Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – January 13th, 2017 by Paul Sporer January 13, 2017 The chat was a long one today! Enjoy the transcript below: 2:16 Paul Sporer: It’s Friday the 13th! AHHHHH!!! 2:16 Paul Sporer: Let’s talk some baseball 2:16 Minty: Cotton or Honeywell, this year and then beyond? 2:18 Paul Sporer: Cotton this year for sure. I’m not sure Honeywell will pitch much in the majors this year. He’s only 22 and has peaked at Double-A thus far. TB slow roasts their prospects 2:18 Minty: Do we even see Honeywell in the majors this year because of the way the Rays promote guys? 2:18 Paul Sporer: See, you answered your own question 🙂 2:18 Tom: Would you move Joc Pederson for Jon Gray in a long term keeper? 2:19 Paul Sporer: I would not. I love Gray and think he can overcome Coors, but I’m also a big Joc fan and when it’s close between 2 players, I lean toward the hitter. I still think there is another level to Yung Joc beyond the big power/low AVG we’ve seen thus far 2:19 John: If you were to jot down a list of the likely consensus top 20 SPs for 2017 right now, which of them are you most concerned about going into the season? 2:20 Paul Sporer: We can just use the NFBC ADP for now: http://hosted.stats.com/mlb/adp.asp?pos=SP and it’s Hendricks. I’m known to be down on him compared to the market. It’s not that I think he sucks, but I think he’s at the mercy of balls in play so there is more volatility than I think is being baked into his price 2:20 Jay: 12 team auction mix league with some traditional stats, what’s too much to pay for Trea Turner? 2:23 Paul Sporer: That’s always a tough question because markets vary so much. I personally wouldn’t want to pay much more than low-$30s and even that feels a little crazy typing it out, but he’s a second round pick which is usually around that price point 2:23 Heal the World: Will the acquisition of Plouffe have any negative effect on my man-crush, Ryon Healy? 2:24 Paul Sporer: It could a bit, yes. Eno and I dove in on that and that was the conclusion we came to. It might not even be via playing time, but rather pushing him to DH which on average eats 10% off a statline. Still very excited, but it does factor into the mix 2:28 Tony the Tiger: I was super excited when Michael Fulmer was called up last season. His first few starts were rocky, but I remember marveling at how composed and determined he became after giving up runs to start an inning. I don’t know that I had ever seen that kind of moxie in a rookie before, let alone many players really. Not a question I guess, but would love to hear your feedback. Thanks. 2:31 Paul Sporer: He really took off when he started to trust that changeup more and it started in that TB start. It was so impressive to watch. I think his ability to adjust belied his young age. His ERA could definitely push toward the mid-3.00s if he keeps the same skills and his LOB%/BABIP regress, but I think there’s also a scenario where he adds Ks and offsets some ERA regression 2:32 Martin: Cotton, Luke Weaver or Alex Reyes for 2017. 2:36 Paul Sporer: I think Reyes will be a little rocky given his control issues, but I still have him slight ahead of Cotton right now. That could change after I do more research on both, but just looking at my initial rankings, it’s Reyes, Cotton, and Weaver. Reyes and Cotton are 6 spots apart which is why I gave the disclaimer that it could change. 6 spots is nothin’! 2:36 YKnotDisco?!: Freddy or Jason? 