2/19/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow Our Socials

• Jaul Jporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
• Justin Jason | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host/Producer
• Joe Jorrico | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host
• Joe Jisapia | Twitter – Co-Host

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Fantasy Black Book

2026 OUTFIELD PREVIEW

Group 4

• Riley Greene 2:30
• Teoscar Hernández 9:00
• Jackson Merrill 16:50
• Steven Kwan 26:00

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Prospects have become increasingly important to winning re-draft fantasy leagues. Of course, they have always been major in-season acquisitions, but now they’re making their presence felt at the draft table, too. With more fantasy managers aware of the prospects who are likely to have an impact in a given season, the battle for their services has become much more fevered, leading some managers to stash desirable prospects for a month or two rather than try to pluck them off the wire once they are called up and risk missing out.

These guys aren’t draftable in every format, but I cast a wide net so that the list has utility across many formats and can be revisited when those players who don’t break camp on a big league roster are called up. All of them should be in the majors for a substantial portion of the 2026 season. It is worth familiarizing yourself with them now so that you’re ready to bid on the ones who aren’t draftable in your particular league.

You can find these players ranked on the 2026 Fantasy Rankings tab of The Board, along with my Top 200 Dynasty Rankings! Read the rest of this entry »

This list might have caused me more consternation than any other (important note: I haven’t looked at SP yet and that one is always painful). There are question marks up and down the rankings and the number of players who look like they could be sure-fire, high-quality starters but could also be high-risk busts is really high. Is the position deep? Is it shallow? Is it going to be easy to find a third basemen or will we all be dreading lineup decisions by May?

Read the rest of this entry »

As we move into the final weeks before the keeper deadline, it’s time to get our Ottoneu rankings out. Over the next three plus weeks, you’ll get regular rankings articles from me and from Jake Mailhot, as discussed in my rankings preview in December. I will post my 4×4 tiered rankings position-by-position, and follow up that day or the next with rankings for FanGraphs Points league. On the 4×4 articles, I’ll give some overall thoughts on the position, while in the FanGraphs Points articles, I’ll offer thoughts on how the position looks different for 5×5 and Head-to-Head leagues. Jake’s FanGraphs points rankings will come out the day after my 4×4 rankings. We’re starting with middle infield.

Read the rest of this entry »

“Don’t it always seem to go, you don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone.”

Joni Mitchell may not be a roto savant, but even she might agree that the best part of the fantasy baseball season is research-and-draft season. Every day, from February until Opening Day, is so incredibly thrilling – nonstop spring training news, draft rankings adjustments, and player pool deep-dives – there’s always some rabbit hole of research to go down. As we continue studying and gaining confidence in the fresh player pool and a new year’s ADP, more questions arise, and the more work there is to be done.

Whether in NFBC or best ball contests, high-volume early drafters subconsciously form bad habits in draft rooms. We get too comfortable targeting and drafting the same players over and over. Conversely, we avoid players who have burned us in previous seasons and those we have some subjective bias against. Rarely do we deep dive and reassess those players because we’ve already made up our minds. That’s why it’s crucial to explore every nook and cranny of a positional tier. We have all fallen victim to draft room paralysis, where a decision between several similarly ranked shortstops or starting pitchers becomes gut-wrenching when we’re on the clock. This preseason column aims to help with those tough calls. We will explore some of the most confusing ADP clusters, by position, beyond the simple “I need to boost my batting average, so I’m taking this guy.”

Let’s dive into these ADP pockets logically and systematically, reviewing four analytical components of the players within each cluster.

• Playing Time (and Role)
• Health/Durability
• Skills/Categorical Contributions
• Context of Team Offense

ADP Cluster 1: Second Catcher

ADP from NFBC 12-team Online Championships (OC), February 1^st to 16^th

• Francisco Alvarez, New York Mets (ADP 168.1)
• Gabriel Moreno, Arizona Diamondbacks (177)
• Samuel Basallo, Baltimore Orioles (182)
• Kyle Teel, Chicago White Sox (189.2)

The top of the catcher pool is more robust than ever, as early drafters are prioritizing at least one of the top 10-12. Punting outright is less viable than last season – there are no true sleepers (Hunter Goodman) or studly, late-round prospects (Agustín Ramírez, Drake Baldwin) this draft season. Folks in two-catcher leagues who don’t address the position early end up with low-floor, fungible backstops like Freddy Fermin and Danny Jansen.

