Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – January 6th, 2017

The chat transcript is below. It was a good one!

If you didn’t get your question answered, please bring it back next week or hit me up on Twitter (@sporer).

2:03
Paul Sporer: Happy 2017, y’all!! We’re back chatting. It’s freezing here (literally), but baseball is inching closer and closer! (that video was weird… my bad)

2:04
Greg: Hey Paul, who should be my last keeper? Jake Arrieta (3rd round), Michael Fulmer (25th round), Carlos Carrasco (4th round), Jonathan Lucroy (3rd round), Robinson Cano (1st round).

2:05
Paul Sporer: I don’t think I can go 1st round w/Cano or 3rd w/LuCroy so I’m looking at the arms. Love Arrieta and Carrasco, but they aren’t 21 and 22 rounds better than Fulmer, IMO, so I’d go with him

2:05
Ben: is Justin Upton a good buy-low candidate?

2:07
Paul Sporer: Ya he got back on track late in ’16 and essentially reached his counting numbers. I think he’ll do the same in ’17 with his batting average back up around .260-.270

2:07
Paul Sporer: That Starboy album is staying in heavy rotation for me right now

2:08
Derek: Paul, two questions, 4 on 4 or 3 on 3 OT instead of shootout? Keep for the next 3 years, Stanton or Miggy?

2:08
Paul Sporer: I’d have taken more 5 on 5 w/that World Juniors last night, but 4 on 4 is pretty lit, too. I’m reluctant to project too far out with either. Miggy for age and Stanton for continued health issues, but between the 2 for ’17, I’m still going Miggy.

2:09
robert: Paul, how does JP Crawford compare to Correa, Seager, Machado, Lindor, Bogaerts and Russell (and any other young SS I may have missed)? Does he make 300 PAs this year?

2:18
Paul Sporer: I think he could Lindor-esque where his bat hasn’t been EXCELLENT results-wise in the minors and so he gets tabbed as a defensive prospect. It ends up turning into a tag of “defense-only” instead of “defense-first”. He’ll reach 300 PA if he improves during his second tour of Triple-A.

2:18
IPoopTooMuch: My coworker recently told me that there isn’t much of a difference between Hector Santiago and Danny Salazar (5×5 AL only). What would you say to him?

2:19
Paul Sporer: LOL, I’d love to hear him try and defend that. I just don’t see it.

2:20
Paul: What’s your expectation for playing time for AJ Reed and Yulieski Gurriel? Could see a lot of scenarios between Reed at 1B and Gurriel in OF, Gurriel at 1B and Reed in minors, Gurriel being utility guy. What say you?

2:21
Paul Sporer: I think the Gurriel 1B/Reed minors scenario is how we start the season. Now, injuries happen which can muddle everything, but I think it’d take that to really get Reed in there on any sort of full-time basis. I think Gurriel is a sneaktip solid late-round bat

2:21
Bob: Who are some young guys you expect to play a lot better in 2017 than they did in 2016?

2:22
Paul Sporer:


Paul Sporer
@sporer
6 Jan 2017
2:22
Mike: Two part Ottoneu (points league) question. 1) I swapped my $29 Schwarber for his $28 Correa and $21 Keuchel. Even already having Corey Seager on my team, would you consider this a positive move for my team? 2) At $21, it’s okay here to drop Keuchel and try to snag him at a lower price in the auction?

2:23
Paul Sporer: I like what you’ve done here. Correa cheaper than Schwarber is very nice. And yes, kick Keuchel back and see if you can get him in the mid-teens instead

2:23
Pat: Hey Paul! In an OBP keep forever league should I keep Sano, Myers or Villar?

2:24
Paul Sporer: I’m gonna go Villar here. He’s always had the ability to take a walk, so even if he’s back toward a .270ish AVG, his OBP should still be .330+ with some punch and tons of speed

2:25

Ken M: F*** Kill Marry

Yovani, Ubaldo, Liriano

2:26
Paul Sporer: omg

2:26
Paul Sporer: transferring it to baseball, that’d be spot-start, never roster, and hold so Gallardo, Ubaldo, Liriano

2:27
Me: I’m in an 11-team $260 AL-only where around 20 of the top 25 pitchers will be kept going into the auction. I happen to own Kluber, Verlander and Fulmer for a grand total of $65. It’s more than I typically like to spend on starting pitching, yet I’m almost guaranteed to have the best pitching going into the season, possibly by a fair amount. Do I enjoy this competitive edge, sit back and get ready for opening day, or should I consider trading one of the three arms to exploit another team’s desperation?

