Early Thoughts on the Developing Closer Market

The bullpen market is always a fascinating one for its unending volatility. In fact, delving into it this early might be a mistake just because of how quickly it can change, though in fairness a lot of the change occurs in season. We could still see trades (I’ll touch on one possibility here in a moment) and signings to shake up a few situations, but I’d say somewhere around 23-25 situations are pretty well settled right now. Here are a handful of my early thoughts on the market as it is right now:

The Wade Davis trade adds another stud

The Royals might have actually improved their closer situation with the trade of Davis to the Cubs as there is some risk attached to the 31-year old after a season riddled with injuries. Meanwhile, Kelvin Herrera enters the closer mix and looks like a bona fide stud. He’s coming off a career-year in strikeout (30%), walk (4%), and swinging strike (15%) rates and handled the ninth brilliantly in Davis’ stead, going 10-for-10 in saves (though he did lose two tied games) with a 2.35 ERA (all 4 ER in the two losses), 0.78 WHIP, 32% K rate, and 2% BB rate (1 in 57 PA).

Herrera has always displayed skills befitting a relief ace, though his strikeout rates lagged a bit in 2014-15 before this year’s surge. He has consistently kept the ball in the yard with a career 0.6 HR/9 and backs his upper-90s fastball with a terrific changeup that has left him immune to platoon issues (just a 21-point OPS in his career). Off the top of my head, I think I’ve got him in my top five for 2017 with only Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, and Kenley Jansen definitely ahead of him for me right now.

Edit to add: I wrote this part up on Monday evening and then in my 50-round draft and hold that started on Tuesday night, I took Herrera in the 5th round at pick 75. He was the fifth closer off the board behind the three I mentioned and also Mark Melancon

Ken Giles will finally have that elite closer season

I know, I know… some of you are probably tired of hearing me and/or Jason talk about Giles, but we can’t deny the extreme talent. There’s no denying that he had a brutal April (9.00 ERA in 10 IP) allowing runs in six of his 11 appearances , but from May on he had a 3.23 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 88 Ks in 55.7 IP (38% K rate). And even that’s a bit skewed by one disastrous outing in September (6 ER in 0.3 IP against the Angels), but the skills were so evident that he eventually took over the ninth.

He went 14-for-16 in saves with a 36% K rate. He did have a 5.06 in that month and a half run but literally half of the runs were in that meltdown v. LAA.  The meltdown counts, we can’t just lift and pretend it didn’t happen, but I don’t look at one awful outing the same way as three or middle bad ones. He only allowed earned runs in six of his last 36 outings and 10 of his last 55 with the consistently elite strikeout numbers. I feel like I’ve been talking about him forever, but 2017 will be just the fourth season for the 26-year old.

Don’t ignore the superstuds who won’t get many SVs

Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller aren’t slated to close for their respective teams, but they are still elite fantasy assets. Both got just 12 saves this past season and neither will open the season as their team’s closer – at least not barring some unforeseen circumstances – but they are still elite arms who can deliver prime fantasy value, even in mixed leagues.

Miller was particularly insane last year and finished as the fourth-best RP on ESPN’s Player Rater while Betances was 33rd thanks to a poor September (9.64 ERA, 40% of his total ER). Both fanned over 120 batters, more than five qualified starters (Martin Perez, Jered Weaver, Kendall Graveman, Doug Fister, and Josh Tomlin). Miller’s 126 also topped a sixth – Mike Leake – and tied R.A. Dickey. His usage as a true fireman also led to 10 wins, more than 18 qualified SPs and tied with nine others.

I’m particularly interested in pairing one of these guys with someone like Rich Hill, who I don’t expect more than ~100 IP from, or to supplement a lower strikeout guy whose ratios I want on the team, like Aaron Sanchez or Tanner Roark to name a couple.

Daniel Hudson could nab the job in Pittsburgh

Hudson was recently signed by the Pirates to a two-year, $11 million dollar deal and there was nothing to suggest he’d get the closer’s job outright, but I think he could wrest it from Tony Watson and perhaps as early as Spring Training. Watson’s two month run as closer after Mark Melancon was traded didn’t exactly suggest he was an undisputed ninth inning guy. He went 15-for-18 in opportunities with a 3.86 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 23.3 IP, though it’d be unfair if I didn’t mention that four of the 10 ER came in one outing considering I’ve done the same for guys I’m in favor of throughout this piece.

And I’m not exactly anti-Watson. I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if he won the job out of spring and held it through the season, but I think Hudson is very much in the mix. The two just aren’t that far apart in skills and teams just don’t regularly use lefties in the role. Britton and Chapman are the only two lefties penciled into their team’s closer role coming into the season and they are two of the best relievers in all of baseball.