This intriguing cluster of catchers between Alejandro Kirk (ADP 156.3) and Carter Jensen (203.2) is packed with potential fantasy profit and serves as a fallback option for drafters in one-catcher leagues. Alvarez, Moreno, Basallo, and Teel are being drafted in Rounds 14 and 15 of NFBC OCs.

Francisco Alvarez, (ADP 168.1)

It’s been quite some time since Alvarez has been fantasy relevant. He popped onto the scene like the Kool-Aid Man, mashing 25 dingers as a rookie in 2023. Since then, Alvarez has spent over 100 days on the IL, mostly due to freakishly bad injury luck:

April 2024 (left thumb UCL tear)

• Broke his fall rounding first base; Missed two months after having surgery.

March 2025 (left hamate bone fracture)

• Injured his hand on a swing in spring training on March 8. He returned one month into the season (April 25) and did not hit his first home run until June 8.

August 2025 (right thumb UCL sprain + left pinky finger fracture)

• Alvarez hurt his thumb on a headfirst slide to second on August 17. Just 10 days later, while on a rehab assignment, he suffered a pinky finger fracture on an errant pitch during an at-bat. Alvarez played through the pain in September, then had surgery on his right thumb after the season ended.

You can’t make this stuff up!

Alvarez’s thumb is fully healed, and he is back to mashing at Mets camp.

Per Laura Albanese of Newsday, Alvarez has lost “eight or 10 pounds by focusing on nutrition”. RosterResource projects Alvarez hitting seventh in this revamped lineup featuring potentially impactful veterans/newcomers Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, and Luis Robert Jr. Though Alvarez managed only 276 plate appearances last season, his 93.1 mph average exit velocity was three ticks higher than his 2023 mark. Alvarez rocked a potent 57.9% HardHit rate from June 1 to August 17, the day of the right thumb injury.

To summarize, Alvarez is a pure masher who is just 24 years old, in one of the best projected offenses in the majors. He will whiff his fair share (25.9% career) and won’t help in batting average or stolen bases, but will benefit squads in the other three standard roto categories (R, HR, RBI), which should be enough to earn profit on his reasonable price tag.

Gabriel Moreno (ADP: 177)

Moreno is certainly no beacon of health either. He has spent over 140 days on the IL since 2023 with various ailments to his shoulder, groin, left thumb, and right hand. Moreno is nearly two years older than Alvarez. Like Alvarez, Moreno’s career-high games played were in his first full season (111 in 2023). Unlike Alvarez, Moreno is known more for his contact skills (career 82.8% Contact rate) than his power (.123 ISO) and is typically targeted for that rare batting average contribution from a catcher. Only Yainer Diaz’s .279 is higher than Moreno’s (.278), among backstops with at least 1,000 plate appearances since 2023.

Moreno projects as the Opening Day cleanup hitter – a true testament to the weak state of the Diamondbacks offense. Moreover, Corbin Carroll isn’t a lock to be ready for the start of the season, and the likely five-hole hitter against right-handed pitchers is #oldfriend, Quad-A’er, Pavin Smith, who I hope does not read this column. With 450+ plate appearances, Moreno can produce 10-15 HR, 60+ RBI, and a plus BA, but his lack of power and his team’s offensive environment reduce his appeal – especially in the context of the other catchers in this range.

Samuel Basallo (ADP: 182)

We have a rare situation with backstops in Baltimore, with two among the top 15 at the position. Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo had ADPs within 10 picks of each other in the NFBC Draft Champions (15-team, 50 rounds, draft-and-hold) for most of the winter. Rutschman’s 12-team OC ADP is at least two rounds higher (149.9, C11) than Basallo’s over the last two weeks. Rutschman’s role and playing time in the top half of the lineup are secure, while Basallo’s will depend on several factors, including his production during spring training and early in the season.

The Jason R.R. Martinez Effect is real, as his lineup projections influence the early draft market. RosterResource slates Basallo to hit ninth as the strong side DH, though this Opening Day lineup is many weeks away from crystallization. We can use Basallo’s small rookie year sample (.165/.229/.330, 118 PA) as a reason to avoid him in redraft leagues, but that would be cherry-picking to support a biased argument. Basallo’s massive power upside in the majors is not debatable, nor is his long-term future with the Orioles after signing an 8-year, $67M deal as a 21-year-old. No matter how talented, all young prospects are works-in-progress, and that progress isn’t usually linear. Perhaps the best approach is to let nature take its course by buying into potential greatness and taking part in the journey. It has been said that cream rises to the top. Basallo is the riskiest of this cluster but offers the most upside and profit potential.

