Spider-Men? Starters with Sticky Stat Success
Earlier this week, prompted by a Foolish Bailey dive into Jake Bennett and optimal contact prevention, I looked into the stickiest stats for starting pitchers since 2002 that mattered for predicting next season ERA. The four measures that, together, outperformed previous season ERA and did not vary much for pitchers from season to season were Zone%, Z-Contact%, GB%, and, a Rotographs favorite, K-BB%.
In that article, using a method recently popularized by Ben Clemens, I highlighted the best starting pitchers from this season in those four metrics, using weighted z-scores to compare across the metrics. Below are the top twenty starters.
| Name | Team | ERA | K-BB% | GB% | Zone% | Z-Contact% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | MIL | 1.75 | 33.97% | 45.05% | 44.79% | 77.42% |
| Cristopher Sánchez | PHI | 2.54 | 22.60% | 57.78% | 41.48% | 81.44% |
| Dylan Cease | TOR | 2.40 | 25.52% | 44.04% | 36.56% | 77.51% |
| Tarik Skubal | Multi | 2.93 | 26.25% | 43.30% | 42.52% | 80.04% |
| Chris Sale | ATL | 2.16 | 25.53% | 44.79% | 42.90% | 82.91% |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | 2.89 | 23.79% | 43.86% | 36.24% | 84.62% |
| Jesús Luzardo | PHI | 3.23 | 22.38% | 48.80% | 41.84% | 84.58% |
| Cam Schlittler | NYY | 2.19 | 25.75% | 41.69% | 42.89% | 82.72% |
| Gavin Williams | CLE | 3.74 | 24.29% | 44.38% | 42.44% | 84.95% |
| Paul Skenes | PIT | 3.88 | 23.33% | 40.00% | 39.86% | 83.11% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | 4.21 | 18.92% | 48.81% | 42.95% | 83.06% |
| Cade Cavalli | WSN | 3.36 | 19.03% | 49.46% | 43.60% | 87.83% |
| Ryan Weathers | NYY | 3.69 | 18.86% | 48.13% | 41.17% | 85.59% |
| Drew Rasmussen | TBR | 2.78 | 21.74% | 43.66% | 43.56% | 88.22% |
| Braxton Ashcraft | PIT | 3.88 | 21.25% | 44.83% | 44.72% | 88.44% |
| Nolan McLean | NYM | 3.42 | 19.19% | 45.61% | 41.13% | 87.03% |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | 2.60 | 18.35% | 47.61% | 42.87% | 86.68% |
| Jacob deGrom | TEX | 3.95 | 23.29% | 34.91% | 39.62% | 83.05% |
| Parker Messick | CLE | 2.59 | 18.05% | 44.77% | 41.07% | 85.46% |
| Chase Burns | CIN | 2.47 | 19.96% | 36.62% | 37.77% | 84.39% |
There are plenty of aces here, because of course there are. More interesting are the handful of young starting pitchers who were not considered to be ace adjacent heading into the season. This article is for them. Pitchers I think will be 2027’s Spider-Men. Not just because they’re great at sticky stats. But because they are 1) young and 2) set to support the current elite starting pitchers. I’ll focus on pitchers drafted outside of the first ten rounds of most fantasy leagues and especially those who have broken out and been fantasy relevant for either the first time or to a new degree this season.
Gavin Williams, CLE, weighted rank 9th
Sandwiched between Cam Schlittler and Paul Skenes in these rankings, the 6’6 Williams has been the best version of himself this season. Despite allowing far more homers this season, with a 1.45 HR/9 (career 1.18) and 17.5% HR/FB (career 13.3%), Williams has a sub-4 ERA and the best xERA of his career at 3.91 and FIP at 3.60.
This home run spike comes with a dramatic increase in strikeouts, as his 11.48 K/9 outpaces his career 9.92 K/9 by a healthy margin. Pair the increased punchies with a career-best BB/9, down to 2.72 from a career 3.74, and you can see how he’s managed to overcome the home runs allowed.
The underlying numbers back up these increases, as he’s running a career best first pitch strike rate and chase rate. Thanks to the Statcast Heart-Shadow-Chase-Waste zone rates, we can see that Williams is actually not throwing more chase pitches, he’s just getting hitters to swing at those pitches 10% more. His increased Stuff+ on the four seamer and sweeper/slider may help explain that increased chase. And his locations on two strikes for those pitches has been impeccable this season.
Given his exceptional K-BB%, strong GB%, and improved strike throwing, particularly to start at bats, Williams seems to be primed to enter his age 28 season next year ready to emerge as a true ace. All it would take is a bit of homer regression. Sign me up.
