Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – May 26th, 2021

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out! Let’s talk some baseball!!

Guest: Who do you have more faith turning it around before the end of the season? Sonny Gray or Castillo ?

Paul Sporer: I don’t really favor one over the other, I like both to rebound. I’d still pick Castillo over Gray

Matt: Carlos Rodon: Top 20 ROS?

Paul Sporer: Not quite top 20, but top 30-35 for sure

Henry: Lindor has started bad before, but it is almost June and it is bad… Is it finally panic time?

Paul Sporer: I mean, it might be but there still isn’t anything to do meaning I’m not cutting or benching him

Biting My Nails: Rostering Lindor in a dynasty league, should I be panic-selling to get whatever I can for him? It’s been absolutely brutal out here.

Paul Sporer: I didn’t even notice it was back to back Lindor Qs

Paul Sporer: Should still be able to get something impactful in dynasty, even if you sell lower. If not, then just hold.

Manoah: are you buying or selling me in fantasy right now?

Paul Sporer: Must add in all leagues for the upside. He may not pan out, but on the chance that he hits the ground running, he has to be rostered off rip

Sum: are you holding Snell? selling low? I’m in a shallow (10 team mixed) league, and that roster spot is valuable. thanks, Paul!

Paul Sporer: I’m holding, even in 10 teamers. You can sit him if you’d like, but I still think it’s a bad idea to cut or sell low

Drew: I traded Trout for Bregman in h2h points yesterday. Good deal for me?

Paul Sporer: Sure, that’s fine. The difference between the two is closed by the injury gap

Von Hayes: Why would any team choose to have someone make their first big league start on the road in Yankee Stadium?

Paul Sporer: Can’t always line things up perfectly

Ken: Brandon Crawford’s power for real this year?  Why is he mashing at age 34?  Fluke?

Paul Sporer: More fluke than real for sure. 28% HR/FB compared to a career 10%

Teddy B: Time to cut bait on Bundy?  He has been Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile thus far

Paul Sporer: What league size? I’d probably just bench right now. Core K & BB skills still solid

Needs steals: MONDESI BACK!

Paul Sporer: Let’s goooo!!!!

JD: Better ROS in NL only roto: Brubaker or G. Marquez?

Paul Sporer: LOL, literally have them 77/78 in my rankings w/Marquez at 77.

BrendanMcKayDylanWalsh: I’m facing a roster crunch…can you rank Montas, McLanahan, and Tailion ROS? 12 teamer.

Paul Sporer: Montas/Taillon/McClanahan

BrendanMcKayDylanWalsh: How high are you on Danny Santana? Read your column last week & grabbed him to replace Manny & his bum shoulder. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: The power-speed is there and we’re a year removed from 20-20. Yes his plate skills are booty so there’s volatility, but the upside is legit

Nate: I know you’ve been advising a hold on Bohm. How much longer can we hold out in shallow leagues?

Paul Sporer: I’m trying to hold another week or so, but if you find someone you really like, I understand making the move at this pt

Eyebrows: How concerned are you about Realmuto? Wrist injury has me worried.

Paul Sporer: Totally understand the concern, but it’s not actionable as you just have to ride it out and put him back in once he returns unless you’re trying to sell whilst on IL

Scott McGovern: What position has the most volatility from a fantasy perspective, from year-to-year? Is it relievers? Has anyone done any research on this? Thinking about overall draft strategy in the future, and which positions to keep/discard.

Paul Sporer: Definitely relievers given their small samples

Henry: Is someone in the AL East going to win 90+ games and not make the postseason?

Paul Sporer: Certainly possible!

Chris: Still buying on Maeda, assuming he comes back fine/soon from IL?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m still buying espec. bc now there is a real discount tied to him

Brian: How terrible is a Trevor Richards, Tyler mahle, and Rhys Hoskins for woodruff offer? Out of 10 with 10 being best for the woodruff side. Feels like it’d be ok to give that for Cole or degrom but it’s a big overpay for woodruff.

Paul Sporer: Trevor Richards or Rogers?

Cory: I have a number of owners chasing my Casey Mize in my 14 team H2H keeper league.  Now might be a good time to sell high, thoughts?  I’m eyeballing a couple of guys but I tend to over value my own players…  Guys like Cease, Solak, or Josh Bell?  Are any of those a long term upgrade or stick with Mize?

