Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – September 8th, 2021

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Welcome to the chat!!

Paul Sporer: Sorry CPU restarted outta nowhere

Salty: What do you think of Luis Garcia on the Cards?  Velocity seems good and he’s been on some kind of run.  Does he get the most saves in St. Louis ROS?

Paul Sporer: He’s been great, but it’s not something that has a lot of fantasy relevance given his age & role

Cedric Mullins: Am I drafted as a top 2 rounder next year?

Paul Sporer: Very close, probably depends on league size. Think he ranges somewhere in the 25-40 area

Johnny5Alive: How many Luis Garcia are active in mlb right now?

Paul Sporer: 3! The two youngsters on HOU and WAS and then veteran RP on STL I just mentioned

KCBbq: Do you like any of the following AL starters in a 12 team only H2H 5×5 keeper league using W+QS ($260 budget) Patino $3, Eli Morgan $1, Sandoval $2….and a closer Joe Barlow $1?

Paul Sporer: I like all 3 SPs at their prices (depending on Sandoval’s injury, though I know he’s out for the rest of this year). Patiño at 3 is great and Morgan is intriguing for a buck in AL Only. Pass on Barlow, not even sure he’ll close next year

Guest: How do you come back from a 2/41 day from your hitters in  5×5 H2H playoffs? Stream for power bats and give up on AVG entirely? Or just keep riding with what got ya there?

Paul Sporer: That absolutely stings, but I’d probably stick with my guys instead of trying to “fix” the hole they dug

Johnny5Alive: Speaking of the was second baseman Garcia, he’s still so young, and actually had more pop this year in the minors than in the past. What do you see from him fantasy wise moving beyond this season?

Paul Sporer: Oh I really like him for the future. I think he’s a great late round scoop for ’22 as I don’t see his price rising too high at all. There’s a ton of upside from him and he’ll be just 22 years old next year

McDude: Better stream this weekend: Blackburn v Texas, Kluber v NYM or Patrick Corbin v Pittsburgh?

Paul Sporer: Oof, there is a lot of risk w/all 3, but I’d probably go Blackburn or Corbin. I’m pretty out on Kluber rest of season

Jon: Do you know what’s wrong with Cody Bellinger, and if so, can you tell him? He still ranks highly on the dynasty league lists I’ve seen, but I’m having a hard time buying into him for the future.

Paul Sporer: It has to be the shoulder still ailing him. There’s just no way I’d buy that he’s anywhere near 100%. Capable of still playing, but not 100%

Greg: I’m convinced that Snell started to pitch well because you said you’d keep him out of your top 50 2022 starting pitcher ranks. I think we may have forgotten that the guy won a CY YOUNG. Talk about disrespect!!!

Paul Sporer: Love Blake as y’all know, but it was bleak and I had to drop him. Couldn’t just keep him highly rated bc we’re internet homies. He has COMPLETELY turned it around, though, and he’s pitching some of the best ball we’ve seen outta him!

Johnny5Alive: Luzardo has been better lately -still not great, but better. He was a highly regarded prospect, although the A’s don’t usually give up on guys like that. His control had declined. He’s still young. Can he fix it in Florida? And/or can he get his k rate high enough where the higher walk rate isn’t as problematic?

Paul Sporer: Can absolutely get fixed, but it’s not a foregone conclusion and I worry him name value will keep his price higher than it should be for next year

Gleyber Torres: Am I worth hanging on to as a speculative keeper in a 12 tm 6×6 OBP league for $15?

Paul Sporer: It’s not a TERRIBLE price, but in a 12-teamer, you probably have several better options

z: who are you going to roster the most next year: Alcantara, Framber, Manoah, Means, Trevor Rogers, and Ynoa

Paul Sporer: I kinda split them up as first 3, second 3 as the first 3 will have a good bit higher cost than the second 3 so I’ll pick one from each group: Manoah and Means

billyjojimbob: Logan Webb….keeper in a 14 tm at $11. Yes right?

Paul Sporer: Slam dunk! His rise has been fun to watch!!

KCBbq: 12 team AL only H2H 5×5 keeper league ($260 budget). Would you extend Canha for 1 yr @ $11 and Bichette for 2 yrs @ $19 or 3yrs at $24? draft day inflation runs 30%+ for first third of draft.

Paul Sporer: I’d do both if possible with Bichette getting the 3 years as $24 in AL is just bananas!!!

z: thanks Paul! think we get anything meaningful from Baz this season? think young Lowe sticks around to be rosterable?

Paul Sporer: No, I think he’ll be an RP if he comes up. Just not sure there’s room at the inn for Lowe once Arozarena is back from paternity

G: Need some streaming guidance rest of week in my semis. Deep 16 tm H2H 6×6 with QS + K:BB. I have 3 adds left. Senzatela, Wacha, Otto, Mikolas, Freeland, Dobnak, Archer, Morgan, Jax, Crowe are some avail options.

