Archive for Featured

Understudies, Standbys, and Swings: Reserve-Round Targets, Part 1

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February 10, 2023
Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Time to begin our sweep through the major leagues, looking for reserve-round players who might be good enough to grab in a deep draft like NFBC’s Draft Champions (50 rounds, no FAABs). Some of these guys probably won’t play unless someone gets injured, but someone always does. Some of them are next in line behind shaky frontliners. Some of them had apparently-bad records last season that we think mask actually-good records. And some of them are starters whom, we think, the market just disrespects. So let’s have a look. This week, it’s the AL East and the AL Central on which we lavish our attention. The numbers in parentheses are the Average Draft Positions in the 53 completed Draft Champions drafts since the start of the year:

Toronto: We don’t see how a genuine contending team can keep Yusei Kikuchi in its rotation for a whole season. People seem to think that his replacement will be Nate Pearson, who is indeed a promising pitcher, but very delicate. His arm probably can’t take a lot of five-inning outings before it falls off. So our candidate is Yosver Zulueta (748). His control deserted him in the minors last season, but he was coming off a three-year hiatus (TJ/pandemic/knee surgery) and still did pretty well.

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Outfield Episode w/ Sara Sanchez

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February 10, 2023

The Outfield episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Sara Sanchez

Strategy Section

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

ATC Undervalued Players

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Third Base ADP Market Report: 2/6/2022

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February 10, 2023

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

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2022 Projection Accuracy: Hitter Rate Stats

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February 9, 2023

It’s time for another examination of projection accuracies while I finish up hitters. I will focus on rate stats along with a different look at the RBI and Runs totals. The results are just slightly different than last year and now the aggregators take the top

From last season, here was my conclusion on the rate stats.

Hitter Rate/Counting Stats

For the stand-alone projections, THE BAT’s stand out (I’d use THE BAT X). Just below THE BAT are all four aggregators.

As for the background on how I’m comparing the projections, it can be found in this article. Additionally, I examined the counting stat accuracy in another article. Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1138 – Biggest Risers from 2022 ft. RotoSurgeon

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February 8, 2023

2/8/22

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BIGGEST RISERS

Undrafted last year:

Drafted last year:

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2022 Projection Accuracy: Hitter Counting Stats

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February 7, 2023

It’s time to continue examining projection accuracy. Today, it’s a quick run through the hitter counting stats. From last year’s results, I came to the following conclusion.

Hitter Rate/Counting Stats

For the stand-alone projections, THE BATs stands out (I’d use THE BAT X). Just below THE BAT are all four aggregators.

This year’s results didn’t disappoint.

I’m not reposting all the background information that no one reads anyway. It can all be found in the previous playing time article. I’ll just post the results and then draw my conclusions. Read the rest of this entry »


Nicklaus Gaut’s 2023 RP Rankings

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February 7, 2023

From the shared draft boards of Twitter to the unruly outlaws in the Reddit commentsphere, closers seem to have gone scorched earth on the fantasy baseball landscape, turning us all into post-apocalyptic warriors fighting over a precious and disappearing resource. Saves remain concentrated at one end of the closer spectrum but are increasingly diffused amongst the rest of the population. All the while, the ADP tide rises. Chaos.

Cars on fire, people wandering the streets making nonsensical declarations like, “At that point, I felt like I just had to take Jose Leclerc at pick #92”, or “If Kyle Finnegan just takes another step forward, he’ll be a steal at pick #175”; Justin Mason was just spotted wandering the halls of FanGraphs with his head down, muttering over and over that he’s “totally fine with Doval and Lopez as my top-two, it’ll be okay…totally fine…totally fine, tot-…”. Read the rest of this entry »


Paul Sporer’s 2023 Outfielder Rankings

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February 7, 2023
Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

I’ve always found OF a tricky position because with all the superstars at the top, it feels deep until you realize that everyone needs at least 5 in the standard format plus the fact that some will be taken for an infield position where they qualify. In the drafts I’ve done so far, I start to feel the OF pinch pretty early as the foundational options really dry up and you are taking guys with real question marks in your OF2/3 spots if you wait too long. There is plenty of talent and you can definitely hit on those question marks, but if you want to feel good about your OF, consider early investments.