Kyle Teel (ADP: 189.2)

The Boston Red Sox drafted Kyle Teel with the 14th overall pick in the 2023 amateur draft, but they had to part with their prized prospect to pull off the Garrett Crochet heist. Rumors of the Red Sox attempting to reacquire Teel have been afloat this offseason, and their FOMO is well justified after Teel’s impactful 297 rookie-year plate appearances (.273/.375/.411, 12.5% BB). Teel has been labeled a “high IQ player”, which is quite common for catchers, but not always ones with such limited major league experience. Spring training roommate Mike Vasil can surely attest to it, as I initiate a rumor that Vasil saw 16 FanGraphs tabs open on Teel’s laptop.

Projection models don’t peg Teel for much power – at least not this season. His minor league ISO never exceeded .200, and anything over 15 homers would be a bonus. Teel’s earning fantasy profit would come from 1) proving he can hit LHPs to avoid being platooned, 2) maintaining a strong OBP to lock in consistent work in the top third of the lineup, and 3) the overall bolstering of R/RBI production because of an improved offense around him. He should chip in with a few stolen bases as well. Teel certainly has that feel of a ‘fun’ fantasy draft pick, though it’s a realistic possibility that his fantasy ceiling for 2026 isn’t very high, and that he’s a better real-life player than a fantasy one.

Recap

• Francisco Alvarez – best overall value (expect an ADP rise out of this cluster)
• Gabriel Moreno – poor team context; BA category help; high floor if no IL stints
• Samuel Basallo – highest upside; playing time concerns; typical bumpy rookie ride
• Kyle Teel – moderately high floor for the price; potential five-category contributor (light)

Hope you’ve enjoyed my debut! For the next installment, I’ll attempt to shine some light on a cluster of boring, late-round second basemen.

Today I’ll be live streaming my Bubba and the Bloom Auction League! It is a 15-team league on the NFBC and I’ll be joined by friends around the industry including Ryan Bloomfield, KC Bubba, and others!
Read the rest of this entry »

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

American League

Astros

• Nate Pearson had his elbow cleaned up and is behind the other starters.

Pearson also underwent what Dana Brown described as an “elbow cleanup” this offseason, putting him slightly behind the rest of Houston’s pitchers in camp.

Orioles

• Heston Kjerstad cleaned up his swing.

What Albernaz was alluding to was an adjustment made to Kjerstad’s swing mechanics since last season.

Kjerstad has abandoned his large leg kick, instead opting for more of a toe tap as his right foot lands upon his swing. It was a development that occurred as he went through offseason hitting drills. The move felt “pretty natural,” and it produced changes that Kjerstad thinks could help him better hit big league pitching.

Rangers

• Robert Garcia and Chris Martin are the leading closer candidates.

As of Day 2 of spring training, Skip Schumaker said that Robert Garcia and Chris Martin are the front-runners to receive the most save chances to start the season. Alexis Diaz could, but #Rangers want to see how he performs in spring games.

— Jeff Wilson (@JeffWilsonTXR) February 11, 2026

• Nathan Eovaldi had hernia surgery this offseason.

Eovaldi was the best pitcher on the best staff in baseball in 2025, posting a 1.73 ERA in 22 starts with 129 strikeouts over 130 innings. He was ultimately shut down in August due to a right rotator cuff strain, though he was working towards a potential return if the Rangers had made the postseason. That being said, he also underwent offseason surgery for a sports hernia.

Eovaldi said on Tuesday that he had been dealing with the hernia since 2024, but it was not a big deal at the time because it wasn’t affecting his pitching.

• Jake Burger took up Pilates to help prevent soft tissue injuries.

This offseason, that meant Pilates.

Burger’s wife, Ashlyn, is a certified instructor, but he had never considered doing it himself, opting to stick with the bench presses and deadlifts. But after a trio of injured list stints last season, two of which were for soft tissue injuries, he decided something had to change.

“For me, the biggest thing is being healthy and just staying in that whole groove throughout the year,” Burger explained. “It’s really hard to get going and then go back on the IL, get going, go back on the IL. For me, [this offseason] was about addressing the soft tissue standpoint. I really dove into the Pilates and did it three times a week.”

Red Sox

• Roman Anthony is expected to bat leadoff.

Cora hinted that Roman Anthony, who led off 27 games last season, might be penciled into the top spot this year, too.

