Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – August 26th, 2021

A day late, but still great!

1:05

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!! Sorry for being a day late, but we’re here!!

1:05

Paul Sporer: I’m also posting my SP rankings here very soon so you can view those & ask questions (live in about 5)

1:05

Guest: Concerned about Ohtani’s recent hitting performance? Lots of strikeouts

1:05

Paul Sporer: No

1:06

Guest: Is it time to give up on Jeff McNeil hopefully recapturing his 2019 output?

1:07

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure, he looks like a clear 2019 rabbit ball product. I think a healthy McNeil is still a .280+ hitter w/low double-digit pop, but I’d be surprised if we saw 23 ever again

1:09

Sideshow Bob: Thoughts on Edward Cabrera’s debut, holding him in a 10 team H2H points league

1:13

Paul Sporer: “thoughts on” questions are a bit too vague, so let’s aim for more pointed queries. That said, I only saw a bit of the highlights bc I was out at trivia last night, but he impressed. He was clearly looking to get outs however they came so I’m not worried about the low-K total in a debut and sure, he ran into some trouble in the 7th, but a rookie made the 7th inning in his debut!! All in all, hard not to be pleased w/the effort. I’ll watch the full game later today.

1:14

Upton Funk: Hey Paul!  What are your thoughts on Kelenic in 2022?  This year change anything for you?  Feels like a guy who could still easily just turn on a dime to his minors numbers (rather than a quad A to sell on, like Brinson) . . .

1:16

Paul Sporer: Totally agree re: turning on a dime and all of a sudden it clicks. I’m not going anywhere in terms of my interest and barring a big September, it’ll be cheaper to re-invest next year which makes it even easier to stay bought in.

1:18
1:18

Ace: Rank these three for the next 3 years: Skubal, Mackenzie, Cease

1:19

Paul Sporer: Just for clarification, I imagine you mean Triston McKenzie and not Mackenzie Gore. I’d go Skubal, Cease, McKenzie… I love what we’ve seen from McKenzie in this recent run, but still have some concerns tied to his injury history

1:19

Fred: Is Jorge Polanco going to be a top tier 2b entering next year?

1:22

Paul Sporer: He’ll be up there given the thinness of 2B and I like Polanco a lot, but I’m not paying full price for this season

1:22

TJ: Is the Daultin Varsho tear for real? Has he gotten back some of the shine he lost from last year?

1:23

Paul Sporer: Yes, I think it’s pretty legit. His previous MLB issues had a pretty awful BABIP tied to them (which isn’t to say that he didn’t play any role), but he’s a real bat and I think we’re seeing some legitimacy here

1:23

Duh: Looking ahead to 2022, Ynoa, Sandoval, Ty Megill and Elesier are all Top X SPs?

1:23

Paul Sporer: 100?

1:23

Upton Funk: Enjoying the ranks so far!  On Sale . . . do you see him staying around there for 2022, or are you thinking he’s back to Top 10 once he’s gotten a few more starts under his belt etc?

1:24

Paul Sporer: If he’s mostly himself ROS, I’ll have him top 10 for sure. Hell, I could have him top 10 in the next set in a couple wks. Just wanna see a bit more

1:24

purplemini: What are the chances of Robbie Ray’s changes and improved control sticking next year? What historical comps both good and bad would you give to a guy who was so wild for much of his career suddenly finding control?

1:25

Paul Sporer: Hard to say what the chances are, but obviously he will be viewed very differently coming into next year. I think Darvish is an interesting comp for someone who transformed their command & control this drastically

1:25

Greg: Re: Varsho – I heard from an insider within the D-backs org that no one really views him as a catcher long-term.

1:25

Paul Sporer: Yeah that’s been the line from day 1 so any season we can get those 20 games behind the dish is a boon since it’ll give us another year of eligibility behind the dish

1:25

Bounceback: What qualities in hitters and pitchers do you like when considering bounce back candidates? Is it more age-related or skill-related?

1:26

Paul Sporer: K & BB rates, battled ball profiles, pitch mix for arms and of course age definitely matters, too

1:26

Steve: Love your work. What are your thoughts on Brendan Rodgers and Ty France for 2022?

1:28

Paul Sporer: Liked both this year and will stay bought in on both next year! Rodgers will be 25 and will have a full-time role if he can stay healthy while France has had a nice little breakout despite battling a wrist throughout a good part of the year (might even still be dealing w/it). Could play like another Ty from years ago: Wigginton. Solid pop, good AVG, and multi-positional eligibility

1:28

Bruno: Is Matt Manning still a strong play for dynasty?