2:38 Paul Sporer: Jason. Freddy’s face is just so jacked 2:38 AKA22: Pick 3 of 5 options for $1 NL Only guys to keep (or 2 to drop i suppose)… Peraza, Desclafani, Schebler, Inciarte, Shawn Kelley. (Story and Freeman will be other ones kept if that matters) 2:40 Paul Sporer: I *feel* like Wash will get someone for closer ahead of Kelley, but if you have a later keeper deadline date and he’s still the guy, then I think he gets a slot. Peraza and Inciarte are the other two! 2:41 A’s fan: Hi Paul. Hope you had a great week. You were kind enough to answer my question last week in regards to the value of Khris Davis in an 11-team $260 AL-only league. You threw out $24 as his value, which ironically enough is exactly how much I can keep him at. To keep him puts me right up against the cap and means I would be cutting bait or trying to deal a $6 Sandoval and $8 McHugh. Which side would you rather keep? Thanks! 2:42 Paul Sporer: Between those two, I’d rather gamble on Pablo at $6. I just don’t think he’s toast at age-30. That bat has some life left, IMO. McHugh is a WYSIWYG guy, which is fine, but you can probably get him around $8 in auction. And if not, spend that money elsewhere on someone with more upside 2:42 Nick: Hey Paul, Keep forever which side do you take? Benintendi + Austin Meadows / Trea Turner 2:45 Paul Sporer: That’s a pretty fair deal. I think I’d lean Turner 2:45 Pops: Where do you see Benintendi batting in the Red Sox lineup on opening day? I don’t want to be too much of a fanboy here, but there are few players I’m more excited to own next season than him right now. 2:50 Paul Sporer: Roster Resource slotted him at #2, but I’d be surprised if he was there from day 1. I feel like it’ll go more like Betts, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Hanley, Bradley, Beni, (Bradley/Beni could flip) Sandoval, Moreland, Leon 2:53 Cronut Burger: You can go into your AL-only keeper league season with a significant competitive advantage in starting pitching, or deal an ace like Verlander or Kluber for a cheaper Lindor. Assuming you currently have no middle infielders being kept, yet care about nothing but winning the title this season, what would you do? 2:54 Paul Sporer: I’d move JV for Lindor. I think still having an ace in Kluber is a nice advantage as there just aren’t that many AL aces. 2 would be nice, but Lindor is worth making the move 2:54 Pablo: I’ve heard it said that it’s a good strategy to punt SB in a H2H league. Do you agree? 2:55 Paul Sporer: It certainly can be viable. Most any strategy CAN win, it’s just a matter of execution. 2:55 Al Bundy: I’m working out the final touches on a trade in one of my keeper leagues. We’re debating on the last piece that will be coming to me, either a few auction dollars or a bunch of free agent dollars for next season. How do you value $1 auction versus $1 free agent, and which would you rather accrue before going into the auction? 2:55 Paul Sporer: I would rather have the FA bucks, tbh. There’s a little more certainty in-season so I think they are more valuable than the auction bucks 2:56 ryan: Where are you drafting James Paxton? Top 25 at year end? Still in sleeper territory? 2:59 Paul Sporer: I’m eyeing him in the teens rounds. I got him in the 16th round of a 15-team mock this week: http://www.couchmanagers.com/mock_drafts/?draftnum=39416 — Top 25 would be an amazing breakout year, but I’m certainly targeting him. He could become what I call a “Wide Awake Sleeper” where he’s on so many lists that he’s no longer a sleeper, but I think even at the high end, he’ll still be a double-digit rounder, which I’m comfortable paying 2:59 Starting Rotation help: (12 team/roto/full keeper) Hey Paul – I need some Hitting help and have a bunch of young pitching I’m thinking about flipping. I have Kershaw as my anchor, but who do you think I should try to move out of: Berrios, Manaea, Snell, Rodon, Joe Ross, Vince Velazquez, Jon Gray. 3:00 Paul Sporer: I’m not sure the market will give you as much for Berrios and Snell right now (but your league may be different). I feel like Gray or VV will draw the most in the open market 3:01 Tom Waits: Closing time: are both Wade Davis and Seung Hwan Oh top 10 closers this year? 3:02 Paul Sporer: I definitely