As I did in the 1B piece, I’ll ask that we not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “breakout”. These are guys I like above their market price and have them easily outperforming their draft cost.

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops

Lars Nootbaar | STL  

My Projection: .267/.357/.451, 23 HR, 76 R, 69 RBI, 8 SB in 583 PA

Yep, I’m on the Noot Train. I’m just a sucker for a plate profile like that (0.72 BB/K – 16th highest among hitters with 300 PA, tied with Nolan Arenado). He’s got enough pop to chase down a biiig homer number, too (30+). I thought he was going to be a Wide Awake Sleeper – sleepers on every list, robbing them of any real draft value – but the early Main Event drafts saw him dropping so you can still get him as a reasonable price (ADP 188). He does have 6 SBs in 471 MLB PA, too, so I wonder if he could be a sneaky double-digit guy by taking advantage of the new rules. He is 2-for-2 on the bases in the WBC.

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As I did in the 1B piece, I’ll ask that we not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “breakout” as at least one of these selections has undoubtedly broken out before so it’s almost a re-breakout that I have them doing in 2023. These are guys I like above their market price and have them easily outperforming their draft cost. I understand that a “breakout” is more a first time thing, but they aren’t necessarily “sleepers” (although there is usually at least one guy in each of these pieces that is more deep league-friendly), either, so I chose the better of the two words.

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen

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Third base is rightly critiqued for its sharp drop of star talent around Alex Bregman or maybe Gunnar Henderson if you are in on him. I see Max Muncy as a bridge to Questionsville around pick 135. Some of my breakouts live in Questionsville, but are cheap enough to take on those potential red flags. These are guys I like above their market price and have them easily outperforming their draft cost.

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Shortstops

Josh Jung | TEX

My Projection: .250/.321/.443, 22 HR, 72 R, 78 RBI, 4 SB in 571 PA

It was a weird debut sample for Jung that featured some impressive pop (.214 ISO), but at the cost of way too many strikeouts (38%) in 102 PA. In the end, it’s a tiny sample coming off injury and Jung showed solid plate skills during his minor league ascent (21% K, 8% BB), capable of a much better AVG while not exactly giving back all the power (.311 AVG, .227 ISO in 675 MiLB PA). He is the 20th 3B off the board in Rotowire Online Championship leagues (236th) and I have him 14th with upside to hit low-.270s with a mid-20s HR total.

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As I did in the 1B piece, I’ll ask that we not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “breakout” as at least one of these selections has undoubtedly broken out before so it’s almost a re-breakout that I have them doing in 2023. These are guys I like above their market price and have them easily outperforming said cost. I understand that a “breakout” is more a first time thing, but they aren’t necessarily “sleepers” (although there is usually at least one guy in each of these pieces that is more deep league-friendly), either, so I chose the better of the two words.

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops

Max Muncy | LAD | +3B elig.

My Projection: .249/.374/.506, 33 HR, 87 R, 89 RBI, 2 SB in 583 PA

It’s time to get back on Muncy Train! He got his groove back at the end of last year as the elbow stopped causing him problems and the power returned with 12 HR in the final two months after just 9 through the first four. This is a hitter just one year removed from a 36-homer season with 94 RBI and 95 R. There has been a lot of talk about how the Dodgers lineup is one of the weaker ones in recent memory which will make it tougher for him to pull another 90/90 season, but a “weaker” Dodgers lineup still isn’t weak and thus an 80/80 campaign is well within reach.

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What is a breakout? There are different definitions depending on who you ask. Can someone be a breakout if they’ve already broken out? For the purposes of this article, a breakout is someone I have projected well above their current ADP. They are going to “break out” from their draft slot and deliver more production than the market thinks. I guess I could’ve just titled this “3 First Basemen I Like More Than ADP”, but that’s a clunky title so work with me here!!

• Catchers
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops

Here are 3 first basemen I like this year:

Wil Myers | CIN

My Projection: .265/.343/.493, 24 HR, 66 R, 71 RBI, 7 SB in 505 PA

I’ve been banging the Myers drum since he signed with Cincinnati so I’m sure no one is surprised to see him included here. I’d be interested in a slightly below average bat in Coors Lite aka Great American Ballpark let alone someone who has been a positive bat over his career (110 wRC+ in 4149 PA), only twice dipping below average. Health has certainly been a challenge for the 32-year-old 1B/OF, but that risk is covered in his price tag. Myers is going at pick 240 on average in the 19 Rotowire Online Challenge (henceforth referred to as “OCs”) drafts from March 1st-10th making him the 27th 1B off the board (58th at OF… I promise I won’t include in the 3 Breakout OFs, too!).

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Several emerging backstops have given the position a bit of a renaissance right now and it feels the deepest it has been in quite some time. While that does offer more options lean on for quality production, it also means you need more production from the position to compete with your leaguemates. Here are 3 catchers I like to put up quality numbers behind the dish this year:

• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops

Tyler Stephenson | CIN

My Projection: .288/.359/.477, 19 HR, 72 R, 77 RBI, 1 SB in 506 PA

Stephenson was on his way to a breakout in 2022 before injuries derailed him and limited him to just 50 games. I’m right back on the train for 2023! The 26-year-old hasn’t delivered a ton of power yet (.158 ISO), but his 6’4, 225-pound frame says more in on the way, especially in that ballpark. The Reds also plan to utilize his bat more by way of starts at 1B and DH ($) which is always great for catcher-eligible bat. Power is plentiful in the upper rungs of the catcher ranks, pairing it with the batting average is what makes Stephenson special.

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One downside I have noticed in this stat-heavy era of fantasy baseball is that we sometimes struggle to see potential breakouts from guys who don’t have clear indicators in their underlying data. I understand why, but it can lead to glossing over growth candidates who take development strides beyond what their numbers suggested.

Trent Grisham | SDP, OF | 271 ADP – 63rd OF

It was an unquestionably bad season at the dish for Grish. He posted a career-low 83 wRC+ with 17 HR, 7 SB, and a career-high 29% K rate in 524 PA. He played enough strong defense to net a second Gold Glove win and put up a third straight 2-WAR season. He had the desired 100-point AVG/OBP split but that’s less impressive when he hit just .184! He values his walks with an 11% rate this past season and for his career, but perhaps being a bit more aggressive would favor him.

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Let’s continue reviewing my preseason calls and predictions by checking in on six hitters that broke out in 2021. In 2021, these hitters all earned more than $20 in value greater than what they earned in 2020. To qualify as “REAL”, they merely had to earn within $10 of their 2021 earnings. If their 2022 earnings declined by at least $10 from their 2021 marks, they would be deemed a “BUST”. Let’s find out how this group performed.

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Yesterday, I discussed six 2021 fantasy breakouts and concluded with a verdict as to whether I believed each was for real or would be a 2022 bust. Today, let’s discuss the 2021 busts. Will they rebound or continue down the path of bustiness?

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Earlier this week, I examined some of the reserve round picks in the AL LABR auction. Today, I’ve moved to the NL auction. To put it simply, the player talent took a significant step down from the AL options. So many players were rostered who will never make it to the majors this season or are just plain bad. For example, Nomar Mazara, who has yet to sign with a team and never had a productive major league season, was rostered.

Here are all the reserve picks

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