Author Archive: Paul Sporer

Chat transcript is below!

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The Rule 5 Draft Thursday morning essentially marks the end of the Winter Meetings and this year’s iteration did not disappoint. We’ve got three more huge moves to look at today.

Remember, you can follow the Hot Stove Implications tag for all of the pieces throughout the winter as Jeff Zimmerman and I will keep you up to date on the market.

Royals trade Wade Davis to Cubs for Jorge Soler

This return for Davis might feel light after what we saw elite relievers net during the deadline, but I definitely think the offseason/in-season dynamic plays a role and we also saw Davis suffer two DL stints with forearm and flexor strains. He saw his strikeout rate and velocity drop while his walk rate, ERA, and WHIP all went up, though I will note his swinging strike rate jumped up a tick and a half to 13%.

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12/8/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

 Leading Off: Question of the Day (6:40)

• What will the Dodgers do if they don’t re-sign Kenley Jansen?

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Chris Sale trade to BOS (20:30)
• Adam Eaton trade to WAS (32:40)
• Aroldis Chapman to NYY (47:00)
• Wade Davis trade to CHC (56:00)
• Mark Melancon to SF (1:09:25)
• Joaquin Benoit to PHI (1:12:30)
• Fernando Rodney to ARI (1:15:50)
• Carlos Gomez to TEX (1:20:30)
• Ian Desmond to COL (1:25:00)
• Wilson Ramos to TB (1:31:00)

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12/7/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

Guest Details: Paul Kastava, Rotographs Contributor (Twitter linked above)

Guest Rundown:

• Key Closers (5:45)
  • Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, Greg Holland
• Key 1B (37:00)
  • Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, Mike Napoli, and recently non-tendered Chris Carter
• Key OFs (1:09:20)
  • Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez, Ian Desmond, Jose Bautista
• Key Cs (1:33:30)
  • Matt Wieters, Wilson Ramos, and recently non-tendered Welington Castillo

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12/6/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

Guest Details: Rob Silver – winner of the 2016 NFBC Main Event

Guest Rundown: We discuss Rob’s prep prior to the 2016 draft, the draft itself, and then the lessons he learned from the six-month grind that resulted in his win.

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We are cooking now!! The Winter Meetings often kick the Hot Stove into high gear and even with a light free agent market, we are officially on fire. It became obvious over the summer that the trades were going to drive this market and that’s coming to fruition with heavy rumors that include superstars and then a huge blockbuster today that likely won’t be topped the rest of the way even if some of those other starts move.

Remember, you can follow the Hot Stove Implications tag for all of the pieces throughout the winter as Jeff Zimmerman and I will keep you up to date on the market.

White Sox trade Chris Sale to Red Sox for Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe, and Victor Diaz

The Red Sox scooped an ace lefty for the second straight offseason and this one might be even better – which is saying something because David Price is awesome (yes, even after his wonky debut season in Boston). Sale can succeed anywhere so I’m not sure park factors and stuff like that is going to move the needle much one way or another.

It’s worth noting that his overall home run park factor improves in Fenway, but he might not get full benefit of it because the gains are mostly against lefties, who he already absolutely suffocates. He did allow five homers to lefties this past season, after allowing just three in his career prior to 2016. Bullpen and lineup support improves in Boston, too, and could aid Sale to setting a new career-high in wins (17, twice).

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12/5/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

 Leading Off: Question of the Day (4:20)

• Is Chris Carter going to wind up in TB?

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Carlos Beltran to HOU (8:30)
• Matt Holliday to NYY (14:30)
• Mark Melancon to SF (17:00)
• Rich Hill back to LAD (24:20)
• Steve Pearce to TOR (28:30)
• Joaquin Benoit to PHI (32:50)
• Jaime Garcia traded to ATL (37:30)

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12/3/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

Email Questions

• J.A. Happ, Chris Tillman, Jose Ramirez, Ender Inciarte from David
• Extensions, Ryan Braun, Travis Jankowski from Brad
• David Peralta from Willie
• Tyler Skaggs from Brian

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Chat transcript found below!

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When looking for breakout hitters, outfield is usually a great place to start. Volume alone gives it an edge over the other positions, but there’s also the fact that a lot of the best athletes play out there and can offer a dynamic set of fantasy numbers. Sleepers don’t exist as they used to anymore, we all know that. Before the internet age, you could legitimately know of some players that the rest of your leaguemates were oblivious to and scoop them up late. Nowadays, no player is truly hidden – or asleep, but that doesn’t mean you can’t get bargains in the draft.

Let’s not get hung up on the term “sleeper” and instead focus on mining some surplus value in the draft. I look at them on levels: mid-rounder, late-rounder, and flyer. I loosely use the following guidelines for them.

Mid-rounder: picks in the 7th-12th rounds

Late-rounder: picks in the 13th-18th rounds

Flyer: picks from the 19th round on, including reserves

To qualify as a sleeper, I generally see that player as someone who will deliver value about four or more rounds higher than his draft slot. Again, these are loose guidelines, but they give me a general framework for identifying my potential plus value picks. I’ve got an outfielder for all three categories today.

Mid-rounder: Marcell Ozuna | Marlins

Ozuna returned to his 2014 level after a rough 2015 that included a demotion, but that’s not quite as impressive when you consider the surge in offense across the league. In fact, his .773 OPS was a point higher than ’14, but his wRC+ was 11 points lower at 105. Credit him for rebounding from ’15, but there’s a level of disappointment to Ozuna’s season because it looked like he was going to breakthrough and have that big season some have seen coming for him (including yours truly).

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