Writing about red hot chili players can be fun. When an otherwise mediocre Curtis Mead starts slamming the ball, that is objectively entertaining. Especially for the fantasy manager, players who are far exceeding their draft price or FAAB cost just give us a bit of extra enjoyment when they perform well. 

Junior Caminero is certainly red hot. And considering the 45 home runs he hit last year, in his first full season, which he finished as a 22-year-old, this really shouldn’t be a surprise.

Sure, the fact that he’s hit bombs in six consecutive games, and that the stretch in question started with a three-homer game, is wildly impressive. But it’s easy to forget there were some who doubted the phenom third baseman. 

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: mid-July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• I really hope we get the gem we deserve from Miz v. Burns.
• Miller has been absolutely electric, allowing so few base runners that the 1.4 HR9 isn’t hurting. It reminds me a bit of peak Robbie Ray’s approach – just hammer the zone and let your stuff do the work, homers be damned. Obviously a 99% LOB rate won’t hold, nor will the .216 BABIP, and probably not even his 30% K-BB, but he doesn’t need to stay this hot to be an all-formats must-start pitcher.
• Roki opened last month with a gem (7 scoreless, 10 Ks) before a June Swoon in his other three (14 IP, 13 ER, 12 Ks, 9 BB), but I can’t see skipping this one v. SDP. They were hitting a bit a week or so ago but now have 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their L5.
• Not only did Ureña have a shutout going into the 5th inning of his last start, but also a no-hitter before allowing 7 R on 6 H and 2 BB
• May got an extended layoff for back tightness after his Dud at KCR so I can see skipping this if you’re nervous. He is catching ATL at a great time, though, as they sit dead last vR in the L30 days.
• Cecconi hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER since May 2nd and went at least 5 IP in all five June starts. Just a 10% K-BB in that time keeps expectations in check which is why it’s still only a 2-x recommendation. He’s startable in 10s if you’re vibing with him but this CHW offense makes me nervous.
• Waldrep was up to 71 pitches in his last MiLB start on June 21st so I don’t think this necessarily has to be a short start if he’s doing well.

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Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

Note: Any noted rostership rates come from the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship, the same rates we use on the FanGraphs Player Rater. For reference, these leagues are 12-team Roto leagues with 30-man rosters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P) and weekly add/drops. This rate can be compared to other rostership rates found in this article.

American League

Angels

Astros

• Lance McCullers Jr. is beginning his rehab assignment.

RHP Lance McCullers Jr.
Injury: Right rotator cuff impingement.
IL date: May 19 (15-day, retroactive to May 16)
Expected return: July
Status: Made first Minor League rehab start June 25 for Triple-A Sugar Land, throwing three scoreless innings.

In his first rehab start, there was no pitch mix change, and his average fastball velocity dropped 0.4 mph. The key was no walks after a 5.0 BB/9 in the majors this season. He can build around his 9.8 K/9. He’s readily available (1% rostered), so he could be a free add if he contains the walks. Read the rest of this entry »

Thanks for coming out!!

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Back in late April, I discussed how I use ERA-SIERA and other pitcher metrics to identify lucky and unlucky starting pitchers. Since it was so early in the season, we were working with a very small sample. Some of the pitchers highlighted as incredibly lucky have continued to perform well (e.g., Justin Wrobleski), while others have massively regressed (e.g., Bryce Elder). From the list of unlucky starting pitchers, most have performed much better over the last 10 weeks. Let’s review those pitchers from April and assess a few new candidates using a half-season of pitching data.

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Not a great way to start your career:

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: mid-July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

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With three full months in the books, it’s time for some of us to move from active participation into reminiscing, wishcasting, and dreaming. 

Opening back up the draft board. Peeking back, ever so reluctantly, at your preseason rankings. The notes you left yourself to take a flyer on a handful of spring training stud pitchers, from Kyle Harrison to Johan Oviedo. The highlighter on your desk reminds you of when you used it to circle Kyle Tucker as a late first-round bargain as a bat in the middle of the Dodgers order. 

We’re coming up on July, and for some of us, if not the majority of us, the World Cup is offering a pleasurable respite from what has been a miserable start to the fantasy baseball season. 

That is to say, we’re getting the likeliest outcome for what we signed up for. The 50th percentile outcome. We weren’t going to win! But the point is to try. Chasing that little smidgeon of hope like it’s the golden snitch. 

In this article, I’ll redraft the first round for the rest of the season. To get there, I’ll meander back through the projected first rounders from the preseason, wind down into the current top performers according to the Fangraphs Player Rater, and finish with how I’d redraft the first round today, for the rest of this season, with all of the benefits of hindsight, a little foresight, and a gentle drop of dreaming on unrealized upside. 

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Two of the best predictors of future pitcher success – K-BB% and SIERA – tend to correlate well with each other. So when you see a pitcher outperforming their SIERA while posting a low K-BB%, you have good reason to expect regression.

The visual below shows pitchers with 50 innings sorted by the largest difference in their ERA minus SIERA.

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Hot Right Now (HRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on popular players currently being auctioned or players who you should think about auctioning in your Ottoneu leagues. Even if you don’t play Ottoneu, we’ll be highlighting players you should be looking at in deeper and keeper formats. In this feature, we will break down players into two sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP over the last 14 days who are also rostered in 80% of leagues or less.

The RotoGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

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