Author Archive: Paul Sporer

On Wednesday we began our two-part deconstruction of the 2010 film… OK, OK, sorry. Gosh. Actually, I identified four AL starters I could see making the leap for 2017. Fans of the Senior Circuit needn’t fret, I’ve got some names for you today! By the way, sorry I pushed this a day, but the schedule was loaded plus we had a podcast so I decided to hold it.

Jon Gray | Rockies

A recommendation for a pitcher in Colorado?! Yes. Gray is a stud-in-the-making. The obvious path to success for a Rockies arm is “survive at home, dominate on the road”. Gray was actually worse on the road this past thanks to some meltdown starts and of course, he had a couple in Coors, too, yielding a paltry 4.61 ERA when it was all said and done. Despite the lofty ERA, he still had a 1.26 WHIP and best of all, a 26% strikeout rate.

His strikeout rate is actually the fourth-best from a rookie since 2000 (min. 162 IP). Only Jose Fernandez (28%), Yu Darvish (27%), and Rick Ankiel (26%… 26.4% to be precise) were better. Gray’s ERA was the worst of anyone in the top-15, but his WHIP was 7th-best of that confined group. The shortcut here would be to just point out that the FIP was 3.60 and his SIERA was 3.72. His skills were better than the ERA suggests.

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1/5/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

 Leading Off: Question of the Day (2:00)

• Is Mike Montgomery fit for starting?

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Rajai Davis to OAK (10:10)
  • Maybe interested in Mark Trumbo? (18:00)
• Drew Storen to CIN (22:35)
• Best spot for Tyson Ross? (30:00)

Strategy Section: Team-by-Team Breakdowns

• San Francisco Giants (34:30)
  • Lineup
  • Rotation
  • Bullpen
  • Favorite Target: Johnny Cueto, Joe Panik
  • Stayaways
  • Off-the-Radar: Ty Blach, Jimmy Rollins
  • Impact Prospect(s)

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This piece isn’t about that extra day in February that comes around once every four years. I’m a year late for that. No, this is a 2500-word breakdown of the 2010 rom-com starring Amy Adams, who has actually appeared in every single movie since 2005. I should’ve saved this piece for January 8th, which marks the 7-year anniversary since the film’s release, but we don’t post on Sundays. Anyway, Adams plays Anna who is… OK, I’ve taken this joke (and I use that term loosely) entirely too far, but I still kinda want to write 2500 words on this sweet, sweet movie film.

A leap year in sports isn’t an official thing, but “making the leap” is when a player puts it all together and pans out on previously established promise. I’m not even sure you have to have the promise or hype ahead of your leap, but the pitchers I’m discussing in this piece definitely do. “Leapers” over the last two seasons include guys like Aaron Sanchez, Danny Duffy, Carlos Carrasco, Gerrit Cole, and Carlos Martinez. There is no set formula or requirements, so this is definitely more of a feel thing.

Sanchez had all of 125.3 MLB innings, mostly in the bullpen before his 2016 breakout. Cole had two solid seasons with about 2/3rds of a full workload before his 208-inning masterpiece in 2015. Carrasco discovered himself in the bullpen as a 27-year old after multiple false starts in five disjointed MLB seasons (one of which was lost to TJ recovery).

To give some idea of what would constitute a leap year, I’d say first and foremost that you have to throw a full season (162+ IP) and then the stats can vary, but probably no worse than a mid-3.00s ERA, low-1.20s WHIP, and a good strikeout rate. Here are four American Leaguers who look ready for their leap in 2017 (I’ll have 4 NLers tomorrow*):

*Author Note – I mean Friday… we recorded the pod Thursday and I didn’t get to finish the last part of the NL piece, so look for it early Friday. 

Carlos Rodon | White Sox

Rodon keeps teasing with his second halves. Add up both and he has a 3.58 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 24% K rate in 146 IP. He took steps to combat his egregious walk rate dropping it from 12% to 8%. Early on, it seemed to be more control than command as his hit and home run rates surged in the first half (10.7 H/9, 1.5 HR/9), but the command came around in the second half as he continued to hit the zone while dropping the hits and homers to 8.3 and 1.0, respectively.

