Archive for Featured

In an attempt to improve what I find most challenging when constructing my fantasy roster, I found a league this season that could help me address those shortcomings, with the hope that it would also inform my approach in future seasons across all formats. This was joining a league with scoring that heavily favored relievers, with increased points for saves and holds, and minus points for blown saves.

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With the season over, we now look back before we first look back and see what we got right and what we got wrong. Today, we begin by looking at my Bold Predictions article from March. Spoiler Alert: It did not go great. 

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It’s bold prediction review time! Refresh your memory with my original theses driving these predictions.

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David Banks-Imagn Images

Here is my bold predictions piece from March, but let’s dive right into the recap:

1. The baby gloves come off, and the Nationals allow James Wood to break the MLB strikeout record.

Right idea, wrong player.

Wood ended up with just 179 K this season after missing most of August.

Colson Montgomery stepped up with 227 K to beat the previous high held by Mark Reynolds by four strikeouts.

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Over a fantasy season, it’s hard to trace results back to the decisions or actions you took that led to that result. We take so many actions from keepers (if your league has them), to the draft, to trades, to FAAB or waiver moves, to lineup decisions, that parsing what mattered and what didn’t can be impossible.

Instead, I find it is more productive to evaluate things the other direction – look at decisions you made or actions you took, determine how they impacted your final results, and then decide if you did something right and repeatable or wrong and avoidable. That is how I started the analysis of my trade for Tarik Skubal. And that’s why I am diving into my bullpen in Ottoneu League 1.

I felt I had a strong team, with a good lineup and a top-tier rotation. I finished 4th. That’s not terrible – we pay out the top four spots and I still get bragging rights over eight managers, many of whom I have competed with for nearly two decades. But it isn’t what I hoped. And the bullpen might be why.

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Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Overall

• Lance Brozdowski discussing eight breakouts. Twenty-four minutes well spent.

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10/1/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
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• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube
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NFBC POSTSEASON CONTEST

Closer Talk

• Joe’s Win
• Who Carried Joe?
• Key Tenets for Success
• Filling Out a Lineup

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Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

With the regular season over, it’s time to find out how the hitters who didn’t let an injury heal and played through the pain performed. Whether these hitters cause permanent damage to their bodies or pick up bad habits (detailed reasoning on why this occurs), they continue to underperform their next season’s projections. Besides collecting the names myself, I’ve asked for some help (article) for this past season’s list. Read the rest of this entry »

I have a fairly small portfolio of fantasy teams – prior to joining the staff here at RotoGraphs I had pared down over the years because managing daily teams on different platforms is a bit of a slog. Going into next year, I might explore joining some leagues with weekly adds. But in any case, I’d rate my season as successful overall.

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In my first article for Rotographs, I dug into a premise that always puzzles me at the beginning of the season. What do you do with the seemingly low end starting pitchers who are off to hot starts? 

I noted how sometimes, they can stay hot for the full season, citing Rick Porcello’s Cy Young season in 2016 and more recently, 2025 standouts like Kris Bubic, Shane Smith, and Tyler Mahle. 

I set the parameters for this type of pitcher around a variety of the statistics that fantasy managers look to when determining the staying power of a starting pitcher. 

“We want to find pitchers who are suppressing runs and locating, but who may be considered unsustainable due to underlying metrics, specifically around the GIF making Stuff+ and K-BB%. To capture this, we’ll focus on pitchers with Stuff+ below 100, a Location+ above 100, a K-BB% of 17% or less, and an ERA below 3.00.”

Here was that list as of May 1 this season. 

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