“Putting pressure on the opposition from pitch one, that matters,” Cora said. “… He was amazing for us leading off. That means that he’s going to get the most at-bats of anybody, and he’s that type of hitter, so we’re talking top of the lineup. I’m not saying he’s going to lead off, but I like what George (Springer) did for Houston in ‘17. I like what Mookie (Betts) did for us in ’18, and I like what Roman did for us last year.”

Twins

• Royce Lewis worked on his pre-swing setup to help with his “pitch recognition, his swing decisions, and ultimately the quality of his contact.”

Isenhower believes Lewis can get back to the heights of 2023 and early 2024. He raves about Lewis’ bat speed and feels that by simplifying things, Lewis can find his old form. The primary focus of their mechanical work has been pre-swing: getting Lewis into the best possible position, consistently, before he even begins his swing.

By doing that, Isenhower asserts, Lewis can let his natural talent and bat speed take over. Being in a better position will improve Lewis’ pitch recognition, his swing decisions, and ultimately the quality of his contact.

White Sox

• Hagen Smith worked on his changeup this offseason.

Smith, 22, placed a focus on his changeup, a key pitch in his overall repertoire.

“I’m really just trying to work on the mechanics and kind of figure out when I was going good, what I was doing,” Smith said. “Kind of looked at the video and stuff like that. Really hammered away on the changeup.”

Yankees

• Ryan Weathers hit 98.5 mph with his fastball (high was 97.7 mph last season) …

Weathers flashed a 98.5 mph four-seamer, his impressive changeup and some deception in a live batting practice at George M. Steinbrenner Field that saw him face several Yankees hitters, including Paul Goldschmidt and Aaron Judge, whom he struck out once.

… and has been working on staying loose with a foam roller.

Weathers said he’s been assured “there’s nothing in my throwing mechanics that are really troublesome or worrisome. So, why do I keep having these weird injuries?”

Well, he said, he’s learned with the help of the Yankees to address natural tightness in his lower body — particularly in his hips and ankles. He said it’s going to be about “working smarter” between starts. He said he even wants to be extra prepared for when he’s simply playing catch. He’s become good friends with his foam roller.

• Amed Rosario is expected to play third base when facing lefties.

No. 14, Amed Rosario, 3B: Rosario was acquired at the trade deadline from the Washington Nationals. The Yankees then re-signed the veteran to a one-year deal in December. Rosario is likely to start at third base when the Yankees are facing left-handed starters. For his career, Rosario has a 120 wRC+ against lefties.

He would be taking at-bats away from Ryan McMahon (career 72 wRC+ vs LHP, 95 wRC+ vs RHP), who struggles against lefties. I saw some power upside for McMahon after examining his talent comps.

Rarely does a player have 30+ HR upside going at the end of drafts (if at all).

Another issue with the platoon is that the AL East is projected to have the 2nd most left-handed innings, so McMahon could get platooned more than other platoon players.

National League

Braves

• Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 could return in early May.

Anthopoulos says there is hope shortstop Ha-Seong Kim (right middle finger) returns in early May. Initial reports were he could miss 6-8 weeks. So, he's on schedule and maybe even slightly ahead.

— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) February 13, 2026

Cubs

• Cade Horton’s fastball is “sitting 96 and touching 98”.

Yeah, but [Horton is] sitting 96 and touching 98 in the middle of February.

This is right in line with his previous fastball velocities.

Diamondbacks

• Justin Martinez is on the 60-day IL.

• RHP Justin Martinez: Placed on 60-day injured list (recovery from right ulnar collateral ligament surgery)

The key takeaway here is that Martinez got the 60-day IL designation before A.J. Puk did. The team must either expect Puk back in the first two months or at least before Martinez.

Dodgers

• Brusdar Graterol’s velocity is down and behind in his ramp-up.

Righty reliever Brusdar Graterol will slow-play his ramp-up during Spring Training, manager Dave Roberts said Saturday, creating uncertainty around his availability for Opening Day.

Graterol missed all of last year after undergoing right shoulder labrum surgery in November 2024. He remained a distant possibility to return in ’25, but he was unable to ramp up fully by season’s end. The Dodgers thought he would be full go coming into camp, but Graterol wasn’t where the team expected him to be when he threw off the mound Friday.

“It’s still kind of the velocity’s not near where it’s going to be,” Roberts said. “So I think that it’s a slow progression. I just don’t know where that puts us. But it’s a slow process for Brusdar.”

Mets

• Kodai Senga touched 92 mph with his fastball.

