Betting Against Brandon Kintzler

So according to Brad Johnson’s end of season value compilation, Brandon Kintzler lost fantasy owners $4.20 in value. But that’s not really an accurate way of describing his contributions to fantasy owners this year. Glen Perkins opened the season as the Twins closer, but made it just a couple of weeks before going down with a shoulder injury. The Twins scrambled to find a replacement and eventually settled on Kintzler, who did a fine job. He earned his first save on June 8, and from that time, posted a 3.40 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with, while recording 17 saves. That stat package isn’t worth much in a 12-team mixed league, but likely a couple of bucks from the time he was actually rostered as a closer.

Sadly, the happy days are unlikely to last through 2017. At this point, Kintzler is probably going to open the season as the closer because his results this year gave us no reason to yank him from the role, and the Twins haven’t signed anyone who could potentially take over the job. But he owns a risky profile to trust with the game on the line in the ninth inning.

Kintzler isn’t your prototypical closer. Ya know, the one who throws hard and racks up the strikeouts. While Kintzler’s fastball velocity is just about average, a strikeout pitcher he is not. His 15.6% mark this year was eighth worst among qualified relief pitchers. His career mark is a bit higher at 17.4%, but he threw his fastball 88% of the time! That ranked third highest among relievers and fourth highest among all qualified pitchers. Throwing your fastball that often makes it difficult to punch batters out since the pitch typically results in the lowest SwStk%.

Oddly, his slider and changeup have been excellent in previous seasons, so he does have the secondary pitches to lean on to up the strikeout rate. But he simply didn’t. Instead, he relied on generating ground balls and hoping his defense could convert all those balls in play into outs. It’s a risky strategy.

Look at what happened to Jim Johnson from 2012 to 2015. Over those first two seasons, he posted sub-3.00 ERA marks en route to recording 101 total saves. But then his defensive support deserted him, his BABIP ballooned, and his ERA skyrocketed. Without the strikeout rate, there were simply too many baserunners.

The problem is that ground balls have the highest BABIP among the three batted ball types. Sure, a grounder can’t go for a homer so it certainly has an advantage there, but from a strictly BABIP perspective, it’s worse than a fly ball and could lead to those innings where the ball “seems to have eyes”, eluding defenders batter after batter.

The Twins defense is projected to be below average overall, and in the infield, their expected up-the-middle fielders are forecasted to generate negative fielding value according to our Depth Charts. That’s bad news for such an extreme ground baller who allows tons of balls in play.

Of course, he managed to post a 3.15 ERA, even despite a .310 BABIP, but that was partly because he posted a microscopic 3.6% walk rate. Think that’s going to happen again?

Kintzler does have the benefit of any real standout alternatives. Who knows how Perkins’ recovery from shoulder surgery is going to affect his performance and he’s also going to be 34. Ryan Pressly? No.

My money is still on Trevor May (who was a popular sleeper this year when the closer role was up for grabs), assuming he shows up to spring training in good health. The 5.27 ERA he posted as a full-time reliever was ugly, but that came with a fantastic 32.1% strikeout rate (with all four of his primary pitches generating double digit SwStk% marks!), and 2.90 SIERA. He still brings a starter’s arsenal, but with added velocity, all of his pitches enjoyed increased effectiveness.

Even if Kintzler does manage to hold the closer role for longer than expected, the upside is so low, he’s just not worth paying the going rate for literally one category. If May is healthy in the spring, I would speculate on him in an AL-Only league for a buck or on your reserve roster.