Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – December 16th, 2016

Paul Sporer: Hey yall! Gonna be a little tight on time, so let’s get started

Minty: Would you rather trade Puig+ to get Dozier or deLeon+?

Paul Sporer: DeLeon+. I still believe in Puig so I’d rather move the pitching prospect

Jason: Austin Hedges have all star ceiling with the bat? 15/20 home runs?

Paul Sporer: Eek, I don’t think so. His best-case scenario if going Yadi Molina and sucking at the dish for years, but getting so many reps bc of defense that he learns to hit. That’s SUPER BEST CASE.

Jake: What should we expect out of Max Kepler’s sophomore season?

Paul Sporer: 22-10-.265 or so

Jason: What kinda numbers could Blake Swihart put up if given 500+ at bats?

Paul Sporer: Fantasy baseball jumped off that train quickly, but he’s still just 25. I could see .275-18-8 in that kind of PT

Jason: Does Eric Hosmer ever put it all together and break out hitting .300 with 30 home runs?

Paul Sporer: That seems lofty at this point, he hasn’t popped .300 since ’13 as the added pwr seems to be coming at the cost of his AVG

Eric: Do you have any NL sleepers or guys you are targeting?

Paul Sporer: Andrew Toles, Kyle Barraclough, Addison Reed (though his price will rise when Familia gets his suspension), Tom Murphy (despite being a fake player… inside joke from podcast)

Jason: Jon Gray or Alex Reyes and why?

Paul Sporer: Gray. He’s further along and while Coors is always a hurdle, I think he’s showing that he has a plan to adapt there and survive

Sulzer: Side A gets Lackey and Chris Davis, side B gets Belt and Quintana. Points league. Thoughts? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Side B. Lackey just keeps going, but he’s 38 and I just don’t want to be holding that hot potato. I’m so over Chris Davis, I can’t time him at all. And unless he’s hitting .260+, his power just isn’t special after last year’s HR surge

Kyle: Does Cashner have any chance at a rebound in Texas this year?

Paul Sporer: Sure, there’s always a chance, but it’s low. I’d say 20% tops.

JoeyReno: How high do you have Cotton ranked? Who are some of his neighbors on your list?

Paul Sporer: Top 70 right now. That’s very preliminary, he’s someone I really like, but I need to dive further before I boost him too much. Other guys around him include Finnegan, Conley, and Eickhoff

Paul Sporer: and teammate Manaea

Sulzer: Any comps for Brock Stewart in 2017? Beyond?

Paul Sporer: Eno has hinted at some Stewart love http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-change-mid-week-pitching-streamers/ – I don’t have any comps right now, but strong 3 pitch mix with added velo and some swing-and-miss looks appealing. That LAD rotation is very shaky health-wise so I think he’ll get a chance

Moltar: A lot of my keeper options don’t seem to have a lot of separation in my mind. For a 12tm h2h points, which 2 out of G Sanchez, Bregman, Dahl, Fulmer, and Stroman do you like? All are at or near the minimum keeper salary, and pitchers go for well more at auction than hitters do. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I think I go Sanchez and Dahl. You’re right about the relative proximity, but it was still a kind of easy decision for me between them even with the factors you mention re: pitching prices

Jack law: 20 team, keep 12. 9 solid bats. Going to keep Arrieta and 2 or 3 of Liriano, Smyly, and Pineda? Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Oh man, those are some infuriating arms. I think I’d Liriano and… ughhhhhh, Pineda. While I’m fully skeptical that Pineda will live up to his gaudy base skills, I can’t really justify Smyly over him as he Smyly doesn’t really do anything better than Pineda

Otis Redding: What can we expect from Keon Broxton? Can he cut down on K% and improve AVG?

Paul Sporer: It seems unlikely that he will drastically cut it barring a complete overhaul of his approach bc he’s always had a large swing-and-miss contingent to his game. That said, he could still go 15-40 which would be enough to overcome a .245 AVG

Zigs: Would you rather have a $40 Donaldson in Ottoneu or would you rather combo J Turner and Healy for a combined $5?

Paul Sporer: I think I’d rather take combo. I know it’s usually best to go for most star power, but Turner is really good and I love Healy. The savings are just too much to pass

Doug: Please rank the following long term: J. De Leon, R. Lopez, J. Cotton, R. Gsellman

Paul Sporer: Cotton, Lopez, De Leon, Gsellman

Will: Can Jon Gray overcome Coors field to the tune of 3.50ERA and 200ks a year?

Paul Sporer: Yes, that’s definitely in play IMO. Might linger around 4.00 at home, but then low-3.00s on the road to make up for it.

keeper thoughts: Paul – I need some help with my keepers and am wondering what order you’d put these guys in. Any additional thoughts would be great as well. Machado, Yelich, Bregman, Braun, Stanton, Sano, W Myers, J Upton, R Hill, J Urias. Need to keep only 6. THANKS!

