor 2021

Understandings Statistics Section

• Hitting Statistics
  • BA
  • OBP
  • SLG
  • OPS
  • BB%
  • K%
  • HR/FB%
  • Barrel%
• How can you tell if a YOY increase in a statistic is real skill, or if it was a fluke?
• BABIP
• Using Statcast to identify pockets of value / undervalued players
• What in-season statistics should you use when setting waiver wire pickups for hitters?
• Pitching Statistics
  • ERA
  • WHIP
  • Swing Strike %
• How to adjust for a potential universal DH in 2022?
• Strand Rate (LOB%)
• ERA Estimators
  • FIP vs. xFIP vs. SIERA
    • Descriptive vs. Predictive
• What in-season statistics should you use when setting waiver wire pickups for pitchers?
  • K% is superior to K/9
  • K-BB% or K% – Which is more valuable to track in-season?
• What statistics should one track to tout relievers for saves in 2022?
• Scouting for saves in 2022
• Other important statistics to track
  • Plate discipline metrics
    • O-Swing%, Z-Swing%, O-Contact%, Z-Contact%, etc.

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With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

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12/18/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon

IN FOCUS: SS Ranking Debates

• Fernando Tatis Jr. (2:28)
• Francisco Lindor (8:00)
• Tim Anderson (11:50)
• Carlos Correa (17:50)

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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I’ll be releasing my first run of positional rankings over the next week or so. My rankings with the individual comments will come after the new year, but these will lay the groundwork and show you where I’m at to start. These are for 5×5 15-teamers with a 20-game eligibility threshold.

Let’s discuss in the comments!

• 2B Rankings
• 1B Rankings

Read the rest of this entry »