Big Kid Adds (Week 6)

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While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Hitters

Travis Bazzana (9): While the 23-year-old rookie needed to be added, he was not a great fit for most teams. On the top end, projections have him as a 15/15 guy over an entire season with a near .220 AVG. That’s fine. For reference, here are his Steamer600 comps.

Great … a Connor Joe clone. Right now, Connor Joe (.617 OPS) is outproducing Bazzana (.519 OPS).

Brice Matthews (8): While Matthews’s 37% K% drags down his .213 AVG, he has 4 HR and 2 SB on the season. Additionally, he’s started in eight of the last 10 games. While he’s improved his Contact% 7% points, it’s still down at 62%, the fifth-lowest among batters with at least 80 PA. Even with all the swing-and-miss, he still has a .712 OPS

JJ Bleday (7): Bleday was a solid add for the week … possibly longer. He seemed to be taking over the strong side of an outfield platoon. And this week, the team was scheduled to face six righties, so a decent number of at-bats for him. And then on Thursday, he even started against a lefty.

So far this season, he’s batting .310/.412/.759 with 4 HR by cutting his strikeout rate from 27% to 21%. Additionally, his Bat Speed is up 3.6 mph (71.7 mph to 75.3 mph). The results have followed with his Average Exit Velocity up ~6 mph and Isolated Power up 250 points.

I was able to grab him in a few leagues at a reasonable cost. I suspect he’ll cost twice as much this upcoming week.

Pedro Pagés (7): It seems like every week a catcher gets hurt and another one needs to be added. This week, Pages gets the call after hitting two home runs over the last few games. Overall, he’s batting .228/.279/.380 with 3 HR and 2 SB. Additionally, he is compiling some counting stats with seven starts in the last 10 games. There is no breakout going on; it’s just volume play.

Andrew Vaughn (6): An obvious add with Vaughn coming off the IL. His playing time should be everyone’s biggest worry with the team loaded with 1B/DH bats. So far, he’s started in both games since returning. It’s tough to get any idea of his talent off three total games.

Esteury Ruiz (5): Ruiz started the two games before the FAAB ran, so people jumped at the opportunity to add the speedster. It seems like he gave Owen Cassie a break on Saturday, and Ruiz forms a centerfield platoon with Jakob Marsee. This week, Ruiz hasn’t started a single game. I’m guessing he’ll be hitting the waiver wire soon.

Henry Davis (5): Like Pages, Davis was just the next catcher in the pecking order. And it’s bad down there. Davis is batting .156/.253/.273 with 2 HR and 1 SB on the season. In my 15-team “Elite” league, here are the catchers available on the wire ranked by at-bats over the last two weeks.

That is UGLY.

Starters

Andre Pallante (7): These managers were getting a week ahead of themselves when Pallante has a two-start week at West Sacramento and versus Kansas City. Nothing points to him being close to a league-average starter.

Stat: Value
ERA: 4.34
xFIP: 4.56
Steamer ERA: 4.27
Bat X: 4.77
BotERA: 4.71

His 8 K%-BB% is the 9th lowest among qualified starters. I could see the two starts blow up in his manager’s face with some horrible ratios.

Christian Scott (6): I was completely out on the Scott bidding, but he could prove me wrong with his start at Colorado on Thursday. In his debut, he struggled with walks (5 BB in 1.1 IP), but didn’t walk anyone in his next five-inning start. In 53 career innings, he’s posted Pallante-like numbers:

Stat: Value
4.53 ERA
4.76 xFIP
4.40 SIERA
4.05 botERA

The righty’s problem stems from his inability to get out lefties. Over his career, they are hitting .310/.367/.520 against him (.167/.252/.314 for righties). He’s trying to use a change/cutter/splitter (major classification differences) to get out lefties, but so far, it has just 4% SwStr%. He needs weapon to keep them from teeing off on him.

I think Scott is a fine dart, but not someone to spend 15% of a team’s FAAB on.

Logan Henderson (6): Brewers: “Henderson is garbage”. To everyone except the Brewers: “Henderson is the greatest thing since sliced bread.” At least that’s how I perceive it.

In 33 major league innings, Henderson has a 2.43 ERA (3.08 xFIP), 0.88 WHIP, and 11.9 K/9. His combined 27.1 K-BB% is the highest among any starter (min 30 IP) over the past two seasons. Yes, there will be some regression, but he’s shown he can be the game’s best starter over a seven-game sample.

Now, someone needs to convince the Brewers to keep him in the majors as a starter.

Elmer Rodríguez (6): Rodríguez struggled in his debut with more walks (4) than strikeouts (3). Then he repeated the feat in his second start with 4 BB and 2 K. The Yankees reward his production with a trip back to AAA. He’s not ready for the majors.

Jake Bennett (6): Solid debut with 3 K, 2 BB, 60% GB%, and 1 ER over 5 IP. He was decent in AAA with a 0.86 ERA (3.80 xFIP), but it was from limiting walks (1.3 BB/9) and creating groundballs (59%), not striking out batters (6.9 K/9). He gets another start on Wednesday against the Rays, but he’s likely heading back to the minors with Sonny Gray coming off the IL.

Cade Povich (5): I don’t understand the demand for a career 5.14 ERA (4.40 xFIP, 4.52 botERA) pitcher. Even though Povich has a 12.9 K/9 in AAA, it comes with a 5.06 ERA.

Everything with him relies on the first pitch. If he gets ahead, he has a 2.98 xFIP over his career. If he falls behind, it’s a 6.01 xFIP. The reason for this is that he can’t throw his breaking balls for strikes and has to predictably come back with a fastball.

Relievers

Kyle Finnegan (8): Yes, Finnegan was the closer while Kenley Jansen was hurt, but Jansen came back right away. Jansen wasn’t even on the IL. I could see dropping a small FAAB amount to see if the move was permanent, but not $78 on Finnegan, who has a 6.6 K/9 and 6.1 BB/9

Rico Garcia (8): The bidding was a little more tempered for the closer rental while Ryan Helsley is on the IL. Garcia has already rewarded his managers with a Win and a Save this week.

Tyler Phillips (5): With Pete Fairbanks on the IL, Phillips seems like the next pitcher up for Saves. So far this season, Phillips has two Saves along with a 1.27 ERA and 9.3 K/9. While he walks a few too many batters (5.1 BB/9), so does everyone else in the Miami bullpen.