2:28
Paul Sporer: I like this a lot. I’m usually averse to keeping too much pitching bc of its inherent risk, but league dynamics are important and you’ve outlined a scenario where I’d gladly keep all three. Now if a trade opens up to really help the squad, you entertain it, but Plan A is keeping them, IMO

2:28
Larry: How are you handling Michael Fulmer in keeper leagues? Does he have top-10 potential in fantasy, or are we talking about someone more likely to settle into the 15-30 range in fantasy SP rankings in the future?

2:30
Paul Sporer: Much more 25-40 range right now, as opposed to top 10. He could spike some top 10 seasons, but he was 29th on ESPN’s Player Rater after this excellent season and I’m not sure I’d project him to get a lot better this year. I think the skills will remain firm, w/an ERA more in the 3.30-3.60 range

2:30
Ryan: No SP guide this year? Paul! What do we get for beating you last year?

2:30
Paul Sporer: Oh man, I totally forgot about that. Hit me on twitter.

2:30
Tony: How much would you pay for Khris Davis in an 10-team $260 AL-only league?

2:33
Paul Sporer: like $24ish?

2:33
Zach: Hey Paul!

2:33
Paul Sporer: Hey Zach!

2:33
Brad: Good article by Brad Johnson about Dahl but I don’t see a minors stint to start season is happening? What do you think? Thanks.

2:34
Paul Sporer: It was worth at least mentioning so we’re not gobsmacked if it does happen, but I agree that it’s an unlikely scenario, IMO. I still love Dahl out in Coors.

2:34
JayB: Hi Paul, I’m in a deep 12-team H2H “keep forever” league. Which side would you want for now and the future?

2:34
JayB: 12 team H2H dynasty trade – Side A trades Hanley – Side B trades Brantley+Zobrist….which side do you want and why? IF, Brantley comes back healthy does that change your mind?

2:35
Paul Sporer: If Brantley comes back health, it’s easily that side, but that’s a major concern right now which certainly balances the scales on this one. I’m open to taking the risk w/the 2 guys, but I think I’d PREFER Hanley by a tick or two as of this moment

2:35
Sheila: Can you name some American relievers you currently like as sleepers for future saves in 2017?

2:37
iNFINITE WISDOM: Bryant (3rd) or Correa (24th Rd) for keeper. 10 team pts league w/2 keeper limit and snake draft…

2:38
Paul Sporer: It’s gotta be Correa at that difference. Hell, if it was Bryant 3rd and Correa 4th, it’d be close, so this kind of disparity easily favors Correa

2:38
Zach: Hey Paul! What are your thoughts on Nomar Mazara? Top 30 OF?

2:43
Paul Sporer: Top 30 is perfect world breakout scenario

2:44
Paul Sporer: He needs to greatly improve v. LH, but I love seeing a 21-year old hold his own for 568 PA in the majors. I’m definitely investing.

2:44
iNFINITE WISDOM: Is Moncada worth a 15th rd pickup in a 10 team pts. league?

2:52
Paul Sporer: Ehhhhhhh

2:52
Paul Sporer: Sorry, had to take Charlotte for a moment

2:56
Paul Sporer: I personally wouldn’t be looking to draft him in a 10-teamer

2:56
Chaco Chicken: How do you feel about Garrett Richards? Can he produce with torn/partially torn ucl like Masahiro or too risky to gamble with?

3:00
Paul Sporer: I think he can, yes. I think he will be priced to buy, too

3:01
neil: Hi Paul, is Andrew Mccutchen a good candidate for a bounce back in 2017?

3:03
Paul Sporer: I do, yes. I’m Team 2 and drafted him in the 4th round: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-406-a-lockout/

3:06
Clay Bucholz: Will I be any good this year?

3:08
Paul Sporer: No.

