Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – June 23rd, 2021

Paul Sporer: Hello! Thanks for coming through. It’ll be a tight timeframe today ahead of our Discord Watch Party for Patreon folks. We’re watching Ohtani v. Gausman!!

ScottTINSTAAPP: Just wanted to take a moment and appreciate how sweet everyday Rake Cronenworth is!

Paul Sporer: He is so good! Huuuuge fan

Paul Sporer: For anyone interested in joining the Patreon to get in the Discord: patreon.com/thesleeperandthebust

Dodgerbleu: Paul please help with Snell! He’s ha a couple of decent starts recently, and inevitably someone in my league throws me an offer. I rebuf, encouraged by the start he just had. Then he goes back to being terrible. Today I got a Sims for Snell offer. I know I could’ve gotten more numerous times this season, but his value just keeps cratering and I could use some saves. Think that smells fair? In general, would you hold or sell low?

Paul Sporer: I feel like I’d want someone more locked in for saves, though I understand that might not be available. It’s a doable deal

ScottTINSTAAPP: haha, I love him…I see we both own him in the Main and are reaping the rewards!

Paul Sporer: He was a must-get!

ScottTINSTAAPP: Do you think Brady Singer is a cut in NFBC 15 team?

Paul Sporer: More of a team streamer for me focused on home and cushy road matchups. Most 15 wires don’t have someone better

Not Eli Whites Mom: Eli White en fuego lately. Worth a roll in leagues that play 72 OF?

Paul Sporer: The playing time is there and he’s got a fantasy-relevant profile. I’d go for it

Dodgerbleu: Why is Adam Wainwright doing well and is he a hold for the season as a stable 4 type?

Paul Sporer: He was good last year and even pretty solid the year before. Still see him as a mid-to-low 4.00s guy but there is some streamability here

The Pain and the Smell: Ohtani has to be the odds on favorite for AL MVP, once you add what he’s done on the mound, no?  In any other year without THIS Ohtani, Vlad, with his numbers would be a lock.

Paul Sporer: Ohtani SHOULD be the go-to, but I think many are still leaning Vlad. Vlad is a monster but it’s easily Ohtani for me

Guest: Good times ahead for McNeil?

Paul Sporer: Would think so if healthy

Smalls: OBP 12-Team Redraft: I was offered Y. Alvarez and Verdugo, my team needs are SB and OBP.  In return he asked for one of Albies, Semien, or Muncy.  Who would you give up of the three?

Paul Sporer: Well it can’t be Semien or Albies if you need SB. And Muncy is an OBP god. Are you getting those 2 for just one of those guys? Otherwise, I’m not sure the point

AL Guy: ROS thoughts on BA laggers Gradal and B. Lowe? Any positive regression?

Paul Sporer: Well ya, Grandal’s BABIP isn’t staying .169. Lowe’s has some bounce to it, too

Tony: Are you holding Stripling in shallow leagues? Or still treating him as a high-end streamer?

Paul Sporer: I consider him a team streamer which I guess is a high-end streamer in that I don’t cut him back into the pool when I’m not using him, but instead just reserve him. Not a new concept, but I like to specify the difference since most hear streamer and think cuttable when not in use

AcunaMatata: In an NFBC OC where Wander is available.  I am currently in 1st, with $450 in FAAB left.  No obvious need.  What would you be willing to spend?

Paul Sporer: At least $400. Probably still keep some hand to fill in holes rest of way, but otherwise I’m going in. No needs now doesn’t guarantee the same in the future. This is an elite talent who could be game-changing. Can’t pass those opportunities up

Apples and Oranges: I’m competing this year, but very much on the fringe, keeper league. C is a black hole. Have McCann but keep staring at Varsho. I know they’re very different, but are you ok with that move for a team that likely finishes in some runner up capacity?

