Trea Turner’s and Francisco Lindor’s Unexpected Power

In 2015, Lindor perplexed fantasy owners by hitting 12 HR in just 438 PA. He was never much of a power hitter in the minors and scouting reports put him at below average power. He’s not been the only light-hitting infield prospect with unexpected power.

Trea Turner’s home run power was unanticipated with 13 homers in about half a season last year. Like Lindor, he never hit for much power in the minors and his power grades disappointed. Should owners point to Lindor as an example for limiting power expectations after an unexpected half season?

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With established players fleeing the south side of Chicago like their hair’s on fire — like any good rebuild, honestly — it’s a little strange that one of the vested veterans left standing is closer David Robertson.

If not perfect, Robertson has been perfectly useful over his first two seasons with the White Sox in the closer’s role. Despite the team only winning an average of 77 games in those first two seasons, Robertson has saved roughly half of those wins (71) with a decent 3.44 ERA (3.04 FIP), much more than a strikeout per inning (11.5 K/9) and a walk rate right around his career mark, though it was much better in year one (1.8 BB/9) than year two (4.6).

With $25 million left on his deal and the free-agent market barren for late-inning relievers not only now, but at the advent of the offseason, Robertson still presents a fairly decent value. It makes sense for the White Sox to cash that in for myriad reasons, not the least of which is the closer-in-waiting and today’s subject: Nate Jones.

Who? Read the rest of this entry »

Entering 2016, Liam Hendriks was one of my favorite relief sleepers. In fact, I fantasized in my Bold Predictions piece that he’d enter 2017 as an elite closer. And while the results are laughable in hindsight, you can understand why I was bullish on him.

Coming off an outstanding 2015 in Toronto, Hendriks entered a remade Oakland bullpen headlined by a formerly dominant but unequivocally injury prone Sean Doolittle. His other competition included renowned ball four-enthusiast, John Axford, rookie Ryan Dull, and a resurgent but Medicare-eligible Ryan Madson. All possessed as many risks as virtues and it seemed, given the lingering questions surrounding them, that Liam Hendriks’ big fastball, elite command, and strong ground ball rate should have put him towards the top of the queue once the inevitable arm injury befell Doolittle. So what happened?

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If you were inclined last spring to target an elite closer in your fantasy drafts, the 2016 season served as a cautionary tale as to why that might not be an advisable strategy the next time around. Several popular targets, most notably Wade Davis and Craig Kimbrel, didn’t quite deliver on their promise, while largely undrafted relievers like Seung Hwan Oh, Alex Colome, Sam Dyson and Edwin Diaz became reliable saves sources.

Brandon Maurer could be added to that list as well, though he won’t likely have the same appeal as the aforementioned closers. That’s because Maurer finished with a 4.52 ERA and 1.26 WHIP that would not only scare off ratio-conscious owners, but also signal his vulnerability to losing the closer’s role. After all, the Padres can also call upon lefties Ryan Buchter and Brad Hand, who had impressive 2016 seasons, or Carter Capps, once he completes his recovery from Tommy John surgery.

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The bullpen market is always a fascinating one for its unending volatility. In fact, delving into it this early might be a mistake just because of how quickly it can change, though in fairness a lot of the change occurs in season. We could still see trades (I’ll touch on one possibility here in a moment) and signings to shake up a few situations, but I’d say somewhere around 23-25 situations are pretty well settled right now. Here are a handful of my early thoughts on the market as it is right now:

The Wade Davis trade adds another stud

The Royals might have actually improved their closer situation with the trade of Davis to the Cubs as there is some risk attached to the 31-year old after a season riddled with injuries. Meanwhile, Kelvin Herrera enters the closer mix and looks like a bona fide stud. He’s coming off a career-year in strikeout (30%), walk (4%), and swinging strike (15%) rates and handled the ninth brilliantly in Davis’ stead, going 10-for-10 in saves (though he did lose two tied games) with a 2.35 ERA (all 4 ER in the two losses), 0.78 WHIP, 32% K rate, and 2% BB rate (1 in 57 PA).

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So according to Brad Johnson’s end of season value compilation, Brandon Kintzler lost fantasy owners $4.20 in value. But that’s not really an accurate way of describing his contributions to fantasy owners this year. Glen Perkins opened the season as the Twins closer, but made it just a couple of weeks before going down with a shoulder injury. The Twins scrambled to find a replacement and eventually settled on Kintzler, who did a fine job. He earned his first save on June 8, and from that time, posted a 3.40 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with, while recording 17 saves. That stat package isn’t worth much in a 12-team mixed league, but likely a couple of bucks from the time he was actually rostered as a closer.

