Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – September 1st, 2021

Paul Sporer: Hey everyone, thanks for coming out!!

Bobby Witt JR: Is my phone going to ring?

Paul Sporer: If forced to bet, I’d say no, but not resoundingly. Something like 70/30 no

Guest: More saves the rest of the season – Ottavino or Fairbanks?

Paul Sporer: Hmmm, that’s tough, but gimme Ottavino

karasz816: Hey paul, fan of the show. Personal stuff got in the way havent been able to keep up much. How are your teams doing this season

Paul Sporer: Having a solid season and trying to bring it home! First in my Main Event, 2nd in an Online Championship lg (12 tms), 3rd in my TGFBI league. Getting smoked in both Beat Paul Sporer leagues. Decent in LABR, rough in Tout

Guest: is Reyes done as closer?

Paul Sporer: I think he should be, but probably gonna share a bit w/Gallegos

Keith: What has been your biggest learning moment this year?

Paul Sporer: That’s a fantastic question. I don’t think I have one single thing from this year that is new to my learning, but rather furthering some aspects I’ve been working on the last couple years: sharpening my FAAB bidding and actually being a little less patient in shallower leagues (10/12 teamers).

We often preach patience, but you can be TOO patient in shallower leagues where the wire is more robust and sure the guy you cut might come around, but you could have a better replacement for that month while he figures it out and then maybe even get said player back once he gets going. I’m not saying cut a 4th rd pick on April 15th, but churn a few roster spots every week in 10s and 12s makes a lot of sense so you can be in on the hot pickups of the year.

Salty: Do you think the analysis of September stats will be more true to form with the lack of a flood of callups this year – like, you may give more weight to someone who has a strong finish compared to previous seasons?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think it’ll be more on par w/the rest of single month analysis instead of giving it that big handicap of September when teams are littered w/10-15 new minor leaguers who skew everything

Joe: I should stop pinning all my hopes on Trout coming back, right?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’d say so unfortunately

ScottTINSTAAPP: Happy Jose Urquidy week! Stashed in the Main all this time, glad to see we’ll get 5 or so starts still from him

Paul Sporer: I’m so excited! Also held on and I really hope it pays off!

Trev: How bullish are you on Sale for next year?

Paul Sporer: Definitely wanna see how he finishes this year, but as long as he’s healthy I feel like I’ll be pretty high on him (top 10 almost assuredly)

Paul Sporer: Goldy with another bomb!

Vince: Top contender in 12-Tm, H2H Roto but dropped both Chapman and Swanson when they were killing me a month ago. Weak in HRs, Runs & RBIs and have been juggling MIs. ROS rank most value: Wisdom, Aledmys Diaz, Toro, J Rojas, Kiki Hernandez, C Hernandez, B Rodgers, Andy Ibanez, K Wong, J Lowrie. Thanks.

Paul Sporer: I’d go Wisdom and Rojas

Chamaco: Are you participating in the Twitch boycott today?

Paul Sporer: I was just streaming so I guess not. Why are we boycotting it??

CDawg: Is there a list/article somewhere that has all the September callups for today?

Paul Sporer: You could use this! https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/transaction-tracker?transact…

Gest: What has gotten into Kyle Freeland?

Paul Sporer: He’s a pretty good pitcher and has had previous success at Coors before so he’s just rolling w/success home and away. I’m particularly impressed w/the 27% K rate over his last 7 starts

Mistake?: I traded desclafani for E. Cabrera.

Paul Sporer: I think that’s OK. I’d probably prefer DeSclafani, but not so resoundingly that it’s a bad deal at all

Salty: BTW – to follow up an earlier question, good luck in your NFBC leagues – always fun to see someone who does analysis for the masses do well against the sharks

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much!! It’s been a helluva season and I’m really hoping to finish it strong

Wander Franco: How long will my on-base streak last?

Paul Sporer: 37

Joe: So on the Trout thing, is he even a first rounder anymore?

Paul Sporer: Definitely gotta see where he’s at health-wise but I’d still take him in the 1st

Mike: Would you keep both grandal and d’arnaud in a 12 team 1C redraft ROS? Don’t love carrying 2 catchers but value may be worth it?

Paul Sporer: I’d probably just stick w/Grandal

Kevin: I remember in a recent chat you said that Snell was washed up (or something to that effect). Has your opinion changed recently based upon the latest starts?

Paul Sporer: There is no world where I said that, but good try lol

bob: Is this year’s Brandon Crawford the new BC or is this an aberration?

