Early ADP Thoughts – Second Base, Shortstop
I love pouring over ADP data in the dead of winter to see how the next season’s market is shaping up. I didn’t touch on this in the first base/catcher review last time out, but I should mention that ADP is merely a guide and a partially blind one at that. It only takes one other person in your league to throw everything off.
This is where knowing your league is very important because if you know that most of the league takes their cues from ADP, it can be especially helpful. But if you play with a group of folks who march to their own drum – and it doesn’t even have to be the whole league, it can be just 2-3 people – then you’re getting very general information from it at best.
Anyway, I just wanted to make that clear before continuing this series. If anything, this is a jumping off point to give some thoughts on a handful of players at every position. We all know that this is a living, breathing market that is in its infancy for the 2017 season. Enough preamble, let’s get into the middle infield.
Previously: 1B/C
SECOND BASE (click through for ADP data)
- Jose Altuve (pick 4) has a remarkably narrow spread early on with a minimum pick of 3 and maximum of 7. He will go 2nd overall in some drafts by the end of draft season, too.
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- I just don’t see another 40-homer season from Brian Dozier (29) and even though a return to his pre-2016 level of .240/25 HR/15 SB would be perfectly useful, I find that too likely of an outcome to pay a second round pick.
- Daniel Murphy’s (34) breakout really began in August of 2015 with an .853 OPS over his final 50 games and he went on to lead the NL with a .985 OPS in 2016.
- Dating back to August 1st, 2015, Murphy’s .950 OPS is 6th-best in baseball, ahead of Kris Bryant (.946), Miguel Cabrera (.938), Freddie Freeman (.936), and Nolan Arenado (.932) to name a few. If he wasn’t going into his age-32 season, he’d be a late-first, early-second round pick. Instead, he’s a third-rounder and someone I’ll be targeting, even with an expected drop off from his ’16 perch.
- On the one hand, I see some red flags in Rougned Odor’s (39) big breakout season: sub-.300 OBP, 3% BB, 17% HR/FB, and his meager success rate on the bases, but at the same time he’s a 23-year old with pedigree, who also upped his flyball rate and crushed the ball (35%… average for 2B was 31%).
- I probably won’t pay up for Odor, but it’s more because of my comfort with the depth at this position than a total lack of belief in Odor.
- Jean Segura (49) may have made some changes he’ll take with him to Seattle, but Safeco is unlikely to offer the .891 OPS of Chase Field and his non-Coors road work yielded a .798 OPS so he’s unlikely to pick up the slack in a host of neutral or pitcher-friendly AL West parks.
- DJ LeMahieu’s (90) feels low, though there’s no one at the position that I think he obviously needs to leapfrog, so maybe it’s just the depth offering a bargain. Being batting average-dependent yields some volatility, but it’s mitigated by playing half of his games in Coors, where batting average thrives.
- Ian Kinsler (75) and Jason Kipnis (96) have flipped in the market where Kipnis is now the generic-priced version of Kinsler. For a few years, Kipnis was the overpriced name-brand version.
- Kinsler is a having rock-solid 30s, but I’m just not sure he’s cost-efficient at this position right now.
- Dustin Pedroia (138) and Ben Zobrist (161) are a similar pairing. If you want Pedroia, just wait a little and get Zobrist cheaper. Unless you really need the batting average because I think Pedroia will continue to hold an edge there. Or you could really wait and get a Pedroia-lite after pick 320. More on who that is in a moment.
- Jose Peraza’s (141) gaudy .361 BABIP might scream regression for his .324 AVG, but his super-high contact, groundball/line drive approach paired with his elite speed have been churning out big BABIPs for a while. It could come down some, but I don’t think projecting something around .335+ is out of bounds.
- Jonathan Schoop (180) is similar in that I don’t think he’s massively out of place in respect to his position, but I’m more than willing to pay this price given the power we’ve seen from the 25-year old.
- What might a full season of Devon Travis (214) look like? I’ll pick up a few shares to find out if it’s similar to his career line which has essentially totaled a full season (163 gms, 671 PA) of .301/.342/.469 with 19 HR, 85 RBI, 92 R, and 7 SB.
- There isn’t a ton of difference between Jedd Gyorko (230), Starlin Castro (242), Logan Forsythe (243), and Neil Walker (247) and the market certainly agrees with a 17-pick split.
- However, Sean Rodriguez (306) also looked a lot like them in his limited time last year so if his changes stick and you’re looking for that kind of .270/mid-20s HR guy to slot in at MI, he might be your best bet. I don’t buy Jace Peterson (490) as a true roadblock to full-time work for Rodriguez, either.