1:28

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m not completely ditching him based on an unimpressive debut

1:28

Chilly: Something about isan Diaz I really like for a breakout.  Pt isnt there which is a prob but he seems to near the front of the next in line, line in mia.   Have u looked at him enough to speak to this?

1:31

Paul Sporer: Yessss!!! Isan is my dude! I actually thought we could see something from Isan Díaz last year but then he opted for most of the 2-month season so nothing came of it. Didn’t really get a shot until recently this year, but I still see some upside here that he’s finally tapping into. Could be in that aforementioned Ty France mold and with the lack of depth at 2B, it plays. He probably won’t have as high an AVG as France, but he could mix in 7-10 SBs over 600 PA (despite being 1-for-5 as an MLBer)

1:32

Bologna Tugboat: I traded away Buehler for Burnes a few weeks back (keeper league), and while it may seem like a net neutral trade, Burnes absolutely dominates Buehler in terms of Statcast metrics. How much stock do you put into his Statcast profile and who do you value more going forward? Same age, both great in terms of run prevention, etc…

1:36

Paul Sporer: I honestly don’t put that much stock into them. I don’t think we’ve seen enough predictive value from them to go too hard w/them

1:36

John: Is Zach Eflin worth adding in 12 teamer?

1:36

Paul Sporer: Oh ya. Good skills, solid ratios. Wires aren’t offering a ton these days so I feel like Eflin would be a gem on many wires

1:38

Greg: I was a little surprised by your Nola ranking at 29 – it looks like he’s just been getting unlucky this year judging from underlying stats. Do you see anything else?

1:41

Paul Sporer: Honestly, he kinda just got placed in there and I haven’t done a deep-dive on him in a while. He was off the last ranking bc he was on the COVID IL, but yeah he should be 7-10 spots higher based on pitching better of late and Philly having the easiest schedule left in baseball. Good call.

1:41

Greg: Thoughts on Justin Mason ROS?

1:41

Paul Sporer: Could see a big push. He doesn’t cover football anymore so his head will be in baseball through the remainder of the season. Buy!

1:42

Ace: Is 2022 the year you guys all finally stop recommending we draft Nick Solak

1:44

Paul Sporer: I doubt it. He’ll be muuuuch cheaper and still has a 15/10 full season pace despite hitting pretty poorly. A .276 BABIP did him zero favors. He went down to AAA and finally found his BABIP good fortune, posting a .426 in 22 games. The theme of the day seems to be 2B next year and the lack of premium talent there so as long as he has a job in spring, I’ll be back in.

1:44

Jeff: Do you see the Adames breakout as real?

1:44

Paul Sporer: Big time. He said he truly couldn’t see in TB and it totally checks out w/his home-road split as a Ray. He’s a star!

1:44

Freddy Peralta: I know you said you don’t list IL guys, but assuming I come off the IL this weekend, where would you slot me in at ROS?

1:44

Paul Sporer: Still top 20, but on the lower end bc I still worry about IP mgmt.

1:45

jack: hey! what do you think about starting rodon today? the rest should do him a bunch of good, and he can take any lineup when he’s amped up and into it.

1:46

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m putting him right back in even w/a great TOR lineup on tap

1:46

ScottTINSTAAPP: Stories in being too early, set the min pick for Cedric Mullins in 2019 Main Event to enjoy his season in MiLB and this year took the “never again” stance instead of “you owe me” and have 0 shares!

1:47

Paul Sporer: Daaaamn!!! That’s so tough as he steals his 2nd base of the day and 24th of the year. I try to avoid the “never again” game unless it’s multi-year failure and even then it has to be a higher end guy. Someone like Ced I’d have been inclined to stay bought in on since it was still v cheap to re-invest. I almost think Justin’s case is worse, though. He is tabbed as THE Mullins guy in the industry and got him in a ton of spots… EXCEPT HIS MAIN EVENT LEAGUES!!!

1:48

Alex: Is this the year the Giants finally end their championship drought?

1:48

Paul Sporer: They’re a quality team, but I do not see them as a WS favorite

1:48

Chilly: Thanks for the chat as always.  Thoughts on ranger…his underlying looks solid, decent offense, recent qs….for ros?

