Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – May 19th, 2021

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Thanks for coming out, let’s talk some baseball!

Guy: You holding Nick Senzel in a 14 teamer?

Paul Sporer: Depends who we’re picking up in his place

Jim Leyland Palmer: If you were Al Avila, would you extend Candy? If so what does that look like?

Paul Sporer: He’s 27 yrs old and under team control through ’23, so an extension probably wouldn’t be that expensive given his age & production to date

Paul: Chances Yordan Alvarez gets OF eligibility?

Paul Sporer: Very low

Bobby: Who is the better option moving forward between Gary Sanchez and Grandal?

Paul Sporer: Grandal for sure

Mike: Do you have faith in Bohm bouncing back?

Paul Sporer: Yes, he’s not a 66 wRC+, though he might not be ready to breakout this year. Might be just an OK this year and then next year he’ll be cheap and we buy for the bounceback breakout

Greg: Jazz Chisholm is a top ____ dynasty 2B.

Paul Sporer: Top 10 for sure

Jim Leyland Palmer: Has the optimal amount of IL spots for a league changed in your eyes after this season so far? What do you think the best amount of IL spots is?

Paul Sporer: It isn’t just this season, tbh. Probably should add 1 more spot in lgs that use IL spots. I don’t want TOOOO many IL spots, though, or else ppl just hoard talent and there’s no one on the wire

Vader: I need bullpen help, saves 7 pts, holds 3….please rank Fulmer, Antone, Dolis, Robles….thanks Paul!

Paul Sporer: I’ll take Robles over Dolis, otherwise you had the right order w/Fulmer & Antone at 1-2

Jim: Where do you rank Zac Plesac among dynasty SPs?

Paul Sporer: Top 30

Bobby: Ohtani played in the OF in one game so far…what are the chances he becomes OF eligible?

Paul Sporer: Assuming he needs the standard 10, I’d say pretty low unfortunately

Eric: Any insight into Kiriloff’s injury?  I know he had been taking BP, but I keep seeing mention that he will need surgery.  I thought this was a simple wrist sprain.  If he does require surgery, what is the outlook for next year?

Paul Sporer: I believe he’s starting a rehab today, no?

Eric: Prior to Duffy’s injury who would you have preferred ROS – Mize or Duffy?

Paul Sporer: I’d have preferred Duffy pre-injury bc of his K upside v. Mize

Dave: Who is a starting pitcher you’d look to target due to recent performances?

Paul Sporer: That’s a little too vague, gimme a few you’re looking at it and I can pick one

Teddy: Thoughts on Mcclanahan? Dynasty upside?

Paul Sporer: There is some relief risk long-term, though it could be late-inning relief. Of course, in TB that doesn’t mean anything with regards to saves. Super intriguing arm, but I’m not necessarily trying to load up on him in dynasty lgs

Jim Leyland Palmer: How you feelin about running Montas out there tonight? He’s been a bit better and better of late, but still HOU

Paul Sporer: I haven’t sat him at all this year. Outside of the dud v. LAD to open his year, he has a 3.66 ERA in 7 starts.

Jon: I feel like no one ever talks about Kyle Lewis. He hasn’t been close to his rookie numbers. Or so it feels like.

Paul Sporer: Ya I felt he was overlooked a bit in drafts as I regularly had him atop my OF list into the middle rounds of a draft when it seemed like he should’ve been gone so I ended up with a few shares. He hasn’t been great thus far, but he got a late start so I’m not too worried about him

Holden: Would you swoop Grandal over Vazquez in a H2H 10-tm OPS league? my team is already having avg troubles (in addition to OPS). weighing Vazquez’ full time gig, avg and SB vs upside of Grandal

Paul Sporer: Ya if AVG is a legit need, then I think you gotta consider and likely pull the trigger on that move

Guest: Burns or Giolto rest of season?