- One of my favorite late targets at the position is the forgotten Joe Panik (325). This is the Pedroia alternative I mentioned earlier. Panik had a tough ’16, but an assessment of the skills really does wind up pointing to a lot of bad luck over anything else. He also suffered a concussion, but the issues were the same before and after. The two compared favorably in 2015 and I expect Panik’s AVG to soar back toward .300 in 2017.
- One of my main takeaways is that I’m just not taking Pedroia this year.
- Ryan Schimpf (309) is a bargain priced Gyorko, but you must have AVG protection around him.
- I can’t completely quit Jurickson Profar (371), but thankfully I’m not being taxed for that devotion with his price way down.
- Of the infield positions, SS is tied with 1B and 2B for the most picks within the first three rounds (top 45 picks) at six. C has just one (Posey) while 3B has four. For those curious, OF has nine.
- The difference between Carlos Correa (16) and Corey Seager (18) really seems to be a tradeoff of SBs and AVG, though I think Correa is far more likely to add to his AVG than Seager is to add SBs. Love both, but give me Correa rather easily.
- I’m generally buying what we saw out of Jonathan Villar (21). He didn’t quite show the .171 ISO/19 HR pop we saw this past year during his minor league days, but he showed enough punch to believe he could be a double-digit HR guy with his gaudy SB totals (stole 53/600 PA in the minors).
- Bring Villar’s HR/FB rate down toward league average and he’s more of a 12-14 HR guy, but paired with 45 SBs, a .275 AVG, and 80 runs, it works.
- Bake in some pullback, but Xander Bogaerts (28) and Francisco Lindor (31) should sit around their 2016 level (give-or-take 10%) for the next few seasons.
- It’s a substantial drop-off after the sixth of those guys, though, with 84 picks separating Trevor Story (32) and Eduardo Nunez (116).
- Story’s thumb injury should be fully healed by Spring Training (it typically has about a 3-4 month turnaround and the surgery was in August) and I’m absolutely willing to buy. We saw how well the power played in Coors, now imagine if he adds the speed he had in the minors (25 SB/600 PA) to what we saw in ’16.
- Even though the full breakout didn’t come in ’16, I remain completely in on Addison Russell (131). On average, the price is actually down despite a 21 HR/95 RBI campaign.
- Aledmys Diaz (145) had a .402 AVG through his first 28 games, but even a full season of his cool-down phase would play very well at his price: .269/.350/.455 with 12 HR, 49 RBI, 48 R, and 3 SB in 362 PA (83 games, so essentially a half-season).
- Troy Tulowitzki (156) is an 11th round pick on average. Troy. Tulowitzki. Eleventh. Round.
- Not saying he shouldn’t be, he does have just a .769 OPS the last two years. However, there is a tinge of “fountain of youth” upside here at this cost where even if he doesn’t, you’re not taking a massive hit.
- I mentioned him at second base, but Gyorko also qualifies here (as well as third) and I’m not sure why you’d take Brad Miller (149) 81 picks earlier.
- They are the same. The playing time difference and 6 SBs aren’t worth five rounds.
- Why pay a premium for Elvis Andrus (156) when Jose Reyes (309) and Alcides Escobar (331) offer the same kind of skillset waaaay later?
- Maybe you don’t want to go quite that cheap, but I’d still rather wait about two rounds and gamble on up-and-comer Tim Anderson (182).
- Dansby Swanson’s (192) “jack of all trades, master of none” profile coming up may have him underrated on the fantasy landscape, somewhat similar to how Lindor was before bursting onto the scene. He’s unlikely to reach Lindor’s heights immediately, but a double-double with a .270 AVG is plenty useful in the 12-14th round range.
- If that offense plays more like the second half than the first, Swanson could be a sneaky runs asset batting second.
- Brandon Crawford’s (243) HR/FB rate was cut in half and took nine homers away, but he added 20 points of batting average in its which might’ve actually been more useful considering how plentiful HRs were last year. I think he’s too low here.
- I was not a fan coming into this past season, but I could see Chase Field breathing some life into Ketel Marte’s (311) bat similar to how it did with Segura and all of a sudden, he’s a bargain Andrus as well. Bottom line: I’m not drafting Andrus.
- Freddy Galvis (338) was 3 SBs shy of a 20-20 season, so there’s that. Clearly the market is calling “bullshit” on that and I agree. Hard pass.
—
Alright, it’s once again your turn. Who are your prime targets and favorite bargains at each of these positions?
What about robinson Cano? Will he maintain his high level?