have Oh there and Davis certainly could be with health. There’s just the forearm risk hanging overhead that scares me a little bit 3:04 Larry David: Hey Sporer. I’m torn on this one because I love both players. In a 14tm points keeper league where I already have the positions covered, I have been offered A. Espinoza for my Albies. Pitcher prospects always worry me but I feel like the reward could be bigger with Espinoza. Thanks man. 3:06 Paul Sporer: I think your reasoning is in line, but I don’t think Espinoza’s upside is SO much higher that I’d forego Albies for him. Yes, he could become an ace, but Albies could be a high average speed asset at a tough position to fill. I think I’d stand firm w/Ozzie 3:06 Bautista will be a Blue Jay: At what point does Troy Tulowitzki become undervalued? Based on his early draft position, am I wrong to think he’s shaping up to be a solid draft day target, assuming the trend continues? 3:08 Paul Sporer: I’m with you: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/early-adp-thoughts-second-base-shortstop/ — It’s a little jarring to see him in the 11th, but at the same time I get it. I think he’s worth the gamble, especially if you miss out on the frontline SS. Hell, in the 11th, even a mediocre season is fine, but there’s a chance… a CHANCE… he stays healthy and just shows vintage Tulo for a year 3:08 Minnesota Twinkie: I’m really torn on Byron Buxton right now. Half of me wants to stay clear of him at all costs, and the other half wants to own him in all formats. Where does Paul stand on BB? 3:11 Paul Sporer: I think he’s going to be too expensive for me on draft day. He’s already a top-150 pick (http://hosted.stats.com/mlb/adp.asp?pos=OF) and we’re just getting started on baseball 2017. Heaven forbid he has a big spring, it’d be game over for sure, his price will soar. I lean closer to avoiding right now. September was great and while I don’t discount Septembers quite as much as others, it’s still just one month 3:11 Sonny: What kind of fantasy value does Blackmon have if he’s traded? Thinking about moving him before the draft in a dynasty, his keeper spot would be replaced w either Archer or K Seager 3:18 Paul Sporer: I think he’d lose a lot of value in the market, though I personally believe he can hang outside of Coors. He’d backslide some bc Coors is so great, but his road work would likely improve (though he dominated on the road in ’16) 3:18 Chuck: First year player draft: Aledmys Diaz or Ryon Healy? Thanks. 3:18 Paul Sporer: leaning Diaz 3:19 Brad: 14 team obp league roto . Would you rather draft a 1b who hits 32 homers with 353 obp or 1b who hits 27 homers with 378 obp? Runs + RBI are equal. Sb are negligible. Thank you! 3:21 Paul Sporer: Feel like the 25 points of OBP is worth more than 5 HRs. If the better OBP guy is consistently better in OBP, then I’d rather bet on that, especially because he could easily match the homer count 3:22 Moltar: How much of your budget is too much to devote to one player? In my points league Kershaw is up over $70 of my $300 budget, and is gonna be over $80 for next season. It’s a points league so he can and does win me matchups on his own, and similar pitchers go for big numbers in auction (Bumgarner got bid up to $61 last season). But at what point is it too much? 3:24 Paul Sporer: He is no doubt the best SP going, but one thing we’re not great at is determining when the SP is going to start the inevitable decline phase. I’m not here to tell you I think Kershaw will in 17, but he did miss time with a back. It’s almost always injury that gets a pitcher anyway and we saw one last year. When you’re getting nearly $20 in separation, I think it’s too much. I’d rather bet on the other aces at $15-20 cheaper even acknowledging how great Kersh is. 3:24 Rated Rookie: Marcus Stroman or Lucas Giolito worth a 16th round pick in a 11-team, 