I know the headline is a little alarmist, but now that I have your attention, I’m here to let you know that not all of these struggles are cause for alarm. 

In this article, I’ll take a look at a handful of starting pitchers who struggled to maintain their strong starts to the season, sorting by the biggest ERA increases from April to May amongst those with at least 25 innings pitched. Based on underlying numbers and vibes, I’ll bucket these starters into guys you should look to cut or trade and who to buy or hold. 

And remember, try not to worry just because a guy shows up on this list! For the most part, to have a big gap in ERA between any two months, you need to have done pretty well during one of them. 

So here we go.  Read the rest of this entry »

• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 4/27 | next: wk of 6/1)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

The whole 1-x pack is pretty scary, but not without merit to take a shot in spots. Nelson, Ginn, and Bello draw difficult matchups, Jones is working back from injury, while Giolito and Crow have solid matchups but shaky skills. Anyone else y’all want to discuss? Drop a comment!

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Last week, we covered starting pitchers who lost stuff and command. This week we will examine three starting pitchers who have gained stuff and command. We’ll look at what contributed to the gains to determine if we should buy, sell or hold.

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For most of us, April results are not that much more meaningful than the results we get from our teams during the rest of the season. For those of you who play in Cutline leagues, all the power to ‘ya. 

But in practice, April results can have a bit of an outsized impact on fantasy teams. For one, early season-ending injuries are of course more impactful than similar injuries that happen later, since you have more output to backfill. 

And April hot starts can sometimes be parlayed into months of strong performance. That Week 1 streamer who turns into one of the stalwarts of your otherwise lackluster rotation or the top prospect who earned a last minute spot in the starting lineup out of Spring Training. 

We all know these feel good stories. We all know the other side of that coin, too. The early draft pick who limps through April with an inflated ERA. Or who Tatis’s their way through the first nine weeks of the season without a home run. 

In this article, I’ll look at the starting pitchers who have seen the biggest improvements between April and May, keeping things simple by sorting by ERA and K-BB% to trim the fat before getting into meatier analysis on some of the more intriguing arms.

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Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

American League

Angels

• Vaughn Grissom has been starting at first base.

Vaughn Grissom, who hit a grand slam and had six RBIs in Tuesday’s 10-6 win, started at first base again on Wednesday. He’s expected to get the bulk of the playing time there in Schanuel’s absence, although Oswald Peraza and Donovan Walton could see time there as well.

“For the most part now, he’s going to fill in and get the majority of the time over there at first base,” manager Kurt Suzuki said of Grissom. “But I could see Peraza or Donnie playing some first base, so we have options.”

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“You don’t know how to play first base value assets, Scott?”

“That’s right.”

“It’s not that hard, Scott. Tell him, Wash.”

“It’s incredibly hard.”

“Hey, anything worth doing is. And we’re going to teach you.”

Introduction:

By now, 25 years hence, Moneyball concepts are likely old hat to your average RotoGraphs reader. With the suite of technical tools available to the modern fan, it can be easy to forget just how powerful those insights can still be. Read the rest of this entry »

• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 4/27 | next: wk of 6/1)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

Big board of studs to choose from today! I’ll drop some comments in the morning.

• Meyer, like Davis Martin yesterday v. MIN, ate his first Dud (5+ ER) of the year after facing a team for the second time in a row (NYM), but it was a bad first inning (4 R) but he still settled down to go 6 and fan 6.
• Cole is all of 2 starts into his return so there may still be hiccups, but I just can’t see sitting him anywhere.
• This is the 10-start mark for Webb and barring an absolute gem, he’ll be toting some pretty mediocre ratios with his worst K-BB since the fake season (2020). He’s also staring down the barrel of WSH/CHC 2-step next week after this trip to MIL. I’m not looking to cut him, even in 10s, but is there a world where we skip the 2-step if this one goes south today?
• To that end, I should’ve slotted Peralta/Taj/Arrighetti, and maybe even Melton over Webb right now.
• Wish the Nats were giving Alvarez an opener again, but he’s slated for the traditional start and I’m still open to streaming him. Even with just 1 K in a meh 3 IP outing last time, he still has a 27% K rate on the year. He pitches backwards with his curve (33%) and slider (28%) leading the way over his fastball (24%) as he hopes to establish himself in the rotation. I wonder if a good start here could get the Nats to slot him for the 2-step next week (projections currently have Mikolas getting it).
• Melton is a fave of mine who I was really excited about in the offseason before the injury. I’m not thrown by his hideous 0% K-BB through 2 starts after just 1 K in a 7-IP gem at CHW (1 ER, 1 BB, 6 H), but obviously he has to drastically improve there to be fantasy viable. I believe he will and would gladly roster him anywhere right now. Let’s check in after another handful of starts to see where the strikeouts sit and decide if he’s an all-formats play for the long haul.

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Hot Right Now (HRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on popular players currently being auctioned or players who you should think about auctioning in your Ottoneu leagues. Even if you don’t play Ottoneu, we’ll be highlighting players you should be looking at in deeper and keeper formats. In this feature, we will break down players into two sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP over the last 14 days who are also rostered in 80% of leagues or less.

The RotoGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

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It’s been nearly a month since I took my last look at batter xwOBA underperformers and overperformers, and a lot could change during that time. So let’s revisit the hitters who have underperformed and overperformed the most, determine whether it’s been a consistent trend, and decide if the hitter is due to perform closer to his xwOBA the rest of the way.

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Ewing had a day!

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