Paul Sporer’s 2022 3B Rankings
I’ll be releasing my first run of positional rankings over the next week or so. My rankings with the individual comments will come after the new year, but these will lay the groundwork and show you where I’m at to start. These are for 5×5 15-teamers with a 20-game eligibility threshold.
Let’s discuss in the comments!
Paul Sporer’s 2022 3B Rankings
| RK | PLAYER |
|---|---|
| 1 | Jose Ramirez |
| 2 | Rafael Devers |
| 3 | Austin Riley |
| 4 | Adalberto Mondesi |
| 5 | Manny Machado |
| 6 | Nolan Arenado |
| 7 | Kris Bryant |
| 8 | Alex Bregman |
| 9 | Anthony Rendon |
| 10 | Ke’Bryan Hayes |
| 11 | DJ LeMahieu |
| 12 | Ryan McMahon |
| 13 | Luis Urías |
| 14 | Yoán Moncada |
| 15 | Matt Chapman |
| 16 | Justin Turner |
| 17 | Gio Urshela |
| 18 | Eduardo Escobar |
| 19 | Eugenio Suárez |
| 20 | Josh Donaldson |
| 21 | Jeimer Candelario |
| 22 | Patrick Wisdom |
| 23 | Kyle Seager |
| 24 | Alec Bohm |
| 25 | Jonathan Villar |
| 26 | Joey Wendle |
| 27 | Cavan Biggio |
| 28 | Abraham Toro |
| 29 | Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 |
| 30 | Josh Jung |
| 31 | Carter Kieboom |
| 32 | Luis Arraez |
| 33 | Brian Anderson |
| 34 | Evan Longoria |
| 35 | Hunter Dozier |
| 36 | J.D. Davis |
| 37 | Jose Miranda |
| 38 | Joshua Fuentes |
| 39 | Josh Harrison |
| 40 | Yu Chang |
| 41 | Mike Moustakas |
| 42 | Yandy Díaz |
| 43 | Tyler Wade |
| 44 | Wilmer Flores |
| 45 | Santiago Espinal |
| 46 | Nolan Jones |
| 47 | Mike Brosseau |
| 48 | Jake Burger |
| 49 | Colton Welker |
| 50 | Jason Vosler |
| 51 | Matt Duffy |
| 52 | David Bote |
| 53 | Aledmys Díaz |
| 54 | Jon Berti |
| 55 | Rougned Odor |
Woof
At the ugliness of this position? Agreeeeeed. We’re discussing them on the pod today and it’s so blaahhhh
Yes that was in reference to the 3B pool — not a comment about your rankings or work!
LOL Glad you cleared that up.
Moncada after Urias and McMahon at 3B? Unless you think Moncada is staying 15 or less HR, I disagree with that.
I’ve been a long time Moustakas fan due to his consistency, but the recent years have been very unkind to him in regards to injury. Is his ranking due to a lack of playing time or a high likelihood of injury? He was as solid as they came before these past couple of years, so I’m wondering if there’s any path to get back to that.
He’s behind Eugenio Suarez on the depth chart, but you’re right that he was solid – his Steamer projection is below average but not unplayable. My guess is that with an NL DH, he gets at least a strong-side platoon share. I can’t see him displacing Suarez, since the Reds will be inclined to try to build his value back up for a possible trade.
Moustakas is probably effectively unmovable, but Suarez is making only $11 million a year.
Riley seems like a certain bust (won’t repeat BABIP ) at #3 but the remainder of potential #3s all seem to have their own yokes to carry.
If Donaldson is available at #20 he’s a great buy.
I wouldn’t say a bust, overpriced at number 3, certainly, but not a bust. Even with regressions in batting average and on-base percentage, his power isn’t going anywhere. He’s still a really good bet for 30+ homeruns while likely having eligibility for both corner infield spots.
yes, bust is incorrect, disappointment more likely.
Absolutely. He is young, healthy and has big power. Plus it is not like Riley is going to hit .220 I think he does deserve # 3.