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Projecting future closers is always difficult. We can use a number of different frameworks that factor in environment, talent, pitch quality, and arsenals, and still scratch our heads marveling at how relievers are used. It’s a tricky proposition given the number of variables involved. Add to that the changing nature of bullpen roles, it’s not inconceivable, as we saw with Andrew Miller’s usage, that a progressive manager might not use his best reliever in a way that’s conducive to racking up saves.

In fantasy, saves are expensive and the inherent volatility of bullpens can make chasing them on draft day a dubious endeavor. The Chacon Zone’s goal is to identify non-closing relief aces. Those pitchers whose contributions in strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP, despite low innings totals, are significant enough to offset the lack of saves that you’d receive by rostering a closer in his place. By banking on talent, rather than simply opportunity, we can identify cheap relievers not only possessing high floors but also high ceilings should they be thrust into a ninth inning role. Think Edwin Diaz from last year. Luckily for us, the new Splits Leaderboard, provides yet another tool by which we can (attempt to) identify these pitchers. By isolating performance in high leverage situations, we can not only identify talented relievers but those whose managers entrust them in the most pivotal moments.

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Happy Friday everyone! There have been quite a few updates since our last check-in so let’s get started…

• As expected, Aroldis Chapman signed with the New York Yankees. Along with some concerns about his off the field conduct, Chapman certianly will boost the Yankees bullpen. We saw this last year with the three-headed monster that also included Andrew Miller. Brian Cashman is still looking for a lefty in the pen and although he won’t find an Andrew Miller, the Chapman, Betances, Tyler Clippard and co. grouping should still be elite. The Yankees will give Luis Severino a fair shot to make it in the rotation but consider myself aligned with the skeptics. He has struggled to find a third pitch, he can’t consistently put hitters away, and navigating a lineup multiple times has been an issue. But damn does he look compelling in the pen! He’s currently far closer to starting games than finishing them but I like Severino in the bullpen for multiple innings, strikeouts and ratio help, if/when he ends up there.

Yankees Updated Grid: Aroldis Chapman // Dellin Betances // Tyler Clippard // Luis Severino (Sleeper)

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It’s too early in the offseason to put together an updated grid as there are too many open spaces due to both Free Agency and unassigned roles. However, we won’t let the Bullpen Report be forgotten this winter and once a week we will check in with updates around the league that will affect your yearly chase for saves and holds.

• With relief aces Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and in some respects, Mark Melancon still on the market, the Cardinals went straight for Brett Cecil locking him up for four years and $30.5M. Dave Cameron listed Cecil has a potential 2017 bargain and Cecil signed a more team-friendly deal than Cameron even projected. Seung Hwan Oh is entrenched in the closer’s chair in St. Louis but with Trevor Rosenthal working to become a starter, Cecil should find his way to some high leverage innings along with fellow lefty Kevin Siegrist. The Cardinals have a lot of starting pitching depth, so Rosenthal isn’t assured a rotation spot by any means but it does mean his days of pitching high leverage spots in St. Louis might be coming to an end. Relief roles are changing rapidly, especially during the playoffs and while it’s impossible to carry over Andrew Miller’s October usage to April, it is possible that more teams will have relievers for multiple innings and that’s what I would guess the Cardinals are doing here.

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Relievers are having a moment. It’s been slowly building for a while, but this year might be the crescendo. Zach Britton foolishly being left out of the wildcard game paired with Cleveland’s excellent deployment of Andrew Miller seems to have ignited something of a reliever revolution. Their importance – especially in the playoffs – has never been questioned, but the prevalence of lockdown relievers throughout many bullpens has changed their value in fantasy leagues, too.

Saves still run the show, but many leagues have incorporated holds as a way of adding value to studly middle relievers and some are just so good that it doesn’t matter if they’re getting saves. Eight relievers logged 100+ strikeouts and only Kenley Jansen was a full-time closer. Seung Hwan Oh had 19, Ken Giles had 15, both Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller had 12, while Kyle Barraclough and Brad Hand combined for one (it was Hand’s).

Today, I have five high upside relievers who could be closing in 2017 or be so good that they’re useful enough without saves. They are listed in order of likeliness to close:

Adam Ottavino

OK, we’re cheating right out of the gate a little bit. Ottavino was just starting to close for Colorado when he was felled by Tommy John surgery in 2015 and he reassumed the role in September of this season after a couple months in a setup role. He finished with the role and will likely start with it again in 2017 while the others on this list will likely need to leapfrog a guy or three to get there.

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