23-man roster, keep-forever league? Which is the better pick? 3:26 Paul Sporer: It’s Stroman. He’s shown way more… mainly bc Giolito hasn’t shown anything of merit on the MLB level yet. Now he’s changing orgs and leagues. I think Giolito is gonna need a year or two ramp up. I was among those exceedingly high on Giolito, dreaming of how the 75-80 grade fastball would decimate the league, but he showed a 55 fastball in his limited time last year and the offspeed wasn’t enough to help the degraded fastball. Keep in mind, he’ll be just 22, so even if he takes 2 up and down years here, he’ll be 24 in ’19 and we’ll still have plenty of reason to hype him. But for now, it’s Stroman 3:26 Steve: Which of these velo spikers are you buying most? Robbie Ray or James Paxton? sub 4, 200 K for both? 3:27 Paul Sporer: Buying Paxton most, but coming around on Ray a bit. Going to do more research into him this weekend, in fact. I just trust Paxton’s talent a little more, though in fairness, he doesn’t have a 200 K season like Ray. Paxton needs to show health, while Ray needs to show skill improvement. I’ll take my shot on Paxton ahead of Ray 3:27 Looking for Cheap MI: Jorge Polanco strikes me as a great $1-$2 flier next year, at the very least in an AL-only. What say you? 3:28 Paul Sporer: I’m OK with that. He’s not blowing the doors off of anything, but he’s not a bad $1 flier 3:28 Traps McGee: Mitch Haniger might be my favourite 2017 sleeper right now. Are you buying shares? 3:29 Paul Sporer: I am buying some shares. I was turned onto him after the trade when he got some glowing reports so I dove deeper and I see where it’s coming from. I think he has a shot to do some good stuff with SEA 3:29 Micah Johnson: Do I get 400 ABs in ATL? 3:31 Paul Sporer: Ehhhh, I don’t think so. Not without injury, of course. But for now, I’m betting on Sean Rodriguez getting a lot of 2B time. 3:31 Childish Gambino: Who’s the closer for the Reds and Twins come opening day? 3:33 Paul Sporer: Raisel Iglesias for Cincy and I actually think Trevor May is gonna nab that Minny job 3:33 Hack Wilson: 6×6 with OBP and QS. I can keep 5 and I am pretty locked in on 9th rd Machado, 12th rd Darvish, 22nd rd Pollock. Have to pick 2 from Cole (10), JD Mart (14), Gary Sanchez (8), Alex Reyes (15), Velasquez (25) and Nola (25). Starting pitching has gone very early in this league the past 2 years. 3:34 Paul Sporer: I think I’d just stack the hitting with JD and Sanchez, then crush pitching in the early rounds. There are some keepable SPs in that group, but none that I’m doing backflips for right now 3:34 BranFlakes: I’ve seen Greinke ranked ~SP20 range. Does that seem high for an SP that was tough to start in home games? Do you see a rebound this year? 3:38 Paul Sporer: I’ve got him top 25. He really struggled early on at home, but I think he started to figure it out. I can totally see him rebounding 3:38 Fantasy Man: Would you move Shelby Miller for Yasmani Grandal and Ty Blach in a standard league. 3:38 Paul Sporer: I sure would 3:39 Bones: Rank these keepers in an 11-team, 26-man roster, $280 auction league: Beltre $25, C. Santana $10, Tanaka $13, Quintana $8, M. Bradley $6 and R. Hill $5. Thank you, sir. 3:39 Paul Sporer: Is that Milton Bradley? 3:40 Paul Sporer: Santana, Tanaka, Hill, Quintana, and Beltre… I don’t know who Bradley is 3:50 Touki: Paul died I’ll take it from here 3:50 Paul Sporer: Didn’t die, sorry 3:50 Diego: Hi Paul, 3:50 Paul Sporer: Hi 3:50 Bones: It is Milton Bradley, sorry about that 3:50 Moltar: Did he mean Brantley? I have a soft spot for Brantley for some reason. Already betting I’m gonna snag him late in some drafts… 3:51 Paul Sporer: If it’s Brantley, he’s behind Hill. He’s risky for sure, but at $6, I don’t mind 3:51 Another Fantasy Man: Would you move Shelby Miller for a bag of scuffed up baseballs in a standard league? 