I would put Donaldson even lower. Age, injury risk, decline in ability. To me he has a decent chance of being a bust this year. But I guess because 3rd base is poor, he may get picked higher, just not by me.
I agree with Donaldson being an awesome value at #20. Last year he posted an elite batted ball profile and general plate discipline approach consistent with his best years – the dominant results like 2019 didn’t follow but lends to believe there is still another excellent season left in the tank. Health is always a concern with a player in his mid to late 30’s, but if Donaldson is completely healthy he’s still one of the 3 or 4 best hitters at the position, and a must-start in all formats. That sounds like a guy who should go in the top 75 picks.
Urshela is ranked over Donaldson. Wow.
Difficult position. Some comments I have:
Is Longorias statcast improvements sustainable and if NL gets DH is he a top 15 guy?
Does Rendon bounce back? Are we really ready to give up on him? I say yes he bounces.
Is Biggio totally done? Yuck.
Candelario looks like another one to bump up some career best statcast numbers with better lineup and unlike Turner and Longoria no health questions?
After the top 2 the next 7 are a tier…?
What am I missing about Adelberto Mondesi?
he racks up huge, outlier SB numbers for this era. his BABIP and power have fluctuated a little the past few years, but he’s putting up like 60 SBs per 600 PA. if the power and BABIP come together, closely related to him staying healthy, he’s put up like a .275/25HR/60SB season
Yep. He’s a great fantasy player and a terribly uninspiring real world one.
He’s never gonna have a .275 average with his 30% K% unless he gets really lucky in terms of BABIP
Exactly. He is another injury waiting to happen who will hit .250
Mondesi: very high ceiling. Very low floor. He could hit 270 with a bunch of HRs and a ton of SB; he could hit 220 and play 80 games. He’s a real boom/bust pick–I prefer to win my league with smart drafting in later rounds than to count on Mondesi.
Lotta dudes here that are much better IRL than in fantasy, for OBP/defense reasons. Still, there’s some breakout/return to form hope farther down this list; Suarez’ dingers might return, Moncada might finally explode, the young trio of Jones/Burger/Jung are all about ready and just need major league PAs.
Wander Franco is eligible at 3B in my league. Where would he rank here?
Would have to say 7 to 9 area, right? He isn’t stealing bases any more, so need the high average and some continued power. Maybe a bit higher in an OBP league?
Anymore? He’s played half a season in the bigs and he’s 20.
I mean that his poor steal percentage caused the Rays to have him slow down/stop the attempts.
How much of a boost would Chapman get if he were traded? Say he starts the season in Toronto for example
I love positions like this without consensus. So much reasonable disagreement can be made from 3 to 20. My prediction: Bregman will likely move up in the rankings as the season gets closer. He’s in his prime, and his projections will justify him often going 3rd at the position.
I think the tempered expectations are justified. Arguably no player was hurt by the de-juiced ball more than Bregman. For the first time in his career he didn’t massively outperform his Statcast xwOBA, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence. There’s a reasonable expectation for him to bounce back from his injuries to be top-10 at the position, but I don’t see the top 3 upside any more. He’s never going to hit 25 home runs again, and he doesn’t run any more either.
I’m intrigued by him, too, but come out more or less where Rocket Arm sees it. He was a rabbit ball beneficiary so a ton of his fantasy value comes from factors out of his control. Needs a big AVG (.280+) so that depends on BABIP. Needs huge R/RBI totals which of course is team-dependent. Now, I see no reason they won’t remain a solid offense.
Yes, they’ve lost Springer & Correa in b2b seasons (we assume at least w/Correa), but Tucker covers the Springer loss and if they don’t replace Correa in the market, we’ll see if their farm can deliver something in the form of guys like Jeremy Pena or Pedro Leon.
Lindor I think really got hurt by the dejuicing too, I don’t see him hitting 30 bombs again
Tough ranking for Matt Chapman. I’ve never been a huge fan, but he had career extremes last season of Zswing (high) and Zcontact (low), as well as the lowest HardHit% of his career, despite above average barrel % . His BABIP was nearly identical to a season in which he posted much better numbers. Bounce back candidate despite a weakened lineup?