Paul Sporer: Burnes for me. I have updated my SP rankings for Patreon members (as well as my Catcher ranks, too… rest of the positions should be done by early next wk)

Guest: more excited for the framber valdez or elieser hernandez comeback?

Paul Sporer: Framber for sure. I’m concerned that Elieser isn’t that good

Holden: How high is your concern level on Morton? I know he isnt the ace he once was but he has to be better than this right?

Paul Sporer: I’m at like a 6, so there’s some concern, but it’s not grave concerns. Velo and whiffs are still there, but too many BB, H, and HR. I’d sit him down on reserve before an outright cut at this pt

Vader: WIlliam Contreras, Zunino or Gomes ROS in H2H?

Paul Sporer: I ranked it Gomes/Contreras/Z yesterday and then Z dropped 2 HRs on my face… that doesn’t really change my ranking, though

CaseyMchehehe: Dolis or Fairbanks nsvh league?

Paul Sporer: Ah Dolis is back. OK, well to the person I said Robles over Dolis, I want to change that as I thought Dolis was still IL’d. I’m also picking him over Fairbanks here

Curtis: Odds the Mariners keep Lewis AND Haniger along with Kelenic and JRod and utilize the DH to provide days off the field? Whenever JRod gets there that is…

Paul Sporer: Let’s get JRod to that majors and keep Haniger healthy before we worry about how that’s all gonna play out. It does set up as a great OF/DH quartet, though, if they can nail it

Kyle: Hi Paul, as always, thanks for all you do! Question about Savant. I know that many of the stats on there are descriptive, not predictive. Do you know if xWOBA is predictive? Or is it mainly descriptive?

Paul Sporer: Thank you for the kind words, Kyle! Gotta turn this one over to my guy Alex as he wrote it up a few yrs back: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-in-season-predictiveness-of-xwoba/

Guest: Is yaz a top 30 of moving forward?

Paul Sporer: I’d say more top 40. That’s where I had him coming into the season and while there has been some shuffling, I’m not sure he’s jump 10 spots. I can commit to top 40

Brandon: Standard 5×5. Would you drop any of Morton/Gray/Alzolay/Maeda for McClanahan?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so. If McClanahan is still available, that tells me it’s a 10- or 12-teamer so those guys all still have a better outlook

Guest: who might help most while trout is down: cj cron, bader, schwarber, happ, pham?

Paul Sporer: I’d go Bader/Happ if you want to mix in some SBs, too, but Cron will likely be the most outright productive player with his power and great home park

Bill: 7-inning double headers are stupid. Wins are stupid. But why shouldn’t minimum innings for win be 4 innings in a doubleheader? And 5 innings min for a QS? and 2 innings to qualify for save, rather than 3?

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure. Seems insane that those thresholds aren’t changed for 7-inn. gms. Can’t just lop off 2 innings and change nothing else. Makes no sense

Al Gone Quinn: Who you got btwn Sanchez and Garver?

Paul Sporer: Garver

Guest: What’s up with Matt Chapman? Should he be playing in 12 team mixed leagues?

Paul Sporer: The baseline with these Qs is that it depends who you’re replacing the player in question with, but for Chapman specifically, I’m sticking with him. He’s actually coming out of it late with a solid .324/.390/.485 in his last 20 gms (77 PA).

Marnell: Ian Happ, thoughts on him turning his season around?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Happ fan, so I’m buying low where applicable.

Guest: Is stroman a sell high pitcher? Or can he keep this going?

Paul Sporer: Ratios are his calling card so while I’d project more of a mid-3.00s ERA rest of way than the high-2.00s we’ve seen thus far, I do believe he’ll be a WHIP asset throughout. I’d be open to selling high if his lack of Ks are something you want to replace, but otherwise, let him do his thing and be a ratios god

billyjojimbob: The Austin Riley Breakout is about to happen or is it another tease?

