Nicklaus Gaut’s 2022 SP Rankings

Here is the first run of my top-150 starting pitcher rankings for 2022. I create these by turning my personal projections into dollar values and using those, along with non-projection factors, to rank accordingly.

These will change, as my projections do, over the course of the offseason, with many being driven by adjustments in playing time projections more so than changes in talent rates. ADP information is taken from NFBC, previous values are calculated with FanGraphs auction calculator.

Notes from the Top-50

#1: Jacob deGrom, NYM (22 ADP, SP 6)

2021: 92 IP – 7 W – 146 SO – 1.08 ERA – 0.55 WHIP

How (and even if) I draft deGoat will depend on who I pick before him and how much risk I’m willing to assume for that particular draft. Because I’m not just going to assume that he’s going to get hurt, as long as he’s on track for spring training.

If it was anyone else with the same injury circumstances, he would likely be a complete write-off. But the amount of fantasy value he can bring in even a partial season (never mind what value you get from his hypothetical replacement) gives him a high enough floor that the price might be right in some drafts, particularly if you’re confident in getting good pitching values late.

Remember that in just 92 IP last season, deGrom finished as the #6 SP in 12-team leagues, according to the FanGraphs auction calculator. Even if he’s not quite what he was in 2021, deGrom can still return near top-10 starter value in ~100 IP and if he gets around 150 IP, he’ll likely be number-one. And if the baseball gods hear our prayers and he somehow goes full-Tanaka, that margin of victory will be comfortable.

#8: Robbie Ray, SEA (45 ADP, SP 13) 

2021: 193.1 IP – 13 W – 248 SO – 2.84 ERA – 1.04 WHIP

Even after winning the Cy Young award, I guess the crowd still doesn’t quite trust Ray, being drafted around a 47 ADP (26 min, 62 max). If you believe that his 6.7% BB% was an illusion, that hesitancy can be understood but I really think Ray figured things out under the tutelage of pitching whisper, Pete Walker. And there is certainly no worry in his strikeout game.

It’s natural to assume regression for a career-low 2.84 ERA and 1.04 WHIP but I’m betting on some of that being offset by his move to Seattle and (more importantly) out of the AL East meatgrinder. I mean, you really couldn’t draw things up better, with Ray getting upgrades in his home stadium and (likely) strength of schedule. And while Seattle is not quite Toronto, the Mariners are still expected to have a very competitive team, with a bullpen that might be excellent.

#16: Sandy Alcantara, MIA (40 ADP, SP 11)

2021: 206 IP – 9 W – 201 SO – 3.19 ERA – 1.07 ERA

I believe in the continuation of everything we saw from Alcantara in 2021 and mostly expect more of the same in 2021. The low strikeout rate was one of my two bugaboos in regards to his prior fantasy ceiling but a parallel jump in SwStr% makes me more confident that the new rate can stick around:

 

But even more positive was the change in velocity, with all of his pitches seeing a bump but particularly his fastball, which rose from 96.5 mph  to 97.8 mph, and his slider, which increased from 87.3 mph to 90.4 mph:

Unfortunately, my biggest bugaboo still remains because Alcantara still plays for the Marlins and most leagues still count wins. I’d bump him way up in a QS league (or in points) but lack of wins lowers his ceiling for me in classic 5×5 roto.

#21: Justin Verlander, HOU (124 ADP, SP 34)

2021: Missed with injury

For once in my fantasy life, I’m high on Verlander? This doesn’t feel right. Obviously, there are injury concerns for a soon-to-be 39-year-old pitcher who has only had 6 IP in the past two years but much like deGrom, I’m separating risk from value and won’t just assume injury.

Putting risk aside, Verlander’s skill-set and situation gives him a very high fantasy floor. A high strikeout rate is an easy bet and his proclivity for getting deep into games (along with Houston’s offense and bullpen) should put him in plenty of positions to get wins. And while I’m not banking on an ERA from his prime days in Houston, I’m am willing to bet on a WHIP that is well-above average – Verlander has a 0.98 WHIP since 2015 (1010 IP) and a 0.83 WHIP as an Astro (477 IP).

If he’s relatively healthy, my current projection for Verlander (176 IP – 12 W – 212 SO – 3.67 ERA – 1.06 WHIP) feels fairly conservative. But that would be good enough to bring a big ROI at his current draft price. Be forewarned, though, because that price is rising rapidly. Out of the 60 completed so far in NFBC, Verlander’s 141 ADP in the first 30 rose to a 108 ADP over the last 30. I’ll be moderately shocked if he doesn’t climb inside a 90 ADP for February-March.

#32: Ranger Suárez, PHI (166 ADP, SP 49)

2021: 106 IP – 8 W – 107 SO – 1.36 ERA – 1.00 WHIP – 4 SV

I feel like I’ve written enough about my love for this non-Texas Ranger but figured I should probably drop one more note given the elevated ranking. Tl;dr

Suárez has an excellent pair of seam-shifted fastballs, with the sinker becoming his primary offering and garnering premium groundball rates. His changeup and slider are both solid now but the latter has a chance to turn be an even more potent weapon, finishing the season with a 31.8% CSW% and 14.3% SwStr%. But the slidepiece was even better as a starter, posting a 36.7% CSW% and 15.6% SwStr%.