3:10
Michael: Deep dynasty league, debating between Jorge Ona and Fernando Tatis Jr in first year player draft. Who do you prefer, and roughly where would you slot these guys in compared to some of the names taken in this year’s Rule 4 draft?

3:10
Paul Sporer: Hmmm, I’d go Tatis I think

3:10
Sizors: Paul is Love, Paul is Life =]

3:11
Paul Sporer: Siz!!

3:12
robert: What are your thoughts on Giancarlo Stanton in a dynasty? Decent buy-low? Would have to buy at $50 in Ottoneu ($400 budget).

3:13
Paul Sporer: That doesn’t feel like too much of a buy low, though. I have a hard time fully quitting Stanton, but I’m done trying to predict the full season 50 HR season

3:17
AKA22: Are you excited about the sleeper potential of Peraza or Schebler in Cinci?

3:18
Paul Sporer: Peraza a bit just bc game-changing speed can be exciting, though I don’t love SB-only kinds of guys. Even a breakout from Schebler is probably a slightly lesser Adam Duvall so I’m not TOO hyped on that

3:18
Happy New Year!: People seem to have lost their minds in my AL-only $260 keeper league, as a few GMs have already stated they will drop at least $50 to secure the services of Jose Altuve. I have had Altuve on my team for the last three years and won twice largely in part, but I can’t actually justify dropping $50 on him, can I?

3:20
Paul Sporer: I can totally see him getting to $50 after inflation in an AL-only. He’s popping $40+ valuations in mixed leagues, so pushing $50 in single leagues is viable. Some folks don’t ever want to push that high and prefer to spread the risk, but I think Altuve, Trout, and Betts will all be pushing that mark in keeper AL-onlys

3:21
NL only keepers: Should I keep 1 or both of Shark and Jon Gray at $15 in $260 auction. For reference Cole and Arietta will be the top 2 pitchers available at the draft and probably get close to $25.

3:25
Paul Sporer: If SP is going to be scarce in the market, both are viable at $15. There’s no a huge amount of profit to be mined at that price, but sometimes you lock down the innings at cost just to have them.

3:25
Brian: Expectations for gsellman this year?

3:27
Paul Sporer: He won’t be in the rotation to start the season so I don’t see a ton of work coming. There is obviously some health concern in the rotation, but I think Lugo is first to fill-in so Gsellman needs two spots to open. I’d say 60ish IP of upper-3.00s ERA

3:28
The late, great Abraham Lincoln: Clayton Kershaw, assuming no bad health news through spring training, should be the ______ player off the draft board this year

3:28
Paul Sporer: 6th after Trout, Betts, Arenado, Altuve, and Bryant

3:28
Pomeranz: In an NL auction, would you keep either Strasburg or Degrom at $34?

3:30
Paul Sporer: Depends on inflation, but probably not. I LOVE Stras, but it’s hard to bet on more than 150 IP at this point. deGrom is still a total stud, but the elbow is worrisome.

3:31
Biscuit: Any chance Hernan Perez manages to repeat 2016 or was that the absolute peak?

3:32
Paul Sporer: I’d be REALLY surprised. it’s not like his skills were even that good for the 13 HR/34 SB season. I’m fading him even at a cheap price

3:32
Jamie: I know he didn’t make your leap column, do you think this is could be the year the Trevor Bauer makes a leap and puts together a full year of good pitching?

3:32
Paul Sporer: Maybe, but we’ve got about 500 IP of more or less the same guy. I don’t see a whole lot changing.

3:33
Biscuit: Who finishes with higher WAR this year, JQ or Alex Reyes?

3:33
Paul Sporer: JQ… JQ… why am I failing… Oh Jose Quintana!! I’d say him

3:33
Austin Meadow’s Ass: lamb or stanton for the next 3 years?

3:33
Paul Sporer: That’s closer than some may realize, but I’m still leaning Stanton

3:33
J: Paul, why won’t the Blue Jays sign Bautista? They need each other right?

3:33
Paul Sporer: I think they will eventually

3:34
Sulzer: Hey Paul, what are your thoughts on Baez this year? Does he play daily?