3:51 Paul Sporer: I haven’t quit Miller entirely 3:52 Martin: Archer or Stras next year. 3:52 Paul Sporer: I have Stras 11, Archer 14. 3:52 Chuck: Betwixt and between, Dynasty forever with no contracts. Bregman and/or Dahl over Lindor? 3:52 Paul Sporer: If it’s and, meaning both v. Lindor, it’s the pair. If it’s a one v. one v. one, it’s still Lindor 3:52 Batman: The Dark Knight will rise again in Queens! 3:53 Paul Sporer: I sure hope, but thoracic outlet scares me 3:53 Harper: Do I get back into the top 3 conversation this season? 3:53 Paul Sporer: With health, I think so, yes 3:53 Paul Sporer: There’s a reason Harper is still a top 10 overall pick on average 3:53 A. Reitz: MLB The Show 17…how pumped are yee? 3:53 Paul Sporer: Quite! I haven’t put down ’16 so I’m definitely giddy to start getting news on 17 3:53 A. Reitz: Thoughts on Mitch Haniger going in to 2017? 3:53 Paul Sporer: See the other Q on him above 3:54 Paul Sporer: I’m a little behind on the queue, so bear with me! Y’all are crushing it today 3:54 Cru Jones: Can Matt Moore stay away from the walks and significantly outperform his ADP in 2017? 3:54 Paul Sporer: I believe so, yes. I’m firmly on the Moore train this year 3:54 YKnotDisco?!: Who was your favorite player growing up? 3:58 Paul Sporer: It kinda evolved as I aged: Kirk Gibson when I was young probably because he kinda looked like my dad with his stache (my dad has a lit af stache) then Roger Clemens then weirdly Darin Erstad and then it’s been Curtis Granderson since he started with the Tigers. Really big fan of Verlander and JD Martinez, too, but Curtis stays #1, even in NY 3:58 Josh: 2016 league-wide power spike – to be continued? 3:59 Paul Sporer: I think so, yes. It actually started in 2H 2015, btw 4:03 Tommy B: Keep forever league Trade Stanton straight up for Trea Turner? 4:04 Paul Sporer: Ahhh, that’s so hard. I think I would… yes 4:06 YKnotDisco?!: More WAR 2017?: Buxton or Heyward 4:06 Paul Sporer: Heyward 4:06 Tommy B: Keep Anthony Rendon or Jose Ramirez? 4:06 Paul Sporer: Close, but gimme Rendon 4:08 YKnotDisco?!: Do you think Bucky Jacobsen is hanging a sign as we speak? 4:09 Paul Sporer: :Googles Bucky Jacobsen: 4:11 Zig and Zag: Based on the NFBC ADP top 20 SP, any of them you will avoid besides Hendricks? 4:12 Paul Sporer: Not necessarily, no 4:12 Bahtolo: Will someone intentionally plunk Coco Crisp this season specifically because they read Neil Weinberg’s article? 4:14 Paul Sporer: :Googles Neil’s article: LOL, hopefully not bc that’d be kinda messed up, but it’s pretty impressive on Coco’s part 4:14 Sonny: 3 years of Franco for 2 years of Gausman in 5×5 10 tm dynasty with OPS instead of Avg or OBP 4:14 Paul Sporer: Gimme Franco 4:14 Golden Streamer: Which catcher do you like more in a dynasty points league: Chance Sisco or Zack Collins? 4:18 Paul Sporer: Collins 4:18 Carlos: I’m driving the Carlos Gomez train for next year. How likely is it he can do something like 100/22/85/.265/.330/25? 4:18 Paul Sporer: I think it’s definitely possible. I’m back in on him, too 4:19 Pat: Most important factors to consider when deciding to drop $50 of your $260 budget on one single player at the auction? 4:20 Paul Sporer: Basically, they have to be on offense first and foremost 4:21 Paul Sporer: I don’t htink I’d spend $50 even on Kersh. It’s really just a handful of guys 4:23 Cru Jones: Who’a this year’s Aaron Sanchez? 4:28 Paul Sporer: So like big prospect who rises up after being SUPER cheap? Maybe Daniel Norris or Mike Foltynewicz 4:28 Jose: Any chance Jose Abreu finally puts together two good halfs and is a top 3 1B next year? 4:28 Paul Sporer: Definitely a chance. He’s a good player for sure 4:28 Slamboni: What do you expect from Jackie Bradley Jr this year? Closer to 2016 or closer to 2015? 