Paul Sporer: I’d be interested in Solak. Gimme foundational hitting in keeper leagues given the volatile nature of pitching and the fact that Mize doesn’t quite look like a future ace given his K rates

Alex: Edward Olivares is mashing in AAA. Does he replace Michael Taylor as the regular CF for the Royals at some point this year?

Paul Sporer: He’s actually on this week’s Watchlist. Justin and I were big fans of him last year when he came to KC bc we thought he’d find some PT. That chance could absolutely come through this year!

Jim Leyland Palmer: Paul, is there any way you could view this Tiger’s upcoming offseason a success if they do not land one of the top handful of big FA SS (not Semien)?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think it’s an automatic failure if one of the big dogs doesn’t come through, but they reeeaaaallllyyy need to focus on getting one. It’s the perfect time to land a foundational SS as they are just starting to see some development and next year will carry some measure of expectations to start moving the needle forward. Correa could be a great fit if Hinch stays, too

Robert: Dynasty league rebuilder: I just traded a lot for ke’bryan Hayes: Josh Donaldson, Hendriks, Berrios. Am I crazy?

Paul Sporer: I like Hayes quite a bit long-term. That’s a good haul for the person who traded Hayes but I totally get that dynasty dynamics are much different

Brian: Cole for Trevor Richards and walker buehler in a keep 6 league. Which side ya got?

Paul Sporer: This has to be Trevor Rogers, right?

The Stream Team: Better stream for 6 team FIP based scoring: Turnbull Sat @ NYY or K Hendricks Thurs @ PIT

Paul Sporer: Gotta go Hendricks at PIT

Ted: Sell high on Winker or long-term hold?. Article on here yesterday seemed to suggest there’s fire w/ this smoke

Paul Sporer: Oh ya, he’s been a monster throughout his career with injuries and an inability against lefties as the only things holding him back. You should entertain selling high as you can likely land a full-time stud who might be struggling right now. As good as Winker is, he will miss days v LH SPs bc he’s just so bad against them. That incremental volume from an everyday stud, even if their rates aren’t matching Winker, can be a big deal.

Kate: Baddoo seems to be figuring out how to make a bit more contact, but at the same time he’s seemingly having trouble finding consistent playing time of the last several weeks.  Tigers going to find him consistent ABs at some point?  Or is he going to be a half-time guy the rest of the year?

Paul Sporer: Yeah he has just 5 Ks in his last 10 games (and 3 were in 1 gm), but only 6 of those are starts thus it’s just 28 PA. He is hitting .474/.607/.632 w/8 BB, 5 R & RBI, 3 SB, but 0 HR. I think if there is something to this new approach (43% K% in his first 82 PA) then his PT will go back up. He’s only a deep league consideration at this point, but I’m keeping a close eye on him

JASON MARTIN: Jason Martin just called up in Texas. Was hitting/running in AAA though never a top guy. Worth a look in AL only?

Paul Sporer: Definitely has AL only vibes immediately. Playing time could be tough given their OF/DH situation, but he could deliver some HR/SB and carve out more time if he hits the ground running. Could see some Calhoun to DH for Khris Davis and Martin in LF vRH if Martin forces his way into the lineup with a fast start

Chantanella: 12-tm, H2H, redraft, 5×5 with extra hitting cats of OPS and Ks and pitching cats of K/BB, K/9, and L

I was offered my Lindor for his Gausmann and Carlson. Usually an easy no but two months of Lindor hitting sub .200 is killing me. I have Lux eligible at SS and Gausmann would give me ammo to swap a pitcher or two for another SS.

Pull the trigger?

Paul Sporer: I’m a huge Carlson fan so this feels solid to me. Yeah, it’d probably be a no if Lindor wasn’t struggling, but it’s not some major sell low so I’m good to roll with this

Kyle Gibson: Did you leave a toy in your yard or something that Kyle Gibson tripped on? Bastard!

Paul Sporer: No, it wasn’t me!!!

Ken: Does Vaughn contribute enough to be a starter in ten-teamers rest of the way this year?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s going to have a huge summer, tbh

Siri: Considering trading away Woodruff for Trout in H2H categories  league. My other pitchers are Gausman, Trevor Rogers, Eflin, E-Rod and German, with Stripling and Elieser Hernandez on the IL. Also have Manoah. Would you make this move? I’m in 5/12 place right now.

