2022 Projection Accuracy: Hitter Rate Stats

It’s time for another examination of projection accuracies while I finish up hitters. I will focus on rate stats along with a different look at the RBI and Runs totals. The results are just slightly different than last year and now the aggregators take the top

From last season, here was my conclusion on the rate stats.

Hitter Rate/Counting Stats

For the stand-alone projections, THE BAT’s stand out (I’d use THE BAT X). Just below THE BAT are all four aggregators.

As for the background on how I’m comparing the projections, it can be found in this article. Additionally, I examined the counting stat accuracy in another article.

Besides the batting average, I turned adjusted the projected counting stat totals to be in line with the actual paying time. For example, if a hitter was projected for 80 RBI in 500 AB but only had 250 AB, the projection got dropped to 40 RBI.

When comparing the raw counting stats, the projections that hit the playing time estimates the best, dominated the other counting categories. With this test, the playing time estimate is removed. And finally, here are the results:

Batting Average RSME Values for All Hitters
Name RMSE
Aggregator #1 0.030
THE BAT X 0.030
Preseason Guess 0.031
THE BAT 0.031
Post-Season Best 0.031
Paywall #2 0.031
Median 0.031
Davenport 0.031
ATC 0.031
Mr. Cheatsheet 0.031
Steamer 0.031
CBS 0.032
ZEILE 0.032
Depth Charts 0.032
Average 0.032
Razzball 0.032
Rotoholic 0.032
Paywall #6 0.032
Paywall #4 0.032
ZiPS 0.032
ZiPS DC 0.032
FreezeStats 0.033
Mays Copeland 0.033
Paywall #5 0.034
Paywall #1 0.034
DraftBuddy 0.034
Paywall #3 0.035

 

Batting Average RSME Values for All But the Hurt Hitters
Name RMSE
Aggregator #1 0.028
THE BAT X 0.029
Post-Season Best 0.029
Davenport 0.029
Preseason Guess 0.029
Paywall #2 0.029
THE BAT 0.029
Median 0.029
ATC 0.029
Mr. Cheatsheet 0.029
Steamer 0.029
Depth Charts 0.029
CBS 0.029
ZEILE 0.029
Average 0.029
Paywall #4 0.030
Rotoholic 0.030
Razzball 0.030
Paywall #6 0.030
ZiPS 0.030
ZiPS DC 0.030
FreezeStats 0.031
Mays Copeland 0.031
Paywall #5 0.031
Paywall #1 0.032
DraftBuddy 0.032
Paywall #3 0.033

 

Runs RSME Values for All Hitters
Name RMSE
Median 28.0
Average 28.0
Aggregator #1 28.1
Post-Season Best 28.1
Preseason Guess 28.1
Mr. Cheatsheet 28.2
Rotoholic 28.2
CBS 28.2
ZEILE 28.2
Depth Charts 28.3
ZiPS DC 28.3
Razzball 28.3
ATC 28.4
Paywall #6 28.4
ZiPS 28.4
FreezeStats 28.4
THE BAT X 28.5
Paywall #4 28.6
Paywall #3 28.6
Steamer 28.6
THE BAT 28.6
DraftBuddy 28.7
Paywall #5 28.7
Paywall #2 28.8
Paywall #1 29.0
Davenport 29.1
Mays Copeland 29.1

 

Runs RSME Values for All But the Hurt Hitters
Name RMSE
Aggregator #1 25.4
Median 25.5
Average 25.5
Post-Season Best 25.6
Mr. Cheatsheet 25.6
Preseason Guess 25.7
Rotoholic 25.7
CBS 25.7
ZEILE 25.7
ZiPS DC 25.7
Depth Charts 25.8
ATC 25.8
THE BAT X 25.9
FreezeStats 25.9
ZiPS 26.0
Paywall #6 26.0
Razzball 26.0
THE BAT 26.1
Steamer 26.1
Paywall #3 26.1
Paywall #4 26.2
Paywall #5 26.3
DraftBuddy 26.3
Davenport 26.4
Paywall #1 26.5
Paywall #2 26.6
Mays Copeland 27.1

 

