Third Base ADP Market Report: 2/6/2022

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

None

 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Max Muncy (+18.5)- See the article in this series on second basemen. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Ke’Bryan Hayes (-21.11)- I am a little surprised to see Hayes drop because he has been a darling of the fantasy industry since his initial call up. However, he has struggled to show the power that he did in that initial call up and he has dealt with a number of injuries. While I do not mind the discounted price, I don’t know that we see a big jump in his power because of his five degree launch angle. The speed and contact abilities keep him interesting, but the ceiling isn’t as high as it used to seem. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Justin Turner (+79.25)- Turner has risen a ton since signing in Boston which is a bit surprising, but his ADP had been depressed because of being a free agent for so long. Boston is a pretty nice landing spot for him because he should play every day and most of those games will be at DH which could keep him on the field more than he was last year. After a slow start to his season last year, he hit .318 from August on and while he is no longer a stud, he tends to be overlooked because of his age. 

Yandy Diaz (+37.38)- Diaz is who he is at this point, a guy with a ton of power that he can’t unlock because of his low launch angle. That being said, he hits for a good average and if he ever does raise that launch angle, watch out. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Josh Rojas (-35.85)- See the article in this series on second basemen. 

Josh Jung (-16.63)- I am a little surprised to see Jung drop but I think his strikeout numbers in 2022 are scaring people a little. However, I think people are forgetting that he had a major shoulder injury in spring training that was supposed to end his season before it started, but not only did he play, he hit for the power we love to see. I am not super worried about the approach because it has been so good prior to the injury. I was already in on him and I am loving being able to get him at a discount. 

Anthony Rendon (-22.85)- I get why Rendon is dropping because I don’t even know what he is at this point in his career. It sounds like he is finally healthy for the first time in a few years, but at 32, can we expect him to play a full season and is the power we need from him still there? Too many questions for me to draft him even at a discount. 

Jordan Walker (-12.3)- Walker’s slip in the ADP will be short lived. I think there is a good chance that he makes the Opening Day roster for the Cardinals with the struggles of Carlson to hit, O’Neill to stay healthy, and Yepez to play defense. I had a really interesting podcast with Matt Thompson about it last month. He has been a monster at every step through the minor leagues and could force his way up pretty easily this spring. If he does, he will end up being a top 50-75 pick in short order. 

DJ LeMahieu (-23.71)- See the article in this series on first basemen.

Jon Berti (-33.75)- See the article in this series on second basemen. 

Luis Rengifo- (-33.75)- Rengifo is falling after all of the Angels offseason acquisitions puts his role in question. I think he still has a starting spot unless they add a shortstop, but he will likely hit at the bottom of the order to start the season which is disappointing because he ended last year at the top. I still think he could end up leading off, especially if any one of the Angels star players get hurt which is not out of the question given their injury history. He has eligibility at both 2B and 3B and will add SS pretty quickly. I don’t mind him as a fallback option at MI or CI. 

 

Others of Note

Jeimer Candelario (+81.05)- Candelario is rising after signing in Washington which is a plus in terms of park and finding a role that is full time. He should get plenty of at bats in the middle of the Nationals lineup, but that’s a really bad lineup in general. He is best for very deep leagues. 

Evan Longoria (+109.81)- Longoria is rising after signing in Arizona, but at this point of his career, he is nothing more than an NL or very deep mixed league viable because of his health and low upside. 

Spencer Steer (+29.78)- Steer is interesting because he appears to have a chance at full time at bats, but he really struggles with high fastballs which will be a problem. He does have pop and a great home park and could close that hole in the same way that Nate Lowe did last season, so he is worth a gamble late in drafts because of the upside and playing time.