3:34
Paul Sporer: I think so, yes. I think it’ll still be volatile, there’s still a lot of swing and miss in his game. .260/20/15

3:34
Saul: Who do you like better for 2017: Murphy or Odor (plus $5 in the auction)

3:34
Paul Sporer: Murphy

3:34
Jamie: Can Hellickson have a similar season to last year? Is he a solid 4-5 pitcher in an NL Only?

3:35
Paul Sporer: Ya he can repeat. I’d be OK with him as my NL Only #5

3:35
PK: For my last keeper (would be round 6): Braun or Wil Myers (Points lg)?

3:35
Paul Sporer: Myers

3:35
Teddy: If you had to decide between Freddie Freeman (10th round) and JD Martinez (20th round) as your utility spot, which would you rather have?

3:36
Paul Sporer: JD. The round disparity is too large to ignore. Plus, I’m not even sure Freeman is automatically a lot better than JD in the first place

3:36
Ed: RTJ 3? You enjoying as much as I am?

3:36
Paul Sporer: I am, yes. I’ve given it a couple spins and plan to keep listening this weekend

3:36
Peter: I’m in a league that plays LF/CF/RF as separate OF spots. I know it’s a weird quirk, but where does Benintendi set up in the LF rankings of the future? Any obvious candidates you’d rather have than him?

3:37
Paul Sporer: I think it’s a growing quirk. I like Beni in this format bc LF is a bit scarce. I’m not sure exactly where I’d rank him, but he has the green up arrow next to his name for sure.

3:37
Thomas: How much do you like David Dahl this year? Know it is hard to predict his playing time with the Rockies OF situation unsettled (and Rockies decision making being … uh … opaque), but if he gets a shot to play every day, what chance do you give him to continue his hot numbers from last year? (Seemed like he was overachieving in AVG given his K% and SwStr%)

3:38
Paul Sporer: Love him, actually. Unlikely to repeat a .404 BABIP, but he’s in the right place to have an overachieving AVG despite some swing and miss

3:38
YKnotDisco?!: Is JD Drew a good example of a overhyped prospect who didn’t live up to initial expectations but when all was said and done, he turned out to be very underrated?

3:38
Paul Sporer: For sure. He had a lot of good seasons and too many have a perception that he just wasn’t that good. The bottom line was still a very strong 128 wRC+

3:39
Stonewall: Please rank these keepers all prices equal ops and qs the extra categories….Kepler….Domingo Santana….joc….keirmaier….cotton….Paxton

3:39
Paul Sporer: Joc, Paxton, Kiermaier, Kepler, Cotton, Domingo

3:39
Noah: Anyone taking a chance on Brett Anderson?

3:39
Paul Sporer: I’m all set

3:39
Dave: Best SS keeper: Matt Duffy, Didi Gregorious or Jose Reyes?

3:39
Paul Sporer: Gregorius

3:39
Eric: What do you think about Desclafani? Is he a good mid-rotation guy or more of a back-end fantasy starter?

3:40
Paul Sporer: He’s building on something. Almost made the Leap Year column. I wouldn’t be surprised by a full season of 3.50/1.25

3:40
McStreamy: Got offered Profar, Joc Peterson and two draft picks that could turn into Chance Sisco or Matt chapman for David Dahl in a pts dynasty, thoughts?

3:42
Paul Sporer: As much as I love Dahl, I think this is a good offer. I still have hope for Profar (he’s only 24) and I’ve always been a Pederson guy. It’s not unreasonable to envision Pederson matching Dahl minus some AVG points, so go ahead and take the deal

3:42
Sulzer: In a keeper/dynasty points lg, swap Strasburg for trea turner? Kershaw is my #1.

3:42
Paul Sporer: Yes

3:42
Martin: Pick four keepers from this list. Machado, MadBum, Springer, Kluber, Myers, Desmond

3:43
Paul Sporer: Would love to find a way to finagle Desmond in Coors onto the list, but I just can’t: MM, Springer, Kluber, Madbum

3:43
Dumpster Fiers: Haven’t been able to listen to the podcast yet. What were the thoughts on Ty Blach?

3:44
Paul Sporer: Eno spoke well of him as a backend IP-eater type. Said he could push Cain out if Cain keeps doing what we’ve seen the last couple seasons

3:44
Zach: H2H points keeper league Sano or Dahl? For a 3rd OF spot which Sano likely loses after this year

3:44
Paul Sporer: Dahl

3:44
Dave C: Do you think Trea T will regress much, or is he that good?