Paul Sporer: Machado, Yelly, Braun, Myers, Stanton (Sano is a lesser Stanton right now so I can’t really justify him), and J Up … can’t justify the arms w/these bats available. I could get behind Bregman over Upton if you wanted some youth, but I like 35-10 from J Up and I think he’ll hit closer to .260 in ’17 after finishing strong

Ed: Will Trea Turner end up as a top-3 SS by the end of 2017?

Paul Sporer: It’s very possible. I ranked him 2 at 2B. SS has some depth for sure, but his incredible speed could certainly carry him to that height

Donald: For a standard dynasty H2H league, please rank Harper Betts C.Seager and Correa

Paul Sporer: Betts, Harper, Correa, and Seager

WWPS – what would paul say: What do you think of segura in seattle and walker in az this year?

Paul Sporer: Got some thoughts on Segura coming in a piece posting after my chat.

Will: What do you think Matt Harvey does going forward? Should we sell or buy?

Paul Sporer: I’d sell right now. I LOVE Harvey, but I’m scared of thoracic outlet. It doesn’t have a great track record. It’s also a bit new so there aren’t a ton of cases to judge from. I’ll be monitoring him closely in Spring to see if I wanna get back on the train, but for now I’m selling

Lars: Who will be better the next 3 years Duda or Trumbo?

Paul Sporer: Trumbo for me

Zigs: What do you think about Margot. What is a reasonable stat line to expect of him this year?

Paul Sporer: I actually find the projection very fair – http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14712&position=OF There’s obviously some upside, but a realistic projection looks like that Steamer line

Eric: 6×6 with OPS and K/BB as extra cats – what order do you like Rodon, DeSclafani, and Garrett Richards?

Paul Sporer: Rodon, Desca, Richards – just worried about Richards’ health so he’s a little wait-and-see

Matt: Mike Foltynewicz looked pretty impressive down the stretch last year and generally improved across the board. Given his nasty stuff, do you view him as a sleeper in deeper leagues? I don’t feel like he’s getting a ton of love.

Paul Sporer: You’re right that he’s going under the radar and I think he deserves some sleeper love. Great stuff and starting to figure out how to generate whiffs with it. More control than command right now, but still just 25. Legit upside

Bullpen Arm: Did Daniel Norris turn a corner at the end of last year or should discount the September performance because….September?

Paul Sporer: I think we saw nice bits of improvement from Norris. The ERA was already good, but it won’t repeat without lowering that WHIP. Four pitch mix, added swing-and-miss, and still plenty of room to grow

Paul Sporer: Y’all, I’ve only got a couple more. Sorry we couldn’t go longer today, but I have to post my piece and then head up north to babysit my wonderful niece. I’ll go at least 2 hours next week… hold me to it!

BarryBaker: Frances Martes or David Paulino in a 30 mn dynasty pts league?

Paul Sporer: I prefer Paulino. Saw both in Arizona and definitely saw the upside in both, but just came out a little higher on Paulino. I was particularly impressed with his control and command despite his height

Hamilton: What do you make of Michael Conforto going forward?

Paul Sporer: I think he’ll continue to rake righties, but I don’t know if they’re going to give him enough reps vL to let him prove

Moltar: Any top prospects you’d consider drafting in a league without minors slots?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league size. Maybe Moncada

Bullpen Arm: Bette value: Jose Abreu in the 6th round or Tommy Joseph in the 12th round?

Paul Sporer: Abreu. Gotta get Joseph way later to overtake Abreu

Rick : Can you rank the Mets SPs for the upcoming season? Which of them would you try to acquire?

Paul Sporer: Thor, deGrom, Matz, Harvey, Wheeler, Lugo, Gsellman

Paul Sporer: Thor and deGrom are the only 2 I’d be buying in the offseason

Elliott: Would you go with Chris Pratt or Chris Evans as fictional Jett Bandy?

Paul Sporer: Evans for sure. Pratt plays Bruce Maxwell, our hero

Craig: Matt Harvey still a ace?

Paul Sporer: Not until we see his return from thoracic outlet

Alex: Do we see a 2016 Verlander or a 2015 Verlander this year?

Paul Sporer: 2015 wasn’t that far off ’16 when you lop off his first 6-7 starts as he was returning from the triceps injury. Unless he gets hurt, I expect him to stay great

Paul Sporer: Please bring these questions back next week. Lots of good ones, but I must go

Paul Sporer: Thank y’all for coming out. Next week, I’ll probably do Wed or Thur and we’ll go way longer.

Pipater: well do you have Strasburg ranked this year?

Paul Sporer: 11th right now

Paul Sporer: OK bye for real!