Paul Sporer’s (Late) Baseball Chat – June 9th, 2021

Paul Sporer: Weclome! Pardon my tardiness (and early departure… got about 30 mins), but I didn’t want to leave y’all empty-handed this week!

Kevin gausman: If mlb cracks down on foreign substances, should I be worried?

Paul Sporer: I imagine most of the league has some concern, hard to the amount of worry each pitcher should have

Dr. Jones: How worried are you about Trevor Story returning to form after the injury?

Paul Sporer: Not terribly, he’s a buy low for me

KleShreen: How many home runs will Eric Haase lead the AL with?

Paul Sporer: 69

Tony: What do you think Votto is going to do ROS?

Paul Sporer: Be pretty mediocre unfortunately

Ray of Hope: Better numbers from now ’til ROS, R.Ray or L.Castillo?

Paul Sporer: Daaang that’s tough…. I’ll go Ray. I’m still buying Castillo, but I think Ray has made tangible changes to sustain a good level of play. #yogapants

Sam: Paul Fry or Simms or Kopech in a saves plus holds league?

Paul Sporer: Sims for me

Tom: Just wanted to say that I enjoy your work! Thank you!

Paul Sporer: Ty so much! I really appreciate that

Carl: What is happening to Nick Solak and Lowe?

Paul Sporer: Contact & BABIP for Lowe that should smooth out while Solak isn’t too far off expectations

Tony: Roto, 11 teams: Would you trade Bichette for Correa and Rodon?

Paul Sporer: I would if I need an arm

Seeing Red: Better ROS, L.Castillo or Bundy?

Paul Sporer: Castillo, but keep an eye on Bundy being w/Stassi. Hard to always discern how important a C is, but it’s not NOTHING and he has insane splits between Stassi & Suzuki

Big Tuna: Mitch Haniger has had a rough last month. Was the beginning of the season a total fluke or just a touch flukey?

Paul Sporer: A touch. He was always going to smooth out. If he’s healthy, we’re happy

ScottTINSTAAPP: You think Cisnero might be able to be the #1 guy when Fulmer comes back?

Paul Sporer: They seemed to really like Fulmer, so I’d say no

Napkin: Will Kelenic have any sort of impact this season?

Paul Sporer: Hard to say for sure, but I’m holding in a lot of leagues at this point

ScottTINSTAAPP: Looking up at you in the Main but I’m coming! Was a nice 69 spots behind you last night! Great start for you, well done

Paul Sporer: Thank you! It’s been fun. Sooooo much work to be done, but better to play from ahead than behind

Guest: Please Rank’em ROS Roto: Willi Contreras, Haase, Alfaro?

Paul Sporer: Hmmmmm…. I’m actually gonna go Haase first bc his non-C days are in the outfield so that extra volume help. Love non-catching catchers. Then Alfaro/Contreras

Balt Shuffle: Chances H.Harvey takes over as closer for the O’s this year?

Paul Sporer: 35% chance!

BrendanMcKayDylanWalsh: Hi Paul! Thanks again for doing these chats. Thoughts on Tucker Davidson please. Are you picking him over McLanahan and/or Manoah in a 12 team league?

Paul Sporer: Yw! I am intrigued Davidson enough to scoop him in a couple lgs this week. We watched him in our Patreon Watch Party last week and I think the group came away impressed. I wouldn’t go for him over those 2, though.

Sad Castillo Owner: Better ROS, L. Castillo or J. Lucchesi?

Paul Sporer: Stop it. LOL

KleShreen: Do you think it would be worth it to drop, say, a Carlos Martinez, to pick up Chris Sale for a possible post-all star break return?

Paul Sporer: Temper expectation for TJ returners, but getting rid of CMart is totally fine so if you can afford a lottery ticket, do it

Proegler: 14 team mixed league where you can keep 5…time to drop Kelenic or keep holding and hope he’s back up soon?

Paul Sporer: I’m hanging on. I’m giving it 2 weeks unless I’m just fooooorced by a roster crunch

Kate: With Jacoby Jones getting DFA’d, do we finally see Baddoo get a shot at everyday (or close to it) at bats?  I’m pretty psyched by the adjustments he’s made over the last month to dial in the approach and the power/speed will obviously plan.

Paul Sporer: Still see occasional days off vL but this definitely amps up Baddoo’s PT and I agree that his new plate approach has been really encouraging

Michael: Tucker Davidson have NL-Only Value? More than Gore at this point?

Paul Sporer: Yes for sure. The lgs I scooped him were mixed so def like him in NL

Guest: Dynasty categories scoring. Trade Correa, Bart, Caleb smith for Grisham and skubal?

Paul Sporer: I’m OK w/that, sure!

Kevin: what about buying low on story in a keeper league? Would you be concerned about a dip in performance after leaving Colorado?

Paul Sporer: A trade out would hurt home but help road and probably end up close to neutral. I’d still gladly scoop in keeper leagues, too

Alek Manoah: Will I outperform Robbie ray ROS?