Paul Sporer: I’m OK chasing Varsho here bc he has the skills to be a fantasy difference-maker w/the speed. McCann has gotten back on track when all hope looked lost, but he’s not special, even at C

AcunaMatata: I’m surprisingly relevent in one of my NFBC OC’s near the end of the first half (second year in NFBC), any general advice for the second half to try and money?

Paul Sporer: I honestly don’t have any special advice as this is looking to be my best year in NFBC with some teams in contention across the Main and OC. I always play hard to the finish line, but I haven’t been very good in NFBC to this point.

Tony: Would you buy in on an Eduardo Rod sub 4 ERA ROS? Nothing in his profile seems to justify the results this far outside of a high BABIP and low LOB %

Paul Sporer: No, I would not.

Cambodian Creamsicle: So now, because of this sudden rule change, we have players throwing hats and gloves on the ground for umpires, players pulling their pants down, idiot managers using the rule to disrupt a cruising pitcher’s flow, an ejection, and what do we get from it?  Longer games.  Way to go Manfred!

Paul Sporer: LOL, right? Shouldn’t it all be done in between innings so as to not slow the pace even further???

AL Guy: Please rank ROS – Greinke, Berrios, & Kikuchi (AL 5×5)

Paul Sporer: Berrios/Kikuchi/Greinke for me

Joe Girardi: I’m a buffoon!  What I pulled last night in the middle of an inning was totally bush league, and I humbly apologize to Scherzer, and the fans.  This whole substance check system is yet another black eye on the game that should have been better thought out and implemented at a more suitable time (like at the start of a season.)  What a circus!

Paul Sporer: Correct

Guest: Any hope left in Solak?

Paul Sporer: Yeah he’s not toooo far off the hoped-for pace (~20/10 and he’s pacing around 16/6). That said, it’s not out of bounds to cut him in 10s and 12s (more on that on tomorrow’s pod)

Bobby: Just a rough patch for Alex Wood, or is a he drop candidate in 12 team mixed?

Paul Sporer: Provided we don’t hear anything negative health-wise, I say rough patch and would be averse to cutting him

Billy: Varsho or Stassi in a 2C league?

Paul Sporer: Sticking w/Stassi

Sergio Romo’s Wang: I almost made my MLB debut last night!

Paul Sporer: lol

Dirk D.: You got Conforto or Meadows ROS?

Paul Sporer: Meadows. It’s really close between ’em w/the tiebreaker being the small speed edge of Meadows

Kate: Kim need a major injury to an infielder or a trade in order to get a full-time role?  Also, any chance they send him down?  I kind of feel like he needs more regular PT to get adjusted, but I can understand why a team like SD can’t give him that in the majors right now.

Paul Sporer: Yeah he likely needs an injury to open something up on a permanent basis. I don’t think they send him out. I think they like having him in a utility/PH role.

Vinny: You see good things ahead for Pete Alonso on a healthy Mets team?

Paul Sporer: Yeah healthy Alonso is always a 50 HR threat

Tony: Montas vs Tex? man wtf who saw that coming

Paul Sporer: So brutal.

Moop: What’s new with A.J. Puk?

Paul Sporer: Nothing new since his latest IL stint

Kate: Montas seemed to be settling down the last handful of starts and then blew up again this week.  Anything you’re concerned about long-term?  Or is just always going to be a mildly frustrating guy who’s still very useful?

Paul Sporer: Have to wonder if zero sticky stuff was a culprit, especially for someone w/a feel pitch like a splitter. Another dud would definitely get him out of some of my lineups (I have him damn near everywhere!) but I’m reluctant to cut him until I see what’s going on beyond this Texas dud

Ober-wan-Kenobi: have i lost the use of the force the 2nd time through the lineup? the walk rate is just sooo awesome. I want to beleive that there is value in a 12 team standard roto……am i just being a lost ewok?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I just don’t know that Bailey Ober can be trusted to go more than 3

Jack off all trades: What did you think of Kershaw’s comments on Girardi?  He’s got a point.  If an opposing manager disrupts the flow of the game, asking for a pitcher to be checked, and the umpire doesn’t find anything, shouldn’t that manager get tossed for it?  Stripping them of a challenge doesn’t seem stiff enough.