Home Runs RSME Values for All Hitters
Name RMSE
Steamer 9.3
Razzball 9.3
Mr. Cheatsheet 9.3
Post-Season Best 9.3
Median 9.4
Average 9.4
Depth Charts 9.4
ATC 9.4
Rotoholic 9.4
CBS 9.4
ZEILE 9.4
Preseason Guess 9.4
THE BAT X 9.5
ZiPS DC 9.5
ZiPS 9.5
THE BAT 9.5
Paywall #2 9.5
Paywall #3 9.5
FreezeStats 9.6
Davenport 9.6
Paywall #1 9.6
Paywall #4 9.6
Aggregator #1 9.6
Paywall #5 9.6
Paywall #6 9.8
Mays Copeland 9.8
DraftBuddy 9.8

 

Home Runs RSME Values for All But the Hurt Hitters
Name RMSE
Steamer 8.9
Razzball 8.9
Mr. Cheatsheet 8.9
Post-Season Best 8.9
Median 8.9
ATC 8.9
Depth Charts 8.9
Rotoholic 8.9
Average 8.9
CBS 9.0
ZEILE 9.0
Preseason Guess 9.0
THE BAT X 9.0
ZiPS DC 9.0
THE BAT 9.0
Paywall #1 9.1
ZiPS 9.1
Paywall #3 9.1
Davenport 9.1
FreezeStats 9.1
Paywall #2 9.1
Paywall #5 9.2
Paywall #4 9.2
Aggregator #1 9.2
Paywall #6 9.3
DraftBuddy 9.4
Mays Copeland 9.5

 

RBI RSME Values for All Hitters
Name RMSE
Aggregator #1 28.2
Post-Season Best 28.3
Steamer 28.3
Mr. Cheatsheet 28.4
FreezeStats 28.4
Median 28.5
THE BAT X 28.5
Razzball 28.6
Average 28.6
THE BAT 28.7
Preseason Guess 28.7
ATC 28.7
CBS 28.7
ZEILE 28.7
Depth Charts 28.8
Davenport 28.9
Paywall #4 28.9
Rotoholic 28.9
Paywall #2 29.0
Paywall #3 29.1
ZiPS 29.3
Paywall #5 29.5
DraftBuddy 29.5
ZiPS DC 29.6
Mays Copeland 29.7
Paywall #6 29.8
Paywall #1 30.2

 

RBI RSME Values for All But the Hurt Hitters
Name RMSE
Post-Season Best 26.1
Aggregator #1 26.1
Steamer 26.2
Mr. Cheatsheet 26.3
Median 26.4
FreezeStats 26.4
Davenport 26.4
THE BAT X 26.5
Razzball 26.5
Average 26.5
ATC 26.5
Preseason Guess 26.5
CBS 26.6
ZEILE 26.6
THE BAT 26.6
Depth Charts 26.8
Rotoholic 26.8
Paywall #4 26.9
Paywall #3 27.0
Paywall #2 27.1
Paywall #5 27.2
ZiPS 27.3
DraftBuddy 27.4
ZiPS DC 27.6
Paywall #6 27.7
Paywall #1 27.9
Mays Copeland 28.0

 

Stolen Base RSME Values for All Hitters
Name RMSE
ZiPS 6.1
Mays Copeland 6.1
Mr. Cheatsheet 6.2
Median 6.2
Depth Charts 6.2
Post-Season Best 6.2
Paywall #2 6.2
Paywall #3 6.2
Average 6.2
CBS 6.2
ZEILE 6.2
Steamer 6.3
ZiPS DC 6.3
Razzball 6.3
DraftBuddy 6.3
Preseason Guess 6.3
THE BAT X 6.3
ATC 6.3
Rotoholic 6.4
FreezeStats 6.4
Aggregator #1 6.4
THE BAT 6.4
Paywall #1 6.4
Paywall #4 6.5
Paywall #6 6.6
Davenport 6.6
Paywall #5 6.8

 

Stolen Base RSME Values for All But the Hurt Hitters
Name RMSE
ZiPS DC 5.3
Depth Charts 5.3
Median 5.4
Mr. Cheatsheet 5.4
Average 5.4
Post-Season Best 5.5
Rotoholic 5.5
CBS 5.5
ZEILE 5.5
ZiPS 5.5
ATC 5.5
Steamer 5.5
Paywall #3 5.5
Preseason Guess 5.5
THE BAT X 5.5
Razzball 5.5
Paywall #4 5.6
THE BAT 5.6
FreezeStats 5.6
Paywall #1 5.6
Mays Copeland 5.6
Davenport 5.7
Aggregator #1 5.7
Paywall #6 5.8
Paywall #2 5.8
DraftBuddy 5.9
Paywall #5 5.9

Note 1: Both Mr. Cheatsheet and Rotoholic start with a heavy dose of aggregated projections.