Paul Sporer: I’d have to know the matchups, tbh, but I like Otto, Mikolas, Morgan off the top. I’ll be updating the SP chart regularly rest of season: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/starting-pitcher-chart-september-8th…

Alex: With the latest UCL update, would u recommend selling Degrom in keeper or holding on for next year? Thanks for these!

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure you’ll get full price so I’d be inclined to hold

Salty: Fun Fact from Gary Cohen – Soto has driven the runner in from third with less than two outs at a rate of greater than 90% this season.  Seems simple enough, but many of today’s hitters have been far less successful.  Just another reason why he’s one of the best in the game.

Paul Sporer: There’s definitely skill in that. We rightfully scoff at using RBIs as a great talent measure on its face bc context matters so much, but there are legit RBI guys who get it done in those situations more often than others and it is a skill. Cespedes is one who leaps to mind. Always got the guy in from 3rd whether w/the flyball or a groundball to the right side (or of course a hit).

Kate: Jose Miranda going to get the call at some point in September?  Seems silly for the Twins to not get a look at him.

Paul Sporer: HOW IS HE NOT UP YET?!?!? Obv not yelling at you, but it’s just insane to me

Greg: Ohtani Splits: 179 wRC+ in the first half, 111 wRC+ in the second half.  Where are you drafting him as a hitter next year?

Paul Sporer: late 1st/early 2nd

Kate: Kirk really getting it going the last several days.  Where do you see him ranking amongst the catchers going into next year?  Is he going to get enough PT to be a top 5 guy (maybe with DH ABs thrown in)?

Paul Sporer: Yes I think he could find his way into the top 5. I’d rank him top 10 at this point and draft him knowing there’s top 5 upside. Actually drafted him in my Main Event this year, but his early injury kinda forced me to cut him

Chantanella: 12-tm, Roto, Dynasty, 6×6 (OPS + QS)

I’m battling out in the top 3 and am looking to better some ratios plus add some S/Hs. My only possible cut is Eduardo Rodriguez but I haven’t been able to pull the trigger because of his FIP/XFIP/XERA.

Is it time to move on despite the underlying numbers?

Current staff is Nola, Woodruff, Darvish, Rodon, Webb, Berrios, Cease, and E Rob with P. Sandoval on IR.

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m not a huge E-Rod guy. I understand he’s got the quality underlying ERA indicators but I think they ignore his H and HR issues which I don’t think are just bad luck. He’s probably better than a 5.15 ERA, but I don’t think he’s a true talent 3.55 guy (that’s his FIP)

Greg: Ohtani Splits: 3.49 ERA in the first half, 2.20 ERA in the second half.  Where are you drafting him as a pitcher next year?

Paul Sporer: I’m not really, I’m drafting him as a hitter. But if it’s a league where he’s split, I’ll take the pitcher in the 3rd-4th rd area

Gus: Will Carlos Estevez get enough saves in the next two weeks to be helpful in the playoffs?

Paul Sporer: Any saves are helpful tbh, so ya he’ll get some

Tony: Without getting to league specific, would you rather keep Harrison Bader or Josh Lowe, and rank Houck, patino, Mclanahan for 2022. Thank you

Paul Sporer: Bader; McClanahan-Houck-Patiño

RAGBRAI: Marlins look interesting next year. What offensively do they need to do this offseason? IF seems fairly set, what OFers start next year?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think OF should be their main target. I doubt they got heavy in FA, so they could definitely move an SP for OF in a strong deal similar to Gallen-for-Jazz. They are building something, here’s hoping they don’t botch it

Kate: How big of a problem are Josiah Gray’s fly ball / HR rates going forward?

Paul Sporer: I’m hoping it’s a fixable blip bc he never had these kinds of HR issues in the minors. In fact, quite the opposite – he had a 0.3 HR/9 in the minors. Now, he did have the flyball lean so maybe it was just a matter of time for HRs, but I think with some fine-tuning, he can curb the HRs

Nick: Posey or Grandal ROS?

Paul Sporer: Truly a coinflip, but I’ll go Grandal

Salty: Kershaw pitched three innings in his rehab start.  If the rumors of him possibly pitching vs SD this weekend come true, do you think he can get 5 or 6 innings, or is that way too ambitious?

Paul Sporer: Given the Dodgers and their caution, I’d expect low-60s pitches which could get 5, but I wouldn’t bet on it

Busted: I’ve got 140 innings left ROS.  Will Morton, Snell, L. Castillo plus 5 RP slots (daily lineups) get me there or do I need to throw in a couple choice starts from lower-tier SPs?