Paul Sporer: That is a tough one. I’m going back and forth on it, which means there’s a case for both sides and thus seems pretty doable. A 12-teamer should have some waiver wire goodies across the remainder of the season, too, so you can stream some gems to cover the Woodruff loss, too

Ghost of Horace Clarke: Do you have any thoughts on what’s wrong with Eddie Rosario? Do you have hopes for a bounceback, or is he droppable for someone like Danny Santana?

Paul Sporer: I don’t really see any reason why Rosario will stay this bad. I think regression will get him back to his league average level and I’m encouraged by how much he’s running early on so I’m inclined to hang onto him for now. That said, as I mentioned earlier, I like Santana so if you can maybe cut someone else, he is still a viable target

Kate: Are the steals gone for Meadows?  Could you see him getting back to like 10-12 maybe?

Paul Sporer: I think he’ll get another handful this year (6-9) but I think it might be personal choice to run less as a means of self preservation given his career health troubles

Kate: How much does Story moving to another non-Coors park worry you?  Steal should stick, but how will the pop and BABIP translate (obviously depends on the park)?

Paul Sporer: I’m not too worried. He’s a legit stud so it’ll be like Arenado IMO… his home #s will go down some for sure, but his road #s will almost certainly rise since he won’t have the Coors Hangover to deal with

Guest: What’s better, Great or Excellent?

Paul Sporer: Excellent for me

Brian: re: woodruff trade – rogers sorry!

Paul Sporer: So that’s Rogers/Mahle/Hoskins for Woodruff… and you said a 10 out of 10 means I’d want Woodruff side, so I’m at a 2-3, preferring the trio of players for sure

Norm: Skubal has had a good last few starts after scrapping the splitter and going back to his old changeup. Do you think he has turned the corner?

Paul Sporer: Yeah he has gotten his strikeouts back on track and looks much better. He’s also limiting walks much better, too. Next step is curbing the HRs. I think he will still be on and off the waiver wire in 10s and 12s, but I think he’s a team streamer in 15s

Jim Leyland Palmer: “if” Hinch stays? Not sure how long his contract is, but is this an open question with him?

Paul Sporer: Think he finagled himself an out if he hates it

Nate: ROS, do we get the Dick Mountain from early season or the last couple weeks?

Paul Sporer: You know damn well Rich Hill is going to be maddeningly inconsistent. If you have him in roto, just play him when he’s healthy and sit him when he’s not. He tests our patience, but if you stick with him, he usually delivers sooner than later

Randy: Can Demarcus Evans be the closer of the future for TEX? His K/9 numbers are off phenomenal.

Paul Sporer: Nasty 57% K rate w/his fastball/breaking ball combo. He doesn’t have crazy velo, but it’s still super effective thanks to its spin. If (when? ya.. it’s gotta be when) they trade Ian Kennedy, there’s a good shot for Evans to get some 9th inning chances

Steve: Which aging, hot-hitting infielder finishes the season with a better wOBA: Brandon Crawford or Brad Miller?

Paul Sporer: I’d say Miller. He’s always been a really solid hitter and I love that he already has 3 SBs this year

Bob: I just traded Trevor Richards for Mike Trout in my dynasty. Did I overpay?

Paul Sporer: Now y’all are just trolling me lol

Eddie: I been holding on to Jarren Duran and Vidal Brujan in my AL league, either one up anytime soon, you think?

Paul Sporer: It’s so hard to say bc an opening can occur at any moment. I’d hold both until you have to get rid of one bc you can’t field a full lineup or something due to injuries. But short of that, I’d ride this out for another few wks bc both of those guys could be impactful right away. I will say that Santana’s potential emergence doesn’t help Duran, but again, the second that someone looks completely blocked off, there’s an injury that opens him up

thebearproofsuit: I see K Lewis finally got that DEF grade upgrade on The Show. for ’21..looks like talk of needing to move him out of CF ASAP were premature…made a great play last night, seems like he can be an averageish CFer for a few years at least

Paul Sporer: Yeah if his body can hold up, I don’t see why he can’t hang in there for a few years for sure. I love Lewis so I really hope he can just get some injury luck and we can see him for some full seasons to see his true potential

Brad: Is this the year Brendan Rodgers fulfills his prospect and home park potential? Or is he better left on the wire until he proves he can hit big-league pitching?