Note 2: CBS and ZEILE got the exact same RMSE values on every comparision.

Sigh … again the Wisdom of the Crowds rules as the aggregators just continue to crush the stand-alone systems. The “perfected” aggregators (ATC and Aggregator #1) didn’t perform as well as simple averages. I believe the reason behind this failure is that stand-alone projections are constantly making changes. The perfect mix from the previous season isn’t the perfect mix this season. Just knowing a few projection creators are trying their best should be enough to include them and create a competitive aggregate.

There are a few examples of when the aggregates don’t (e.g. Steamer/Razzball with home runs) come out on top, but there is almost no reason to not use some three-system combination for the rate stats. Time could then be focused on better playing time estimates. I’m not sure which systems to recommend so I ran one more test on Runs and RBI.

I wanted to focus on hitters with similar playing time projections to the actual results. In this case, 88 players had their average playing time within 50 AB of the actual results. I wanted to see if any standalone systems perform better at guessing these two stats. Or is projecting Runs and RBI a fool’s errand?

 

Runs RSME Values for Hitters with Similar Playing Time Estimates
Name RMSE
Mr. Cheatsheet 12.1
THE BAT 12.4
THE BAT X 12.5
ATC 12.5
Median 12.6
Post-Season Best 12.7
Aggregator #1 13.0
Average 13.0
Preseason Guess 13.1
Rotoholic 13.2
CBS 13.2
ZEILE 13.2
FreezeStats 13.6
Paywall #4 13.7
DraftBuddy 13.7
ZiPS 14.1
Depth Charts 14.2
Steamer 14.2
Razzball 14.3
Paywall #5 14.4
ZiPS DC 14.8
Davenport 14.8
Paywall #1 14.9
Paywall #3 15.2
Paywall #2 15.4
Paywall #6 15.5
Mays Copeland 19.8

 

RBI RSME Values for Hitters with Similar Playing Time Estimates
Name RMSE
Mr. Cheatsheet 12.1
THE BAT 12.4
THE BAT X 12.5
ATC 12.5
Median 12.6
Post-Season Best 12.7
Aggregator #1 13.0
Average 13.0
Preseason Guess 13.1
Rotoholic 13.2
CBS 13.2
ZEILE 13.2
FreezeStats 13.6
Paywall #4 13.7
DraftBuddy 13.7
ZiPS 14.1
Depth Charts 14.2
Steamer 14.2
Razzball 14.3
Paywall #5 14.4
ZiPS DC 14.8
Davenport 14.8
Paywall #1 14.9
Paywall #3 15.2
Paywall #2 15.4
Paywall #6 15.5
Mays Copeland 19.8

There will be some bias with these results because those who performed better in the playing time estimates will have an edge. That said THE BATs are the best standalone systems with ZiPS, Steamer/Razzball, and Davenport performing better than the paid options.

Going forward, the three best options I’d recommend are:

  1. Use one of the publicly available aggregators like Mr. Cheatsheet, ZEILE, or ATC. The one item I would insure is that the playing time is an aggregate and not a single user input.
  2. Use THE BAT X with an aggregated playing time. Currently, THE BAT X is using ATC’s playing time estimates here at FanGraphs.
  3. Create your own aggregate using at least three stand-alone projections. An average of the three of the better stand-alone projections might interest some people since they could know and understand the inputs. I know a guy who can help people aggregate projections. With the median value holding up, I wonder if the median of four values might be the right call. There is no way in hell I’m going back to find out this year but I think I might test it next season.

I’m done with hitters for this year and will start with pitchers.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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rudygamblemember
1 year ago

Appreciate the hard work on this! Very helpful.