Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Hello.

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman:

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: There are the 15-team Tout Wars winning bids from tonight.

7:32
Sean: Thoughts on Taylor Ward? Been hitting 3rd lately, Statcast looks strong, wondering if there’s room at the inn when Trout returns

7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: Possibly. I had/have him on several bid groups. the 5 game week hurts his value this week.

7:34
Jedi One: Time to think about thinking about moving on from Jed Lowrie? 12 team  AL only obp keeper league. Isaac Paredes can maybe take his MI and improve. We are contending. Also rostering Pinder rn.

7:36
Jeff Zimmerman: I’d hold on to Pinder. I don’t like how Paredes is getting jerked around from the minors to the majors.

7:36
Micah: Which RPs do you see gaining and losing the most value as we enter trading season?

7:37
Jeff Zimmerman: I like to use the news from MLBTR who are up on them.

7:37
Jeff Zimmerman: I wrote about the chances ($$$) here: https://baseballhq.com/content/research-odds-player-being-traded-updat…

7:38
7:39
John Olerud’s Helmet: All hail thee Lord Zimmerman!! Time to cut bait on Danny Santana right??

7:39
Jeff Zimmerman: About two weeks too late, but yes, let go

7:39
Kcc26: Donaldson was starting to heat up but now has the dreaded “dtd” tag.  Worth holding in a 12 teamer 6×6 with OPS as a category or swap out for Votto/Cron?

7:40
Jeff Zimmerman: I might swap out for Votto. Cron is just a streamer at home

7:40
Baseball Yeti: Officially wander time! Celebratory beers aside, what are your 2021 expectations for him? Do you vary much from projections on him?

7:40
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m sure there will be a ton of questions on Wander. Here is my take:

7:41
Jeff Zimmerman:

  1. I expect nothing from him since most other rookies have failed. I think the step up from AAA to MLB is larger this season.
7:42
Jeff Zimmerman: 2 I’m interested in how the playing time will work out and what position he’ll play

7:42
Dave: Jake Magee was cut loose in my competitive 15 teamer. How many saves does he get the rest of the way?

7:43
Jeff Zimmerman: ~10, half the team’s Saves

7:43
Pitching Pennies: Drop Manoah for any of these ROS in 5×5?  Skubal, McClanahan, Minor, Marquez, Heaney, Stripling, S. Long

7:44
Jeff Zimmerman: As of right now, I like Stripling more ROS

7:44
Baseball Yeti: Would you drop Taillon for Bundy, Keuchel or Kim (QS league)?

7:45
Jeff Zimmerman: I dug into Bundy during FAAB this week and I didn’t know how bad he’s been.

7:45
Jeff Zimmerman: As for the question, I’d drop for Keuchel

7:45
John Olerud’s Helmet: Dear Mr Zimmerman, How are you? Thank you for your weekly chats they are always greatly appreciated. How much more valuable does Yordan Alvarez become next year now that he’ll be OF eligible to start the season in most leagues? Love, John Oleruds Helmet

7:50
Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry for the confusion. First on Alvarez’s value: His value should jump ~$3 in auction value, so maybe a round.

7:51
Jeff Zimmerman: I think his health will impact his value more. If he can stay on the field, he might be a 2nd to 3rd rounder.

7:51
JuanGOATo: It is sometimes tempting to just go to baseballsavant, look at statcast numbers, and rely entirely on them when it comes to evaluating hitters. Obviously, proper analysis requires more than that. What are some tools you use to decide how well a particular players expected stats are likely to predict their future performance. E.g. guys that can’t adjust to the shift seem to have perennially overinflated expected #s.

7:51
Jeff Zimmerman: All my in-season analysis begins here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/ideal-in-season-overall-talent-evaluatio…

7:52
Jeff Zimmerman: Does the hitter have good plate discipline (not Jo Adell) and can the batter hit the ball hard and in the air? If they can do them all, roster away.

7:53
Jeff Zimmerman: Focus on good hitters.

7:53
Injured Mondesi: I hate myself for drafting A. Mondesi on a team. Just wanted to complain. Thanks!

7:54
Jeff Zimmerman: I have him in a semi-high stakes league and it’s driving me nuts. I could have gone so many other directions in the 2nd round

7:54
Baseball Yeti: Gonsolin seems to be going backwards in terms of getting stretched out. Are you trying to hold him in 12-team? Or open to streaming the spot

7:54
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m trying to hold, but losing patience

7:55
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s a mess. I’m giving him to the ASG and then looking to move on.

7:55
Bd: Dallas keuchel is on the waiver wire. Im streaming skubal, cease, and mike minor. Should i drop one  of them, losing the k’s, for a more stable keuchel?

7:55
Jeff Zimmerman: I would just stream the best three.

7:56
Pitching injuries: Hi Jeff, are there any minor league starters you’d be stashing in AL-only leagues? Will Luis Patino get called up again soon?

