Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – September 22nd, 2021

Paul Sporer: Wooo, welcome to September 222nd!!!

ScottTINSTAAPP: September 222nd let’s go!

ScottTINSTAAPP: I see you’re almost cashing in the overall of the ME, bring it home man!

Paul Sporer: Sooo close! Would loooove to do it

ScottTINSTAAPP: I’m a bit nervous about Rake since he’s playing with the finger fracture…do you think he’s an auto start for the last week or are you open to benching him if you have a slightly worse talent on the bench (like La Stella type)

Paul Sporer: Definitely open to sitting him for the final week-plus at this point for the same reason. Not a MUUUST start right now

Julian: When will you have your 2022 rankings out?

Paul Sporer: Working on them already and have some plans for rollout. Don’t have an exact date, but things will start coming out in October

Paul Sporer: Julian, for some reason it’s not allowing me to add your question re: the auction calculator into the chat, but I see it and I’ll mention it on our next mtg about the AC & offseason stuff

Mike: What do you make of Aaron Ashby? He’s been awesome, but do you think he would be able to replicate this success as a starter? Or is he a likely multi inning reliever?

Paul Sporer: I still see starter upside. Big Ashby fan myself and happy to see him rebound from that dreadful debut (not that I didn’t think he would)

Guest: Patrick Sandoval going to be a top 50 starter next season?

Paul Sporer: I can’t go that high, especially ending the season w/an injury

Slapshot: First half Daulton Varsho was pretty ugly.  Second half Daulton Varsho has been pretty good and feels like the type of numbers some of his pre-draft rankings would have suggested. Where would you rate him going into 2022, specifically with regards to his catcher eligibility?

Paul Sporer: I think he could be a .250-20-10 kinda guy at C which is top 10 at the position. I’ll be buying most likely

Trey: Is Perez the #1 catcher next year or does Realmuto hold on to that?

Paul Sporer: I think Perez will leapfrog him

Eric: What to do in 5×5 ottoneu when you own both Salvy & Adley?

Paul Sporer: Think you gotta move on and selling high on Salvy seems like a great idea

Trey: This was my first year playing Roto instead of H2H, and I liked that it felt more fair, but it became hard to keep people engaged when it felt like the standings were unchangeable late in the season. Any advice on keeping people engaged?

Paul Sporer: That is always a challenge, though I think it can be a challenge in h2h too as playing spoiler isn’t always a huge allure. I’ve seen 2nd half prizes (highest pt total in 2H gets a piece of the pool… I’d say at least entry fee back), also penalties for last to keep ppl pushing to get out of that spot (don’t reco this in a high turnover lg, though as the last place tm will usually just bail). Anyone else in chat have ideas on maintaining roto engagement for the non-competing teams? Ooh another one is draft order starts w/1st team out of money so say 4 get paid, draft goes 5-12 then 4, 3, 2, 1

Mike: Any favorite bats or pitcher streams (say under ~50%) for next week?

Paul Sporer: I haven’t studied next week’s slate yet, but I’ll be keeping the SP Chart going: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/sp-chart/

Ned: Lamonte wade was a nice pickup this week facing 6 righties. Any  batting streams next week stick out to you?

Paul Sporer: Best I have off the top would be stack games and there’s a good # of 7-gm teams

Paul Mushrooms: In May, I offered Rodon and Semien for Corey Seager.  The guy declined.   I’m now winning my league.  Any trade offers you regretted or relieved that it wasn’t accepted?

Paul Sporer: I’m only in one trading league this year and I only semi-regret not selling Yelich on some buy-low offers that look a bit better now, buuuuttt I’m in the finals this week so I can’t be TOO upset

Sean: Would you cut blackmon for this week’s matchups, despite being in coors, and pick back up next week? Or not enough power to roster next week?

Paul Sporer: Bc LAD & SF are good? I dunno, I’d still lean on Coors. I’m either riding w/him through this homestand or leaving him completely. If you cut, I don’t see huge upside in getting him back next week (3 home v. WAS and 3 at ARI… which is good, but I’d just go the whole way w/him personally)

Jay: CJ Cron ranks 83rd in fantasy points on CBS, but almost all of that value is concentrated in his home starts (18 hr, .322BA, 63 RBI at home; 9HR, .226 BA and 22 RBI on road.) Does that make him even MORE valuable in daily leagues, because you can start him at home and bench him when he’s likely to stink?