Ya, I didn’t hit on every player so a steady-Eddie stud like Cano was easier to pass over. I think he remains a great investment.
A Diaz is my favorite SS value play for 2017: A HBP injury cut his counting stats short in 2016 but there’s nothing about his 2016 rate stats that look unsustainable:
.312 babip : reasonable given his 15.6/45.5/38.9 LD/GB/FB %’s
12.6% HR/FB : about league average
31.5% Hard contact: solid for a MI
13% K rate: supported by his 7.4% swSTR%
There’s a lot about his profile that reminds me of Daniel Murphy: surprising power, big pull rate, never K’s.
I like him for a ~.290 average and 20+ HR in 2017.
Was really impressed by him this year. He was definitely more than just the .400 for a month run, too.
I’m in a points league, not a roto league, so I don’t need to worry quite as much about needing protection for players (ie. needing to draft high AVG players to offset Schimpf). Evaluating on a more standalone basis, the difference between Segura and Diaz is quite small taking into account my points structure; in fact, using the projections that CBS just released, Diaz is projected to score more points:
Diaz: 561 AB, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 10 SB, .283/.353/.469 = 692.72 pts
Segura: 588 AB, 16 HR, 55 RBI, 22 SB, .292/.339/.439 = 631.48 pts
IMO, Segura’s RBI and SBs seem low, and I’m not sure Diaz will best him in OBP and SLG. Which of these forecasts seems more likely to happen? If the cost for both is equal, which should I take? Thanks.
Ya moving away from roto hurts Segura bc his SBs aren’t as important. I’d be really surprised if they cost the same as they’re about 100 picks apart in ADP right now. I can totally get behind going for Diaz over Segura in your format, though.
I like seeing the Story and Villar love. Would you agree that Villar’s 2016 was essentially more of the same skill set he’s always shown . . . with a full time job and some BABIP luck? Aside from AVG, I’ve been eyeing him as someone who could mimic Altuve’s production pretty closely.
Oh ya. Like I mentioned, I think the pop was a little more than we saw in the minors, but I really believe he’s a fantasy stud.
Love this format Paul.
Thanks! I like that it allows me to give thoughts on a lot of players without being a 3000-word piece.
i’ll buy that brad miller and gyorko are similar hitters, but miller currently has a starting job lined up and gyorko doesn’t, so waving off the “playing time differences” and chiding people for letting gyorko drop 5 rounds further with “they are the same” strikes me as a bit casual. in most leagues i’m not big on drafting bench players, even talented ones; i’m sure gyorko does wind up playing a lot, but it’s still a very real drawback
Roster Resource has him starting: http://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-st-louis-cardinals/
You can make a case that Miller’s PT edge is mitigated by the fact that the AVG is so bad. He’s doing more damage there than his R/RBI gains are helping over Jerk Store.
There just isn’t five rounds of difference between these two, IMO.
roster resource aren’t magic gnomes, they have to make a lot of judgment calls on ambiguous situations this time of year. they’ve got a few things up right now that i straight up don’t think are right, and many more that are ok, since you gotta put something, but not set in stone.
if you google the latest cardinals infield talk, it’s *possible* that gyorko winds up starting over some combination of peralta + wong, but it certainly isn’t locked in.
OK, conversely, you acted as though he WILL be a bench player when that’s certainly not locked in, either. I was simply quoting my source.
no, not really. i said that miller has a starting job lined up and gyorko doesn’t. by “lined up” i meant uncontroversial.
there’s a continuum of playing time certainty this time of year: (A) locked in starter > (B) probable starter > (C) probable bench player > (D) certain bench player… right now miller is (A) and gyorko is somewhere between (B) and (C) depending on which article you read.
that makes a big difference to me when i’m drafting. maybe to other people it doesn’t! certainly it’s possible that gyorko plays every game this year, or has a better year than miller in any number of ways. i just don’t see role concerns as some minor detail here.
OK. And I saw him having a spot lined up and offered my source. Not much more I can do for ya, I guess. You can take Miller, I’ll wait and take Gyorko.
http://sports.live.stltoday.com/Event/Cardinals_chat_with_Derrick_Goold_8b48ee2a6482?Page=0
“Mike Matheny has outlined an infield that starts with Diaz and Peralta as the starters there and Jedd Gyorko as the regular replacement, at third.”
…
“What they won’t articulate, but I can here after asking around about this is how the Cardinals could make a move for a third baseman during the 2017 season. It could be the position that they look to upgrade around the trade deadline or some other time if their current setup falters. That’s a possibility. So too is Gyorko playing his way into innings at third.”