I consider myself a pretty big Chapman and this was the best I could do with the profile. If he gets back to pre-2020 K% levels, he can be a big rebound candidate, but it’s hard to project too much beyond where Steamer sees him (.220/27 HR). The 14 ahead of him all feel like stronger bets. I will get some Chapman across my teams bc of the potential to get right w/some health & trimming the Ks, though.
Chapman felt blows recovering from hip surgery last offseason. Bad habits and limitations often get wrapped up and forgotten. It seems there are two major shifts since 2019. Groundball and line drives are hit weaker (as Statcast EV data supports) suggests that he hasn’t regained the plate coverage 2019 Matt Chapman had. A loss of plate coverage could help explain issues with strikeouts and why his swingstrike% has jumped. Any positive movement Chapman experiences cutting into his K% will instantly boost his value. His flyball power is still intact so he can manage with his improved Barrel%.
This doesn’t mean he is going to bounce back. But a full offseason to work out bad habits should be a good storyline to buy. Any reports in the spring that help support this train of thought should help remove some of the risks.
Does this take into account extra ABs for guys like Davis who might also get DH reps?
You can’t assume the DH is coming to the NL until it actually happens.
I don’t even know we’ll get games next year, let alone a DH in the NL.
Probably more realistic to assume a DH will be in the NL than Alberto Mondesi will play 50 games .
I’ll be honest, I don’t get how anyone from 10-15 is ahead of Justin Turner. That’s a head scratcher. You can say Turner is old and hurt sometimes, but he’s coming off another excellent year with 600+ PAs, and the guys in the 10-15 range were nowhere close to his offensive output. And if you’re going to ding him hard for expected old guy injuries, then you need to ding Mondesi heavily as well, as his own team has publicly admitted that he can’t be an everyday guy for health concerns.
5×5 rankings are much more about floor and less about ceiling. Injuries are much more difficult to replace production due to the way stats are accumulated. In 5×5 it’s almost always better for a player to succeed on someone else’s team than to fail on your own, so floor production outside the top few rounds is important.
Regarding Turner, I agree he’s a nice pick as the 16th 3B who should be a starter as long as he’s healthy. The issue with LAD is generally not knowing when a player is going to get a random night off. You need to have a contingency plan if he’s out of the lineup, like another West coast 3B or a backup plan if he gets hurt.
Prior to Adrian Beltre, the last 37-year-old (or older) third basemen who got 400 PA and was even useable in fantasy was Chipper Jones way back in 2012 (and 2011 and 2009). Before that, probably Gary Gaetti in 1996-1998.
So a bet on Turner is a bet that he’s going to be one of the 4 or 5 most durable/useful third basemen at his age in the past 25 years.
It’s not impossible, but it’s not a bet I would make.
That’s good information. Turner should be owned in all formats because as long as he’s healthy he should hit enough to be useful. It would be risky to wait on 3B and draft him as a starter.
Its all age related but he can hit still. Good pick up later.
I’m curious if Elehuris Montero was close to sneaking on your list. Sure, the Rockies are a box of chocolates, but Montero did well in the high minors and I don’t think McMahon should be blocking anyone. Him and Nolan Jones seem like they could return good value if called up early in the season (Jones in an OF spot obviously).
Austin Riley looks primed to tank many a fantasy team in 2022. Guess we’re never going to learn on these high BABIP years.
A LD rate of 25% was good for 10th best in MLB so his BABIP wasn’t much of a fluke but definitely due for a slight regression. Even so, he likely still lands in the top 5 of 3B after the correction.
Some Luis Urias love!
I kinda hope Toro gets a shot with a full-time job this year. If he works out he could be a good across-the-board contributor with a solid BA.
Ke’Bryan Hayes at #10. He’ll have to steal 25 bases. Good luck with that. You want $50 for this ?