Archive for Breakouts

Like with my Busts, I consider breakouts to be players who will out-earn their current costs. Most of the time, my breakouts aren’t exciting prospects but stable veterans who aren’t sexy anymore. If you want exciting picks, look elsewhere. If you want league winners, stay around.

Changelog

• 3/12/2024: Initial list

Ranking Methodology

• ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
• $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
• ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
• 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net (though that’s not a big deal at SP).

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3/11/24

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Gerrit Cole getting an MRI on his elbow
• Edward Cabrera getting an MRI on his shoulder
• Mookie Betts moving to SS
• Joey Votto MiLB deal w/TOR
• J.D. Davis released by SF

SLEEPERS

Top 100 ADP

• Justin: Matt McLain 74
• Paul: Christian Yelich 75

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For Breakouts, I think these hitters will outperform their current draft cost. With hitters, I’ve found I don’t have a knack to determine which hitters will outperform their projections besides looking at playing time. The projections catch most of the other adjustments (e.g. new home park, aging adjustments, etc…).

I divided the players up by 50 spots of ADP so fantasy managers could consider the players in their league depth. 

Changelog

• 3/7/2024: Initial list

Ranking Methodology

• ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
• $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
• ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
• 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net (though that’s not a big deal at SP).

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s like second Christmas.

From 2015-22, one player per year has put up first-round value from the 12th round or later (15 teamers):

2015: Keuchel
2016: Villar
2017: Judge
2018: Snell
2019: KMarte
2020: Voit
2021: Mullins
2022: Adolis

History says another does it this year. Who ya got?

— Ryan Bloomfield (@RyanBHQ) March 20, 2023

Ryan Bloomfield of BaseballHQ has conducted this exercise every year for some time now. It’s one of my favorite exercises, if only because it has yet to fail us in at least eight years. (I’m pretty sure there were representatives from 2014 and before, too, and Bloomfield has simply tastefully truncated the list for us.) But, also, it shows the possible potential impact of a late-round draft pick. Obviously, you don’t want to waste any picks. But if you know where to look, it feels less random.

The common thread connecting these players is at least one extreme outlier tool—or five well-above-average tool. Dallas Keuchel was MLB’s reigning ground-ball king. Jonathan Villar had 80-grade speed. Aaron Judge has 80-grade power; Luke Voit, 70-grade with above-average contact skills. Cedric Mullins and Adolis García are five-tool guys. Blake Snell was a burgeoning ace who spiked a lucky ERA and 21 wins but was otherwise deserved of his rank. The only questionable one here is Ketel Marte because of the timing: he hit 32 home runs when the ball was at its liveliest and has yet to replicate that kind of power. But his hit tool is plus-plus, and sometimes all it takes is lucking into a little bit extra in one of the other categories to push you over the top. Perhaps the biggest takeaway is it’s much easier to sike first-round value as a hitter than as a pitcher.

So, who could it be this year? Let’s use the general categories outlined above as the framework for identifying potential first-round silver bullets. Keep in mind this is mostly for fun, but also it is deadly, deadly serious. In order of National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) average draft position (ADP): Read the rest of this entry »

As I did in the 1B piece, I’ll ask that we not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “breakout”. These are guys I like above their market price and have them easily outperforming their draft cost.

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops
• Outfielders

Kyle Bradish | BAL

My Projection: 3.74 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 175 Ks, 10 W in 166 IP

Bradish is getting some spring buzz in different pockets of the fantasy world, but remains remarkably affordable at the draft table as the 81st SP off the board in Main Event drafts so far. The 26-year-old righty is looking to build off a strong second half (3.73 FIP in 71 IP), including an absolute gem against Houston in late-September (1 out shy of a Complete Game with 10 Ks and 0 BB). He will need to trim his home run rate (1.3) which should certainly be possible in the revamped Camden Yards that is now a pitcher-friendly park and one major key will be continue reliance on his slider over the fastball. He was using it 36% of the time in his final 8 starts, up 10 points from his first 15, and shaving fastball usage is addition by subtraction. I’m not getting hung up on Bradish’s ugly spring ERA (8.74), but rather focusing on the 14 Ks and 3 BB in 11.3 innings. If he can trim down his implosion starts (8 last year), there is substantial potential here.

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As I did in the 1B piece, I’ll ask that we not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “breakout”. These are guys I like above their market price and have them easily outperforming their draft cost.