Paul Sporer: I’m happy with the production we’ve gotten to date, but this isn’t the full on breakout yet bc the power isn’t there (.142 ISO). I’d trade 20-30 pts of AVG for 60+ pts of ISO as I think he can be a .260/30 HR kinda guy, but again, I can’t complain about where we are thus far

Zac Gallen: Am I done for the year?

Paul Sporer: Not officially, but I’m super nervous

HarryLime: Will Urias be on an innings limit?

Paul Sporer: I mean, he wont get 200+, so to that end, yes. But I think they actually take the reins off him a bit and get him to 170-180

Holden: Are you a David Peterson fan? xERA and Sierra/ xFIP are painting two different pictures

Paul Sporer: I like the improved K% for sure, but I imagine the consistent hard contact and homers are fueling the elevated xERA. I wouldn’t pay for the SIERA, I’m still viewing him as a mid-4.00s ERA baseline

Big Tuna: Brady Singer: is he anything more than a streamer in 12 team leagues?

Paul Sporer: I’ve been pretty consistently starting him, tbh, but he’s at least a team streamer for me which is a step above a standard streamer as I’ll bench Singer when not using him as opposed to just cutting for that roster spot. He’s still working off that first start (3.06 ERA/1.25 WHIP since… nearly a run and .10 WHIP pts lower than his composite)

1B Help: I’m in need of a 1B upgrade in my home league (currently have Bell & Cron). Outside of Freddie who is unobtainable, what 1B guys are you targeting in trades?

Paul Sporer: I’d buy high on Jared Walsh or target Matt Olson, though I think a healthy Cron will be pretty sufficient, tbh.

Guest: Is wheeler a top 15 pitcher ROS?

Paul Sporer: Well he hasn’t been one thus far, so no

Al Gone Quinn: Sort of hit the MI low cost lottery with 2 tickets, Hampson and Josh Rojas. Do you see them keeping this up?

Paul Sporer: Nicely done! I was a huge Hampson guy a couple yrs ago as you may recall if you listen to the pod and then he flopped until that insane September. I can definitely buy what we’re seeing from him. I think we’ve all been waiting for Rojas to come through and we’re finally seeing his skills in play. I can see both remaining viable and startable all year

Guest: Willie Calhoun is rostered in less than a quarter of leagues. Why?

Paul Sporer: I think part of it was entering the yr UT-Only. Consider how good the UT-Only pool has been. That means that like half or more of most lgs are already locked there with Ohtani, JD, Cruz, Stanton, Franmil, Alvarez and then Yermin joined the mix v early in the year as one of the first breakouts.

So that’s 7 tms w/a better UT already and no place for Calhoun. In a standard 12, you can probably assume at least 2 of the remaining 5 tms have a good UT situation with surplus from somewhere on their roster. That leaves just a few teams to even consider Calhoun until very recently when he hit OF elig. at the outlets where he hadn’t had it. I’ll be eager to see if his number jumps a good bit here in the near future at ESPN where he’s on just 19% of rosters.

Travioli: How real is Adolis garcia? I know he’s not going to stay this hot but is he a hold or a sell high?

Paul Sporer: There is devastating cold streak coming at some point in the summer. 28% K/5% BB/31% HR-FB just can’t hold up for 6 months as a 153 wRC+. I can see him remaining about league average rest of way bc he has some legit pwr (think he can maintain .200+ ISO), but he’ll be cut before season’s end in lots of 10 and 12 tm leagues

K: Winker or Hader/Canha in a dynasty with walks included

Paul Sporer: Both Hader/Canha? Them alllll day. Winker is a platoon goon. Absolutely decimates righties, but his inability to hit lefties caps his overall upside. I’d take Canha straight up v. him

Big Tuna: Is this the beginning of a Sano breakthrough or should people be selling high?

Paul Sporer: He is who we thought he was: a poor AVG power stud. He’s hit sub-.200 before so while I don’t see the .171 maintaining, it certainly wouldn’t surprise me. Meanwhile, he will keep a mid-30s HR pace per 600 PA, though we can’t count on him getting to the 600 PA

Bobby: Does it make sense to drop Alec Bohm for Dylan Moore because of the additional position eligibility for Moore?  The BA is atrocious but other hitting stats and 8 SB are not bad.