I didn’t list the two major catchers who qualify because you really shouldn’t be using Varsho or Melendez at OF in any circumstance. Their value is greatly improved by being C-eligible, so if you are using them at OF, you are using a sub-optimal lineup.

2023 Outfielder Ranks
RK NAME TEAM LG ALLPOS
1 Aaron Judge NYY AL OF/DH
2 Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL NL OF/DH
3 Kyle Tucker HOU AL OF
4 Julio Rodríguez SEA AL OF
5 Mookie Betts LAD NL OF
6 Yordan Alvarez HOU AL OF/DH
7 Mike Trout LAA AL OF
8 Juan Soto SD NL OF
9 Randy Arozarena TB AL OF/DH
10 Cedric Mullins BAL AL OF
11 Michael Harris II ATL NL OF
12 Starling Marte NYM NL OF
13 Fernando Tatis Jr. SD NL SS/OF
14 Seiya Suzuki CHC NL OF
15 George Springer TOR AL OF/DH
16 Luis Robert Jr. CHW AL OF
17 Kyle Schwarber PHI NL OF
18 Eloy Jiménez CHW AL OF/DH
19 Byron Buxton MIN AL OF/DH
20 Bryan Reynolds PIT NL OF
21 Christian Yelich MIL NL OF/DH
22 Taylor Ward LAA AL OF
23 Jake McCarthy ARI NL OF
24 Nick Castellanos PHI NL OF
25 Ian Happ CHC NL OF
26 Kris Bryant COL NL OF
27 Hunter Renfroe LAA AL OF
28 Corbin Carroll ARI NL OF
29 Tyler O’Neill STL NL OF
30 Andrew Vaughn CHW AL 1B/OF/DH
31 Brandon Nimmo NYM NL OF
32 Adolis García TEX AL OF/DH
33 Harrison Bader NYY AL OF
34 Anthony Santander BAL AL OF/DH
35 Wil Myers CIN NL 1B/OF
36 Jake Fraley CIN NL OF
37 Riley Greene DET AL OF
38 Alex Verdugo BOS AL OF
39 Steven Kwan CLE AL OF
40 Teoscar Hernández SEA AL OF
41 Andrew Benintendi CHW AL OF
42 Giancarlo Stanton NYY AL OF/DH
43 Lars Nootbaar STL NL OF
44 Cody Bellinger CHC NL OF
45 Masataka Yoshida BOS AL OF
46 Edward Olivares KC AL OF
47 Gavin Lux LAD NL 2B/OF
48 Whit Merrifield TOR AL 2B/OF
49 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ARI NL OF
50 Seth Brown OAK AL 1B/OF
51 Mitch Haniger SF NL OF
52 Austin Meadows DET AL OF
53 Leody Taveras TEX AL OF
54 Jeff McNeil NYM NL 2B/OF
55 Oswaldo Cabrera NYY AL OF
56 TJ Friedl CIN NL OF
57 Adam Duvall BOS AL OF
58 Mike Yastrzemski SF NL OF
59 Lane Thomas WAS NL OF
60 Oscar Gonzalez CLE AL OF
61 Jesse Winker MIL NL OF
62 Avisaíl García MIA NL OF
63 Trent Grisham SD NL OF
64 Brandon Marsh PHI NL OF
65 Christopher Morel CHC NL 2B/OF
66 Jose Siri TB AL OF
67 Randal Grichuk COL NL OF
68 Chris Taylor LAD NL 2B/OF
69 Akil Baddoo DET AL OF
70 Bryan De La Cruz MIA NL OF
71 Andrew McCutchen PIT NL OF/DH
72 Myles Straw CLE AL OF
73 Joey Meneses WAS NL 1B/OF
74 Nick Gordon MIN AL 2B/OF
75 Max Kepler MIN AL OF
76 Enrique Hernández BOS AL OF
77 Kerry Carpenter DET AL OF
78 Jurickson Profar N/A N/A OF
79 Jarred Kelenic SEA AL OF
80 Trey Mancini CHC NL 1B/OF/DH
81 Kyle Isbel KC AL OF
82 Ramón Laureano OAK AL OF
83 Charlie Blackmon COL NL OF/DH
84 Garrett Mitchell MIL NL OF
85 Chas McCormick HOU AL OF
86 Austin Hays BAL AL OF