3:45
Paul Sporer: I think there will be some regression, yes, but I still think he’s worth a 2nd rd pick. A full season of PA with similar HR/SB totals, a .290 AVG, and tons of runs scored is really nice at SS/OF (he’ll add the SS in-season).

3:45
YKnotDisco?!: RE Co-Worker: If that conversation occurred at place of work, I’d tell my boss he has been drinking on the job. If this happened outside of work (bar or home), I’d take their keys away.

3:45
Paul Sporer: LOLOLOLOLOL. that’s re: someone saying Hector Santiago = Danny Salazar for those who missed earlier

3:46
JayB: 12 team H2H dynasty league. My team is desperately in need of a SS (currently starting B. Miller). I have a surplus of SPs. I’m targeting Jean Segura. The other owner wants Cueto. I’m offering Hendricks. Should I stand my ground or would you move Cueto for Segura (I would ask for a smaller piece to come back too)??

3:46
Paul Sporer: I’d stand my ground, though I also wouldn’t be going too hard after Segura personally. I know there was some skills growth, but getting half his games in Arizona really helped, too

3:46
Paul Sporer: Safeco isn’t the pitcher’s haven it used to be, but it’s a far cry from Chase Field, too

3:49
Saul: In a keep forever league, who, besides Trout, do you have above Harper?

3:49
Paul Sporer: If our focus is longer term, no one really. For ’17 specifically, Betts, Arenado, and Altuve at most

3:50
Pete: In a 16-team auction league, is spending 1/3 of your budget on Trout smart or reckless?

3:50
Paul Sporer: I think it’s excessive. What can you really surround him with at that point? And heaven forbid anything happens to him

3:50
Biscuit: What are your expectations for Kuhl and Paulino this year? Open the year in the back end of their rotations?

3:51
Paul Sporer: Paulino? Why am I blanking again? David Paulino in HOU? I don’t think he starts with a job. As for Kuhl, I’m tepid on him, but I think part of that is lack of knowledge. I’m going to make it a point to watch some of him in the near future and get a better feel

3:51
Paul Sporer: Near future likely being this weekend

3:52
Paul Sporer: I’ll keep going a bit longer, folks, but I gotta get a little something to eat first. 5 minute break to hit the kitchen

3:52
Robert Person : Beter closer ’17: Neris or Ottavino?

3:52
Paul Sporer: Ottavino bc I think Benoit opens w/that job in Philly and I can see him keeping it

3:52
Paul Sporer: Ok now the break starts

4:07
Brian: Does Alec reyes start all year? What #s you see him putting up? Can he be an ace down the road?

4:09
Paul Sporer: He’s only 22 and pitched 111 IP last yr, so I don’t see a full season in the rotation. He can be an ace down the road, but 3-4 years down the road. I think there’ll be flashes of brilliance this yr, but I’d be careful not to overrate

4:10
Guest: Paul, in a 12 team 6 player keeper league 6×6 with OPS / IP & K/9, I am definitely keeping arenado, rizzo and scherzer. I have to then pick 3 of lindor, story, polanco and darvish. I think I have a sense of how to rank them but who of those 4 would be the best to offer in a trade for a draft pick considering overall rank, volatility, age, team building etc.

4:11
Paul Sporer: Lindor would draw the most back in a deal, but he’s also who I’d want to keep most. That said, to pushback on myself a little, I could see trading Lindor and just keeping Story as my SS. Maybe package Lindor/Darvish for a huge piece? I like Polanco, I really do, but I think he’s the odd man out here

4:12
Moltar: Greetings! I have 2 keeper slots open for these players, all at the minimum salary in a 12tm h2h points: G Sanchez, M Fulmer, A Bregman, D Dahl, D Fowler, M Stroman. Leaning towards Sanchez and Fulmer, but Fowler or Bregman at the minimum is gonna be hard to cut loose.

4:13
Paul Sporer: Fulmer is a solid arm, but I think I go hitting here with Sanchez and Dahl. Bregman and Fowler are close, too, but I love Coors and think that’s the separator for Dahl

4:13
Jeff: I understand pitchers are super risky, but who of these guys is the safest bet for where they’ll auction in our league, 3-4 yrs of Scherzer, Kershaw

4:13
Jeff: expected 3-4 yr deals in our auction. How do you rank Kershaw, Scherzer, Sale, and Price over that time?