Paul Sporer: I won’t be betting on a 35-year-old Crawford to repeat. He likely won’t be super expensive, though, either.

sean: Josiah gray’s last start concerning at all? You bumping down your top 40 rank?

Paul Sporer: Nah, first bad start against a quality lineup. And he’s 47th.

Sean: Kelenic seemed to be improving but astros seem to have his number and with so many games remaining vs them, as well as other bad matchups, he’s a drop in redraft right?

Paul Sporer: Oh I dropped him a while ago. Definitely off him for ’21 in anything but AL Only, but still in long-term for sure

Mike: Is blackmon cuttable in 12 team redraft?

Paul Sporer: 5 OF probably not, but 3 OF I get it for sure

sean: Rutschman or Baz getting the call in Sept? Which Sept callup do you think has the most fantasy impact?

Paul Sporer: I think Baz will but probably as an RP. I don’t see Adley Rutschman getting the call. Jose Miranda is someone I’m keying in on as a big September player

Who_Is_Zorbist: Brandon Lowe is a 70 grade Fernando Tatis. Pretty much the same player, just Tatis is a little better at everything.

Paul Sporer: More like 55-60, but that’s bc Tatis is elite. Lowe is still v good, though

ScottTINSTAAPP: you think Andres Gimenez is worth rostering in 15 team leagues? Starting to sit against RHP (like last night), not just LHP and he’s been bad. It feels like pure upside at this point, not sure it’s worth it

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I moved on. He’s not playing much or doing all that well when he does play

Chamaco: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/01/1032873942/twitch-boycott-hate-raid-att…

Paul Sporer: Oh wow, that’s horrific. One of my viewers actually told me about the messed up raid, but I didn’t get the full details that they were targeted to LGBTQ people. That’s so awful

Clown Question Bro: Better chances of closing next year for a stash:Sewald, Bednar, Finnegan, J Barlow or Ottavino?

Paul Sporer: I’d say Barlow, but do we really want the Texas closer?

Puddin’ Head Jones: Logan Webb or Cal Quantrilll.  Who do you like for next year?

Paul Sporer: I REALLY like both and I’m a huge Quantrill guy, but Webb has better K ability which makes him a better fantasy bet so I’ll be ranking him higher than Quantrill

I used to be Mel Clark: 16 Team OBP League, Keep 5, No Cost. Who would you keep out of Devers, Moncada, Ketel, Harper, Kyle Tucker, Mondesi, Lux, Rutschman, Scherzer, Darvish, Peralta, Castillo?

Paul Sporer: Devers, Harper, Tucker, Scherzer for sure. Last spot comes down to Darvish, Peralta or Castillo for me. I’d lean Peralta right now

Guest: Concerned about Darvish’s bad run? Recently acquired him for next year and not sure if I should be looking to move him in the off season

Paul Sporer: I have some concerns that his trouble coincides w/the crackdown: 5.74 ERA, though his 1.14 WHIP and 30% K are still good so not all hope is lost. His HR rate is through the roof at 2.2 which lends some credence to sticky stuff issues, but then why is BB% still so good? I’m concerned, but far from out

Olympic Beds: Joe Ryan day!!! Odds he can go 6 IP today?

Paul Sporer: Feels VERY low considering he’s done that once in the minors this year, but I am excited about Ryan overall

sean: When will next SP ranking update come out?

Paul Sporer: Mid-month

Old: What is Twitch?

Paul Sporer: lol

Raisel Iglesias: I’ve low-key had an awesome season.  What kind of contract have I earned?

Paul Sporer: Yeah Iglesias has been awesome. I’m bad at guessing facts & figures on deals, but I’d think something Hendriks-esque

Mr. Fister: NL Cy Young….do you have Buehler or the field? (Burnes or Wheeler)

Paul Sporer: I’d take the field just bc it’s not a lock for Buehler. I think Woodruff has a strong chance, too

Who_Is_Zorbist: The Rays had to choose between Jake Cronenworth, Willy Adames, Brandon Lowe, Wander Franco, and Taylor Walls. Meanwhile Red Sox fans are excetied for Christian Arroyo’s return.

Paul Sporer: LOL, yeah I think many forget the Rays had Cronenworth

Mr. Fister: Does Lance Lynn getting hurt make the Cy Young race between Cole and Ray?

Paul Sporer: Yep, definitely. Maybe one of Lynn’s teammates could be a darkhorse with a massive September, but it’s Ray/Cole battling right now

Cambodian Creamsicle: How much do the Brewers regret the Yelich extension?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think they’re too worried. There’s still a lot of skill there and he’s only 30 next year

Guest: The Wander Franco hype machine this winter is going to whip into a frenzy this winter, no?

