Jeff Zimmerman: Hi everyone.

Jeff Zimmerman: Just a heads up, I might have to immediately leave during the chat for a family situation. We should be fine, but it could be a possibility.

TJ: How many SP, CL, and high skill RP would you take in a 50 player D&H?

Jeff Zimmerman: I wrote up my strategy here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/league-retrospectives-draft-hold-breakdo…

Michael Waldo: Mountcastle a viable mlb regular?  Jared Walsh?  Thanks much.

Jeff Zimmerman: Yes for both, but I’m worried some about Walsh getting full time at bats

Kyle Escobar: Dom Smith or Matt Olson in a dynasty league?  Thanks much.

Jeff Zimmerman: Olson right now. I’m really worried about Smith’s playing time over the next few years.

Rob: Jeff, what is your outlook for Jonathan Villar?  Assuming he signs with a team, do you envision him as a utility bench player or a starter that could reward those that draft him?

Jeff Zimmerman: He’s undraftable for me until he signs. No one can guess his role, so until it is known, assume the worst.

Ando: Who are some of the later “closers” that are being drafted that you have some faith in drafting?

Jeff Zimmerman: Martin with the Braves.

Kyle Esco: Pablo Lopez’s gains legitimate?  Still room for further growth?  Thanks.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think so. I’m high on him but so is everyone else. It’ll be interesting to see how high is ADP gets.

Sam: Is Dylan Carlson a good buy?

Jeff Zimmerman: No idea. Owners can hope on the Sept rebound and his prospect pedigree.

Kate: How much of a hindrance is COVID to guys who struggled in 2020 in terms of their ability to work with coaches to improve?  Thinking about a guy like Cease who probably needs to make some mechanical / release point changes to fix his spin axis.

Jeff Zimmerman: I’m guessing it’s going to be case by case with each pitcher. Spring Training news is going to really important to follow

Paul Sporer: Gooooood afternoon, y’all!

Hooha: Am I crazy for thinking Trent Grisham should be a top 35 player in OBP leagues for 2021?

Paul Sporer: I can’t get behind that, especially as top 35 overall, though even top 35 hitter is tough for someone who we can’t quiiiite trust vL just yet. I like Grisham as a power-speed combo, but not as much as you

Pete A: Paul I can seem to find the Ariel Cohen Beat the Shift podcast on iTunes. Where can I find it?

Paul Sporer: It might not be on iTunes yet, you can ask Ariel directly on their Twitter acct for the show https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/beat-the-shift-podcast-teaser/

stonecold: I feel like you’ve said you have DeGrom as your 1.01, is that still true for you?

Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome everyone

Jeff Zimmerman: It’ll be a few more weeks of fantasy football and then everyone can focus on baseball drafts.

Ji Man Soy: Most intriguiging OF outside of the top 300 redraft

Jeff Zimmerman: Let me look

Jeff Zimmerman: Mitch Haniger if healthy

Jeff Zimmerman: Adam Eaton depending on where he signs

Big Joey: Max Fried a top 15 SP in 2021?

Jeff Zimmerman: He’s not for me. The strikeout drop is alarming. If he repeats 2020, he’s a bad version of Kyle Hendricks.

Jeff Zimmerman: Expect for the 2.25 ERA. I expect it to jump up at least a run, possibly two.

Big Joey: Would you be shocked if Gleyber Torres puts up a .280  40  100/100 season in 2021?

Jeff Zimmerman: For sure. I’m not a fan at his price and I think the 2019 HR’s will be a huge outlier.

Jeff Zimmerman: The AVG is would be a career high but reach able. The Runs and RBIs are expected if he stays on the field.

Paul Sporer: Welcome everybody! A bit of an abbreviated chat on this holiday week, let’s talk some baseball!

Daniel: Paul, JD Davis to Colorado for Jon Gray. Davis becomes the Rockies 1b. Who says no?

Paul Sporer: Probably the Rockies and honestly, rightfully so. Gray hasn’t been a stud by any stretch, but they need to keep any developed pitching they can. Ryan McMahon SHOULD be able to replicate J.D. Davis or come damn close, but getting pitching has been this franchise’s issue forever.

Daniel: Thoughts on the Mets hiring Chris Young as GM. Seems like an unnecessary risk given his complete lack of experience.

Paul Sporer: Did they hire him? I thought it was only an interview. He is remarkably smart and obviously wouldn’t be working by himself. I don’t think it’s that big of a risk, I like the move

Paul Sporer: (espec. since it’s only an interview, but I’m not against them hiring him)

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! It’s offseason time, let’s talk some baseball!

Curtis: What “breakout” in 2020 do you think is legit?  Conversely, which players stellar 2020 is least likely to repeat in 2021 and beyond?

Paul Sporer: Here’s 4 breakouts I checked out recently: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/assessing-4-unexpected-hitting-breakouts… — I’m a little dubious on Teoscar Hernandez, which pains me as I like him. But I’m not sure there were any major changes sustaining the breakout and with four more months, he’d have meandered back toward his level or maybe finished a bit higher, but not at the clip we saw

Michael: I have a trade offer of Austin Meadows for Gerritt Cole even up.  You can keep Meadows two fantasy seasons; Cole one.  Cole is marginally more expensive (bidding league).  Thoughts on Meadows?

Paul Sporer: I’m OK giving Meadows a bit of a pass for ’19 as he wound with just a month after dealing with COVID, but I don’t think I want to do this deal. I’ll take my 1 ace season of Cole

Chuck: Hi, Paul. Do you call your car the Paul Bearer? Because you could.

Jeff Zimmerman: Hello

Jeff Zimmerman: It’s finally nice to get a bit of free agent move with Ray and Smyly signing deals

S: Do you know how projection systems are handling the shortened season? I imagine they have to be using some cross validation techniques but can’t seem to find anything speaking specifically to this point.

Jeff Zimmerman: Most weigh each season by PA and a of total. For example, it might be 50% previous, 30% two years back and 20% from three years.

Jeff Zimmerman: For a normal three seasons, it might by 40 HR, 20 HR, 20 HR with 600 PA’s for a projection of 30 HR.

Jeff Zimmerman: Now assume 13 HR (200 PA) and the 20 for the other two season (600 PA). The projection is weighted to the 20’s and would be not be all the way to 30 this time.

wes: What to do with Stanton in a keep-5 no penalties 12-teamer? Last four years of keeping him: one MVP and three ostensible zeroes. Still a Top-60 keeper?

Jeff Zimmerman: It really comes down to the other keeper options. I think he’s a borderline top-60 player so others could have moved up.

First Runner Up: Hello, I’m the guy who traded Gallen and Kyle Lewis for Clevinger in dynasty last February. Clearly I stink at ‘consolidation’ trades. Any indicators I should look toward to avoid these mistakes again?

Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think it was a bad process trade. You were getting the best player and it there was no guarantee that Lewis would stick in the majors. I wouldn’t move off the strategy.

Jesse: Who do you think could be a lights out fantasy relevant middle reliever in 2021? Kinda like Williams and Karinchiak were this year

Jeff Zimmerman: I wrote about how to target them here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/how-to-target-middle-relievers/