4:13
Paul Sporer: I think I’d rank them just as you have them listed here

4:13
Jeff: Just wondering what you’re basing your Gsellman playing time info on? Last I remember Alderson said Wheeler was going to pitch in relief and Gsellman would be the 5th starter.

4:16
Paul Sporer: Was going off of Roster Resource which doesn’t have Gsellman in rotation

4:19
Paul Sporer: Couldn’t find anything about Gsellman starting in the rotation on Rotoworld

4:19
Hannah Hochevar: People are already calling Smith for Gallardo the ‘deal of the off-season’ (no one is calling it that): what do you think the O’s outfield looks like? Will Kim play? Thanks!

4:19
Paul Sporer: LOL, deal of the century!!!

4:21
Paul Sporer: I think it’s going to be Kim, Jones, Smith vR

4:21
Pitching staff : You’d rather have Joc over D. Santasna?\

4:22
Paul Sporer: Yes, I would for sure

4:23
Moltar: If Gary Sanchez turns ins a “bad” season, is he still a top 10 catcher given the depth at the position?

4:23
Paul Sporer: Ya, I’d think so. Assuming bad isn’t an injury-shortened effort

4:24
4:25
Paul Sporer: I have them a couple spots apart, it’s really a coinflip. Conley the couple spots ahead, btw

4:25
Millah: In a standard 12 team snake draft, do you keep Andrew Miller in the 10th?

4:26
Paul Sporer: I think I would, yes. I know he might not get many saves, but his ratios, Ks, and even his Ws (I know, unpredictable af, but he gets put in the tough spots where the game is decided) are really valuable

4:26
Mike: Where does Jake Lamb slot in as a 3B keeper? Top 10? 15?

4:28
Paul Sporer: Here are my early 3B ranks: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/third-basemen-rankings-first-run/ Top 15 for sure, but I could see bumping him up a little in keeper bc of the future

4:28
PA: In a 12-team mixed keeper trade, would you want a $30 Kershaw or a set of $23 Votto, $9 Desmond, and $20 Kluber? (would be dropping $10 Dahl and $6 Khris to the free agency pool, then attempt to redraft them).

4:29
Paul Sporer: Kershaw is the best SP, but I think the trio is enough to trade him. You’re still getting incredible star power in return so it’s not just a quality for quantity deal

4:30
Guest: $11 deGrom for $14 D Gordon and minor league (no salary yet) David Dahl. Which side wins?

4:31
Paul Sporer: the Dee/Dahl side

4:31
Paul Sporer: and I’m not even sold Dee Gordon will get back to his pre-suspension ways, but getting the pair for deGrom definitely works

4:31
Chris: Keep JBJ or Odor?

4:36
Paul Sporer: All else equal I assume? I’m a huge JBJ honk and not as high on Odor as others, but I think the age disparity is enough to favor Odor

4:36
Eric: Is Bour a starting 1B in a 12-team league?

4:36
Paul Sporer: No, just a CI

4:36
Moltar: Jarrod Dyson is now a Mariner and Nate Karns is a Royal, any fantasy impact?

4:37
Paul Sporer: For deep leagues. Dyson is who he is. I think Karns could work in KC bc they still have a good bullpen so they can afford to ask him for just 5 IP and avoid that third-time-through

4:37

Moltar: Best Mets 5th starter info I can find, from an ESPN report of Alderson’s press conference on 12/5 “Alderson said the answer may be using some of the Mets’ starting-pitching depth in relief next season, assuming everyone is healthy. Alderson listed Zack Wheeler as a potential reliever, presumably with Robert Gsellman in the rotation. Wheeler has missed the past two seasons while dealing with setbacks from Tommy John surgery, which he underwent in March 2015.”

I guess “presumably” is not exactly a ringing endorsement. Skills wise, do you prefer Gsellman or Lugo?