Manager Carlos Mendoza was unusually upbeat when asked about Kodai Senga earlier this week, saying he took note as Senga flashed 92 mph on the radar gun.

Last year, Senga was sitting at 93.8 mph. It looks like he’s got some ramping up to do.

• Sean Manaea worked on the perfect arm slot over the offseason.

Over the winter, Manaea worked with Tread Athletics, a private pitching facility, on an offseason assessment.

Manaea, who said he feels completely healthy, revised his arm slot while working with Tread after things got too extreme last season. He liked the changes he made in 2024. Maybe too much. In 2025, he took the change to another level, going even lower with his arm slot. It didn’t work. He is closer to where he was at his best in 2024.

“It’s definitely cleaned up and feels a lot better now,” Manaea said.

Phillies

• Aaron Nola is NOT adding a new pitch.

“I can make my curveball into a sweeper,” Nola said. “I can make it go left a little bit more because of my arm angle. It just depends on if I use my thumb on it a little bit more. The more thumb I use, the more depth-y it gets. I’ve been grateful to stay healthy for a little while. The last thing I want to do is tinker with another pitch. I know it’s not a for-sure thing [that a pitcher will get hurt] throwing a new pitch. A lot of guys don’t. I just want to crisp up my pitches.”

Pirates

• Jhostynxon Garcia is working on his swing decisions.

“The main thing I’m working on this spring, hitting-wise, is swing decisions,” said Garcia, who had 75 RBIs and 21 homers in 114 games between Double-A and Triple-A last season but also struck out 131 times against just 45 walks.

He’s taken his newest assignment to heart so far, stepping in the box on Friday for a live BP session against Pittsburgh ace Paul Skenes. Battling one of baseball’s best pitchers is no small task, but doing so also gives Garcia early practice addressing his biggest challenge: Lowering his strikeout rate, which jumped to 26.8 percent last season.

Rockies

• Antonio Senzatela plans on throwing his sinker more.

But during recent informal sessions facing Rockies hitters at the complex, Senzatela has opened eyes with his two-seam sinking fastball, a pitch he hasn’t used more than 5.8 percent of the time over a full season.

Both of our STUPH models grade his sinker as below average. The results this past year were decent (10% SwStr%, 47% GB%).

• Tyler Freeman has a sore back and is not in camp.

OF-INF Tyler Freeman
Injury: Back soreness
Expected return: A week or so into camp
Status: Began running on Feb. 12 and started taking grounders on Feb. 13. Underwent an anti-inflammatory injection weeks before camp began. (updated Feb. 13)

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here. Read the rest of this entry »

As we continue our race against time (gotta get these in before you need to make final cut decisions!), Jake and I will turn our attention to catcher today and tomorrow. Catcher has been a weird position the last few years. Traditionally a weak fantasy position, it has gotten a lot stronger. But every year around this time, I feel like it is deeper than ever and every September, I look back at a slew of disappointments. And yes, it is deeper than it used to be, but that doesn’t mean it is all that great.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Ottoneu rankings push finally wraps up with a look at relief pitchers. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

• 2/16/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Updated tier placement for one player (green = moved up, red = moved down).
• 3/18/2026: Updated tier placement for 19 players based on 2026 draft results. Added Paul Sewald, Brooks Raley, Drew Pomeranz, Mason Montgomery, and Cole Henry.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Here are few more notes about my process:

• Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
• P/IP. Points per innings pitched is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating pitchers in Ottoneu but there are plenty of factors that will affect a player’s ranking outside of their raw projection. Injury risk, projected playing time and role, age, and future value are all things that need to be taken into account when evaluating pitchers.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected P/IP but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier.

Here are my general thoughts about relief pitchers in Ottoneu points and 4×4 leagues: underlying skills matter a lot more than a pitcher’s place in the bullpen pecking order. Chasing saves isn’t as important as it might be in 5×5 leagues where saves make up 20% of the pitching categories. Teams will generally use their most skilled relievers in the highest leverage situations which means if you target relievers with strong skills, saves and holds (and the bonus points associated with them in Ottoneu points leagues) will follow.

Relievers are also the most volatile part of your roster and they’re the most fungible players in the format. That means even if you invest heavily to build an elite bullpen, a team who spends $10 total on 5 or 6 relievers could outperform your team if they find the right mix of breakouts and sleepers. Be ready to churn through a bunch of relievers throughout the season as pitchers get hurt or lose their effectiveness. That process is so much easier if you’re not invested into a bunch of high priced closers.