Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – September 15th, 2021

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Thanks for coming out!!

Goobles: How long do you think Dalbec is going to keep this up? Right now he’s my only 3B and I’m on a strict transaction limit in the playoffs, feeling iffy on him ROS

Paul Sporer: He’s definitely super streaky but hopefully he can get you to the finish line bc he can go cold quickly

Turgid: 12 team 6×6 dynasty, I’m about to win the league, but I have too many good players. Which 2 out of Brandon Lowe, Sale, Kershaw, Riley Greene, Ohtani (Pitcher only), and Ynoa would you NOT protect?

Paul Sporer: I think you have to let Greene go since he hasn’t debuted yet. I know you said dynasty, but don’t most dynasties keep everyone? In a case like this with a shortened keeper list, you have to keep the proven dudes so the 2nd cut is probably Ynoa

BringBackDeSpanielHair: My Yankees make me sad

Paul Sporer: They’re still fully in the mix at least

BringBackDeSpanielHair: Almost as sad as getting knocked out of my home league playoffs after dominating the second half

Paul Sporer: That is always so tough

HarryLime: Is there any website that would possibly project potential Starting Pitchers til seasons end?    Thx

Paul Sporer: No one is gonna go that far bc it loses a ton of reliability once you go a week out but we’ve got one: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/probables-grid

Derek: How do you feel about E-Rod and Kikuchi for next year? I’m in a dynasty league and I’m debating keeping or cutting.

Paul Sporer: I’m not particularly keen on either as keepers. They’re decent, but neither has any major upside, IMO

Turgid: Thanks. This dynasty has a competitive balance draft, so I can protect 14, then keep everyone left after the draft

Turgid: You don’t think Riley is going to turn into something special?

Paul Sporer: He can, but in comparison to those others who’ve done something in the majors, I don’t think he’s worth keeping

Seth: In NL-only and Tapia and Grisham are really scuffling. Every AB matters, but I don’t want to be too reactionary. Drop either for Lane Thomas, Jesus Sanchez, Bryan De La Cruz? Where do you think Tapia and Grisham will be drafted in NL-only next season — I have both for cheap and was strongly considering keeping one if not both, but boy I dunno…

Paul Sporer: I’m kinda surprised all 3 of those guys are on the wire in an NL-Only, tbh. I’d hold Grish, but I could see dropping Tapia for Thomas. I don’t have an NL Only so it’d be tough to guesstimate off the top where there’ll go in the draft next year. Grisham is still a top 4ish rounder I’d assume, but hard to say on Tapia

Robb: I know this is fangraphs, and this may be the wrong chat for this question, but give me your gut feel: do the Giants win the WS?

Paul Sporer: My gut is no. I have Astros/Dodgers (boring, I know, but I’ve had it since day 1 and I’m not changing) with the Astros winning

jazzrunner12: Kopech has been hit very hard in a couple outings.  Could he be tipping his pitches?

Paul Sporer: Hmm, I don’t know about that. He was so dominant in between the blowups that I don’t think it’s something that or at least I wouldn’t speculate on it blindly. Has there been chatter of such a thing in the media?

Jeff: Do you think Adam Wainwright will get drafted as a top-40 starting pitcher next year? ESPN has him as the 20th PLAYER on the player rater this year. Will Waino ever get the respect he deserves?

Paul Sporer: No he won’t, no chance. But it’s not about getting respect. He was respected for the ace he was in his prime. He’s had an amazing season without a doubt, but betting on a 40-yr old to repeat is just asking for disappointment. No one wants to be holding the hot potato when he does fall off. He’ll be very cheap and I think that makes sense

JoeMac: Paul – Thanks a million for your informative chats this season and your efforts on our behalf!

Paul Sporer: No problem! Thank you all so much for coming out every week!!

Paul Sporer: There will be some Wednesdays missed during the offseason (likely in Nov/Dec), but still plenty of regular chats

ray: Why are the Astros giving playing time to McCormick and Siri ahead of Myers?