1:50

Paul Sporer: You’re welcome, thanks for coming out! I’ve been SUPER impressed w/Ranger Suarez. I was kinda blown away when they took their closer & made him a starter, but I also didn’t know all that much about Ranger Suarez in the first place so the Phillies know their guys better than some dork in Texas. I’m just glad I didn’t cut him where I had him as a closer bc now he’s delivering solid IP as a starter and he’s stretched out enough to garner wins regularly

1:50

Dave: So the Tigers won the Fister trade now, right?  Who gets drafted higher in

1:50

Paddy: Vlad Gutierrez on a nice run but the underlying metrics are not great. Pitching over his head?

1:50

Dave: Who gets drafted higher in 2022– Ray or Rodon?

1:50

Paul Sporer: I’ll get to the Vlad Q in a moment, meant to post Dave’s back-to-back, but the chat skipped on me

1:55

Paul Sporer: Folks probably owed Dombrowski an apology re: the Fister/Robbie Ray trade even before this year, but that’s another story. I’d like to know where both Ray & Rodon will be next year since they are both FAs, but I think we really have to see the ROS and playoffs to know who will go first. Right now, Ray is definitely going first. He should be an AL Cy frontrunner (he and Lynn are so close… Lynn has a big ERA edge, but Ray has a big IP edge) and Rodon is coming off the IL (not that it’s a major injury, but a draft today would def see Ray ahead). I’ll have them close, but if you want me to commit right now, gotta go Ray over Rodon

1:55

Paul Sporer: As for Spider Neck:

2:00

Paul Sporer: Vlad Gutierrez started strong but it felt like a complete mirage. No out pitch, modest component numbers. Then he got hit up a bit and it was expected regression. He then went back to the “how is he doing this?” starts for 5 starts, but these last four are showing something more believable with a 27% K and 5% BB over his last 4. Of course, there’s only one good opponent in that time (ATL) as he’s dominating PIT, CHC, and MIA. So it’s probably schedule-influenced and I remain a bit skeptical on him overall. I still don’t see a true out pitch but he needs to be rostered and mostly started against non-elite opponents

2:00

JuanGoato: Any chance your boy akil gets ROY?

2:01

Paul Sporer: The IL time missed dents him pretty badly. He’ll need a HUGE September to get there, but damn he’s been fun and his transformation at the dish has been really cool to watch

2:01

Gavin Gavin: Looking for a final OF for the playoffs–rosters lock. H2H points–do you like Naquin, Renfroe, Enrique Hernandez, Brandon Marsh, or Connor Joe the rest of the way?

2:06

Paul Sporer: I don’t know the schedules off-hand so you gotta check those out and it’d take a good # of home gms to go w/Joe. Naquin’s volatility worries me (and you can see what kinda lefty SPs are coming up on his schedule). I like Marsh long-term, but want more stability if I have to trust one guy for a month, so that’s leading me to one of the Red Sox. I’ll go Renfroe over Hernandez

2:07

ScottTINSTAAPP: Do you think Luis Gil and Aaron Ashby are holds in the Main? We are behind in saves and essentially punting, going with 8-9 SPs chasing wins. I worry it will be hard to know when they will be starting to trust them as part of our 9 P each week.

2:09

Paul Sporer: You highlight the reasons for concern w/them so I wouldn’t hold both. I like Gil more if both had spots which they obviously don’t so I actually see Ashby getting more shots since we know MIL is going to manage IP rest of way

2:09

Eric: Any similarity between Montas finally putting it together recently and Gausman last year?

2:11

Paul Sporer: Yeah, the similar arsenals and the effectiveness of their splitters driving so much of their success, and my unending adoration of both!

2:11

Guest: Do you think Mitch White stays in the rotation rest of season?

2:11

Paul Sporer: Is he called back up yet?

2:11

Mize: Is there any truth to the idea that large arsenal guys like Mize are slower to develop due to having more pitches to develop at once?

2:13

Paul Sporer: Has there been some research on this? I’m unfamiliar w/this concept. Plus, has he even been slow to develop? Took some lumps last year in 28 IP and now has a 3.55 ERA/1.16 WHIP in 129 IP. Ks are light, but I don’t see a massive surge coming unless he makes stark changes. He just doesn’t have a strikeout pitch or focuses more on efficiency and groundballs

2:13

Eric: Cal Quantrill at 40 suggests he is real. Is he the next Cleveland surprise?

2:13

Paul Sporer: I was pretty huge on Quantrill coming into the year due in large part of Cleveland’s development of SPs so I’m buying

2:13

JuanGoato: Who is your favorite hitter to use in mlb the show? Pitcher?

