Jeff Zimmerman: It’s time to start today’s chat. Hope everyone has had their coffee.

Raggedy Nick Burkett: Any non top 10 catchers you feel confident will start 120+games?  Thanks much as usual.

Jeff Zimmerman: Tucker Barnhart

ScottTINSTAAPP: Jeff I’ve been enjoying the late round pitching dives, super helpful. For guys who we want to see more velocity from to take a chance on, how much stock do you put into spring training velocities? I know some guys ramp up throughout the year so is there any way you try to parse what velocity changes (or lack thereof) in spring are sustainable and what we should expect over the year?

Jeff Zimmerman: First, thanks.

Jeff Zimmerman: Spring Train velocity for starters is very sticky.

Paul Sporer: OK sorry about that, had some technical issues, think we’re good to go

Greg: What do you think about Dustin May this year? Is he locked into a rotation spot?

Paul Sporer: He’s got one right now, but normal Dodger shenanigans plus the short 2-mo. season tells me he won’t necessarily get 30+ starts. I’d tab him closer to 23-25.

Ryan: Are you on the Zac Plesac hype train?

Paul Sporer: I feel pretty good about him. I wrote some things about him here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2020-fastball-usage-decliners/ I’m not sure I’m going top 20 all the time, but I’m not too far off

Nick Burkett: I love all the SP’s the Marlins are rolling out, tell me I’m crazy.

Jeff Zimmerman: Hi everyone.

Jeff Zimmerman: Just a heads up, I might have to immediately leave during the chat for a family situation. We should be fine, but it could be a possibility.

TJ: How many SP, CL, and high skill RP would you take in a 50 player D&H?

Jeff Zimmerman: I wrote up my strategy here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/league-retrospectives-draft-hold-breakdo…

Michael Waldo: Mountcastle a viable mlb regular?  Jared Walsh?  Thanks much.

Jeff Zimmerman: Yes for both, but I’m worried some about Walsh getting full time at bats

Kyle Escobar: Dom Smith or Matt Olson in a dynasty league?  Thanks much.

Jeff Zimmerman: Olson right now. I’m really worried about Smith’s playing time over the next few years.

Rob: Jeff, what is your outlook for Jonathan Villar?  Assuming he signs with a team, do you envision him as a utility bench player or a starter that could reward those that draft him?

Jeff Zimmerman: He’s undraftable for me until he signs. No one can guess his role, so until it is known, assume the worst.

Ando: Who are some of the later “closers” that are being drafted that you have some faith in drafting?

Jeff Zimmerman: Martin with the Braves.

Kyle Esco: Pablo Lopez’s gains legitimate?  Still room for further growth?  Thanks.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think so. I’m high on him but so is everyone else. It’ll be interesting to see how high is ADP gets.

Sam: Is Dylan Carlson a good buy?

Jeff Zimmerman: No idea. Owners can hope on the Sept rebound and his prospect pedigree.

Kate: How much of a hindrance is COVID to guys who struggled in 2020 in terms of their ability to work with coaches to improve?  Thinking about a guy like Cease who probably needs to make some mechanical / release point changes to fix his spin axis.

Jeff Zimmerman: I’m guessing it’s going to be case by case with each pitcher. Spring Training news is going to really important to follow

Paul Sporer: Gooooood afternoon, y’all!

Hooha: Am I crazy for thinking Trent Grisham should be a top 35 player in OBP leagues for 2021?

Paul Sporer: I can’t get behind that, especially as top 35 overall, though even top 35 hitter is tough for someone who we can’t quiiiite trust vL just yet. I like Grisham as a power-speed combo, but not as much as you

Pete A: Paul I can seem to find the Ariel Cohen Beat the Shift podcast on iTunes. Where can I find it?

Paul Sporer: It might not be on iTunes yet, you can ask Ariel directly on their Twitter acct for the show https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/beat-the-shift-podcast-teaser/

stonecold: I feel like you’ve said you have DeGrom as your 1.01, is that still true for you?

Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome everyone

Jeff Zimmerman: It’ll be a few more weeks of fantasy football and then everyone can focus on baseball drafts.

Ji Man Soy: Most intriguiging OF outside of the top 300 redraft

Jeff Zimmerman: Let me look

Jeff Zimmerman: Mitch Haniger if healthy

Jeff Zimmerman: Adam Eaton depending on where he signs

Big Joey: Max Fried a top 15 SP in 2021?

Jeff Zimmerman: He’s not for me. The strikeout drop is alarming. If he repeats 2020, he’s a bad version of Kyle Hendricks.

Jeff Zimmerman: Expect for the 2.25 ERA. I expect it to jump up at least a run, possibly two.

Big Joey: Would you be shocked if Gleyber Torres puts up a .280  40  100/100 season in 2021?

Jeff Zimmerman: For sure. I’m not a fan at his price and I think the 2019 HR’s will be a huge outlier.

Jeff Zimmerman: The AVG is would be a career high but reach able. The Runs and RBIs are expected if he stays on the field.

Paul Sporer: Welcome everybody! A bit of an abbreviated chat on this holiday week, let’s talk some baseball!

Daniel: Paul, JD Davis to Colorado for Jon Gray. Davis becomes the Rockies 1b. Who says no?

Paul Sporer: Probably the Rockies and honestly, rightfully so. Gray hasn’t been a stud by any stretch, but they need to keep any developed pitching they can. Ryan McMahon SHOULD be able to replicate J.D. Davis or come damn close, but getting pitching has been this franchise’s issue forever.

Daniel: Thoughts on the Mets hiring Chris Young as GM. Seems like an unnecessary risk given his complete lack of experience.

Paul Sporer: Did they hire him? I thought it was only an interview. He is remarkably smart and obviously wouldn’t be working by himself. I don’t think it’s that big of a risk, I like the move

Paul Sporer: (espec. since it’s only an interview, but I’m not against them hiring him)