Cade Cavalli, WSN, weighted rank 12th
Cavalli has battled injuries throughout his professional career, but has put together a full season for the new look Nats in 2026. Like Williams, Cavalli is one of the adopters of the “power sweeper”, as identified by Rotographs’ Jack Martin this summer. The pitch gets nearly 15 inches of sweep for Cavalli and earns a whiff rate near 30%.
With a 3.22 ERA backed by a 3.22 xFIP (not a typo), Cavalli is clearly earning his results, largely due to command and strikeouts that have both continued to build. After starting the season with shaky command, Cavalli has dramatically improved as the summer has worn on. He’s earned his manager’s trust too, going six innings or more in eight consecutive starts. This has helped him win 11 games.
And, as many of these pitchers do, he gets a ton of ground balls, with a GB% near 50%. His sinker certainly helps generate grounders, but his six-pitch mix has done a great job keeping hitters off balance. Cavalli is showing all the markers of an ace ready to sustain his gains.
Ryan Weathers, NYY, weighted rank 13th
Like Cavalli, Weathers had yet to show much health in the majors until this season. For both young arms, this is the first season in the majors eclipsing 100 innings. Moving to the Yankees this offseason, there were rightful concerns about a young lefty moving into the Bandbox. But Weathers has been up to the task, thanks in part to limiting walks, racking up strikeouts, and a GB% near 50%. Weathers certainly is impacted by homers, with a 15.1% HR/FB and 1.21 HR/9. But his low walk rate and career-best K/9 has limited the damage.
The 26-year-old lefty has had to make adjustments to survive in this new environment, as his fastball has its worst run value of his career. But the changeup, sinker, and slider are all positive run value pitches for the first time for him. He’s lowered his arm angle on all of his pitches and upped the spin rates on the slider and changeup. He’s taken more than 1mph off the fastball, on average, which may have helped him stay healthy. And he’s clearly upped the usage on his sinker, sweeper, and slider, which gives him pitches that tunnel and move to both sides of the plate. This balanced arsenal has helped him have the best year of his career against righties, shaving 30 points off his career .334 wOBA against righties with a .304 mark this year.
The fact that his best results have been paired with mechanical changes signals that his gains will be sustainable. Especially in dynasty leagues, where there may be some fatigue with Weathers given his drawn out prospect status and establishment in the majors, he should be a target going forward.
Braxton Ashcraft, PIT, weighted rank
The best pitcher for the Pirates this season, Ashcraft is like many on this list in that he had never thrown 100 professional innings in a season prior to 2026. Now, he’s averaging 5.97 innings per start, including 17 innings across his last two outings.
Like Weathers, a sinker has had stellar results for Ashcraft this season, with a run value above 12 despite throwing the pitch less than 20% of the time. But the pitch has a 55 wRC+ against, taking the pressure off a fastball that, despite increased velo this season, has a 154 wRC+ against. Since last season, Ashcraft has continued to throw the sinker more often and with greater average and top end velocity. As he continues to iron out his arsenal, he clearly has a path to getting deep into starts for a team on the rise and in a division devoid of elite offensive teams. While his health history leaves something to be desired, Ashcraft’s stock is certainly on the rise.
Parker Messick, CLE, weighted rank 19th
Plenty has been written about the 25-year-old breakout this season. The All-Star lefty has a sub-3 ERA and plenty of strikeouts. He has been one of baseball’s best when facing hitters for the third time through the order, as noted by Ryan Blake of Fangraphs.
The most interesting thing about Messick was reported by Michael Baumann earlier this year for Fangraphs.
“Nothing that Messick throws moves normally. I’ve talked about his fastball’s odd rise-and-cut action from an odd combination of release point and arm angle. It’s not that the fastball has crazy action in any direction; it’s just a little weird.
All of Messick’s pitches are like that. He throws six pitches, each of which breaks in two directions. All six of his pitches have at least two inches of variation from the norm on at least one axis; three of them have at least two inches of variation on both.”
That movement profile has continued throughout the second half. In fact, he has not gotten easier to hit as the season’s gone on. Instead, he’s actually allowed less hard contact and gotten more soft contact in the second half, increasing his Soft% to above 20%, good for sixth in the majors in the second half.
Messick also has the sixth lowest BlastCon% against in the second half, meaning he is one of the league’s best at limiting hard hit balls at launch angles destined for home runs.
Combine that with his 69.9% first pitch strike rate in the second half, good for fourth-best among qualified starting pitchers, and Messick is clearly one of the best contact suppressors and strike throwers in the game today.
Honorable Mentions
Jose Soriano, 22nd
Reid Detmers, 24th
Payton Tolle, 25th
Landon Roupp, 29th
Foster Griffin, 30th
Sean Burke, 31st
Max Meyer, 34th
Emerson Hancock, 36th
Walbert Urena, 39th
Will Warren, 40th