Paul Sporer: Meyers hasn’t really done anything to fully take the role so they are just sharing the role among the 3. He has a 35% K and 5% BB

Kallus: Please rank for next year:  Gonsolin, Gilbert, Luis Garcia (Hou), and Lynch (KC).

Paul Sporer: Garcia/Gilbert/Gonsolin/Lynch for me

The Kid: 1st round of the playoffs & anchored by 2 QS & a low ERA. Opponent has 5 mid-range SPs going today. From my end, would you start any of these or try to retain a sparkling image:

• Mills @ PHI
• Cal Quan @ MIN
• Ynoa vs COL
• Megill vs STL

Paul Sporer: I’d def start Ynoa and Quantrill. Not averse to starting Megill, either – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-chart-september-15th-20…

Rick: What happened to Dominic Smith this year? Do you expect him to bounce back next year and be either starting OF or DH(assuming NL has it) ?

Paul Sporer: I liked Smith a good bit this year so it’s been a bummer to see. His HR/FB rate dropping by more than 50% ate up the power and a 70-pt BABIP dip hurt a good bit, too. I’m reluctant to fully wave it way w/variance, but I’m just not seeing a lot of other aspects that can explain the fall off

Enlightening Round: H2H, last start for the week, Hendricks or R Hill, both v Philly….Hendricks right?

Paul Sporer: Wait no, definitely Hill by a lot. Hendricks has been brutal

Grim: What’s the deal with Matt Olson? Traded A LOT for him late July and he’s been so disappointing

Paul Sporer: In fairness, you bought super high. He’s been good just not ELITE since August 1st: .259/.365/.460 w/7 HR & 32 RBI (30 HR/136 RBI full season pace)

Babe: Can I drop Yelich in a 12-team redraft? He’s been the worst player on my roster

Paul Sporer: Yes, definitely fine

Bobby: Keep 4 four next year: Bellinger, Lindor, Soto, Mullins, Olson, Semien. Thanks for your input.

Paul Sporer: Soto, Semien, Olson, and Mullins.

Bobby: Drop Darvish and Hendricks in favor of good middle relievers for ratios and sneaky wins? Or keep these two downward spiral SP for next week’s finals?

Paul Sporer: Definitely dropping Hendricks and I’m not averse to dropping Darvish if you want the roster spot instead of just reserving him

Dr. Teeth: Thoughts on Lamet in current role and next season? How patient should keeper owners be?

Paul Sporer: He’s a one-pitch guy with major injury issues so it makes sense. I still think he will get a shot to start again next year if healthy, but I’m not terribly surprised by his lot in life right now. We’ve seen his peak (last year) so I wouldn’t be bending over backwards to keep him

Chico Esquela: 12-team 5×5 we can keep up to five players in place of picking in the first 5 rounds. I have Acuna, Burnes, Merrifield, Semien, C. Seager, Rendon. Would you keep Seager or Rendon, or would you let them go and instead pick in the fifth round? Thanks.

Paul Sporer: I’d probably keep Seager as a 5th

Gest: Have you liked what you’ve seen from Elieser Hernandez since his return?

Paul Sporer: My main concern for him hasn’t been improved: he’s a home run machine. He’s at 2.2 in the 5 starts since returning, either

Guest: Does Javier take over for Odorizzi?

Paul Sporer: If they want to keep the 6-man. I was dead wrong about Javier taking over for Garcia, they just left Garcia in all year much to my surprise

Rick: Marsh has been getting lots of playing time and showing some positives along with contact negatives. Do you think he is s starting OF next year and beyond?

Paul Sporer: In fantasy or for the Angels? I think he starts for LAA and likely has viability in 5 OF leagues w/12+ teams and if he develops, he could definitely be an all-formats guy

Grim: Assuming he doesn’t go absolutely crazy in the playoffs/spring training, where do you think Wander gets drafted in redraft leagues next year?