Paul Sporer: Probably not. Ray has been pretty good most of his career and this newfound control is really helping limit BB. The HRs are definitely too high and worrisome re: maintaining a low-3.00s ERA, but I’ll still take him over the rook (and not bc Manoah was hit last time out)

Slapshot: Trey Mancini has to have the AL Comeback Player of the Year award wrapped up by now, doesn’t he?  How close do you see him getting to his 2019 line (.276/35HR/106R/97RBI) by the end of the year?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, damn-near! So happy for him. He has a great chance to match or exceed it. It hasn’t even fully warmed up in Camden yet

Tony: How do you stash someone like Jarren Duran? Has not played MILB in a month. Do you evaluate team USA stats or past performance?

Paul Sporer: It’s not easy bc his playing time path is also cut off a bit for the foreseeable future. I think you take in any data you can and combine it w/scouting reports and what we’re seeing this year

Boiling Coka-A-Cola: Which prospect to hold? Brujan, Kelenic, Adell? Thanks

Paul Sporer: Only one?!?!? I looooove Brujan, but I think I gotta go Kelenic

Dave: Any thoughts on LaMonte Wade Jr.?

Paul Sporer: Looks like a hot streak and not too much more. He’s a platoon guy who probably won’t play consistently enough to merit fantasy consideration

Hiura Kari: Do you see Keston H. regaining 2019 form?

Paul Sporer: Probably not. It was heavily BABIP-driven and I think we all glossed over it in anointing him. I don’t think he’s THIIIIISSSS bad either, but not ’19 level

Kate: What do you make of Victor Robles at this point?  Seems like a change of scenery might help, but would the Nats move him even if they went rebuild?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think they’d be fully against moving him at this point if they start a teardown. He needs to improve at the dish and maybe there’s that one hitting coach who can get it out of him. I was a pretty big fan these last couple seasons, but I’ve def altered my outlook

Struggling Slugging: Brandon Lowe just got cut in my OBP dynasty league. Drop Croneworth for him, or forget Lowe given his struggles and the high-end prospects behind him?

Paul Sporer: I prefer Croney

Vader: I really like the numbers supporting Alex Cobb, but I don’t want anything to do with him on a bad Angels team in a six man rotation. Will he be a hot commodity come the trade deadline?

Paul Sporer: Not a hot one, no

mathesond: I’m in a 5×5 roto OBP league, and need to bench one of Olson/Muncy/Lindor/Donaldson/Semien/Carlos Santana. Who would you sit most often?

Paul Sporer: Probably Santana, but that’s tough given how well he’s going

Nick Lodolo: Do I see time in the bigs this season?

Paul Sporer: I can see it, yeah

Kate: What do you make of this talk about Adames’ home / road splits from his time in Tampa?  I would typically wave something like that away as randomness, but we’re talking about a pretty large sample.  He also mentioned he had trouble seeing the ball there.  Think he could be in for an uptick in production simply by moving parks?

Paul Sporer: I plan on writing him up to discuss it. I fully buy it.

Cory: Straight up, is Yelich done?  If I could grab Winker for him, would you do it?

Paul Sporer: No, I don’t think so… the other Q is a maybe, but we discussed EXACTLYYY those 2 in the next episode of In This League w/Welsh and Bogman that should be out today or tomorrow . We were split on doing that deal between the 3 of us

Maris: Picked up Jazz Chisolm and Shane McClanahan cheap in points league. Which is best dynasty keeper? Thanks

Paul Sporer: The hitter. Always the hitter when a hitter & pitcher are relatively close

Michael: Traded Betts ($39 2022 protect cost) for Chris Taylor ($14) and Joe Musgrove ($9) in a $240, NL-Only league. How’d I do? I needed pitching ratio help badly, am not sure if Betts has any keeper value at that cost, and love Musgrove at that price for next season. Chris Taylor looking good too!

Paul Sporer: I quite like that. Deep leagues like NL Only are definitely OK to cover 2 spots for one superstar

Keith: Will the Rays call up Brujan this season and if so when would you guess?

Paul Sporer: For sure, I think soon. Perhaps next week

Daniel: Is the fact that the Rays are playing so well going to keep them from promoting Franco and/or Brujan? Or will they find the space? If so, what IS the space?

Paul Sporer: There’s always space in TB, even when it doesn’t look like it lol

Fan of Char: what’s India’s ceiling this year for HR/SB? 15/10? Discount Tim Amderson?

Paul Sporer: I think ceiling is more 20/13-15 and I’d expect more like 15/10. Not quite a good enough AVG to be discount TA imo

Bert Campaneris: Yaz available on waiver wire as he gears up to make a return from IL. In a 12-tm head to head, would you prefer him over Adolis, Pham, Conforto? I believe Yaz could make a comeback. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Over Pham, yes

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, like I said, it’s a speedrun of 30 mins today. Sorry I couldn’t do more, but I was just mega-booked w/stuff. We’ll get back to our normal time next week. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). Have a good one, y’all!