Paul Sporer: I don’t think I would. Maybe if I REALLY need the SBs and have the protection to take on his AVG. You acknowledge the terrible AVG in your Q, but I think a lot of us in fantasy don’t truly calculate the damage it does bc it’s not as easy to visualize like we can with counting categories. Unless you have excellent AVG elsewhere, the steals gains would likely be offset by the AVG losses, leaving you where you started in the standings and with the worse player talent-wise

cardz: I know you are a big Bader guy. What does a full season line of Bader’s new found batting profile look like? Is he a 20/20 guy now that he’s striking out 50% less? thanks!!

Paul Sporer: Yes, he definitely has a 20-20 vibe. I looooove the new contact-heavy approach. Even when he was K’ing a ton, he wasn’t just up there flailing as he always had decent swinging strike rates. I’m pretty excited by this, though fully aware that it’s still early

Guest: What do you think Randy Arozarena’s final 5×5 line will be? Steamer said .268/28HR/19SB, do you think he will make it?

Paul Sporer: I believe he definitely can. He hasn’t been elite thus far, but he certainly hasn’t been bad, either. A solid week-to-10 day hot streak would get him right back on track for that Steamer pace

Timothy: Thanks for your superb work Paul!
Chisholm finishes as top 3 2B or Albies finishes outside of top 3?

Paul Sporer: Thanks for hanging out & reading my stuff! I think Albies finishing outside is more likely just bc top 3 is really hard. I’m an Albies guy and would definitely be open to buying at a discount right now, but it’s not hard to see him rallying to have a good season and still finishing out of the top 3

Dan: The biggest question I have is can you beat my friend OleBallGame in MLB The Show?

Paul Sporer: We absolutely need to do a series! Tell him to come through on the stream or DM me and we can hammer out some time for a 3-game set!

zurzles: Is Gavin Lux a dude now?.327/7/2/12/0 in May

Paul Sporer: I don’t want to overreact to the positive run as much as those against him overreacted to the negative run but he has been expected to be a dude after a great prospect run and I just couldn’t quit him bc of just 200 PA, no matter how bad. 57 PA doesn’t erase the 200, but those who had lost or were losing hope finally got to see him do something in the bigs. Now we see if this is the spark to him being a consistent producer

BD: Roster crunch coming: Would you keep Cease or Luzardo? And what to do when Sixto Sanchez is back?

Paul Sporer: You have to keep Cease. He’s producing and there are skills to bet on. Luzardo was overrated coming into the season as a top 100 pick, but he’s not this bad. Things will probably sort themselves out w/someone else getting hurt or underperforming by the time Sixto is back. Especially w/all the dang injuries we’re getting this year (not just confirmation bias, injury rate is definitely up this year)

Steve: Thank you for all your help. Jesus Sanchez (mia) thoughts on his stats ROS when called up?

Paul Sporer: I was actually kind excited for him when he came up last yr and thought he could make some noise pwr-wise. He was a dud but you know I’m not giving up on 29 PA. I think he can be a power source quickly if he comes up and gets an everyday or very close to everyday role

Rachel: Shall we keep Ohtani and enjoy what he’s doing as a hitter or trade him now while his value is off the charts assuming he gets injured?

Paul Sporer: I don’t know why we’d assume he’s going to get injured. I know he’s had some issues, but I’m not just waiting for the injury shoe to drop on him. He’s the best player in baseball this year, fantasy and real life, so I think I’m just going for the ride. If he gets hurt, shit happens. Trout just got hurt. Tatis, Soto, and Acuña have been hurt this year. Everyone is at risk. Some guys are higher if they have chronic issues, but I don’t think Ohtani is one of those.

BringBackDeSpanielHair: Nooo! I missed the best time to get questions answered!

