Author Archive: Paul Sporer

1/19/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

 Leading Off: Question of the Day (1:20)

• Slotting Sluggers: Are there spots for the remaining power bats? [Eno’s piece]

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Dan Straily traded to MIA (20:00)
• Neftali Feliz to MIL (29:50)
• Breaking news in the show: Mark Trumbo back to BAL (1:16:47)

Strategy Section: Team-by-Team Breakdowns

• Boston Red Sox
  • Where does Andrew Benintendi bat? (37:15)
  • How does Rick Porcello follow up the Cy season? (41:13)
  • Is there anything left for Pablo Sandoval? (55:15)
  • Favorite Target: Hanley Ramirez (1:05:50)
  • Stayaway: Porcello (1:08:15)
  • Off-the-Radar: Drew Pomeranz, Tyler Thornburg (1:09:50)
  • Impact Prospects: Rafael Devers (1:13:00)

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As we continue our tour of the NFBC average draft data by position, I want to reiterate something I may have been unclear about early on: this isn’t a ranking list and as such, not every player will be mentioned. Additionally, every position header after these intros is a link to the ADP data of said position.

Previous Editions:

• C/1B
• 2B/SS
• 3B

OUTFIELD

I have to go two parts on outfield, it’s too robust. I’ll go first 50 today and then the rest in another piece.

• For someone reason Mike Trout (pick 1) has a max pick of 2, meaning he was not taken first in a draft.
• You are trying way too hard if you’re taking any hitter but Trout at #1. I can listen to the Kershaw #1 camp, especially since we’re not going into the season thinking there are upwards of 20 aces like last year.

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There is a palpable unreliability to ADP data that we usually forget about until it punches us in the face three rounds into every draft. This has pushed me toward a “get your guys” tactic that I’ve been employing for a few years now. It’s not new, I didn’t make it up, but I used to get hung up on taking a guy “too early” because ADP says he’s a 10th rounder. Until one day I told myself, “hey dummy, you do realize the A in ADP stands for average, right?” I’m very rude to myself it seems.

It was then I started to look more at the highest a player has gone just to get a feel for where the most aggressive believers are on a player. By the way, this isn’t to say Min Pick (as it’s titled on the NFBC data) is a perfect guide, either. It’s the outlier, but it prepares you for what could happen in your draft. In short, a reach or a bargain really varies between the fantasy players. My reach is your bargain and vice versa… well, assuming I didn’t have perfect rankings, but theoretically you could deem one of my bargains a reach.

Just get your guys. Be reasonable, but get the guys that you want. You did the research, you have players you think will greatly outdo expectations, so lock them in. Again, being reasonable is the key part here. This means going a round or two higher within the top 150 picks and then you can stretch it to 2-4 rounds in the double-digit rounds.

I’m only looking at third base today because outfield is going to be a biggie and pairing the two would’ve been a bit much. I’ll go deep here to make up for doing just one position.

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1/16/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Jose Bautista re-signs (1:30)
• Michael Saunders to PHI (6:16)
• Carlos Rodon v. James Paxton (9:50)
• Jason’s thoughts on Drew Smyly (15:16)

Mailbag!

• Email from Eric (18:15)
• Email from Cooper (20:40)

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The chat was a long one today! Enjoy the transcript below:

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1/12/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

 Leading Off: Question of the Day (2:50)

• Dodgers at impasse for Brian Dozier; Will he be dealt this winter?

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Jarrod Dyson/Nate Karns SEA-KC trade (6:50)
• Seth Smith to BAL (27:00)
• Mallex Smith traded to SEA (31:50)
• Drew Smyly traded to SEA; Smith to TB (36:20)
• Trevor Plouffe & Santiago Casilla to OAK (43:30)

Mailbag!

• Email from Jon re: identifying legitimacy of breakouts (52:20)

Strategy Section: Team-by-Team Breakdowns

• New York Yankees (1:00:00)
  • Lineup
  • Rotation
  • Bullpen
  • Favorite Target: Gregory Bird
  • Stayaways: Aaron Judge, Michael Pineda
  • Off-the-Radar: Matt Holliday
  • Impact Prospect(s): Gleyber Torres

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Welcome to the first episode of the written mailbag! I’m feeling it out, seeing what works and what doesn’t. Ideally I’m going for questions that have broad-use strategies or ask about specific players so my answers are applicable for many instead of just one. The email to reach us is sleeperpod@gmail.com. Some will be better suited for the pod episodes (I’ve done one so far, but more are coming), others for here, and others still are best just answered by me directly to you.

Let me know what you think about this format and keep in mind, it’s not set in stone to be like this. I’m always answering as many questions as I can on Twitter, and in-season I think I’ll have some set time(s) each week where I’ll rapid-fire answer questions.

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From Eddy: Who is your favorite sleeper pitcher and batter heading into the 2017 offseason? How come?

I’m not purposely picking two from the same team, but I’m going with Ryon Healy and Jharel Cotton, both Oakland Athletics. I think Healy will remain my favorite throughout winter, but Cotton could be usurped as I do my deep-dive research.

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I love pouring over ADP data in the dead of winter to see how the next season’s market is shaping up. I didn’t touch on this in the first base/catcher review last time out, but I should mention that ADP is merely a guide and a partially blind one at that. It only takes one other person in your league to throw everything off.

This is where knowing your league is very important because if you know that most of the league takes their cues from ADP, it can be especially helpful. But if you play with a group of folks who march to their own drum – and it doesn’t even have to be the whole league, it can be just 2-3 people – then you’re getting very general information from it at best.

Anyway, I just wanted to make that clear before continuing this series. If anything, this is a jumping off point to give some thoughts on a handful of players at every position. We all know that this is a living, breathing market that is in its infancy for the 2017 season. Enough preamble, let’s get into the middle infield.

Previously: 1B/C

SECOND BASE (click through for ADP data)

• Jose Altuve (pick 4) has a remarkably narrow spread early on with a minimum pick of 3 and maximum of 7. He will go 2nd overall in some drafts by the end of draft season, too.

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Can you feel it? Baseball is inching closer and closer. I realize the country was just punished with devastatingly low temperatures almost everywhere (it was in the 20s here in Texas), but STATS recently released the early NFBC average draft data to keep us warm. You better believe I’ve got some thoughts, but I can’t fit them all in one piece, so I’ll cover two positions per and knock this out throughout the week.

CATCHER

• It’s basically Buster Posey (pick 35), Gary Sanchez (47), and Jonathan Lucroy (50), then everyone else. Even an ailing Posey finished second to only Lucroy among catchers last year.
• I want to preach caution on Sanchez, but he was so otherworldly, even accounting for the small sample. There just aren’t any comparisons. The only other catchers to put up a 150 or better OPS+ in their rookie seasons were Carlton Fisk and Mike Piazza and they both did it for way more than Sanchez’s 229 PA.

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The chat transcript is below. It was a good one!

If you didn’t get your question answered, please bring it back next week or hit me up on Twitter (@sporer).

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