Tout Wars Prep: Initial Player Evaluations

So far in my Tout Wars preparation series, I’ve documented the league’s draft tendencies and the stats needed to win. Today, I’ll create the framework for player pricing. Along the way, I will show how there is no position scarcity except with catcher. At least for this league

Completing this step brings the preparation is laborious, but necessary. Once it’s done, I can spend most of my time evaluating players and their projected playing time.

For evaluating players, I utilize the Standings Gain Points (SGP) method. I previously outlined the procedure and it‘s the same method Larry Schechter recommends in his book, Winning Fantasy Baseball. Normally, this procedure is fairly straight forward since I’ve historically used three-year average values. Last year’s offensive explosion complicates the math. With more offense available, home runs, Runs, and RBIs become less important. Predicting 2017’s run scoring environment is impossible so I won’t for now. I feel I need to use a weighted average system with 2016 getting the most weight but I am just not sure how much to weight them. To get the process started, I will use the average standings from 2014 to 2016 for this work.

Here are my initial value equations for this 15-team standard league with OBP instead of AVG. I am not showing the entire SGP procedure because the previous links contain the detailed procedure.

Hitters:

Hitter SGP = R/17.7 + HR/5.02 + RBI/11.8 + SB/7.7 + ((((2310 + H + BB)/(6878 + AB+ BB))- .333)/.00088)

Pitchers:

Pitcher SGP = W/2.46 + Save/6.43 + K/18.1 + ((3.69-((ER+498)*(9/(1209+IP))))/.0568) + ((1.233-((1488+H+BB)/(IP+1209)))/.00964)

I’m using a modified OBP equation since the historic league info doesn’t contain all components.

For the next step, I inserted our Depth Chart projections into the equations. I’ll eventually use a composite projection but for now, I will have a basic system to work with.

 

Pitcher Values

Going back to my original prep article, I found the league’s average hitter/pitcher split of 67.5%/32.5%. Of the $260 budget, an average of $84.5 will be spent on each pitcher or $1267.5 total. I will use this split for now but may adjust it to my liking later.

Ignoring the detailed steps of turning SGP into dollar amounts, I calculated the value of each pitcher (value sheet). With the final values, I can compare my values with historic league tendencies.

In total, 37 relievers project positive value. Historically, 41 relievers are taken in the auction so the total number is reasonable. Where my numbers are off a bit is with the money spent on relievers.

Season: Average per Team
2014: $28
2015: $25
2016: $21
2017 (Projected): $16.6

Even with the decreasing trend, I may be allocating too little compared to others. I won’t adjust the values for now as some roles are being worked out but I may have to in the future.

 

Hitter Values

Calculating hitter values takes a little more effort to calculate positional replacement values. I start with the historically weakest position (catcher), fill those slots, and then move up the positional ladder (C to MI to OF to CI to Util). Since this league has corner and middle infield slots, I grouped and ranked second base and shortstop together. I did the same with first base and third base. When doing this I just need to make sure 15 shortstops and third basemen make the cut so enough players will be available (they were enough of each).

Once the positions were split and ranked, I average stats from the last five players’ to make the cut at each position. Additionally, I added the final SGP cutoff value.

Composite Replacement Level Player
Position OBP HR RBI Runs SB SGP Cutoff
C 0.304 8 30 31 2 16.3
MI 0.311 17 63 64 5 23.0
OF 0.314 18 60 65 9 23.7
CI 0.324 16 64 66 3 23.3
Util 0.331 12 54 51 10 23.1
Average (MI, OF, CI, Util) 0.320 16 60 62 7 23.3

With the final utility position filled, its SGP is almost identical to middle infield with the 0.1 SGP difference working out to $0.3. I am not going continuously adjust the rankings up for $0.3. I can utilize my time elsewhere.

Note: I noticed that players who missed all of 2016 (Eric Thames and Kyle Schwarber) were not included so the Utility cutoff moves up to 23.2. Also, some minor leagures. Still close enough for me not to worry for now. I may make one final check before the auction but for now I will consider all non-catcher equal and just concentrate on their projections.

Now, the near $6 difference between catcher and other positions is significant. It is about a $15 difference in price. The reason is pretty obvious when comparing to the overall replacement figures. On average, a replacement level catcher collects half of the counting stats and 15 points less of OBP compared to other replacement level players. For example, the boost pushes Buster Posey from 63rd to 11th overall. Looking back at last year’s auction, these historic values fall in line with the actual results so I should expect other owners to follow suit.

I am done for this week and let me know if you have any questions. Next week, I am going to work through the league’s replacement level players and meld them into some player projections.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Ryan Brockmember
7 years ago

Rep. lvl. hitters are hitting over .300? Something seems off there…

Ryan Brockmember
7 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Zimmerman

Got it! By the way, have you ever done any analysis of whether the C rep lvl adjustment is “worth it” in practice? Especially in deeper leagues, and two-catcher?