Paul Sporer: An ejection seems tough. Losing a challenge can be pivotal but I understand it doesn’t feel too severe. I don’t love it, that’s for sure

DH: Time to cut bait on Ian Happ or Miguel Sano? Replacement options include Galvis, Kemp, Berti, Fletcher, Franco, Toro.

Paul Sporer: Yeah, both can be moved on from in 10s and 12s

Soundwave: Dynasty league how are you ranking Mize, Manning, & Skubal?

Paul Sporer: Manning/Skubal/Mize

Kate: We all (myself included) yawned at any mention of Bryan Reynolds before the season.  Heck I wasn’t even really interested after 2019.  He’s killing it this year.  Am I crazy for seeing something like Conforto lite here?  If he could get out of that park / lineup and/or find a few chip-in steals (both of which seems possible), I might even remove the “lite”.

Paul Sporer: He’s been insane! I was just discussing him in the context of MLB The Show bc his card is going to get upgraded. I think dismissing him after 20 was just a miss by many of us. It just made no sense that he was trash all of a sudden, espec. when he had the markers of bad luck, namely his minuscule BABIP. But yeah, i think this is pretty legit, even if he power dips back

VADER: Does Witt see the majors this year with Royals not a factor?

Paul Sporer: Probably not

VADER: Now that Wander is up, do you still think they’ll be aggressive bringing up Brujan?

Paul Sporer: No, there just isn’t a spot. I thought Brujan could beat Franco to the majors w/how he was performing and Franco being so young that they could afford to take time, but then he surged and Brujan has smoothed out big time. With Wendle dominating and Lowe getting back on track, Brujan needs an injury at this point

Jim Leyland Palmer: Yesterday was the best day in Detroit sports since _______?

Paul Sporer: 2012 World Series?

Shnooker: Hampson or Dylan Moore for remainder of the season?

Paul Sporer: They’re the same player so I’ll just take the guy in Coors.

10 teamer: Is Harold ramirez a legit bat?

Paul Sporer: Fringe for 10-teamers right now, but I’m a Ramirez fan. Liked him in his breakthrough season of ’19, but he couldn’t get on the field last year and struggling in his small sample. Winding up in Cleveland is huge because they perennially need OF and he’s making the most of his time.

LFC Mike: Hi Paul. How do the Rays replace Glasnow? Wacha doesn’t seem the answer. Patino?  Baz?  But He only has 2 AAA starts.  Thanks

Paul Sporer: In true Rays fashion, they almost certainly piece it together as opposed to one guy emerging

Kate: BTW you guys have had me rolling on the floor listening to the podcast this year.  Between Jones Highway and Spider Neck, I’ve been busting out laughing while walking dog listening.  Keep up the great work, you all do a phenomenal job!

Paul Sporer: Thank you so much! Jones Highway and Spider Neck are my favorites!!!

brood550: Is Nootbaar worth an add?

Paul Sporer: Maybe in 15s, but otherwise just a watch list guy

Socialism Sucks: Aren’t pine tar and spider tack really the same thing?  Especially now that baseball decided to protect their fans with nets?

Paul Sporer: How so?

steve: Love your work, Paul. What are your thoughts on holding onto Harrison Bader in a 12 team 6×6 rotisserie league?

Paul Sporer: I don’t mind holding a bit. He was showing a nice pwr-spd combo before the injury

Freddy: Will Corbin Burned crash and burn now without sticky stuff?

Paul Sporer: You don’t think that’s giving a lot of power to sticky stuff? It’s obviously important and helps, but you’re essentially suggesting it made Burnes and I’m just not sure I see the logic in that

Paul Sporer: OK yall, I gotta get going. Ohtani/Gausman is heating up! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later tonight and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!