Paul Sporer: I’m still buying. So if he’s healthy and playing, I’m taking a shot

Ed: Where you at these days on Greinke? Numbers are great on the whole this year and he obviously has a stellar track record, but I guess I have trust issues with low-K/low-velo guys and am wondering if/when that’s going to catch up with him soon. Time to move on if I can get good value, or just set it and forget it?

Paul Sporer: He’s set it & forget it for me. I always say you gotta manage to your strengths though and if it’s too treacherous for you to trust him, see if you can make a move for a starter who doesn’t drive your anxiety like that start to start

Mike: Any hopes for a Bohm rebound?  What do you think his true talent level is?

Paul Sporer: Yeah for sure, but it might not come this year. Prospect growth isn’t linear and we confirmation biased the hell out of Bohm when he was great in his 2020 sample. Now he has a near equal sized sample with the dead opposite results (139 wRC+ last yr, 55 so far this year). He’s learning and I’m sticking with him long-term. That said, I totally understand sitting or even cutting in 10-teamers bc those leagues are more short-term focused since the waiver wire will be robust with options.

Norm: Why do the DBacks suck so bad? A couple years ago their roster looked promising

Paul Sporer: I was so in on them, too. The pitching is pretty rough right now, especially the bullpen. 3 of their most intriguing SPs are hurt, too: Gallen, Weaver, Widener. There are some foundational pieces, but it’s rough right now

Duchess: Is Chapman even an average hitter anymore? K rate and ISO have been going in opposite directions for a while now.

Paul Sporer: I mean, even with the 35% K/5% BB last year, he had a 117 wRC+ and .303 ISO, so I don’t really see how any of this has been going on for a while now, tbh. The ISO is down this year to just .151 with Ks remaining high at 33% but I’m not off him over these 200 PA. Have to wonder if any residual pain from the hip is eating into his power. Being healthy enough to play isn’t the same as being 100%.

Josh: any thoughts on soto’s underwhelming performance thus far? maybe he was overdrafted? everything seems to check out under the hood but he certainly hasnt lived up to (insert expectations here)

Paul Sporer: Stop

Von Hayes:

Broseidon: Got any hot pitching tips?

Paul Sporer: For MLB The Show?

Mike in Colombia: Drop Desclafani for Gallen or Maeda? 12 team h2h

Paul Sporer: I could do it for Maeda. I’m pretty nervous about Gallen’s outlook for this year. I’m not out on Disco but he has the Dodgers next so I doubt he gets picked up for maybe a week (Cubs after that) and you could maybe get him back if someone else becomes cuttable in that time

Guest: Trade Gore (6 years of control after this season) for Kershaw (1 year rental). Currently in 2nd place and need pitching help.

Paul Sporer: Absolutely

Austin Riley: You selling me high?

Paul Sporer: Is he netting a big return? I’m a Riley fan, but I don’t know how high of a return he is generating despite the gaudy AVG thus far

Dave: how concerned are you about Machado?  He wasn’t producing much to this point, now he’s been out with a shoulder injury the past week.  What do you expect from him for the rest of the season?

Paul Sporer: I haven’t been a huge Machado fan since he left BAL and I definitely lost on that last year as he went off for a .950 OPS, but now here we are again w/a modest slash line (love the 6 SBs, though). I think you have to stick it out with him of course and I can see a 110-115 wRC+ rest of way, but I don’t see superstar production

Porcho Villa: Soler has been sooooo brutal. 1 for his last 17 and barely any power. Droppable in 12-team 5×5 OBP?

Paul Sporer: Yeah he’s not an automatic in 12 teamers

Joy: Gavin Lux top 5 SS henceforth?

Paul Sporer: That is loftyyyyyyyyyyyy. I think top 15 would be a win right now

IL Bound: Can we all just pour one out for the number of injuries lately?

Paul Sporer: It’s been a nightmare for sure

Jennifer Lopez: JENNIFER.LOPEZ.

Ray: If Brad Miller gets the playing time, think he could compare favorably to Eduardo Escobar?

Paul Sporer: Yes, but he will prob only play vRH while Escobar plays daily

sam: You an Adolis believer? Where does the OBP settle – what’s the 3 year outlook?