Watson doesn’t exactly struggle against righties, but he does have an 85-point OPS split for his career and it was up to 134 points this past season. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that Hudson has issues of his own, including the fact that he’s coming off a 5.22 ERA season. He had a disastrous month-plus run in the middle of the season that did irreparable damage to his ERA.

He allowed runs in 10 of 15 appearances and at least two runs in nine of them. The result was a 24.21 ERA in 9.7 IP!!! Hudson did have a 1.55 ERA in 29 IP before and a 1.66 in 21.7 after. His fastball average has been 95.9 MPH the last two seasons and he gets whiffs on all three of his pitches (a slider and change back the heater). Look at the skills breakdown between the two over the last two seasons:

Hudson & Watson Last 2 Years
2015-16 IP K% BB% K-BB% SWSTR% LOB% BABIP ERA FIP WHIP
Hudson 124.7 23% 8% 15% 13% 65% 0.318 4.62 3.69 1.38
Watson 143 21% 7% 15% 12% 81% 0.242 2.45 3.57 1.01

If the Pirates have a few tweaks in mind for Hudson to bring him some consistency, all of sudden the LOB% shoots up, the BABIP drops, and voila, a new stud closer. I’m definitely gambling on Hudson in deep leagues and could even see myself reserving him in a 10-team mixer. Obviously, Hudson could leapfrog Watson in spring and render all of this moot, but Watson is the presumed closer until we hear otherwise which will keep Hudson’s price muted. Invest.

Gamble on Nate Jones in early drafts

I specify the early draft part because David Robertson is very much on the trade block and could be moved this winter, rendering this “tip” useless. However, until that point Jones is going to be undervalued. Jones isn’t some buck who the White Sox want to keep from collecting saves that could escalate his value.

He’s a 31-year old (same as Robertson) guaranteed for the next two years, followed by three very affordable options if he continues to pitch at the level we’ve seen in his four seasons. Jones outperformed Robertson in every major category last year and will make just $1.9 mil compared to Robertson’s $12 mil. Even if Robertson stays, I’d speculate on Jones. He’s just better.

There are some hidden gems late

A lot of fantasy players prefer to wait on saves altogether because of the volatility at the position. I think the high end guys are worth the price because of their strikeout help, but I totally understand waiting. This year offers some interesting late-rounders in the field, namely Adam Ottavino in Colorado and Jim Johnson in Atlanta… yes, that Jim Johnson.

Ottavino was returning from Tommy John last year so he only pitched 27 IP, but he picked up right where his 2015 left off (which was snuffed out after 10.3 IP). Over his last 37.3 IP he has a 1.93 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 34% K rate, and 6% BB rate while allowing just 5.1 hits per nine and only 3 HRs (0.7 HR/9). He works in the mid-90s with his fastball and has a three-headed slider so be careful about seeing him as just a two-pitch pitcher. Ottavino is already locked into a deal as well.

Johnson had a 7.90 ERA through his first 15 appearances with eight of the 12 ER coming in four straight appearances right before he hit the DL with a groin strain. He was sitting around 92-93 MPH with his sinker during that period, as well. He returned after about a month off and had 2-3 more MPH on the sinker, jumping up each month until he was regularly sitting 95 MPH down the stretch.

Unsurprisingly, his results turned immediately. From June on, he had a 1.76 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 26% K rate, and 7% BB rate in 51 IP along with 20 saves, 18 of which came from late-July through the end of the season when he took over the ninth permanently. He might not repeat the strikeout rate as his swinging strike rate was only 8%, but his elite groundball rate makes up for his strikeout tendencies. The 34-year old isn’t going to be high on anyone’s list, but I could see him sneaking his way to 40 saves if he sticks with Atlanta all year.

Enter the Arizona market at your own risk

The depth chart currently lists Fernando Rodney, Jake Barrett, and Randall Delgado at the backend of their bullpen. Have fun with all of that. Rodney opened the season with 25 scoreless outings and still wound up with a 3.44 ERA thanks a 5.63 ERA in the final 40 IP. Sure, part of it was a .369 BABIP, but with an ERA that bad, I kind of expected it to be something exorbitant like .450. The 14% BB rate really did him in. I don’t trust him in Chase Field at all. The thing is, the potential replacements for Rodney are hardly any better. I’m just out on this pen.





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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NL Rulesmember
7 years ago

Burgos could factor in Arizona. Along with Hudson, he may fit with guys like Nicasio, Treinen, Barraclough, Capps, Rondon and Neris (and maybe MCabrera, Rivero and the new Miami guys) as quality roster options for an RP that could end up closing at least part of the season. There are no doubt more but that’s a first-go on the NL side.