Archive for Featured

Did Hitters Bust More Often, and SPs Less, This Season?

Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Earlier this season, in the midst of Davis Martin’s ascent, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s slump, and after more than two months of Cal Raleigh’s big dumper of a follow up season, I wrote an article pointing to an interesting trend. 

Through May this season, hitters were busting more frequently than pitchers relative to their draft cost. More specifically, ADP was less predictive of hitter performance than it was starting pitcher performance. This goes against a premise analysts and casuals alike repeat throughout draft season, that “pitchers are riskier than hitters.” 

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The Little Engine That Couldn’t: Main Event Team Review

On the third Saturday of March, as has been customary for many of the past 15 years, I joined friends and colleagues in Las Vegas to draft live in the NFBC. Their Main Event is the largest national high-stakes contest – a 15-team standard 5×5 roto format with an $1,800 entry fee and a $200,000 grand prize for the overall champion.  This season, I reduced my FAAB leagues from 10+ to five to focus on content and time management/family balance. Before having kids, spending most of my Sunday updating FAAB content and working through my own bids was no sweat. Now, with two youngens, ages five and seven, and a robust youth travel hockey schedule, limited weekend time during the MLB season is mostly spent on producing content. For that weekend in Vegas, the Saturday NFBC Main Event was my only live draft in the Year of Brad Lord, 2026.

A few days before the draft, I set pick 14 as my sixth draft preference (KDS) after picks 1-5 and earned the 14th pick. I would have been thrilled to earn pick one or two to start with Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge. Sadly for many, those early first-round picks were anything but a gift this year. At pick 14 and pick 17 in the second round, I knew I would have the option to select two players I’d be happy with — Kyle Tucker, Gunnar Henderson, Fernando Tatis Jr., Junior Caminero, and/or Cristopher Sánchez. Since Sánchez was my only SP target in Round 2, I mapped out two contingency-based draft roadmaps: one with Sánchez, and one that started with two hitters. I also had a few precepts for this draft I wanted to stick by:

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Chad Young’s 2026 Bold Predictions: Recap

Colorado Rockies left fielder <a href=

Back in early March, when we were young and naive, full of hope and optimism, not yet beat down by the Tommy John surgeries and broken hamates of the world, I shared my 10 bold predictions for the 2026 fantasy season.

I sorted those predictions from “coldest to boldest” so I’ll go through them in that order here. I guess that means if I miss on the first couple, things could get really ugly, huh?

My goal in evaluating these will be to ask three questions: 1) was I right? 2) was this prediction helpful for fantasy drafters? and 3) do I expect to double down on this for 2027?

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Reliever Lessons from 2026

Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

In an attempt to improve what I find most challenging when constructing my fantasy roster, I found a league this season that could help me address those shortcomings, with the hope that it would also inform my approach in future seasons across all formats. This was joining a league with scoring that heavily favored relievers, with increased points for saves and holds, and minus points for blown saves.

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Justin Mason’s 2026 Bold Predictions Recap

Washington Nationals second baseman Nasim Nunez (26) slides into third base safely during the seventh inning against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park.
Credit: Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

With the season over, we now look back before we first look back and see what we got right and what we got wrong. Today, we begin by looking at my Bold Predictions article from March. Spoiler Alert: It did not go great. 

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Mike Podhorzer’s 2026 Bold Prediction Recap

Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images

It’s bold prediction review time! Refresh your memory with my original theses driving these predictions.

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Jeff Zimmerman’s 2026 Bold Prediction Recap


David Banks-Imagn Images

Here is my bold predictions piece from March, but let’s dive right into the recap:

1. The baby gloves come off, and the Nationals allow James Wood to break the MLB strikeout record.

Right idea, wrong player.

Wood ended up with just 179 K this season after missing most of August.

Colson Montgomery stepped up with 227 K to beat the previous high held by Mark Reynolds by four strikeouts.

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Don’t Undervalue Your Bullpen

Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Cade Povich (37) greets players as he walks from the bullpen before the game against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field.
Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Over a fantasy season, it’s hard to trace results back to the decisions or actions you took that led to that result. We take so many actions from keepers (if your league has them), to the draft, to trades, to FAAB or waiver moves, to lineup decisions, that parsing what mattered and what didn’t can be impossible.

Instead, I find it is more productive to evaluate things the other direction – look at decisions you made or actions you took, determine how they impacted your final results, and then decide if you did something right and repeatable or wrong and avoidable. That is how I started the analysis of my trade for Tarik Skubal. And that’s why I am diving into my bullpen in Ottoneu League 1.

I felt I had a strong team, with a good lineup and a top-tier rotation. I finished 4th. That’s not terrible – we pay out the top four spots and I still get bragging rights over eight managers, many of whom I have competed with for nearly two decades. But it isn’t what I hoped. And the bullpen might be why.

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Mining the News (10/2/26)


Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Overall

• Lance Brozdowski discussing eight breakouts. Twenty-four minutes well spent.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1541 – NFBC Postseason Contest Preview

10/1/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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NFBC POSTSEASON CONTEST

Closer Talk

  • Joe’s Win
  • Who Carried Joe?
  • Key Tenets for Success
  • Filling Out a Lineup

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