…
“Cardinals have talked openly this offseason about where Gyorko fits, and how he could be the backup at third base, the starter at third base, the complement at second base, the starter at second base, or a combination of all of the above. I asked Mozeliak at the winter meetings if it was counter-intuitive for the Cardinals to talk about their HR leader as a part-time player, and he nodded. That’s why they want to find some sort of hybrid fit for him. A RH-complement to Wong seems most obvious, and then a guy who can spell Peralta a couple times a week works. Or starts at third if Peralta spells Diaz at shortstop. That’s how they’re seeing it now.”
You’re pressing hard against something I didn’t really dispute. I simply pointed out the source I was using. Based on that, it looks like 4-5 gms a week with a chance at more if Kolten Wong continues to suck or someone gets hurt. The difference, if Gyorko does only play 4-5 gms a week, is essentially the 120 PA that Brad Miller gets against lefties, which I don’t want anyway. So I’m still where I started: they’re the same.
ok. but, i mean, miller faced lefties last year too and their slash lines still wound up about the same. is the argument really that the AVG is so bad that it does more damage than the counting stats help over those last ~120 PA? wouldn’t that also mean you don’t want the first 450 PA either? might be better not to draft either of them then
Paul, you should have rolled with: Oh yeah!? Well, the Gyork Store called and they say YOU’re a bench player!
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL, that’s hilarious!!!!
My actual argument has just been that they’re not different enough to warrant the cost different. I just don’t think his vL playing time moves the needle. Miller had his best OPS vL last yr and it was .682. I don’t want to pay 5 extra rounds for the .227 AVG, 8 R, 3 HR, and 14 RBI that he had vL.
Your main contention was the playing time, I don’t believe it changes things, especially not at the 5 rounds. Gyorko may not start, I was only going off of RR. Even if he doesn’t, I still don’t want Miller over him at all. There’s also risk of Miller losing the PT vL, as he’s never been good and he’s on a team like TB that is very open to platoons which would only make him a worse investment at the more expensive cost.
At this point, I feel like I’m just repeating myself a bit so I’ll probably cap it here on my end.
ok. i’m not really trying to, like, come at you here. i don’t even like miller! i’ll take sean-rod over either of them tbh. i just think playing time is pretty important, that’s all. i learned through bitter experience to mostly just not draft dudes who don’t have full playing time secured. so i get where people are coming from fading gyorko on that account, is all i started out trying to say.
but every rule has its exceptions, i suppose. miller getting platooned himself does seem like a real threat.
Starting or not, do you really think the Cards aren’t going to find significant ABs for a guy who hit 30 bombs and can play more than adequate defense at every infield position? Even if he rotates through the IF as a breather, he’ll basically be accruing starter-level plate appearances.
Gyorko’s 2.3 WAR last season bests every other Cards IF except Carpenter (and Diaz by a hair). To suggest he’s not going to get PT is absurd.
Yeah, because he doesn’t get on base much and plays below average defense at each of those positions. He’s only a one dimensional slugger. His superior WAR number is only due to the fact that the only other St. Louis infielders who also stayed healthy all year were the sparsely used Garcia and an up and down year from Wong including a stint in AAA.
A healthy Peralta and a more consistent Wong (although the latter is far from a given) are both overall better real life players than Gyorko despite Gyorko likely being a better fantasy player per 162 games. Heck, even his fellow bench player Adams is possibly a better overall player if his only position wasn’t now heavily blocked. I personally don’t see Gyorko even getting 400 PA again unless there’s another plague of injuries around the St. Louis infield like last year.
Below average defenders don’t usually accrue a 2.4 Def WAR, nor do any batters accrue an Off WAR of 6 just by staying healthy.
Gyorko improved as a batter across the board last season despite a career low BABIP. He struck out less, walked more, and maintained his pretty solid batted ball profile. Oh yeah, and his OBP was almost identical to Peralta’s and his wOBA was significantly better than Peralta or Wong.
But hey, who knows, maybe 34 year old Peralta will somehow return to his 2015 form – even though he only had a 1.7 WAR that season and was terrible at 3B in 2016.
ummm….where is manny machado?
He’ll be in the 3B and I’ll make metion of his SS elig. The SECOND BASE and SHORTSTOP headers are clickable links so you can see what I’m looking at. I’m just going off of what they have so I’m not always addressing the multi-eligibility guys. I did so with Gyorko because I was doing the comparison to Miller.