His home ballpark doesn’t do him any favors and the Phillies still need to add more to their bullpen than Corey Knebel. But I believe in the general talent increase (and strikeout rate bump), with my only concern being his usage. I might be aggressive in projecting 167 IP but think he’ll still return a good value even at ~150-160 IP.

#44: Adam Wainwright, STL (179 ADP, SP 52)

2021: 206 IP – 17 W – 174 SO – 3.05 ERA – 1.06 WHIP

The old man in the Lou continued his rejuvenation tour in 2021 by putting up numbers over 206.1 IP that were virtually identical to what he ran over 65.2 IP in 2020. And far different than his declining numbers from the seasons before:

I’m not betting on him totally turning back the clock again but even without a repeat of 2021’s superlative numbers, the whole of his fantasy profile will be more than the sum of its parts. Strikeouts will again be the smallest part by rate, as there are no reasons to believe it will be much higher than 20%. But the below-average rate will get an accumulation boost if Wainwright again makes 30+ starts.

Trying to count on wins is always going to be a crapshoot but you can at least try to load the die in your favor and Wainwright has the circumstances, profile, and history to do so. He’ll be backed by a good offense and bullpen, while the defense is drowning in gold gloves. And pity the poor manager who tries to take him out, as any good St. Louisan will tell you that Wainwright is a certified red-ass – who learned at the knee of hall of fame RA, Chris Carpenter – and who really, really does not like coming out.

In the 12 seasons that he’s made at least 10 starts, Wainwright’s worst total is 11 wins – excepting 2020 in which he picked up a win in 5-of-10 starts. Of those seasons, his worst per-start and per-inning rates are 0.39 W/GS and 0.59 W per 9 IP. Even those lows would put him at 12 wins in 30 starts or 180 IP. You can’t predict wins but also some guys seem to always have a mess of them. I’m fine with those two things being true at the same time and letting Ockham take the wheel the wheel from analytics for a bit.

Yanking that wheel back, the smart bet says that there is regression coming to those shiny ratios from the past few seasons. But I’m bullish on the hammer not being too hard, in part due to the big improvements he’s shown against left-handers.

Lefties have posted a .284 wOBA (.310 xwOBA) against him in 2020-2021, a far cry from the .356 wOBA (.343 xwOBA) they ran between 2017-2019. The biggest difference in his plan of attack in 2021 was throwing his changeup (n=196) more than he had since 2010, with a grand majority coming versus LHH:

The increased usage brought back good results, with left-handers managing just a .265 wOBA (.266 xwOBA) against his changeup, with identical numbers on contact. And looking at the above pitch tracks, you can see how batters might have more trouble with the changeup and sinker fading away from them, while his cutter can work in with an elite horizontal break that was 68% higher than average of pitches thrown at a similar velocity and extension.

Speaking of the cutter, not only is it of the seam-shifted variety, with a 60-minute deviation between its inferred and observed spin direction but it and his sinker (-60-minute deviation) are being “pushed” by their (presumed) SSW effect in opposite directions. With similar points of commitment, this could be making it more difficult for batters to recognize, react, and square up the two pitches, even at their below-average velocity.

I’m not sure there’s much reason to bring up his bread and butter but in case you were wondering, the hook still plays.

Cover your mouth, Adam. That’s filthy:

There might not be anything sexy about it but Wainwright is like a warm and comfy blanket for your fantasy rotation, reliable and safe. Basically the opposite of…

#49: Blake Snell, SD (129 ADP, SP 36)

2021: 128.2 IP – 7 W – 170 SO – 4.20 ERA – 1.32 WHIP

Do you know what I’m confident in for Snell in 2022? A strikeout rate above 30%, and…and…Well, that about ends our discussion. Let’s be clear; Snell’s talent is unquestioned and he is a very, very good pitcher. In real life, that is. But in fantasy life? Not so much. Or, at least, his path to overall value seems narrow when looking at his likely contributions in the four starting pitcher categories, with IP ostensibly serving as the fifth.

Strikeouts shouldn’t be a problem and Snell seems to again be a virtual lock for around a 30% K% – though a 12.9% SwStr%  in 2021 (down from 15.0% in 2020 and 17.7% in 2019) certainly wasn’t inspiring. But even assuming the K% stays high, his strikeout total will be less shiny if the innings are again light.

Outside of 180.2 IP in his 2018 Cy Young campaign, Snell has a max of 129.1 IP (in 2017) and had 128.2 IP in 2021. This isn’t just an injury thing, it’s also his too-oft habit of going less than five innings, limiting his chance for wins. Since his 21 wins in 2018, Snell has a total of 17 wins in 61 starts, maxing out at 7 wins last season. For added context, Snell would jump to SP 38 in my values if you remove wins as a category.

Snell will also likely again be a liability in WHIP and the 1.20 WHIP he ran in 2020 (and still didn’t return positive value) seems around the best-case scenario. His other ratio should be much more valuable but  sub-3.50 ERA still seems less likely than 3.50 – 3.75 ERA. Good, just not great.

Good with one ratio, bad with the other. Good with strikeouts, bad with wins. Great pitcher, narrow path to overall fantasy value.

Luckily, this is a totally innocuous opinion, and no one of consequence will care and/or appear out of nowhere to dropkick me and my opinion to the moon. Wait…Oh no…

Good god! That’s Paul Sporer’s music!