Gimmee your thoughts on Castillo last night? Stuff looked back, locations still a little wild?

Paul Sporer: One bad pitch to Alex Dickerson. Definitely an encouraging start. Hell, I started him in Coors so I haven’t come close to giving up

MadBum’s Dirt Bike: Ohtani has actually logged 2 games in the OF. I can “stay in the game to get his next PA” become a thing and him get to 10 games

Paul Sporer: That’d be SOOO sick

Kate: I’ve noticed a bunch of starters (particularly young guys, Alzolay and Dunning are the two I can think of off the top of my head) getting pulled REALLY early so far this year.  Like before 80 pitches and 5 innings when they’re pitching well early.  Obviously teams are moving to shorter outings as a whole (third time through the order, etc.), but there also seems to be some general concern about overextending arms (esp young ones) after the cluster that was 2020.  Do you think this is something that slowly goes away as the 2021 season goes on?  Next year?  Or is this more of a permanent thing?

Paul Sporer: I think we knew it’d be MORE of a thing this year given last year’s weirdness. But I do think it’s more of a longer term espec. w/younger guys. Teams are fine to build a guy slowly in the majors w/4-5 IP outings. It’s becoming the norm.

Yerminator: I passed on Vlad Jr for Moncada in a mixed league draft this year. I have no question, only shame 🙁

Paul Sporer: I can’t say I was banging the Vlad Jr. drum. I was concerned about paying full price bc he was 1B-only and I liked some many other 1B going much later, including my biggest mid-round target: Jared Walsh. I understand having some concerns about when the pwr would come to fruition, but credit to those who stayed committed to the elite core skills and paid top dollar to bet on the come

Dr. Funk: Haniger or Meadows ROS? OBP league.   What range SP do you think either could fetch?

Paul Sporer: Haniger and I’m always reluctant to answer those “what could I get for” Qs, bc they are impossible to really answer. It truly depends on what your trade partners will give you and every league differs in that respect. You might not even get to trade w/the biggest Haniger fan in your lg bc they’re full in the OF or they don’t have pitching to trade. So you gotta shop and see what you can get. You should get an impact arm for sure, someone you’re starting virtually every time out (maybe sitting at Coors, stuff like that).

First Burst: I foolishly put all my eggs in the Blue Jays basket and took Bichette, Guerrero and Biggio.  I guess I should be happy that two of the three are performing but what about Biggio?  Whats a guy to do here?  Sit on him and hope he breaks out or try to sell him for a pitcher, like Rich Hill or someone in that tier?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m not sure you’re going to garner much sympathy for the 1 dud given how the other two are performing! As long as Rich Hill or a Rich Hill-type substance will help you, you can make the move

Guest: Not a fantasy q. But is ohtani the MVP so far?

Paul Sporer: 100%

Kate: Senzel 2 for 7 on the bases so far and now racking up leg injuries.  Are the steals gone?  Or maybe coming back once fully healthy?  Sprint speed still really good.

Paul Sporer: I can see him getting a red light for now w/the health and then more of a yellow light once healthy and he’ll have to prove to the Cincy mgmt that he can make the right decisions on the bases. It might be worth looking into his CS to see if it’s been him, bad luck, or a mix of both. I did that piece on Edman’s CS this offseason and realized it was some pretty rough luck so maybe I’ll do the same for Senzel. At any rate, w/the health right now, I’m concerned about the SBs regardless of his CS luck

Finch Scout: Had Pineda, Ynoa, and Stanton go down this week with Gleyber, Springer, and Kirilloff already on the IL. 10 team league with 4 IL slots – anyone droppable? Even with Gleyber coming back I still have an IL player in an active spot

Paul Sporer: That is SOOO rough. Ynoa is a definite cut in 10-teamer. Kirilloff just went out on rehab so hang on for now. Could see cutting Pineda if you really need the spot, but the thigh abscess isn’t an inherently scary injury assuming it heals as expected

BrendanMcKayDylanWalsh: Hi Paul! Montas, Kikuchi, or David Peterson ROS? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Montas easily for me

Finch Scout: Drop David Peralta for Yermin?