Paul Sporer: Oh he’ll be a top 50 fantasy pick

Todd: How long will it be until another small market team (Rays, Cubs, Pirates, etc) wins the world series?

Paul Sporer: CUBS?!?!!? THE CHICAGO CUBS AS A SMALL MARKET TEAM?!?!?!??!?

Paul Sporer: Sorry, I was vomiting at that notion. They aren’t close to a small market no matter how hard they cry poor. As for when a smaller team will win again, who can say for sure. Could be this year. Those teams can hang w/the big dogs. It’s not pre-written that LA, HOU, NY-type teams will win

Slapshot: How would you rank Civale, Mize, and Luzardo as keepers for dynasty?  No salaries, 10 teams, standard 5×5 roto scoring.  Coming into this season I would have said Luzardo is the clear number 1, but I’m definitely not so sure anymore after his struggles this year.

Paul Sporer: It’s easy to say now, I understand that, but I don’t think Luzardo had a CLEAR advantage coming into the year. I’d have had him #1, too, but Civale right there. I dig Mize, but his lack of Ks has to be accounted for in fantasy. I still see a peak Jordan Zimmermann type statistically for Mize which can be v good

Clown Question Bro: I’m thinking I finally have to pull the plug on this year and am looking to stash Leon for next year. Can you give a brief as to what you expect from him from a fantasy standpoint next year? Thanks and I’ll take your answer off the air…

Paul Sporer: Pedro Leon?

Todd: Why won’t Less than Dave admit he was wrong about Plesac and you and the rest of the world was right?

Paul Sporer: We’d have to ask him directly!

Guest: Abe Toro or Andrew Vaughn for AL-only in ’22?

Paul Sporer: Vaughn. I still see HUGE upside from him. I like Toro, but Vaughn’s fantasy upside is substantially higher for me

6×6: R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP, SLG: Hey Paul, how would you rank these 2B ROS? All categories needed but slight pref for RBI, SB. Schoop, C. Hernandez, E. Sosa, B. Miller, J. Peterson

Paul Sporer: Schoop, Cesar, B Milly, Sosa, Peterson

Who_Is_Zorbist: Shane Baz, Luis Patino or Shane McClanahan long term?

Paul Sporer: McClanahan is my #1 of that trio w/Patiño close. I think Baz has some more RP concerns so he’s the clear third until we get clarity

goobles: Pains me to drop him but Gallo is killing me in my 10T. Do you see him having another crazy power stretch to end the season or is this just who he is?

Paul Sporer: Heck, he’s shown good pwr in August (5 HR, .219 ISO) despite the .156 AVG so it seems like the pop will always be there, but it’s not worth the AVG hit so I get cutting him in a 10-teamer

Urquidy for the needy: Sit/Start Urquidy Friday @SD, al only?

Paul Sporer: In AL Only, I’d go for it

Cal Ripken: I never sat because of soreness. Just saying.

Paul Sporer: Cool?

Paul Sporer: He was also a below avg hitter from 1992-98 when a few days off likely would’ve served him well so I mean it’s a dope streak and I respect Cal, but let’s not pretend like today’s players are soft bc they miss time. The game is different and they aren’t asked to play 162 a yr. Most guys would push through, but management wisely realizes it’s not worth it

Clown Question Bro: What do you see out of Pedro Leon next year if Carlos Correa signs elsewhere?

Paul Sporer: Low double-digit pop (13-16 HR), good spd (15+ SBs), modest AVG (sub .240) but solid OBP (.330+)

HappyFunBall: I should give up Cade Cavalli to get Louis Castillo right?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely

Joe: How have fans swallowed this small market BS so thoroughly?

Paul Sporer: I have no idea. Fact is, it’s all horseshit. No team is actually poor, they just want to keep their pockets fat so they make the org work within tight financial restrictions to keep profits high. But it’s especially gross to ever suggest that CHICAGO Cubs are a small market in any way, shape, or form

Gov Ricketts’ Brother: HOW DARE YOU!

Paul Sporer: The Ricketts’ are pigs

Sad, Confused Marlins Fan: Do the twins call up Miranda?

Paul Sporer: I can’t see how they don’t despite the fact that they haven’t yet

Luke: any major concerns on marquez with playoffs on the horizon? civale is on the wire and im wondering if i should make the flip

Paul Sporer: Always gonna have some concerns w/a guy in Coors (though some road games are hurting him lately). I love Civale, but not sure I’d cut Marquez for him. Surely you have someone worse you can cut?

Spot start: Zach Thompson or Tyler Anderson?