2:14

Paul Sporer: Alfonso Soriano has been an absolute god for me. Verlander & deGrom are among my favorite SPs. Moving away from mega-diamonds, Mark Canha’s live series silver is an AUTO draft for me in Battle Royale and Tejay Antone is a god in the bullpen in the same mode

2:14

JuanGoato: Is there any metric other than QS or W that one could use to measure starting pitcher performance for a league scoring system? They both seem very flawed.

2:15

Paul Sporer: Innings? The pushback has always been that ppl could stream IP easily but I mean if they are just rostering clowns who are bashing their ERA/WHIP, then their IP gains would be mitigated

2:15

ScottTINSTAAPP: LOL Mason…that’s so funny, at least he didn’t draft 7 red suitcases this year before claiming bad injury luck haha

2:16

Paul Sporer: How many did he actually draft? I know it was more than 1 and then after a few injuries in season, boom his entire reserve roster was merked

2:16

Vic: Liking the production I am getting from Avisail Garcia. His Statcast numbers seem to back it up. Thoughts on him going forward.

2:17

Paul Sporer: Big ups to Derek Carty & The BAT for putting me on Avisail Garcia. He had a huge projection before the Jackie Bradley Jr. signing and even though the proj. dipped after that, I stayed bought in bc I’ve been on the JBJ train enough to know it usually doesn’t even leave the station.

2:17

Scotty: 12 team Dynasty league with 20 keeper spots… is Logan Gilbert worth keeping?

2:17

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I feel like we’ve seen enough for him to be a top 240 pick

2:17

Marlins Rotationj: Did Zach Thompson lose his position in the rotation? It seems so but I haven’t seen any info on it

2:17

Marlins Rotationj: Scratch that. I see he’s scheduled for Friday now.  Is Zach Thompson going to lose his rotation spot when Trevor is activated, or is it Cabrera or a 6 man?

2:18

Paul Sporer: Shouldn’t it be Luzardo? Let’s stop the bleeding w/him and hope he can get right for ’22 and beyond

2:18

Tim Whatley: Alec Bohm worth holding onto heading into 2022 or time to cut bait?

2:18

Paul Sporer: Definitely depends on league settings & # of keepers, of course

2:18

Abraham Toro: Am I a legitimate 2022 fantasy sleeper/breakout candidate?

2:21

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes. We learned he was surprisingly divisive after the Graveman deal as a decent number of folks hated the trade bc they don’t like Toro as opposed to the “optics” of the deal. I like Toro and think he has 20-something pop w/.270+ AVG capability. If this year’s 4 are any indication, maybe we could sneak 6-9 SBs as well over a full season. And just to stay on today’s theme, his 2B elig. helps, too!

2:21

Clown Question Bro: Are we witnessing the “quitting on the team” by Trevor Story? He took an 0-8 yesterday…thoughts?

2:23

Paul Sporer: It’s hard to put that on someone w/out knowing their true feelings, but it seems pretty clear Story hates that he’s still in Colorado – and rightfully so, they’re so remarkably stupid for not trading him – but I’m not going to say he’s quit on his team just bc of an 0-for-8 doubleheader against a bad team. His 2H OPS is actually still 20 pts higher than 1H

2:23

IowaBoy1327: Do we finally see Mckenzie Gore before season is over, with SD having so many problems with pitching I’m kinda surprised?

2:24

Paul Sporer: I think the fact that he hasn’t come up speaks volumes about where he’s at right now. Reminiscent of Forrest Whitley in HOU when they just kept passing him over. He’s still just 22 so we can’t completely discard him, but his stock has plummeted and I’m not sure we see him at any pt this year

2:24

Guest: How high would you take Trout or deGrom in a 2022 redraft league?  Do the significant injuries this year knock them into the second round?

2:24

Paul Sporer: No, I’m still taking both in the 1st round as of now (if they got worse news that altered their future, obviously I could pivot).

2:25

Alex in Austin: It seems like you’re 20-30 spots higher than other on Zach Thompson.  Why so high?

2:25

Paul Sporer: Why are they so low?

2:27

Paul Sporer: I’m not trying to be flippant, but if some are 20-30 spots lower than my 51 ranking, that’s kind of wild to me. I know the Ks are down a bit lately, but I just don’t see how there are enough useful pitchers to put someone w/a sub-3.00 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in the 70s or lower

2:27

Dave: Have you heard any scuttlebutt on what exactly has gone on with Matt Manning?  He seemingly hasn’t been the same since the shoulder issue last year… but they’re pitching him, so the Tigers don’t seem to think it’s a health thing (I’d hope). What happened?