Paul Sporer: Definitely adds some value when you can clearly eliminate his downside, though I doubt he’s in Colorado next year so it won’t be as easy to identify. Fair to say that the hype of him going to Colorado paid off

Guest: Hey Paul! Trying to map keepers for next year and I’m stuck. Keep 3 at round value
Freeman  – 1st rd
Soto – 1st rd (traded for this season, 2nd rd if I keep Freeman)
Mullins – 14th rd
Luis Garcia – 14th rd
Jorge Polanco – 16th rd

I’m leaning to trade Feeeman to move up some picks elsewhere and keeping Soto, Mullins I just can’t decide on Garcia v Polanco

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m w/you on Soto/Mullins and then coming down to Garcia/Polanco. Loooove what Garcia has done and I was dead wrong about them taking him out for Cristian Javier (I remain stunned by that, tbh) but I’m inclined to go w/the hitter here and then just stack pitching in the draft

Murray: Do you think Logan Gilbert will be a top 25-30 starter next season?

Paul Sporer: That’s a definite possibility. I’ll probably have him around top 40ish to start the season w/major upside

Alvin: Who should I drop when Franco returns: Mondesi, Grisham, or Mountcastle?

Paul Sporer: I’d cut Grisham

Thiago: Would you start Ynoa against the Padres this weekend?

Paul Sporer: Yes, he’s back to an auto-start

Ezekiel: Do I bench Tyler Mahle at home now no matter who he’s facing?

Paul Sporer: Another dud yesterday, this time v. Pit. Despite the stark home/road split, I’m still starting him v. WAS this weekend. Thankfully his last start is AT Pit next week

Mike: Would you start snell in his first game back off IL?

Paul Sporer: Not if it’s next week as they close w/at LAD, at SFG… they’re so f’d

Guest: What does Cincy do this offseason?  Is Barrero ready to take over aat SS or 2nd.  Not much ML experience there.

Paul Sporer: Probably some dumb shit, let’s be honest, lol. Anyway, Casty is probably going to bounce. I do think Barrero will be the SS. I imagine they’ll discuss trading Gray or Castillo. I just think they’ll be underwhelming and continue to waste their talent

RAGBRAI: Suarez has looked great as a starter.  Do they keep him there or does he ended up back in the BP? Who are Phillies porjected starting five as of todaay fo 22?  Do they added a SP via trade/FA?

Paul Sporer: I’m pleasantly stunned by how great Ranger Suarez has been. I’d be surprised if they took him out of the role given how successful it’s been. He will 100% be in my SP rankings as I assume he’s starting until I hear otherwise. Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, and Gibson are in with a 5th likely to be bought or traded for

RAGBRAI: What is in the water in STL?  10 game streak, have taken two  from the Brewers.  Do they hold on for a WC? Who do they match up better with for the WC game?

Paul Sporer: Cardinals Devil Magic is backkkkkkk!!!!!! Lester & Happ acquisitions at the deadline? No problem, it’s playoff time baby! lol. I don’t think LAD or SFG presents a markedly better matchup for them, though LAD’s offense has been cold of late so maybe them based on that flimsy notion (flimsy since they can get hot on a dime)

Cito: Daily points league and Senzatela faces SFG at home this week. He’s been good the past month, but he should be on the bench…. or should he?

Paul Sporer: I’d say the best case is about what he did yesterday v. LAD – 6 IP/4 ER/3 K so if that has some value to you and you can afford a potential negative (which is the downside) then go for it. But the risk is substantialllll

Guest: Paul, please tell me that the Yankees wont do the worst possible things this offseason like sell low on Torres, Voit, sanchez or urshela and sign Correa?  Please tell me they will be smart and keep Stanton in OF, make Sanchez a permanent DH, trade J Montgomery and DJ for spects and bullpen arms, and sign JV for 2/$50MM and Max for 3/$105MM and sign a real C and let velasquez handle SS until volpe is ready

Paul Sporer: I mean they are a pretty smart org. Cashman is an elite GM and it’s not just his resources that make him so. I don’t think they will necessarily follow your blueprint to a t, but I expect some activity and it’s often smart activity for them

Jeff in T.O.: So Kiermaier and the scouting card… good play, bad play, meh?