7:56
Jeff Zimmerman: No, I don’t stash pitchers

7:56
au3rupy3: Is Glasnow still an ace in dynasty league at this point?huge upside but only reach 100+ innings once.

7:56
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s never been an ace. He’s just fustrating

7:56
Tom: late arrival here, % FAB bid on Jesus Sanchez in NL only?  Thanks

7:57
Jeff Zimmerman: You are probably looking at 50% or more.

7:57
Steve: Sam Long worth a significant FAB investment in an NLonly league?

7:57
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes along with all mixed leagues.

7:57
Bill: Glasnow was dropped I’m a 12 team 5×5 mixed. Considering he might return in August what % of FAAB would you drop on him if you could place him on the IL? Thanks

7:58
Jeff Zimmerman: 1%, maybe 2%. He’s not a priority for me.

7:58
Kuff6: Zack Thompson legit?

7:58
Jeff Zimmerman: As a 3 IP starter, sure.

7:59
AL Guy: AL only- Have to drop one backup closer – Sulser, Sborz, or Cisnero

7:59
Jeff Zimmerman: Sulser

7:59
Ratio Protection Agency: Do you trust Rich Hill at home vs Boston?  He was fantastic for a while until the last two starts

7:59
Jeff Zimmerman: Do you trust Rich Hill …? No, not at all

7:59
Mugghead: Thanks for taking the time. H2H points league: Cobb or Stripling the rest of the way?

8:00
Jeff Zimmerman: It’s close … Cobb

8:00
Yoenis: We dropping Gomber now..? How serious does that injury look?

8:00
Jeff Zimmerman: Must move on

8:00
G Money: Oviedo or Skubal this week as two start guys? I like Oviedo’s opponents more than Skubal’s.

8:02
Jeff Zimmerman: Skubal and it’s not close. Oviedo’s 4.6 BB/9 is a WHIP killer and is bringing up his ERA and lack of Wins

8:02
Jeff Zimmerman: The problem is that Skubal isn’t much better at 4.2 BB/9

8:02
Who you got?: Hold Votto or pick up Ty France?

8:03
Jeff Zimmerman: Votto

8:03
G Money: Duran with another bomb down in Worcester, you think Bos will bring him up this weekend when they play the Yankee, and bat him lead off?

8:03
Jeff Zimmerman: No, they’ll call him up mid-week with a minor opponent

8:04
Chantanella: 12-tm, Roto, 6×6 (OPS & QS), dynasty

I’m battling it out in the top 3 right now. Do I hold onto Rich Hill for now knowing he’s not even a future thought or do I add one of Patrick Sandoval or Alex Cobb?

Sandoval more of a long-term play obviously who appears ready to finally help this year (16.5% SwStr).

8:04
Jeff Zimmerman: Add Cobb and Sandoval over hill

8:04
Who you got?: Hold Domingo German or pick up Wade Miley?

8:05
Jeff Zimmerman: Both are close in talent, but I like Miley’s GB% (56%)

8:05
KCBbq: Is it worth dropping Dunning for either Ober or Manning?

8:05
Jeff Zimmerman: They are all similar in my rankings. Roster based on the upcoming schedule.

8:06
Bandit: Espn league w/OBP: Gary Sanchez or Yermin ROS at Catcher? Thanks!

8:06
Jeff Zimmerman: Sanchez

8:06
JP: Who is the better stash for NFC?  Adell or Duran?

8:06
Jeff Zimmerman: Duran, Adell is still striking out too much

8:08
Jeff Zimmerman: I create expectations based off projections. He’s supposed to be at .280 AVG, 8 HR, 8 SB

8:08
Jeff Zimmerman: Ozzie Albies is close (more power)

8:09
Jeff Zimmerman: Kolton Wong (.265, 6 HR, 9 SB)

8:10
Jeff Zimmerman: Amed Rosario (.278, 6 HR, 7 SB)

8:11
Jeff Zimmerman: Kyle Tucker is at .268, 15, 10.

8:11
Torrid Torrens: Saw Torrens on the faab list. Hit another homer today. Him or Jake Rogers for c2?

8:12
Jeff Zimmerman: go with Torrens but plan on the hot streak ending

8:12
Guest: Time to cut bait on Moustakas?

8:12
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes depending on the options.

8:12
Johnny5Alive: Need pop in NL only, want to bid on Sanchez. I know small sample, but his big league k rate is close to 40% after getting it down under 20 in the minors. Will the Marlins keep giving him opportunity or will he get sent down at some point?

8:12
Jeff Zimmerman: I think if he shows progress, he’ll stay up

8:12
Dave: Thank you for taking the time to answer my question. I appreciate you and your work.

8:13
Jeff Zimmerman: You’re welcome

8:13
Spencer: Looking to pick up a 4th OFer off waivers in a 12 team 5×5(OBP) mixed league. Dominic Smith or Hunter Renfroe ROS?