4:30 Paul Sporer: The two were actually quite similar from a bottom line standpoint… 3 pts difference in OPS. Low-to-mid .800s OPS with low-20s HRs 4:30 Hannah Hochevar: Hey Paul. Haven’t heard the Pod yet so apologies if this was covered, but are you interested in Andreise as the 5th guy for the Smyly-less Rays? A possible Rich Hill lite? Thanks! 4:30 Cru Jones: Does Matt Andriese make the Rays starting rotation this year? Am I crazy to be thinking about him in a deep 12 team mixed points league? 4:33 Paul Sporer: I don’t think he has that Rich Hill upside. Hill is elite for the innings he pitches, he just doesn’t pitch enough. Andriese strikes me as a solid 5th starter type who you could stream or use in AL only 4:33 Jbone Lacey: 12 team mixed keeper league 5×5 (OBP instead of average) . Would you prefer keeping both Manaea and Paxton in the 17-19 range over a Danny Duffy in the 8th? How about Kiermaier in the 21st? 4:34 Paul Sporer: Tough group. If the separation was closer, I’d go Duffy because I love his upside, but I’m gonna say Paxton at that price. He could be this year’s Duffy 4:35 YKnotDisco?!: DH in both leagues? or none? 4:35 Paul Sporer: Both 4:35 YKnotDisco?!: Would the All-Star experience be a better product by having competitions? Like running the bases, showing off arm strength and many other suggestions. What would you like to see? What questions would you like the All-Star event to answer? 4:35 Paul Sporer: it could, yeah, but I think it’s OK as-is. I love the future’s game and the new HR derby setup is great 4:36 Al Kaline: 16 team keeper league- Matt Moore or Sean Manaea? (short term and long term) 4:36 Paul Sporer: Moore 4:36 Bert: My bold 2017 prediction: Roman Quinn outperforms Villar (position notwithstanding). You dig? 4:36 Paul Sporer: I don’t agree, but I see some upside in Quinn 4:36 Not Chuck Norris: True or False: This year’s Edwin Diaz is Joe Jiminez 4:37 Paul Sporer: Ooh, he definitely could be. Oh how I’d long for a true fireballer for the Tigers in the 9th. (could still be Bruce Rondon, tbh) 4:37 Gest: In your mock I see Alex Reyes went 39 spots > Urias. Do you think there is that much separation between these pitchers?Similarly, Pineda went 39 spots > Robbie Ray. I’ve viewed these two pairs of pitchers to be about equal. Am I wrong? 4:40 Paul Sporer: No, you’re not off. I can totally see it with both pairs. 4:40 Thomas: Is there any hope of Miguel Sano getting to a 250 average? That seems like … a 90th percentile outcome? 4:42 Paul Sporer: Ya it’s definitely in his upper rangers 4:42 Paul Sporer: ranges* 4:43 Paul Sporer: He just doesn’t make enough contact. You have to protect him with the avg 4:43 YKnotDisco?!: Who would you rather have for the next 5 years: Odubel or Inciarte? 4:44 Paul Sporer: I don’t really plan that far out at all, but I guess Odubel 4:44 Brian: Do you envision sonny or liriano bouncing back to 2015 form or something closer to it than last year? 4:46 Paul Sporer: Yeah, Sonny if he’s healthy. Liriano kinda already did with Toronto. Liriano could be back on track for a full season if he gets his HRs in check 4:46 Marc: Will you guys have the big help with our keeper questions post like last year? 4:46 Paul Sporer: What post was that? 4:46 Scooby: Thanks for the chat, Paul. I’ve been offered Villar ($7) for Schoop ($9) straight up in an Ottoneu classic 4×4 (R, HR, OBP, SLG) keeper. Might seem like a no-brainer, but without SBs, is it? Does Schoop have the potential to be a powerhouse in HR and SLG more than Villar in R and OBP? 4:47 Paul Sporer: Ya I don’t think it’s quite a slam dunk without SBs. I probably wouldn’t do it. Keep Schoop 4:47 Herbie: What kind of ceiling would you give for Domingo Santana in 2017? 