Paul Sporer: Mostly meh. EVERYONNNNEEEEE picks it up except that dweeb Alex who called himself out of bounds in the championship game. I call complete BS on anyone climbing their moral high horse here

Paul Sporer: Alex:

RAGBRAI: How quiet will it be from the end of the Series to Dec 1 on the FA signing and trade front.  Will FO’s want to get things done before Dec 1 or will they be more inclined to take a wait and see attitude?

Paul Sporer: I think it could be very quiet before the CBA is situated. It might be a very bizarre offseason

Dave: Are you a Lane Thomas believer for 2022? Even if Robles reclaims his position, the Nats could easily move Thomas to left field.

Paul Sporer: He’s just 25 and I think there is some upside. I obviously wouldn’t just extrapolate his 34 gms w/WAS, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was the Opening Day starter

Paul Sporer: brb gotta let the dogs out then we’ll do a few more Qs!

Porcho Villa: Eloy has looked lost for over a month now. Think there might be a hidden injury? Would you drop him for a streaming offense spot (available bats include Sano, Rodgers, Siri, Varsho, H. Dozier)?

Paul Sporer: I don’t know that he’s hurt over just slumping (.515 OPS, 29% K, 0 HR in Sept.) but I’m not averse to moving on for a hotter hand. Obviously wouldn’t do it mid-season, but this late you’re going for every stat you can get and I’m not against dropping a slumping guy like this (wouldn’t do it w/like Juan Soto or something) who hasn’t played much this yr and been hurt a good bit

Guest: Of these young pitchers, who do you like most going forward? Luis Gil, Carlos Hernandez, Christian Javier or Brady Singer…

Paul Sporer: I’m not fully out on Javier despite my L regarding him taking over for Luis Garcia to save Garcia’s IP but I think he’s 2nd to Carlos Hernandez. He’s got a 4-pitch mix, throws super hard, and has shown bat-missing ability that suggests his 22% K rate can really surge

Two-Ways Shohei: Re: where he should go in 2022 draft.

Paul Sporer: He’s an easy 1st rounder for me

Chris: I’m hanging on by a thread in ratios but also need wins to keep a point in my roto league. I’ve already got Wheeler starting today. Should I start Patino against the Blue Jays as well?

Paul Sporer: No, I don’t think his win potential is nearly high enough to take the ratio risk

DW: Man just reading through this, why is keeping Gary Sanchez as a full time DH even in the cards?   Dude is a sub .800 OPS guy, the fact that he is a catcher is the only reason we care who he is

Paul Sporer: Yeah I don’t think there is a NEED to keep Sanchez at DH at all but I also don’t think he’s done behind the dish just yet (not that I see upside, but just expect him to keep getting reps)

Duuuude: Ryan over Sale tonight??  What are you smoking?

Paul Sporer: they are 4-5 (https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-chart-september-22nd-20…) lol. and despite the Cubs actually holding a good wOBA vR lately, I still prefer Ryan’s matchup to Sale’s (NYM)

Theo: Would you bench Eloy for Mountcastle the rest of the way, or at least until Eloy snaps out of his funk?

Paul Sporer: Like that even better than cutting, but also not averse to cutting him as the other person was looking to do

Kate: Aaron Ashby has looked pretty damn good since that first horrid appearance.  I love that he gets both Ks and grounders at a high rate, and the control has actually been solid.  Saw recently a fairly prominent dynasty prospect list moved him above all the prospect arms.  If the Brewers put him in the rotation from Day 1 next year, is this a major breakout candidate?

Paul Sporer: We actually had an early Ashby Q and I really like him. The Brewers just keep pumping out pitching and I think he could be their next big gem

Duuuude: Re Ryan:  I hope you’re right; I’m starting him and need a big game!

Paul Sporer: I like his chances!

Duuuude: No way bro, if you aren’t drafting Will Smith as top catcher, you’re crazy.

Paul Sporer: Re: Perez at 1. I’m not saying I’m ranking Perez 1, but I think he will be the top C drafted

RAGBRAI: Will Hiura get another shot in Milwaukee or has that ship sailed? Is he a change-of-scenery candidate?  He seemed to have a lot of talent and is still fairly young, but he just sort of lost it all this year.

Paul Sporer: I think it has sailed. He will be traded and the fantasy community will definitely overreact to it

Alex: If the Yankees let Rizzo go after the season and Voit’s back starting at 1B, are you back on him next year when his ADP will be way down?

