Mason’s Musings: Cutting The Cord

About three weeks ago, I was picking up my youngest kid from school and as she was telling me about her day, she mentioned she fell from the playground and landed on her wrist. This was not an uncommon occurrence as she has her mother’s balance and father’s spatial awareness. For example, a few days before, she had twisted her ankle chasing her friend around that same playground and was hobbling around for a couple of days before she was back to normal. When we got home, I took a look at her wrist and it was a tiny bit swollen, but she was able to rotate her hand, make a fist, and adding pressure to it didn’t cause any pain, so I was pretty confident it was just a minor sprain. 

Over the next two weeks, she played and carried on with life normally. Every once in a while, she would mention it bothering her if hit it on something, but it didn’t seem to be anything serious and she for the most part didn’t mention it at all. However, two weeks after the initial fall, she mentioned something to my wife about it and when I looked at it again, it still looked a tiny bit swollen. I thought it was still just a sprain, but decided to make an appointment with her doctor to get it checked out just to be sure. 

When the doctor looked at it, she said the exact same thing I had been thinking. It’s likely a sprain that is slow healing because she’s continuing to play with it and use it as a seven-year-old normally would. However, just to be on the safe side, she ordered an x-ray just in case. 

Well, as you can see, I was wrong and so was the doctor. She had a broken wrist in two spots and would be spending the next four weeks in a cast. She had been playing hurt the entire time. 

So, this left me with a difficult decision last Wednesday night when I got the confirmation on the imaging. With just five and a half weeks left in the school year and knowing that she was going to be on the IL for the next four weeks, I knew the right decision was to drop her to the waiver wire. Sure, she is a first round talent when healthy, but if the timetable is four weeks, then that is two-thirds of the remaining season and there could be setbacks or maybe her power is sapped coming off of the wrist injury. She might also need a minor league rehab stint and that would effectively end her season anyhow. Her mother was not happy, but when we are making tough cuts on our roster, we need to leave our emotions out of it and make rational, sometimes heartless decisions. 

Let’s apply this to some of the high profile players currently on the IL. The first thing we want to look at is timetable. How long a player is going to be out can allow us to use projections to figure out the projected remaining line the player will have. Next we need to figure out what the chance of a setback is. Some injuries are pretty straightforward and others are more easily reaggravated. Then we want to think about whether the player will reach the same level of player prior to the original injury. Most will, but some hitters may lose power initially or run less because of the previous injury. Some pitchers may struggle with velocity or command or control on their return from the IL. Once we have weighed all these things, we can make a more informed decision on whether to keep the player. 

Tarik Skubal – Skubal is an elite player so obviously if we have an IL spot available, we are placing him there. The original timeline was 2-3 months, but the updated timeline has him shooting for a 4-to-6 week timetable. I am skeptical about this, as it definitely feels aggressive. But if Skubal is back by the beginning of July, the projections call for three months worth of elite production. You have to hold him and pray that he will be back to his normal self if he does return then. 

Francisco Lindor – As of April 24, Lindor was expected to be in a boot for three weeks before ramping up baseball activities which means that he could be out of the boot in about a week’s time. I would expect him then to have at least a 2-3 week rehab assignment if there are no setbacks at that point. So at best we are likely aiming for a mid-June return with a decent likelihood for a re-injury. You are still holding him in most formats, but there is a risk that we don’t see him until closer to the All-Star Break. 

Garrett Crochet – Shoulder injuries are tricky. They tend to have a high likelihood of reinjury. He expects to be back shortly after he is eligible, so you are just holding and hoping that he will be back in a week. 

Ronald Acuña Jr. – Grade 1 hamstring injuries aren’t serious, but do have a fairly high reaggravation rate. Holding and hoping he doesn’t hurt it again. 

Hunter Brown – Brown has been on the IL since April 5 and is expected to throw a bullpen soon. If it goes well, then you should continue to hold him, but if there is a setback, it might be time to think about cutting him loose if you have other injuries. 

Edwin Díaz – Diaz is an elite closer when healthy, but he is expected to miss three months, if not more. There is some optimism he could return after the all-star break but holding him that long might be difficult. Any setback could end his season. I tend to not want to cut such an elite talent, especially at a position that has been so difficult this season, but it does feel like a wasted roster spot. 

Wyatt Langford–  Langford is without a timetable on his injured wrist after reaggravating it and being shut back down from baseball activities. He is worth holding until we have more information as he is supposed to be reevaluated next week, after resting it more.

Matthew Boyd – Boyd is expected to miss at least a month after tearing his meniscus playing with his kids. As a father, I empathize, but as a fantasy manager, I don’t think he has the talent level to hold on through this injury. Especially as an older pitcher, he may take longer to heal.

Jackson Holliday – Holliday broke his hamate bone in spring training and was supposed to be back within the first couple weeks of the season similar to Corbin Carroll and Francisco Lindor. However, he was healing slower than them and then had setbacks in the minors while on rehab. He resumed his rehab assignment this week, but we also know these injuries can sap power and the fact that he already had a setback is concerning. I think in leagues where you have tough lineup decisions, he is cuttable. 

Jordan Westburg – Westburg has an injured UCL and was on my Do Not Draft List during draft season. He is attempting the rest route as opposed to getting surgery which rarely works out well for players. He had a setback this week after feeling renewed soreness in his elbow. I would bet he is much more likely to get Tommy John surgery than he is to take an MLB at bat this season. He should be dropped in all redraft formats, if he hasn’t been already. 

Jasson Domínguez – Dominguez had a bad luck injury and will likely miss at least a month. His role is not super secure when he returns, making him a pretty easy cut. 

Gerrit Cole and Jared Jones –  I put Cole and Jones together for a reason. Tommy John returnees are often stashed by people because of their immense talent, but for the most part, they tend to disappoint those that do. Think about Eury Pérez and Sandy Alcantara last season and Robbie Ray the year before. They had good starts when they returned that suckered people in, but then would struggle mightily with command and control in other starts. It’s rarely worth holding onto or drafting these guys. Wait until the year after they return. 

Who are you holding and who are you cutting?