4:47 Paul Sporer: He could be a solid 4th OF in fantasy. .265/25/12 if he pops 4:48 Scooby: How much do you like Folty’s chances of taking a big step this year, if at all? 4:50 Paul Sporer: I’m a fan – Paul Sporer @sporer Folty with a 21 MPH velo split over three pitches 13 Jan 2017 I really like his stuff. If he can develop some command which will bring on consistency, we could see a big step 4:51 Andrew : Hi Paul! Can you please rank Gausman, Paxton, McCullers, Bundy and Desclafani in a dynasty league? Thanks so much! 4:51 Paul Sporer: Gausman, Paxton, McCullers, Disco, and Bundy 4:52 Paul Sporer: Maybe Bundy over Disco for dynasty, but I don’t plan too far out even in dynasty. things change SO much year to year 4:52 Seanto: Any surprise guys to look out for in the Phillies rotation? 4:53 Paul Sporer: I think they’re pretty well know, but I like Nola, VV, and Eickhoff. Hellickson in NL. Not a Buchholz guy at all 4:53 Seanto: dynasty league. considering moving Carson Fulmer for some future 1st round picks. thoughts? 4:53 Paul Sporer: I’m OK with that. I think he’s a closer at best 4:54 conatron: Heard any word on how Starling Marte’s back recovery has been going? 4:55 Paul Sporer: I haven’t. Did he have surgery or anything? 4:56 Harrigan: With Tillman and Sonny both signing one-year deals today, do you really see Tillman as worth $6.5 million more than Sonny? Does that narrow the gap in their rankings for fantasy purposes, or just bad business? 4:57 Paul Sporer: Keep in mind that’s arbitration, not open market deals. I wouldn’t use it to impact fantasy rankings at all. Gray just entered arb and Tillman was third year 4:57 JP: So I’ve got the 10th pick in my re-draft H2H league. Who are you taking of these three options – Donaldson, Rizzo, Harper. 4:57 Paul Sporer: Harper 4:57 Make WAR not Love: 14 team mixed standard 5×5, keep two of desmond (7th round), Schwarber (12th), Dahl (14th)? 4:57 Paul Sporer: Last two 4:57 Herbie: Berrios or Giolito: after all is said and done, who will have a better career and why? 5:00 Paul Sporer: Hmmm 5:01 Paul Sporer: Giolito came down a tick after ’16, but I still have him over Berrios. Plus, it’s not like Berrios’ 16 was great 5:01 On second thought: Keep forever and trying to contend. Trade my Zobrist and Giolito to upgrade to Cano? 5:01 Paul Sporer: Yeah, go for that 5:01 Texas Pat: Seeing reports that the Rangers signed Tyson Ross… 5:02 Paul Sporer: Just saw that. One year deal. Decent gamble, but would’ve rather 2 years in case he does rebound so you have him cheap in ’18 5:02 Moltar: $6 Fulmer or $30 Lester? 5:02 Paul Sporer: I think the split is enough to go cheap. 5:02 Jason: Just got home – came to read transcript and you’re still going strong. My man! 5:03 Paul Sporer: Little longer! 5:03 will: should i keep villar or edwin diaz 5:03 Paul Sporer: Villar for sure 5:03 AKA22: Iannetta to the Dbacks. See any NL only value? 5:05 Paul Sporer: Ooh, I do. Knew they couldn’t be going with Mathis/Hermann. Chase isn’t Coors, but it’ll help the bat 5:05 Eric: Why are you back in on Gomez? He’s been putrid for the past year and a half. 5:05 Paul Sporer: There were injury reasons, though, and he looked like himself in Texas down the stretch. If there’s health, there’s production 5:08 Bob: Ozuna, over/under 28 hrs 90 rbi .265 avg ??? 5:09 Paul Sporer: Can I take even? That’s about what I have for him. I’ll say over for fun – 30/92/.269 5:09 Bones: Paul, do you have a link to your startng pitching rankings? 5:09 Paul Sporer: I haven’t released anything beyond my top 24 yet – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/top-24-starting-pitchers-for-2017/ 5:09 Jon: Keep forever league: Last off-season I traded Trea Turner and Stroman for Bogaerts. How does that look a year out? 5:10 Paul Sporer: You’re prob on the losing end at this point because of Turner’s breakout, but Bogy is a stud so it’s hardly a problem to be on the losing side here 5:10 12 to 6: Erstad was pretty awesome in 2000*** 5:11 Paul Sporer: No doubt. Always liked power-speed guys and he was double-double from 97-00. Fell off hard