4:37
Paul Sporer: I like Lugo by a tick, but the 2 aren’t massively different

4:40
Burnsy: 2 quick ones for a dynasty – Cueto vs Duffy/Conforto, and how would you rank the following CIs with ? marks in a dynasty? Longo, Hanley, Frazier

4:40
Paul Sporer: Close, but I still take Cueto. He’s a fantasy ace. I take the CIs in the order you listed em

4:40
Ryon: Where does Healy slot in as a long term 3B keeper?

4:40
Paul Sporer: #1

4:41
Paul Sporer: Kiiiiidddding, but I’ve been sweatin’ Healy all offseason. He’s in that 12-18 range. I like him for sure, not sure he’s a super dynamic keeper, though as there probably isn’t a ton of growth coming

4:41
fresh basil: Think Bedrosian opens the season as closer?

4:42
Paul Sporer: Think it’ll be Street if he’s healthy

4:42
fresh basil: Nice Dyson pickup for the Mariners.

4:42
Paul Sporer: Prefer it for KC, but it’s a fine trade

4:42
Nelson: Viz or JJ more saves in ATL this year?

4:43
Paul Sporer: JJ. He was looking really sharp toward season’s end and I think he can hold the job all year. Sneaktip backend closer that I actually like

4:43
Nelson: Rolen or Thome better HOF chance? (or are both locks?)

4:43
Paul Sporer: Even with the electorate evolving, I think Thome is the more surefire bc of his gaudy HR count, but I do think both are pretty close to locks

4:43
Sonny: Cost is the same keep K Seagar or Sano & Healy?

4:44
Paul Sporer: Ooh that’s tough. I think I need league context. AL? Mixed? Team count?

4:44
Eckstein 123: Is Dyson in Seattle (just traded for Karns) a top 50 OF?

4:45
Paul Sporer: Not sure he’ll play enough for that. If he does finally get 500 PA (337 was a career-high set last yr), his bat probably gets further exposed so he’s an empty rabbit. SBs have value so by raw dollar value he could get there w/the playing time, but if he’s named starter and buzz starts setting in, I could see his price shooting past Rajai Davis, who I’d prefer over Dyson

4:46
joc pederson: seems like you heart me… When will you learn?

4:47
Paul Sporer: I don’t know, you’re a 25-year old with two mid-20s HR counts. I still see some mid-teens SB totals coming, too. the AVG is unlikely to ever really evolve, but Yung Joc is good!

4:48
Bruce: Does Rajai get a slight bump with the trade?

4:48
Paul Sporer: He does after signing in OAK. We discussed him at length on yesterday’s podcast, too!

4:48
Nelson: Does Rondon match Quintana in Fantasy, due to his big advantage in Ks?

4:49
Paul Sporer: If Rodon evolves as I expect (http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-leap-year-al-edition/) then I could see them being close. I’d still lean Q, though

4:49
Bruce: What is “effectively Wild” and why is is trending (in these circles)?

4:50
Paul Sporer: http://bfy.tw/9KGz 😉

4:50
JayB: in a keeper league would you prefer Brantley/Zobrist or Brantley/Matt Moore?

4:50
Paul Sporer: I’m on the Matt Moore train, let’s go that route

4:51
Sonny: I like Spot, Not, Roster for FMK. Fun game

4:51
Paul Sporer: yes!

4:51
Sonny: After Goldy 4 Keepers from: Blackmon, Darvish, Archer, Starlin Marte, K Seagar, Posey?

4:52
Paul Sporer: Blackmon, Marte, Posey, and then one of the pitchers, I lean Yu

4:52
Gern Cranium: Is Diaz a top 10 SS?

4:53
Paul Sporer: Yes, I think so!

4:53
Gern Cranium: Your thoughts on Kyle Hendriks in a dynasty. Worried throwing 88 and with a couple ticks off his fastball he could be Weaver sooner rather than later.

4:54
Paul Sporer: Ya I’m not super geeked on him long-term. He certainly contributes to the weak contact and knows how to lean on the defense, but his margin for error isn’t big

4:54
Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I’m sorry I couldn’t get to all of the questions. Y’all killed it today! I’ll be back next week for sure

4:55
Paul Sporer: Have a good weekend!!

4:55
Paul Sporer: Please bring your questions back next week or hit me up on Twitter if they’re time-sensitive (@sporer)





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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