2:29

Paul Sporer: I haven’t heard anything directly, though I’ll be asking some folks about him when I go to First Pitch Arizona in October. The shoulder injury you mentioned could be healed enough to pitch but may’ve altered what he can do on the mound since we’ve seen such a different version of him. It could also just be a trough in his development path. Don’t forget: prospect growth isn’t linear. He will be dirt cheap next year and I’ll gladly take the gamble

2:29

Rudy: For next year, please rank these utility guys all eligible at 3B: Toro, I. Diaz, E. Rivera, Chang. Thx!

2:30

Paul Sporer: Definitely Toro & Diaz far above the other two. Would need to see if Rivera/Change get full-time spots at all or even 5 gms a week type play. I swear I’ve seen all 5 of Chang’s HR and his 2 3B bc every time I see him, he’s doing something big and then I check his season line and it’s .205/.242/.385

2:31

Matt: Not a question, but the Wander Franco adjustment has been pretty cool to follow.

2:31

Paul Sporer: It really has. I love watching development in real time. His has delivered many more results than Kelenic’s, but watching Kelenic almost day-to-day, I’m also seeing some improvements w/his approach. Very excited about the future for both!

2:31

IowaBoy1327: For ros who would you take from Reds bullpen?

2:31

Paul Sporer: Givens for SVs

2:31

Brandon: Thanks for the new rankings, always look forward to it. I was a little surprised on how low you were on Logan Webb. Do you see something in his profile to be concerned about?

2:32

Paul Sporer: Is 39 low???

2:33

Paul Sporer: Again, not being flippant, but I really like Webb so 39 felt good to me

2:33

Darum: Paul, where would Urquidy slot in your sp ranking when he gets back?  Also, any chance Javier gets back in the rotation in September?

2:34

Paul Sporer: I stilllllll see a Javier/Garcia flip even though it hasn’t happened or been discussed. I’m starting to be like Justin w/the NL DH, lol. But I truly cannot fathom them using Garcia all season in the rotation as he likely wouldn’t have any gas in the tank for October. So it seems like an easy switch w/those 2. As for Urquidy, he’ll be top 40ish off rip upon return, but we’ll have to see if they ease him back in tandem starts and things like that. If so, he’s more top 70, espec. if he’s only getting 3-4 IP at the frontend of games w/Javier piggybacking

2:35

ScottTINSTAAPP:

 

Justin Mason
@JustinMasonFWFB

 

Update to my main event IL list:

Round 1: Degrom
2: Stanton
3: Snell
8: Gennett
9: Odor
10: Severino*
13: Meadows
15: Nelson*
18. Sano*
19: Strickland
20: CMart*
22: Odubel Herrera
26: Kingery
27: Michael Fulmer

*Drafted hurt

21 Apr 2019
2:35

Paul Sporer: Yeah drafting 4 hurt guys is a tough strategy

2:35

KCBbq: Who do you like more in 2022, Eli Morgan $1 or Patino $3? 12 team AL only 5×5 H2H keeper league using W+QS.

2:35

Paul Sporer: Prefer Patiño, but Morgan is likely to make my sleeper lists next year

2:36

Paul Sporer: Another homer for NL ROY, Jonathan India!

2:37

Paul Sporer: OK y’all. I have to get going. Sorry again for missing yesterday, but thank you for coming out today on the makeup. I will reply to as many comments as I can on the SP ranks so feel free to leave one there: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-updated-sp-rankings/ — Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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MLBtoPDX#2024
2 years ago

I missed the chat yesterday. Wanted to ask about Some random Minor League SP “Breakouts” that I believe should put em in Prospect Charts radars. 1: Cooper Criswell, it looks like 3-4 starts in AAA his numbers haven’t feigned much… could he be a late bloomer or just an overlooked player who’s been scorned by the prospect hounds?
2: Glen Otto: Looks like he might be the steal of the Gallo Trade? His AAA numbers have been strong and his Cup of Coffee is coming this/next week (I believe), could he be another overlooked pitcher like Zac Gallen was?
Last but not least. John Doxias? I know he’s with Tampa and it’s hard to read em but could be the next SP for them (besides Baz) to make the Jump? Thanks I appreciate all you do