Paul Sporer: Sure

12 5×5: kyle gibson and rich hill keepers?

Paul Sporer: You mean like hang onto this year? Bc no chance they’re keepers for ’22

LFC Mike: Hi Paul. Would appreciate your thought on Eloy Jimenez post injury. Thank you..

Paul Sporer: I’m open to buying low in a dynasty format

Jay T: Is Giolito really an ace?  He throws his slider at around 15% of the time, and it’s not a really good pitch.  His change is great, but his fastball is not blazing.  I watch his starts and feel he’s a number 2 or 3.

Paul Sporer: I think the swing-and-miss excellence keeps him at least a #2, but I understand pushing back on the ace anointment he received this offseason.

Adam: Mike Moustakas: He started hot, went on the IL for a non-Covid illness and now his barrels, swinging strike %, and other stats are down on the season. Do you think he’s got a 30 HR season and top 10 2B season left in him or do you think this is the start of the decline?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think it’s the beginning of his decline or anything. I’m not terribly concerned w/where he’s at right now

Travioli: How confident are you in guys coming back from TJ i.e. Severino & Thor?

Paul Sporer: Not much at all. I really don’t buy into TJ returnees their first year back. The are very inconsistent and often the dud every 3-4 gms is enough to erase the good of the others

Prospector: Aaron Hicks cut-able in a 12 team mixer?  Even if he avoids surgery, wrist injuries sap power…

Paul Sporer: Yes, he’s a cut right now

zurzles: It’s hard for me to care about Winker’s .588 OPS vs LHP when he’s hitting .350 with 8 HR in spite of it

Paul Sporer: It affects his playing time, though. I’d still take that Canha/Hader deal ALLLLL day

Mister Puppy: I know it’s not fantasy but there’s just no way in hell TLR makes it to the trade deadline at the helm of this CWS team, right? He literally sided with the team that THREW AT HIS OWN GUY.

Paul Sporer: The hire was absolutely baffling at the time and gets worse by the day. Going at Lance Lynn today, too.

For He’s a Jolly Good Oberkfello: So, lost Trout. Worth cutting Gurriel Jr. or Swanson (have positional coverage) in a keep forever, 12 team, points league for Marsh and a prayer?

Paul Sporer: No no no. Gurriel is on one right now. 4 straight multi-hit gms!

Micah: One word to describe Ynoa’s injury?

Paul Sporer: Stupid

Paul Sporer: And I’m not gonna pretend I don’t get mad and act irrationally at times, too. So I call it stupid as someone who would do something that stupid, not from my ivory tower

Howdy: Gotta start Logan Gilbert tonight v Detroit, right?

Paul Sporer: Yes indeed. Tigers are hitting p well of late, but you still have to attack them in streaming

Yerminator: Should I even have been holding a bat with the count 3-0?

Paul Sporer: Swing all day, babyyyyy

Steve: Who do you think will replace Ynoa for the Braves?

Paul Sporer: Maybe that Tucker Davidson who debuted yesterday. Or Bryse Wilson.

Casey Mize: Am I a future #1 or am I more likely to settle for being a #2 because of my strikeout rate?

Paul Sporer: The latter. I’ve compared his stat profile to peak Jordan Zimmermann. PEAK… not Detroit lol.

Isolated Thinker: Have you ever had a player contact you on social media about a piece you did?

Paul Sporer: Only once… Blake Snell corrected Nick and I regarding his repertoire and his best pitch, lol

pop: is lance lynn too much to pay for jazz in redraft?

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes

Dennis: Justin Upton droppable in a 12 team, 5 OFer mixed league?

Paul Sporer: Yes, he might get passed around the lg a bit with his hot and cold streaks, but he’s not a must hold if you want someone off the wire

Paul Sporer: OK, I have to get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!