Author Archive: Paul Sporer

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 423 – Martinez Extended; Twins Breakdown

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February 2, 2017

2/2/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

HUGE UPS TO AZIZ OF WESTEROS HISTORY FOR CLEANING UP THE OUT-OF-SYNC AUDIO ON THIS ONE. Btw, if you like Game of Thrones, I’m pretty sure that’s what Aziz’s handle refers to (I don’t watch the show) and he has a site and pod related to the show!

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 Leading Off: Question of the Day (3:40)

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

Strategy Section: Team-by-Team Breakdowns

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01:25:18

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Andrew Benintendi and Recent #1 Prospects

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February 1, 2017

This past weekend saw the release of MLB.com’s Top 100 prospects, including a show on MLB Network highlighting the Top 50. Andrew Benintendi was named their #1 overall prospect, a fact that’s sure raise his price some in the draft market, especially after Keith Law ranked him the same last week. Back in December, our own Trey Baughn gave him the top spot in his fantasy prospects list and CBS slotted him 2nd in a similar list focusing on fantasy impact.

I’m a little torn on Benintendi for 2017. On the one hand, he’s an advanced college bat who blitzed through the minors in 151 games and acquitted himself very well in a 34-game sample at the majors. On the other, he’s going into his age-22 season with a whopping 118 PA under his belt and that first six-month grind has a way of punching players in the face at some – or multiple points – throughout the season. But then back on the first hand, we know from Jeff Zimmerman that aging curves are moving up so maybe Benintendi is ready to be an impact bat already.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 422 – The Al Melchior Debut!

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January 31, 2017

1/31/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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 Leading Off: Question of the Day (3:40)

Strategy Section: Team-by-Team Breakdowns

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00:58:46

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Early ADP Thoughts – Starting Pitcher, Part II

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January 31, 2017

Today’s ADP piece is looking at the SPs beyond the top 50. This is where you can win leagues. Let me emphasize “can” because leagues are rarely won or lost at the draft table alone. After all, there’s a reason we play out the six months of the season and don’t just go off a projection set. Usually a good 40-50% of many rosters turn over every year, at least in mixed leagues in the 10-15 team range.

Even if there are only 6-7 player slots turned over out of a 23-man roster (which is 25-30% turnover), there will still be many players moving in and out those slots. The point is that you shouldn’t get too precious about your draft picks in the mid-to-late rounds because a lot of them aren’t going to be on your roster very long anyway. Pitchers in particular have huge variance year-to-year so take your guys in this part of the draft.

Previous Editions:

STARTING PITCHER (click here for ADP list)

  • Jeff Samardzija (pick 196) might not have bounced back as well as some of us expected, but he shaved over a run off his ERA and further showed himself as one of the few workhorses left in the market.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 421 – Hell’s Angels

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January 29, 2017

1/29/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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 Leading Off: Question of the Day (3:40)

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

Strategy Section: Team-by-Team Breakdowns

  • Los Angeles Angels
    • Who earns the most SVs on this team? (25:40)
    • Betting on Matt Shoemaker (65th SP) or Garrett Richards (69th)? (28:30)
    • Does Ben Revere bounce back? (34:33)
    • Favorite Target: Revere for both
    • Stayaway: the entire team besides Trout?
    • Off-the-Radar: Tyler Skaggs (42:44)
    • Impact Prospects? (lol)

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01:05:07

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 420 – Mr. Solo Dolo

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January 28, 2017

I called it episode 421 by accident, my bad!

1/28/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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 Leading Off: Question of the Day (1:10)

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

Strategy Section: Team-by-Team Breakdowns

  • Pittsburgh Pirates (22:00)
    • Which of the three OF do you want most? (23:000)
    • What’s a full Josh Bell season look like? (31:00)
    • Does Tony Watson hold the CL role? (34:50)
    • Favorite Target: Ivan Nova (41:00)
    • Stayaway: Starling Marte (44:20)
    • Off-the-Radar: Alen Hanson (45:00)
    • Impact Prospects: Bell, Hanson (49:00)

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00:55:27

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – January 27th, 2017

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January 27, 2017

Chat transcript is below!

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Early ADP Thoughts – Starting Pitcher, Part I

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January 26, 2017

The volatility of pitching makes SP average draft figures sketchy after the top 25 or so. Opinions can only differ so much on hitters, especially those with anything close to a track record (starting around ~1000+ MLB PA), but opinions will vary widely on pitchers regardless of track record. Some won’t believe in a pitcher until he has 500-600 IP under his belt regardless of how good his first 200-300 are while on the other end you have fantasy players afraid to be holding the hot potato when the music stops on someone with a lengthy track record in their mid-30s.

Most of the guys in that sweet spot are the established aces and frontliners (lower level #1s, elite #2s) that we generally agree on for those early round picks. This year is vastly different than last year which is likely to create even wider chasms perhaps as early as the mid-teens among starters. The uncertainty should create some fantastic buying opportunities, though, and it’ll open up draft strategies, too.

Last year, most teams didn’t want to exit the third round without their ace. Early on this year, teams are OK waiting until the sixth, maybe even seventh round to get their ace while they stock up on hitting and perhaps open their  pitching staff with an elite closer instead. As with outfield, I’ll do two parts with starters going through the top 50 today and then 51 and beyond next time.

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Early ADP Thoughts – Outfield, II

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January 24, 2017

Outfield deserved two parts given its depth so we’re diving into part two today. There has been some shifting right around my cutoff point (50th OF) so keep in mind that I’m discussing their average draft slot at the time of writing. In fact, the first guy I’m mentioning today was actually at 52 when I did part one, but he has jumped up to 50.

Previous Editions:

OUTFIELD

  • Eric Thames (pick 212) returns from an obscenely successful run in Korea during which he averaged 40 HR and 20 SB a year with a .348/.463/.720 line including a 47 HR/40 SB/1.288 OPS season in 2015.
  • Projections throughout the industry are very aggressive on Thames with his being the rare case where Fans are lowest on him, but even if he “only” reached their level (.264 AVG/24 HR/6 SB) it’d be a nice season and well worth his average draft cost, though a big spring will cause his price to surge.

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – January 20th, 2017

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January 20, 2017

Chat transcript is below:

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