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1/2/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Edwin Encarnacion to CLE (7:00)
• Ivan Nova back to PIT (14:00)
• Ben Revere to LAA (18:40)
• TOR discussing w/Jose Bautista (22:00)
• COL discussing w/Greg Holland (24:30)

Strategy Section:

• Marcus Stroman v. Matt Moore for ’17 [tweet] (28:30)

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The bullpen market is always a fascinating one for its unending volatility. In fact, delving into it this early might be a mistake just because of how quickly it can change, though in fairness a lot of the change occurs in season. We could still see trades (I’ll touch on one possibility here in a moment) and signings to shake up a few situations, but I’d say somewhere around 23-25 situations are pretty well settled right now. Here are a handful of my early thoughts on the market as it is right now:

The Wade Davis trade adds another stud

The Royals might have actually improved their closer situation with the trade of Davis to the Cubs as there is some risk attached to the 31-year old after a season riddled with injuries. Meanwhile, Kelvin Herrera enters the closer mix and looks like a bona fide stud. He’s coming off a career-year in strikeout (30%), walk (4%), and swinging strike (15%) rates and handled the ninth brilliantly in Davis’ stead, going 10-for-10 in saves (though he did lose two tied games) with a 2.35 ERA (all 4 ER in the two losses), 0.78 WHIP, 32% K rate, and 2% BB rate (1 in 57 PA).

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12/18/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

 Leading Off: Question of the Day 

• How will SVs breakdown in MIA w/Brad Ziegler & Junichi Tazawa in the mix?

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Will Brian Dozier get dealt?
• Will TB trade an SP?
• Will DET trade a stud?
• Will HOU trade a bat?

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There are some guys I know I’m very unlikely to roster in a given season based on their cost. Let me acknowledge the obvious axiom that every player has their price, so if these guys all fell well below their current perceived prices (I did get some ADP data from Fantrax.com and I’ve been in a handful of drafts already because I’m insane), I’d likely pounce, but as it currently stands I just don’t see it. Without further ado, here are 10 guys I probably won’t be rostering in 2017 drafts.

Brian Dozier

Dozier had a fantastic 2016 with career-highs in HR, RBI, and AVG while approaching previous highs in R and SB. Perhaps the craziest part of it all was that he spotted the league two months (.624 OPS through May), but the surge has pushed him into the 3rd-4th round area. While the cost doesn’t require a full repeat, I just don’t think I want to pay that for what I think will be something like .255-28-15 from a 30-year old at a deep position. Flyball and hard contact jumps support the power boost, but his 18% HR/FB was also a career-high by quite a bit (previous high of 13%).

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Chat transcript is below!

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12/15/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

12/15/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

 Leading Off: Question of the Day (6:30)

• Where will Edwin Encarnacion sign?

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Dexter Fowler to STL (20:40)
• Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner back to LAD (28:00)
• Welington Castillo to BAL (34:00)
• Odubel Herrera signs extension (40:00)
• Derek Holland to CWS (47:30)
• Koji Uehara to CHC (52:00)
• Mike Dunn to COL (57:00)

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Pitching is a fickle market. Consider that just three years ago we had Anibal Sanchez, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Cliff Lee in the top 10 for ERA. Perhaps more remarkably, Shelby Miller, Andrew Cashner, Travis Wood, and Kris Medlen were all in top 20 while James Shields and Mat Latos were just outside. Life comes at you fast as a pitcher.

Obviously, injuries are the biggest factor in changing the fate of a pitcher and most of the names suffered an injury or three in the interim that has seriously altered their path. Tyson Ross put up 516.7 IP of a 3.07 ERA from 2013-15, but missed essentially all of 2016 with a shoulder injury that eventually gave way to thoracic outlet syndrome surgery and led to his being non-tendered by the Padres. He’ll latch on somewhere and remain on the radar as he works his way back, but sometimes guys just get squeezed out and collectively forget about them.

It isn’t always due to injury, either. Poor performance, a dimmed prospect star, or just a lack of prospect status in the first place can all push a guy to the side in the crowded pitching market. Here are four arms you should keep in mind for deeper leagues (more than 10 teams) in 2017:

Homer Bailey | Reds

Bailey has essentially missed two seasons to Tommy John surgery and the subsequent recovery. It came almost directly on the heels of him signing a 6-year, $105 million dollar extension, too. He has three guaranteed years left at $63 mil plus a $25 million dollar option for 2020 which seems like a pipedream now and is much more likely to result in the $5 million dollar buyout.

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