Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Lindor, Turner, & Moss

Trea Turner’s and Francisco Lindor’s Unexpected Power

In 2015, Lindor perplexed fantasy owners by hitting 12 HR in just 438 PA. He was never much of a power hitter in the minors and scouting reports put him at below average power. He’s not been the only light-hitting infield prospect with unexpected power.

Trea Turner’s home run power was unanticipated with 13 homers in about half a season last year. Like Lindor, he never hit for much power in the minors and his power grades disappointed. Should owners point to Lindor as an example for limiting power expectations after an unexpected half season?

While both should be evaluated in a vacuum, they have several similarities. To start with, here are the pair’s scouting grades from Baseball America and MLB.com.

That is quite a few 40’s for power. When I see below average power grades, I probably dismiss the player from having any power. I need to correct this bias. Using the basic prospect grading scale, a 40-grade power is still worth about 10 homers a season.

Forty-grade power isn’t a death sentence. It’s acceptable power and maybe the player can move up a grade. Last season, Lindor hit 15 home runs. This places him right between a 45 and 50 grade for a 45+ grade. His power is not out-of-line with expectations.

Continuing the comparison, here are the pair’s major league corrected exit velocity (EV), batted ball distances, and power related stats.

To start with, their exit velocities and average distances are at or above the overall league numbers.

Lindor beat his expected values in 2015 and the results regressed last season near to the 2015 expected values. Turner’s home run rate and isolated power were over his expected values are most likely headed down in 2017.

Moving on to 2017, projections predict both at 15 homers. They have Lindor with a .140 ISO and Turner with a .158 ISO. The 2016 league average ISO was .162, so the projections place the pair at or just below league average power.

While both players hit with a more power than their prospect pedigree projected, the power results aren’t egregiously wrong. The key to remember, below average power does not equate to zero power. And in the case of Lindor and Turner, a player can beat his expectations a bit.

Notes

• I don’t believe David Robertson is going to get traded during this offseason. Instead, the White Sox will hope he stays healthy and they move him before the trade deadline for a nice haul. Owners will pick up Nate Jones hoping he steps into the White Sox’s vacated closer’s role. Don’t count on it.

I could see Jones getting traded also. He’s probably as talented as Robertson and has a team friendlier contract. I would not be surprised if he brought more back in talent than Robertson.

Pinpointing the bullpen’s next potential closer is not easy. Tommy Kahnle and Michael Ynoa walk too many batters. Zach Putnam is coming back from an injury. The rest aren’t good. Owners may want to see how the bullpen shakes out over the first month before they speculate on a potential future closer.

• Royals signed Brandon Moss to a two-year deal. His value moves up for the simple reason,  he’ll get a full season of plate appearances. I am not worried about any kind of platoon because Ned Yost doesn’t use them, ever. They must give him hives or shingles.

Additionally, Moss is not going to hit for average and his OK walk rate pushes his on-base rate up to only about.300. He doesn’t steal. He is going to hit in the middle of an OK lineup and drive in a ton of runs. I would not be surprised if he ended the season with 100 RBIs.

The big loser for 2017 will be Cheslor Cuthbert. He was set to get some time at DH. Cuthbert could easily be starting in 2018 though with a half dozen Royals headed to free agency but he will need another player to get hurt to play this season.

• Glen Perkins looks to be a steal at his current ADP. While he is coming back from shoulder surgery, he plans on being the Twins closer.

If healthy, Perkins is expected to reclaim his role as Minnesota’s closer. But he admitted he’ll have to be eased into the season, as he’s not expected to pitch in back-to-back games early in the season — and there’s still a chance he could open the campaign on the disabled list. Reliever Brandon Kintzler is most likely to be the closer if Perkins isn’t ready.

Once Perkins gets healthy and stays productive, I could see him keep the closer’s role all season. In NFBC, Perkins is going 503 overall while owners are picking Perkins’ replacement, Brandon Kintzler, at pick 300. I will gladly take Perkins 200 picks later in deeper leagues. He could be a great early season DL stash.

• I figured Jose Peraza would be a nice reserve round pick because he’s the Reds the first bench option once any non-catcher goes on the DL. Right now his average ADP is the 11th round (135 overall) ahead of Dustin Pedroia, Ben Zobrist, and about 10 other second basemen I would own before Peraza. I think his value is between picks 250 to 300 as a reserve rounder, not someone I am counting on as a core contributor for my team. His price is too high right now.

• Brad Miller may take over the Rays second base job vacated when Logan Forsythe was traded to the Dodgers. I don’t see the news moving the needle much on his overall value. Having both 2B and SS eligibility does make him a little more desirable than those shortstops going around him like Troy Tulowitzki and Elvis Andrus.