87 Manuel Margot TB AL OF
88 Jorge Soler MIA NL OF
89 Dylan Carlson STL NL OF
90 AJ Pollock CHW AL OF
91 Joc Pederson SF NL OF
92 Mark Canha NYM NL OF
93 Esteury Ruiz OAK AL OF
94 Tommy Pham NYM NL OF
95 LaMonte Wade Jr. SF NL 1B/OF
96 Kyle Stowers BAL AL OF
97 Drew Waters KC AL OF
98 Brendan Donovan STL NL 2B/3B/OF
99 Tony Kemp OAK AL 2B/OF
100 Michael Conforto SF NL OF
101 Brian Anderson MIL NL 3B/OF
102 Alex Kirilloff MIN AL OF
103 James Outman LAD NL OF
104 Nick Senzel CIN NL OF
105 Trayce Thompson LAD NL OF
106 Gavin Sheets CHW AL OF
107 Harold Ramírez TB AL 1B/OF/DH
108 Nate Eaton KC AL OF
109 Oscar Colas CHW AL OF
110 Aledmys Díaz OAK AL 2B/OF
111 Adam Frazier BAL AL 2B/OF
112 Juan Yepez STL NL OF
113 Victor Robles WAS NL OF
114 Michael Brantley HOU AL OF/DH
115 Michael Toglia COL NL OF
116 Bubba Thompson TEX AL OF
117 Aaron Hicks NYY AL OF
118 Joey Gallo MIN AL OF
119 Cal Mitchell PIT NL OF
120 Michael A. Taylor MIN AL OF
121 Josh H. Smith TEX AL 3B/OF
122 Jack Suwinski PIT NL OF
123 Hunter Dozier KC AL 1B/3B/OF/DH
124 Estevan Florial NYY AL OF
125 Tyrone Taylor MIL NL OF
126 Yonathan Daza COL NL OF
127 Ji Hwan Bae PIT NL OF
128 Eddie Rosario ATL NL OF
129 Matt Vierling DET AL OF
130 Austin Slater SF NL OF
131 Mauricio Dubón HOU AL SS/OF
132 Mickey Moniak LAA AL OF
133 Kevin Kiermaier TOR AL OF
134 Sal Frelick MIL NL OF
135 Conner Capel OAK AL OF
136 Marcell Ozuna ATL NL OF/DH
137 Josh Lowe TB AL OF
138 Brad Miller TEX AL 3B/OF/DH
139 Jarren Duran BOS AL OF
140 Alek Thomas ARI NL OF
141 Jo Adell LAA AL OF
142 Trevor Larnach MIN AL OF
143 Chad Pinder CIN NL OF
144 Nick Maton DET AL OF
145 Vidal Bruján TB AL 2B/OF
146 Ceddanne Rafaela BOS AL OF
147 Corey Dickerson WAS NL OF/DH
148 Colton Cowser BAL AL OF
149 Will Brennan CLE AL OF
150 Alex Call WAS NL OF
20 gm qualification; 5×5 Roto; Blue indicates new tier

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1137 – 2023 AL Reliever Preview

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February 6, 2023

2/6/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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AL RP PREVIEW

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Mining the News (2/6/23)

by
February 6, 2023
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

American League

Mariners

• The health reports for Andrés Muñoz and Paul Sewald are encouraging.

The most important question in the pen will be whether Andrés Muñoz and Paul Sewald ready to go after offseason surgeries. Dipoto gave encouraging reports on both – Muñoz is out of a walking boot and started a throwing program two weeks ago, while Sewald has had multiple throwing sessions. He anticipates both “being ready to throw in games in Arizona.”

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