Paul Sporer: I’d imagine Top 50. Plenty of people will be pushing him up

Steve: Jahmai Jones seemed like a great pickup based on his first half in AAA, but the Orioles didn’t call him up, he slumped in the minors and although he is hitting poorly since getting called up, he is getting passed over for playing time.  This seems like the exact opposite of the approach that the Orioles should be taking in trying to find value in potential regulars for their future.

Paul Sporer: Ya you’d think they want to give a 23-year old all the time they could to see what’s up with him

Bhl: Deep points league playoffs. Using up my waiver moves. Should I risk a Reynaldo Lopez start tomorrow? Angels mostly stink..

Paul Sporer: I mean, he can see now – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/mining-the-news-8-19-21/ – so I don’t hate the gamble if it fits your needs

JuanGOATo: Which of the TA4 players are you most excited about (mlb the show)

Paul Sporer: He’s my personal ranking of them: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lE6pYaAW9M2FPMMpVW9uXvXeq4tyV5…

SirFartsALot: Am I nuts or is Erick Fedde worth picking up?

Paul Sporer: For next week’s 2-start at MIA and at CIN… in deeper leagues, it can definitely be worth it but just make sure you can handle the potential downside.

Kate: Fair to say Miranda not happening in Minnesota this year?  Does this say anything about his chances of breaking camp or ending up with a starting role at some point next year?

Paul Sporer: Ya I don’t understand how he’s been passed over. I’m not sure it impacts anything next year, but it is surprising he was passed over

SirFartsALot: Stick with Ian Kennedy or pick up Matt Barnes?

Paul Sporer: Go for Barnes slated to return this weekend

SirFartsALot: When Winker comes off IL, should I drop Cronenworth, Grisham and/or Matt Chapman?

Paul Sporer: Depends on Croney’s finger injury, but if he’s healthy I’d likely cut Grisham

Nick: Need to keep 3 of these SPs in a 12 team points league. Have Tucker and Tatis as my other 2 keepers. Also if I’m looking to trade one who’s perceived value is higher than their actual in your opinion.
Castillo-12th
Burnes-3rd
Giolito-21st
Rogers(Fla)-25th
Flaherty-17th
McKenzie-25th
Ray-23rd

Paul Sporer: Even if we don’t fully believe in Ray’s surge, he can’t hurt you at a 23rd rounder. Giolito is a lock, too. From there it gets a bit tougher w/Rogers, Flaherty, and McKenzie. I’d probably eliminate Flaherty based off injury and then it comes down to Rogers & McKenzie. I lean Rogers in that battle

Guest: I’m in first, on bye, and scooping up Michael Wacha. Will he make me look like the genius that I am?

Paul Sporer: He faces TOR his next two starts (though one is today which won’t impact you), but I’d be surprised if he makes you feel great about that

Mighty: Keep for next season Wheeler at $19 or Alcantara $12

Paul Sporer: They’re too close not to take the discount

Salty: Looking for help across all categories, with more weight on Wins, who do you like btw Hearn (facing CHW/Cease) and Mikolas (facing SD/possible bullpen game)?  Hearn has been the better of late, but faces a tough lineup and Mikolas may have the better chance at a W.

Paul Sporer: Mikolas has the better supporting cast, but I’d go for the better SP right now and that’s Hearn. Ws are so tough to predict and I think I’d just rather take the guy more likely to deliver quality innings

Kate: What do you make of Matt Manning?  I’m not really concerned about the surface stats, but the underlying numbers (K, contact, whiff percentages, etc.) look really bad.  Is there an injury here somewhere?  Has the stuff just backed up from added workload?

Paul Sporer: He’s a tough read right now. I can’t say I’m entirely unconcerned, though I still don’t plan to just bury him. I certainly hope they aren’t letting him grind through an injury, but the MLB skills have been hideous. I’l be interested to read the offseason beat on him. He will be a worthy $1 gamble next year

Rick: Got excited for a hot sec that Taveras would be a cheap source of SB. since then, he’s stolen all of 0. one would think at the top of the line up tex would be encouraging him to run?