Paul Sporer: Going Anderson there and I’ve made a move on Thompson in the rankings to account for his recent struggles (he was too high in my recent update on the site)

Todd: Re: Cubs being small market – they couldn’t afford to keep their core (Baez, Bryant, Rizzo) so I don’t think they have the capital availability of some of the other powerhouses out there. It’s too bad though, perhaps Chicago should donate some tax funds to help them (similar to how they fund stadiums).

Paul Sporer: They made a chose. They absolutely could’ve afforded it. They’re full of shit to say otherwise.

Ronnie: Do you think Joey Bart will eventually find his footing in the big leagues?

Paul Sporer: Yes, prospect catchers just take a while to develop at the dish more often than not… so be careful w/Adley Rutschman expectations, too

LM414: What do we do with Kimbrel in saves leagues

Paul Sporer: I think you could’ve cut him shortly after the trade

Michael: You still have time to roll back your Cristian Javier call. Final chance!

Paul Sporer: I’m sticking with it. I just don’t see how Luis Garcia goes all year and October as a full-time SP. Maybe the Astros are going to RP him in October and so they’re fine giving him September in the rotation, too, but I’m still holding out hope for Javier to get some starts

Chuck: Brandon Crawford or Amed Rosario ROS?

Paul Sporer: Rosario if you need speed more (and I know B Craw has 10 SBs, but Rosario is definitely faster) and B Craw if you’re chasing power-based cats

Ronnie: Recommend a tv show, movie, doc?

Paul Sporer: Ted Lasso!

Oddball Herrera: September 1 and no Brujan, Baz, Hunter Greene, Miranda, etc.  Sad panda.

Paul Sporer: It’s not like today is the only day for call-ups, though. Where would Brujan play? Baz likely wouldn’t even start and I’m not sure Greene would make much impact at the MLB level, either. Miranda is the only one I reeeeaaallly want in the majors

2b woes: Should I drop Jeff McNeil for Solak? What about Bobby Dalbec (I can move someone else to 2b; h2h points)

Paul Sporer: I’d take either but I’ll lean Solak if you want a committed pick

Alex in Austin: Can you please drop Zach Thompson 30 spots in your rankings?  I’m concerned for your well being at this point and might send over a welfare check.

Paul Sporer: Relax

Broken Bat: Taveras of Rangers…do you forecast him being relevant in 2022? Only 24 years of age.

Paul Sporer: I’m a huge Leody Taveras fan. I was pretty hot on him coming into the season – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-next-top-150-hitters/ – and I’m not going anywhere even w/the year he’s had

Boris: Jake Meyers continues to start, even after the returns of Bregman and Tucker.  Think he’ll be everyday starter for ROS?

Paul Sporer: Oh yeah, I think they’ve been clear that he is their CF right now

Tale of the Taillon: You dropped Taillon on the pod. I feel a little like jumping ship, even in AL only, after last night. Has he kept dropping for you?

Paul Sporer: He’s tough to trust right now, but I’d be reluctant to cut him in an AL-Only. I think you gotta hang on as I doubt you’re picking up anyone near his upside

Luke: eduardo escobar is on the wire. am i crazy to keep sano over him in an OPS league? sano has been hot the past 30 days

Paul Sporer: Yeah they’re close in wRC+ over the last 30, but Sano has 6 HR to EE’s 1 so there’s more fantasy value from that standpoint. If you don’t need the AVG that EE has been showing in that time period (.306) then I totally get holding Sano

Rob: where does keibert ruiz fit in your ROS C ranking?

Paul Sporer: Off the top of my head, I’d say top 12-15. Love his contact ability

RAH: In a really deep dynasty and I’m hoping Derek Hill and Jorge Mateo can get me SBs down the stretch. Do you think they’ll hit enough to stay in the lineup?

Paul Sporer: Back to back days w/HRs for Hill. As a Tigers fan, I really like Hill. His defense will keep him in the lineup. The O’s will keep playing Mateo as long as he’s hitting well, too. So yes, both should be playing pretty often to help you get those SB chances

DH: Otto had nice Stuff+ – is he viable ROS in a 16 team league?

Paul Sporer: Yes, Glenn Otto definitely has deep league viability for sure and could even find himself some 12-team viability

sean: is pat wisdom a must roster for ROS in 12 team?

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure. Soooo much power!

Ruiz: Aside from Reamulto, Posey, Contreras Perez and Grandal. Start me in the playoffs?

Paul Sporer: I meeeeeaaannn, you could take a shot, but again rookie Cs take time so don’t hesitate to move on quickly espec. if it’s a 1-C league

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I have to get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!