For what it’s worth, in most leagues that are even semi-standard, there’s not much of any positional adjustment between 3B and SS for 2017 on draft day. In fact, nearly all the positions (save Catcher) are within a dollar of each other in many formats.
yep, first year in a long time there is no positional adjustment. Outfielders are a bunch of league average performers lately. 1B took a step back while other positions leaped forward. Meanwhile, 27 catchers with starting jobs can’t hit.
Trea Turner qualifies at 2B and shortly into 2017 as a SS. I know you guys only put players at 1 position (OF) but if someone qualifies at a position, they should also be ranked at that position. For a company that works so hard at giving so much information, you do a poor job at giving a player that has multiple position qualifications rankings
This isn’t a ranking list, it’s an assessment of the ADP data. And I didn’t discuss Turner because I’ve already discussed in my ACTUAL rankings and he’ll get plenty of run this season – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/top-15-second-basemen-first-run/
Our actual rankings from last year had dual-eligible players at both spots, too: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/rotographs-ranking-march-update-second-basemen/ http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/rotographs-ranking-march-update-shortstop/
Javy Baez?
See the above comments on guys w/dual-elig.
So you’re listing him as a 3B for this article? That works, I just figured he’d be listed at 2B/SS. That’s where I’m guessing most people will slot him.
Ya I’m just going off of the data from Stats and they put him at 3B. http://hosted.stats.com/mlb/adp.asp?pos=3B
I’ll make mention of his eligibility elsewhere, though.
That link is awesome! do you know if they have a downloadable version of that data (that I wouldn’t have to pay for)?
I don’t think so, but I think you can copy-n-paste pretty easily into Excel
Great article. Question for you: in terms of an 11-team, $260 AL-only league, do you see 2B/SS as positions I’m best served coming out of the auction with a stud or is it of more benefit to grab one of the lower-end options at the end for a few bucks? Thanks!
I’d probably get a stud at one of the 3 spots (2B/SS/MI) and then bargain hunt the others. Maybe a Correa, Schoop, Profar trio.
Edit: Schoop might be too good to be labeled a bargain in AL-Only, so maybe someone like Devon Travis comes a couple bucks cheaper. Or Marcus Semien. Main point: I’d only buy one stud out of the 3 positions and even that isn’t a MUST. If I had say, Schoop, Semien, Profar, I’d be OK with that because you can spend the cash at 1B/3B/OF pretty easily.
Paul what are your thoughts on Orlando Arcia?
I think his fantasy relevance might need a couple seasons. His defense is good enough to earn him the PT and should give him a leash to learn how to hit at the major league level. Similar to what Brandon Crawford did, though starting at a much earlier age and with more upside.
I don’t get Seager’s ADP. The projection is good, but not 2nd-round level, and I’m not seeing any obvious reason to pump him up too much beyond the projection. With 5-6 SS’s with better projections than him, I won’t own him on any team…
I think a lot of folks are baking in upside and see the superstar potential as something to pay a premium for. Like I said in the piece, I love the guy, but it’s Correa easily for me.
Great stuff. FYI; Peraza is SS/ OF eligible in NFBC and does not have 2nd base. Great option for bags and the OF eligibility is a nice hedge. Owings is also both SS and OF eligible and is decent speed option after 300.
Good looking out! That’s frustrating that they listed him there when it’s NFBC data. I’ll move him into the SS section.
I drafted him last week in NFBC and their older mobile site had him at 2b. Looks like a glitch in the system.
Schimpf a $5 NL only keeper if I have Yelich, Posey, Lamb, Story, Ozuna as my other good offensive pieces? $260 auction
Ya I’m cool with $5 on Jumbo Schimpf!
Nothing on Cesar Hernandez? Dude killed it late in the year, especially for OBP leagues..
Just couldn’t hit on everyone and I’m very concerned about a 57% success rate on the bases for someone who is mostly an SB source.
Yikes, Wily Mo went full Pena swinging at this Gyorko/Miller situation.
I’m not sure why the off-season makes fantasy players worry so much about playing time. If the Cards think the Gyrk can hack it at 3B,SS,2B and maybe even 1B, dude’s going to play. Why would a smart org trade for a guy, watch him hit 30 bombs playing all over the IF, and then stop giving him ABs? Guy put up 2.3 wins in a most-of-the-time role–something like a 19 million dollar season–no way they don’t play him. I’m totally cool with losing his games against dominant right-handed starters.
I can see a lot of paths to a pro-Miller argument–I just think they don’t really have anything to do with Gyorko.
One thing the two have in common–both took off after the 1000 PA threshold. Miller will be 27 this year; Gyorko will be 28. Regression could be coming for both, but it seems more logical to bet on a settling into their newfound, Veteran-level, MLB skill levels.