after that ’00 of course… prob why you put those *s 5:12 12 to 6: Erstad was pretty awesome in 2001 5:12 Paul Sporer: Oh wait 5:12 Paul Sporer: I thought you put the *s implying he had help in 2000 but I missed this msg 5:12 Cory S.: RE Greinke at home: in the 2H he had a K-B% of 1.3%. That led him towards a 4.37 FIP. 5:14 Paul Sporer: I was just eyeballing the gamelog from about June on and saw a lot of good starts. At any rate, that K-BB% is obv trash, but I don’t think he’ll keep a 15% K rate at home 5:14 Jon: Choose two for 2017 with 5×5 stats: Osuna, Davis, Miller 5:14 Paul Sporer: I’ll go Osuna and Davis. 5:14 Jon: Jose Ramirez over Adam Jones and/or Jose Bautista in a keeper? 5:14 Paul Sporer: Yes 5:14 Guest: 12 team NL only, Brandon Drury for Dan Straily. Fair trade? 5:14 Paul Sporer: Definitely 5:14 Brad: My obp hr example was freeman vs encarncion. I averaged the steamer zips projections for both. 5:15 Paul Sporer: Ah OK. So Freeman had the better OBP? I’m OK slotting him over EE for the reason I outlined, but also age. They’re basically one spot apart, though, two at most 5:15 Moltar: Chances Reed takes the job in NY and never gives it up? 5:16 Paul Sporer: High that he starts the season with it bc of Familia suspension, but then I’d put it at 40% chance he keeps it. I think they like Familia enough to give him the role back 5:16 Ty Blach: Thanks for the love on the pod! I think I’ll surprise some folks this year and collect some ROY votes 5:16 Paul Sporer: Eno definitely has me giving him another look 5:16 Aaron: I know Moncadas k’s are a concern, but per statcast only about half his called strikes were in the zone. If his k rate was 40% instead of the 60% he put up last year, would that change how he’s viewed? 5:17 Paul Sporer: I’m unmoved by 20 PA, no matter how good or bad. If people are making moves on him because of that, they’re insane 5:17 Bahtolo: Khris Davis: got a chance to lead the majors in homers? 5:18 Paul Sporer: Certainly. Was only 5 away from it this past season 5:18 Jeff Zimmerman: Gausman. Stud or Super Stud? 5:18 Paul Sporer: LOL 5:18 Paul Sporer: Stud 5:19 Paul Sporer: with Super studliness on the horizon 5:19 Bradigan: Correa is great! Everyone loves Correa! But slim chance he plays 162 in 2017, right? Do you think Bregman will be seeing time at SS if Correa is not in the lineup? 5:20 Paul Sporer: Only 3 guys played 162 so ya, he prob won’t. But his PT isn’t in ANY danger 5:20 Marc: Scared that Glasnows future is in the pen? Granted he will be given every chance to start for the next couple of years but can he realistically get those walks trimmed way down? 5:20 Paul Sporer: Yeah, I’m not as gassed up on him as others. I just don’t see him consistently keeping his mechanics at that height 5:20 Marc: Re Marte: Should be fine. No surgery or anything and the issues were pretty minor. 5:20 Paul Sporer: OK, good to know 5:21 will: do you think at some point a team may adopt a 7 man rotation consisting of all relievers with ridiculous k/bb ratios and swinging strike rates? 5:22 Paul Sporer: I think we’re more likely to see the super RP role come back. Right now, guys are either 6 IP or 1 IP guys, nothing in between. Which is insane, tbh. I think we gotta get back to guys who are 2 and 3 IP guys. 5:22 Paul Sporer: Start getting some RPs up over 100+ IP regularly 5:22 Ben: What side do you take on this trade- Duffy or Piscotty+McCullers? 5:22 Paul Sporer: Piscotty/Mc 5:22 Brian: Does Miguel Sano get it going this season? Do you see a top 5 finish? 5:22 Paul Sporer: Top 5 at position? Not with his AVG issues 5:23 Paul Sporer: No chance I could get to all the questions today! Y’all flat out killed it. We’ll be back next week. As always, you can hit me up on Twitter (@sporer) if you have a 140 character-friendly question. 5:23 Paul Sporer: Thanks for coming out! 5:23 Paul Sporer: Peace.