Paul Sporer: I’m a big suspect on him, but I think the playing time will remain strong so even as his slash line regresses, there will still be homers and steals. OBP will be low-.300s and I could definitely see a sub-.300 the rest of the way.

phil: My condolences for the Castillo @ Coors start

Paul Sporer: LOL thanks. It’s been roughhhh with him this year

Jake: Would you be starting Aguilar or Mercedes in your Util spot? Both had some hot RBI streaks that have cooled off a bit in the last few weeks

Paul Sporer: Yermin still bringing the AVG, so I’d go with him if I can only choose one. I wouldn’t cut Aguilar, though. I think he’s got 30 HR potential this year

Guest: Hi Paul,

Paul Sporer: hi!

Porcho Villa: Need 1B help– grab Bell or Vaughn?

Paul Sporer: I’d take Vaughn

Liam: Been offered Muncy for Stanton in a 12 team redraft using OBP. No dire positional needs though am deeper at OF than infield. Muncy seems like he will regress given his BABIP and HR/FB but still should be a great hitter. Stanton’s EV suggests he can hit 40-50 more HRs this season. Gut feeling this is the big Stanton year

Paul Sporer: It seems you’re set on Stanton which I get. I’d go for Muncy personally, but it’s close enough to make a case for either so stick w/your gut & keep Stanton

DS: Are you trying to buy low on Gallen in keeper leagues or is potential TJS making you stay away?

Paul Sporer: I’m not really going for him. I’m too worried about the TJ which then takes him out for ’22, too

Brutus: Paul, love your work! Also, thank you for giving me something meaningful to do during this never-ending work meeting.

1) Alek Manoah. Are you starting him tonight or is this a wait-and-see circumstance?

2) Jackson Kowar is giving me Ian Anderson vibes. Am I being overzealous?

Thanks, as always!

Brutus

Paul Sporer: While Manoah is a must add, doesn’t mean he’s a must start at NYY so I’ll probably chill on tonight’s start. Totally get the Kowar/Anderson call out given the elite changeups from both. Kowar’s command and control aren’t as developed as Anderson’s was coming into last year, but Anderson had a sub-2.00 ERA so there’s plenty of wiggle room for Kowar

Brian: All the Trevor Richards questions should have been Rogers. Brain farts everywhere. Sry.

Paul Sporer: You’re totally fine!

Mike: Who knew Trevor Richards was such a coveted asset (joking)…

What are your expectations for Trevor ROGERS the rest of the year?  I’m thrilled with him in dynasty but the inability to go through the lineup 3 times seems at least a tad concerning, no?

Paul Sporer: I’m a believer in Rogers for sure. He’s at least a 3.50/1.25 guy rest of way with plenty of upside to beat both of those marks. He’s a stud!

Charlotte: Would you sit either Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Eugenio Suarez for Adalberto Mondesi, going forward?

Paul Sporer: I’d sit IKF. I know he’s become a bit of a meme player for me bc I roasted him on the ITL podcast saying it didn’t even matter that he had C eligibility in Yahoo!. That was of course wrong and I definitely contradicted one of my favorite things in fantasy; a non-catching catcher.

If you can get a full-time position player who qualifies at C, they really don’t have to be all that good to be a legit catcher option. Alllll that said, without that eligibility, I’m still not sold on him as the 5 HR are an anomaly. So I’d go Mondesi/Suarez w/IKF sitting or even cut (if he doesn’t have C)

BudLight: Olson for Luis Castillo. Fair deal?

Paul Sporer: For sure

Josh: If Ozuna is out longish term, is he a cut in 10 teams assuming IL spot is full? he has been pretty underwhelming even before the injury

Paul Sporer: It’s at least 6 wks. I can get behind cutting him in 10 tms where you have more important guys in the IL spots

Windy: Carson Kelly or Sean Murphy? 12 team .OBP league

Paul Sporer: Maaaan, I’m a bit nervous about Kelly playing through the toe fracture so I’ll lean Murphy

Bill Lumbergh: 10 years of Trent Grisham or 5 years of Christian Yelich?

Paul Sporer: Not sure you can really add much value beyond 2-3 yrs given how uncertain things get after that so I’ll just go with the better player in Yelich

Ohio: Happy World Otter Day!

Paul Sporer: Thanks!!!

Paul Sporer: Me when I heard it’s World Otter Day:

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later tonight and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!