Paul Sporer: SBs remain virtually impossible to predict

B: Remember back when you’d post a hip hop link at the start of the chat? I miss that!!

Paul Sporer: Ever since Twitch started cracking down on copyrighted music, I’m out of the loop on new stuff. My stream is where I used to get all my music listening in. During the day, I have on MLB games when we have day games otherwise it’s Twitch or YouTube. ACL (music festival here in Austin) is coming v soon so maybe I’ll get back to listening to more music so I can share atop the chat

B: This is for HarryLime – good resource to plan ahead with SP’s https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/probable-pitchers.php?roster=&taken=&d…

SirFartsALot: Drop Houck for either Dick Mountain or Erick Fedde?

Paul Sporer: I could do it for Hill

Rich: Other than last night’s mini-blowup, Drew Steckenrider has been really good lately, but his ERA estimators are all over the map:  2.11 actual ERA, 3.12 xERA, 3.18 FIP, 4.25 xFIP.  Why such a big gap between his xFIP and the other ERA estimators?  And what kind of numbers should we expect from him ROS?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s bc he has a 6% HR/FB rate that xFIP neutralizes to more of a league average HR rate. That said, I think he’s a solid middle reliever w/decent ratios, but not enough Ks to really be useful in anything but AL Only leagues

Kate: Do the Reds finally trade Nick Senzel this offseason?  They’ve screwed with him so much, I’d love to see him get a fresh start somewhere.

Paul Sporer: Haven’t his injury issues been a bigger issue than anything Cincy is doing? Hard to say if they’ll trade him, but I do look forward to their offseason

Dr. Teeth: Sit Cobb v White Sox tomorrow, right?

Paul Sporer: Oh ya.. fresh off the IL? No shot

Kate: Do you think Alejandro Kirk gets enough PT next year to play his way into the top tier of catchers?  Does his defense limit his PT?  Or maybe he gets enough DH ABs to make up to it?

Paul Sporer: The bat will drive his PT even if the catching defense doesn’t get any better

Plinko Dan: Cole Irvin @LAA as good of a stream as I think it’ll be?

Paul Sporer: Ya, I know he had a little lull there, but I’d scoop him off the wire

billyjojimbob: who can save my playoff bacon offensively that may be sittin on the waiver wire in a 12 teamer?

Paul Sporer: I can’t really guess who’s on your wire. It’d be better to give some names and ask for insight on ’em

Rich: Steckenrider seems to be closing.  He has four of the last six saves for the Mariners.  Does that change the calculus?

Paul Sporer: Oh snap, I didn’t realize he had overtaken the role. Yeah, obviously that makes him much more fantasy relevant. I’d hadn’t really been on top of the SEA pen after I cut Castillo a little while ago. I thought the 3 were essentially splitting it. At any rate, yes Steck as closer is worth having. His xFIP doesn’t worry me much bc I don’t see his HR rate severely regressing

UKR: Bradley Zimmer has some really impressive max EV numbers this year, but does his ghastly K rate hold him back even in 15 teamers going forward?

Paul Sporer: It certainly puts a burden on his BABIP to maintain anything close to a useful AVG (his .236 isn’t dreadful this yr given where AVGs are). Hopefully he can stay healthy and really find a rhythm

Glenn Spankman: @billyjojimbob –  try Jesus Sanchez. Looks like a beast – a guy who can hit 460 ft bombs to center and 400 ft oppo bombs without being an excessive whiffer (85% Zone contact % and 13% SwStr)

Paul Sporer: Big Sanchez fan!

Dave: Derek Hill has seemed surprisingly… competent with the bat in Detroit this year. Not fantasy relevant, but fun!

Paul Sporer: Strong defense, too! He’ll be 26 next year so there is still some potential upside. I’m hoping he can develop into a solid every day with double-double upside

Nick: Thanks for answering Paul!!

Paul Sporer: Happy to help!

Paul Sporer: I have to get going, but I’ll be back next week! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!