Evan Carter isn’t a risk-free pick as there is some concern that he will sit against lefties, but I’m a sucker for young players with brilliant plate discipline and speed as well as enough pop to do some damage while being part of a premium lineup.
Anthony Volpe grinded through his rookie season with just an 84 wRC+, but the Yankees stayed committed to him for 601 PA and he managed to grind out a 21 HR/24 SB season. Meanwhile, his biggest weakness – the glove – became a strength resulting in a Gold Glove win. The underwhelming slash line now has his ADP trending lower than it did last year when he hadn’t taken a major league plate appearance which is wild to me. The 23-year-old still has a sky-high ceiling and while a repeat wouldn’t necessarily be worth his ADP, I’m willing to take the risk because the upside is a Top 25 hitter.
Gabriel Moreno’s first big MLB sample (380 PA) was just OK with a 103 wRC+, 7 HR, and 6 SBs. That said, his .284 AVG was 2nd among Cs with at least 350 PA and he had a postseason power surge with 4 HRs in 70 PA during the Diamondbacks run to the World Series generating some excitement for his age-24 season. The standout AVG gives him a solid floor to build upon while a mix of power improvement and more playing time could double that home run total. Another 6+ SBs is a sneaky bonus contribution as well. He has multiple avenues toward a breakout campaign.
A paltry .224 AVG and residence on one of the league’s worst teams keep Jack Suwinski’s profile low. His proponents see the 26 HR/13 SB and 112 wRC+ as reasons to buy Captain Jack. He offsets his 32% K rate with a robust 14% BB rate which fueled a 115-point split between his AVG and OBP, putting him in position to keep his SB opportunities up even when the hits aren’t falling. A league average 11% swinging strike rate and 6th-best Chase rate in baseball (22%; lg. avg is 32%) say he’s just not flailing up there and could even improve the K rate with some adjustments, too. That Pirates lineup is laced with upside candidates and could be spry enough to deliver a solid boost to Suwinski’s 63 R and 74 RBI totals, too.
Jackson Merrill is battling for a roster spot in Spring Training and helping his case by shifting to the outfield. Outside of Tatis, the SD outfield is barren which has created this fantastic opportunity for Merrill to make the team. He has a contact-heavy approach that has driven a .295 AVG in 881 minor league plate appearances along with 14 HR/21 SB per 600 PA. He’s a longshot for a massive breakout and intsead might only be something like a .265 AVG with a double-double – essentially something akin to Jeremy Peña’s 2023 – but as a post-300 pick instead of a top 120 pick like Peña was last year, that’s a nice return. Mar. 21st update: He has made the team as a starting outfielder and as such, his ADP has surged. I’m still very interested at this price point, but be prepared to pay up now if you still like Merrill!