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops

Lars Nootbaar | STL  

My Projection: .267/.357/.451, 23 HR, 76 R, 69 RBI, 8 SB in 583 PA

Yep, I’m on the Noot Train. I’m just a sucker for a plate profile like that (0.72 BB/K – 16th highest among hitters with 300 PA, tied with Nolan Arenado). He’s got enough pop to chase down a biiig homer number, too (30+). I thought he was going to be a Wide Awake Sleeper – sleepers on every list, robbing them of any real draft value – but the early Main Event drafts saw him dropping so you can still get him as a reasonable price (ADP 188). He does have 6 SBs in 471 MLB PA, too, so I wonder if he could be a sneaky double-digit guy by taking advantage of the new rules. He is 2-for-2 on the bases in the WBC.

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As I did in the 1B piece, I’ll ask that we not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “breakout” as at least one of these selections has undoubtedly broken out before so it’s almost a re-breakout that I have them doing in 2023. These are guys I like above their market price and have them easily outperforming their draft cost. I understand that a “breakout” is more a first time thing, but they aren’t necessarily “sleepers” (although there is usually at least one guy in each of these pieces that is more deep league-friendly), either, so I chose the better of the two words.

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen

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Third base is rightly critiqued for its sharp drop of star talent around Alex Bregman or maybe Gunnar Henderson if you are in on him. I see Max Muncy as a bridge to Questionsville around pick 135. Some of my breakouts live in Questionsville, but are cheap enough to take on those potential red flags. These are guys I like above their market price and have them easily outperforming their draft cost.

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Shortstops

Josh Jung | TEX

My Projection: .250/.321/.443, 22 HR, 72 R, 78 RBI, 4 SB in 571 PA

It was a weird debut sample for Jung that featured some impressive pop (.214 ISO), but at the cost of way too many strikeouts (38%) in 102 PA. In the end, it’s a tiny sample coming off injury and Jung showed solid plate skills during his minor league ascent (21% K, 8% BB), capable of a much better AVG while not exactly giving back all the power (.311 AVG, .227 ISO in 675 MiLB PA). He is the 20th 3B off the board in Rotowire Online Championship leagues (236th) and I have him 14th with upside to hit low-.270s with a mid-20s HR total.

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As I did in the 1B piece, I’ll ask that we not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “breakout” as at least one of these selections has undoubtedly broken out before so it’s almost a re-breakout that I have them doing in 2023. These are guys I like above their market price and have them easily outperforming said cost. I understand that a “breakout” is more a first time thing, but they aren’t necessarily “sleepers” (although there is usually at least one guy in each of these pieces that is more deep league-friendly), either, so I chose the better of the two words.

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops

Max Muncy | LAD | +3B elig.

My Projection: .249/.374/.506, 33 HR, 87 R, 89 RBI, 2 SB in 583 PA

It’s time to get back on Muncy Train! He got his groove back at the end of last year as the elbow stopped causing him problems and the power returned with 12 HR in the final two months after just 9 through the first four. This is a hitter just one year removed from a 36-homer season with 94 RBI and 95 R. There has been a lot of talk about how the Dodgers lineup is one of the weaker ones in recent memory which will make it tougher for him to pull another 90/90 season, but a “weaker” Dodgers lineup still isn’t weak and thus an 80/80 campaign is well within reach.

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What is a breakout? There are different definitions depending on who you ask. Can someone be a breakout if they’ve already broken out? For the purposes of this article, a breakout is someone I have projected well above their current ADP. They are going to “break out” from their draft slot and deliver more production than the market thinks. I guess I could’ve just titled this “3 First Basemen I Like More Than ADP”, but that’s a clunky title so work with me here!!

• Catchers
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops

Here are 3 first basemen I like this year:

Wil Myers | CIN

My Projection: .265/.343/.493, 24 HR, 66 R, 71 RBI, 7 SB in 505 PA

I’ve been banging the Myers drum since he signed with Cincinnati so I’m sure no one is surprised to see him included here. I’d be interested in a slightly below average bat in Coors Lite aka Great American Ballpark let alone someone who has been a positive bat over his career (110 wRC+ in 4149 PA), only twice dipping below average. Health has certainly been a challenge for the 32-year-old 1B/OF, but that risk is covered in his price tag. Myers is going at pick 240 on average in the 19 Rotowire Online Challenge (henceforth referred to as “OCs”) drafts from March 1st-10th making him the 27th 1B off the board (58th at OF… I promise I won’t include in the 3 Breakout OFs, too!).

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