Paul Sporer: Oh definitelyyyy!! I’d be surprised if he comes into the year without a job, whether w/NYY or elsewhere. I’m still fully in on him, especially at a discount!

Pete: drop Nelson Cruz for a streamer this week? Been cold and has a nagging injury

Paul Sporer: It’s only been a week of slump, but it coincides completely w/the nagging injury so yeah I’d be OK w/it

Paul Sporer: Don’t be afraid to move on from players this late for reasons you wouldn’t have earlier in the year. It’s do-or-die, get guys in there who are playing and helping you attack your categories.

Kate: How worried would you be about Story moving to a non-Coors park next year?  Obviously the specific park will make a difference, but just generally how do you feel about him outside of Coors?  I feel like maybe more has been made of him leaving than should be considering what we know about how much the Coors hangover hurts these guys on the road.

Paul Sporer: I’m not too worried at all, tbh, especially bc he will be cheaper for both that and his down season. I’ll gladly take the shot on him. I think he will remain a strong bat outside of Coors

Rian: Would you take Franmil or Tyler O’Niell over Grisham and Jimenez for the rest of the season?

Paul Sporer: Jimenez over all of em, but then O’Neill, Grisham, Franmil

JD: Daniel Lynch in an AL-only keeper league… his future worth anything, or throw him back?

Paul Sporer: There is upside there. I would be open to keeping him at a $1-3 level

Thor: What does Mullins look like going forward? will he keep stealing bases if he’s not chasing the 30/30 mark?

Thor: (Meant that Mullins question as a keeper question, BTW)

Paul Sporer: SBs are super fickle as we see year-in and year-out but I think he remains a 20+ threat and looks like a strong power-speed OFer slated to be taken in the 3rd-5th round range. I took him in the 3rd round of a 12-tm mock we’ve been doing w/some fantasy folks (discussed it on yesterday’s pod)

Kate: How are you projecting Bryan Reynolds going into next year?  This looks legit, but when I look under the hood I’m not seeing any major changes, more just incremental improvements.

Paul Sporer: I think that just shows how little last yr meant and with a full season, he’d have turned those numbers. I hope the 2-month blips to the high and low ends we’ve seen this year have reminded folks just how little last year meant. It was wildly overrated by the large majority of the fantasy community. Recency bias is a bitch and definitely hard to overcome when we’re assessing players

Guest: Last I checked in the NFBC Main, there was a guy in first and third place overall – do both teams have similar rosters that he hit on, or did he just do an incredible job at balancing his roster with a variety of players?

Paul Sporer: That’s Phil Dussault, arguably the best fantasy baseball player in the world right now and definitely tracking for the single best season ever. He’s called the Robot because well, he’s an absolute machine. Not only that, but he also has a team in 26th just for fun!

 

Phil Dussault

@PhilDussault27

 

2 weeks left 🤞🤞🤞

20 Sep 2021

Chip: Do you see LaMonte Wade as a potential everyday starter for SF next season if Belt leaves via free agency?

Paul Sporer: I think they’ve been pretty locked into platooning him. Maybe Ruf is his partner in crime?

Houzer: Should the Tigers pursue Eddie Rosario this offseason, even though Grossman and Badoo are here next year? If Candy sticks as their 3B, they need to find another power bat. Corner outfield seems like a good spot

Paul Sporer: Their only focus should be getting a premium SS from this class. Correa is a truly perfect fit but if not, then Story or Seager. It just fits so well to make that move given where this team is in their turnaround. I think Derek Hill might be showcasing himself for a starting role next year, too. Some great defense and the bat had some flashes. Unfortunately hurt now, but I liked a lot of what I saw from him.

Salty: Haha, yeah I guess the team in 26th is just the appetizer – good luck with your teams!

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much! Sitting 21st overall, so I’m beating one Phil team!

Kate: How much of Logan Webb’s performance are you buying going forward into 2022?  Grounders seem legit, but can he keep this level of Ks and control?

Paul Sporer: A lotttt of it. Remember, he was drawing early season attention for his improved changeup and after the slow start, he’s been an absolute stud https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/10-watchlist-guys-to-start-the-season/

gg: have you looked at you SP chart after the fact to see how your recommendations are working out?

Paul Sporer: Daily!

Paul Sporer: I hate when I have a huge miss

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!