Paul Sporer: I’d think you need some more IP to get there

Kate: Do you think Clev gets the kid gloves next year coming off TJ?  Innings limit / low pitch counts to start?

Paul Sporer: Yes, managed to start but then if things progress well, he’ll be unchained by the summer

Kate: You think the Tigers see Baddoo as a part-time guy?  Or are they just limiting him a bit to give him some rest since he’s been away from baseball so much the last several years?

Paul Sporer: I think they don’t want to write him off as a strong side platoon so quickly, but if he doesn’t start progressing next year, the starts v LHP will definitely dry up

PleaForSympathy: My starting rotation this year consisted of Trevor Bauer, Clayton Kershaw, Jacob deGrom, and Shane Bieber.  Hold me?

Paul Sporer: Oh wow, you were probably SOOOO excited

Tony: I had traded Logan Webb for Jared Walsh, did I mess up?

Paul Sporer: Walsh has unquestionably had a rough 2H, but I still think this trade is perfectly fair. Love both for ’22, too

Nick: You like Tyler Rogers or Blake Treinen better as a play for outlier saves?

Paul Sporer: Probably Treinen

Greg: Sleeper and the bust episode idea – you and Justin listen to excerpts from the prior year spring training podcasts and react to the good takes and bad takes.

Paul Sporer: Oh wow, that’s a really good offseason idea!!

Guest: Is schwindel for real and should I add him for my playoff run? Currently been using Aguilar (banged up and tailed off) and Wisdom (hot/cold). Thanks

Paul Sporer: I have no problems playing the hot hand rest of season, but I’m not going crazy on him for next year w/out deep-diving his stats

Scott: Is Josh Lowe a good pickup for this year and a good prospect to stash for next year?

Paul Sporer: He’s probably not getting a ton of play rest of season, but I like him as a long-term prospect

Vince: In 2nd rnd of playoffs, 12-TM Roto, daily pickups.  Should I drop E-Rod for Lauer or Ober.  He just put me in hole and can’t trust when he’ll  pitch good game.

Paul Sporer: I like Lauer a good bit!

Josh: are you starting carrasco vs NYY sunday?

Paul Sporer: Yeah in most leagues I am

Johnny5Alive: Peralta and Buehler have been my aces, both kind of got rocked last time out.  Minor set-backs or more an indication of tiring as the season progresses?

Paul Sporer: I have a little concern about Peralta bc they’re managing his innings and he just had an IL stint, but I’m still starting him. And Buehler is an auto-start

Xavier: Think Jacob Meyers is the real deal?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think there’s viability here, but he needs to improve the plate skills. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Astros addressed CF in the offseason so Meyers isn’t all they have, but I do believe he can swing it and with some speed, he can be a nice fantasy piece, even as a 3.5/4th OF type where he’s getting 400-such PA

Nolan: I need to drop one of Trevor Rogers, Alek Manoah, or Luis Garcia.  Whom would you drop?

Paul Sporer: Are you sure you have to?!!?!? I guess it’d be Rogers

TBD: Andrew Vaughn seems like the real deal, and I’m thinking of keeping him for next year, but where will he play (not enough at bats).

Paul Sporer: Oh he’ll be a full-timer without a doubt. OF/DH/1B. I love Vaughn and can’t wait to draft him next year

Bottom Shelf Stuff: Rank Mahle, Ynoa, Stroman, Elieser RoS if I’m going for the following ratios only: K/9, HR/9, ERA, WHIP

Paul Sporer: I think the order you have ’em is how I like ’em

Kate: Is Snell fixed ala Robbie Ray?  Is what these two have done sustainable?

Paul Sporer: I haven’t dove in on Snell’s turnaround just yet, but I really see so much excellence just in his approach by watching his starts. I was skeptical on Ray’s turnaround originally bc he was still allowing so many HRs, but then he tamped those down and it was just like wow, he’s a god. I’m in on both now and next year

Kate: Do you think Ashby ends up with a spot in the Brewers rotation to start next year?  He’s looked pretty interesting so far and feels like a guy who could blow up if given the opportunity.  Kinda similar to Webb with good swing and miss stuff plus tons of grounders.

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m very keen on Ashby for ’22. I’ll be writing him up this offseason for sure. He’ll be suuuuuper cheap (probably undrafted in 10s and 12s for the most part unless he locks in a spot during spring) but there is real upside to Aaron Ashby!

DT: In an OBP league, how would you rank Kirilloff, Brujan, India and Duran as keepers?

Paul Sporer: That’s tough b/w the top 3 but I’ll go India/Burjan/Kirilloff and then Duran in 4th right now.

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I have to get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!