8:14
Jeff Zimmerman: Smith for now, but his playing time may take a hit with the Mets getting healthy

8:14
media maven: Has Widom’s 15 minutes of fame passed?

8:14
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes it has, he’s playing half time right now.

8:14
Cookie: Will Carrasco be an asset in a 12 teamer this year/

8:14
Jeff Zimmerman: No

8:14
Jeff Zimmerman: I’ve given up hope on seeing him pitch one inning

8:15
Bad to Worse: Bellinger or Josh Rojas?

8:15
Jeff Zimmerman: I still have hope for Bellinger, not much, but some

8:15
Guest: Finally getting around to dropping Danny Santana from my Utility spot.  FAAB choices are very thin in my AL league.  My choices are Daz Cameron, Mazara, Toro-Hernandez, Taylor Jones or Jarrod Dyson.  What order would you put them in?

8:16
Jeff Zimmerman: Go with Toro for the next two weeks. Bregman is supposed to be back after the ASG

8:16
LFC Mike: Thoughts on Kolby Allard after 4 starts?  20K/4BB

8:17
Jeff Zimmerman: I’ve written him up in the last two FAAB reports. I feel he’s a must-add to see where he ends up.

8:17
Guest: Is Snell really droppable in 11 tm roto redraft with QS?

8:17
Jeff Zimmerman: Probably depending on the replacement

8:17
Ducky: Need to drop one in dynasty: Wisdom, J. Rojas, Soroka, Manoah…or Torres. Want to talk me off the ledge about Torres?

8:17
Jeff Zimmerman: Wisdom

8:17
Scotty Mac: Any trade risk with Merrifield? AL-Only where if a player gets traded to the NL you get nothing.

8:18
Jeff Zimmerman: No, the Royals think they are contenders

8:18
Mullins-agin: What is going on with C.Mullins? Is this sustainable??

8:19
Jeff Zimmerman: He made a major change (quit switch-hitting) and is better. I but most of the change.

8:19
Biff: Mcneil or Ty France?

8:19
Jeff Zimmerman: NcNiell

8:19
Dan: 10th place and sinking in 14-team H2H. Time to dismantle or wait until all-star break and deal with teams making stretch run? Thanks for the chat/advice.

8:20
Jeff Zimmerman: I’d make the decision at the trade deadline.

8:20
Travy: Do you like Harold Ramirez?  Worth a faab in 12 team mix?

8:20
Jeff Zimmerman: I have him on several 12’s has my bench OFer. Not great, but plays every day

8:21
BoSox Truther: Hi Jeff, first time/long time. I was wondering if you had any thoughts about when Jarren Duran may get the call? I’m a bit wary that Bloom will ship him off to the Olympics.

8:21
Jeff Zimmerman: No idea

8:21
Red Faced: N.Senzel dropped in a 12 team roto. Is he a worthy IL stash?

8:21
Jeff Zimmerman: Move on if you need the spot for someone better.

8:22
Pitcher: Bailey Ober hasn’t pitched more than 4 innings or a lot in the minors. Is he really worth picking up based off his walk rate?

8:22
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, to see if he can get his innings up

8:22
Donnie: Hopefully Springer and Tucker will be back this week. Which two do I drop to make space: Aguilar, Belt or Gleyber?

8:23
Jeff Zimmerman: Aguilar and Belt

8:24
Jeff Zimmerman: Irvin for the two starts. Flexen has a nice one start this week and two next week

8:24
Jeff Zimmerman: Cobb

8:24
Sweet Lou: What kind of bid would you put on Trivino in a 12tm OC Qualifier if you were hurting for saves?

8:25
Jeff Zimmerman: 10% Possibly even more

8:25
Guest: Fulmer a must add?

8:25
Jeff Zimmerman: No, I like what Soto has been doing

8:25
ScottTINSTAAPP: Suggested bid $ on Michael Fulmer in NFBC 15 team?

8:26
Jeff Zimmerman: 3%, I don’t see going too much

8:26
Ugh: Time to cut bait on Torres? He’s providing next to nothing right now.

8:26
Jeff Zimmerman: I get so many of these questions of: “Should I cut player X”

8:27
Jeff Zimmerman: I need the three to four best options.

8:27
Heinz: Jeff would you grab Wong for Carlson? It’s avg obp league

8:27
Jeff Zimmerman: I would if I needed steals

8:28
Fg23: Drop fletcher for France?

8:28
Jeff Zimmerman: God yes

8:28
Matt: Allard or Manning? 12 team NFBC OC

8:28
Jeff Zimmerman: Strangely, I like Allard right now

8:28
Fan: Big thanks for doing these chats! Incredibly helpful.

8:29
Vic: Appreciate the chat.  Thanks

8:29
Jeff Zimmerman: Thanks and talk to everyone next week. I need to give my bids and the news a once over.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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