Opening the Mailbag, Volume I

Welcome to the first episode of the written mailbag! I’m feeling it out, seeing what works and what doesn’t. Ideally I’m going for questions that have broad-use strategies or ask about specific players so my answers are applicable for many instead of just one. The email to reach us is sleeperpod@gmail.com. Some will be better suited for the pod episodes (I’ve done one so far, but more are coming), others for here, and others still are best just answered by me directly to you.

Let me know what you think about this format and keep in mind, it’s not set in stone to be like this. I’m always answering as many questions as I can on Twitter, and in-season I think I’ll have some set time(s) each week where I’ll rapid-fire answer questions.

From Eddy: Who is your favorite sleeper pitcher and batter heading into the 2017 offseason? How come?

I’m not purposely picking two from the same team, but I’m going with Ryon Healy and Jharel Cotton, both Oakland Athletics. I think Healy will remain my favorite throughout winter, but Cotton could be usurped as I do my deep-dive research.

I’ve been gushing about Healy all offseason after really being turned onto him by Eno in September via this article and during a podcast discussion.  I got on board just in time as he ended up with a .964 OPS and 7 HRs in 122 September/October PA, easily his best month. Watching a handful of those games kept reminding me of another guy I was initially turned onto by Eno, Stephen Piscotty, who also made swing changes to unlock his power.

Piscotty showed his 63-game sample from 2015 was no fluke by nearly emulating it to a “t” in 153 games in 2016. His BABIP came down from a sky-high .372 to a more plausible .319 resulting in a lower batting average, but everything else held in place for an impressive first full season. I think we could see something very similar from Healy where his .352 BABIP comes down in a full season, but everything else holds. In fact, I could see him offsetting the BABIP loss with an improved BB% and lower K% (15.5% in MiLB).

Cotton could get overhyped a bit from being one of those sleepers that appears on so many lists that it ends up raising his price too much. I call ‘em “Wide Awake Sleepers”. He has a four-pitch mix, the best of which is a plus-plus changeup that has a 15 MPH split off of his solid 92 MPH fastball. He can get strikeouts with the entire arsenal, but the changeup and curve carry the load. Look at him mix it up for six punchouts against the Astros on September 19th:

Early ADP data has him as the 71st pitcher off the board at pick 266. My early rankings (which I haven’t published yet, I only shared my top-24 SPs) have him in the mid-60s. I did a mock on Wednesday evening (January 11th) and he was pick 191. I’m too lazy to count which number starter he was off the board, but eyeballing has me guessing it was somewhere in the 50s. He went ahead of teammate Sonny Gray which is a little much for me. I realize Gray was terrible and hurt, but 29.3 sparkling innings from Cotton isn’t enough to trump two-plus great seasons (491 IP of 2.88 ERA from 2013-15) from Gray.

From Kyle: What do you think the chances are of Cam Bedrosian locking down the closer’s job for the Angels and Ryan Dull doing the same for the A’s in 2017?

And how would you rank these two pitchers in regards to Sam Dyson from the Rangers?

By the way, both of my keeper leagues include Holds as a category along with Saves, adding value to set-up men. Considering that factor, what are your thoughts re: Bedrosian, Dull & Dyson?

I think Bedrosian has the much better shot of the two to close. The Holds aspect gives both some viability even without a ninth-inning role, but Bedrosian is the target between the two. Let me get to Dull briefly. I think he’s behind both Ryan Madson and then Sean Doolittle for the ninth and the biggest reason for that could simply be money.

Madson and Doolittle are both already paid while Dull is pre-arbitration. He was arguably the best of the trio in 2016, but not by such a margin that having both ahead of him for saves is at all indefensible. Plus, I think we’re seeing valuations of relievers change where you needn’t get saves to get paid so I think they stick with Dull and Doolittle as their righty-lefty firemen in the seventh and eighth innings, depending on matchups, and Madson closing it out in the ninth.

Bedrosian does have a paid Huston Street ahead of him as well, but where I think it differs is two-fold: 1) he’s been seen as the closer-of-the-future for a little while now (he is the son of a closer, after all) and 2) whether we believe they’re big contenders or not, the Angels are in much more of a win-now mode than the A’s so if Street is blowing winnable games or gets injury, as he’s wont to do, they’ll make the move.

There is supposed to be a competition for the role, but I think Street will have a substantial edge and get the job out of spring barring a real meltdown. However, the leash will be tight as this is his last guaranteed year ($9 mil, then a team option for $10 mil next year). I’d go Dyson, Bedrosian, and then Dull among the three.

From Robert: Thank you for your podcast and the ability to ask questions. How do you evaluate Alex Dickerson? Alex Chamberlain’s article from Rotographs compares him to some great players such as Ortiz, Arenado and Altuve. Others see him as a 4th outfielder at best. How do you evaluate him for 2017 and beyond?

Dickerson really did have a nice 285 PA season. As Chamberlain points out, his contact (15% K), power (.198 ISO), and discipline (9% BB) combination was tremendous. While he is a flyball hitter (0.9 GB/FB), he probably deserved a better batting average than his .257 given his profile. There were 89 players with at least a .198 ISO last year (min. 250 PA) and his strikeout rate was 10th-best. The guys ahead of him hit .300 with a .239 ISO on average. Given the raw power that he displayed with these skills, there’s growth potential here.

There is a question of playing time, though. The current outfield alignment has Travis Jankowski, Manuel Margot, and Hunter Refroe in starting roles. Jankowski is on the shakiest ground of the group, but he’s a left-handed batter just like Dickerson and while his bat isn’t as good, his glove is markedly better. With his defensive advantage, they may keep Jankowski on the strong side of the leftfield platoon after a .275/.368/.359 line versus righties last year. One of the two rookies not being ready is Dickerson’s best bet.

He can’t play center, but if Margot’s bat was slow to adjust to MLB pitching, Jankowski could slide over and make room for Dickerson. Renfroe’s big bat will likely get a long leash, especially after a flashy cup of coffee in September. You can’t make much of 36 PA, but he left an impression with some incredible pop that yielded some majestic home runs. Playing time seems to be Dickerson’s biggest road block, but he makes for a solid low-dollar gamble in NL-only leagues. Bet on the talent.

From Adam: In a keeper league (keep 4) with inflating salaries, how early do you start to propose trades? I notice Steamer 2017 projections were up but would you base any moves on those or would you let the free agency period play out first? I feel like I have the itch to make some moves but not sure if it is just gambling at this point.

This one came ahead of the Winter Meetings which changes the context some, but we still have moves to be made across the league so I think it’s still useful.

Projections are of course a guidepost, but not the end-all, be-all. I would never want to see a deal upended because someone got hung up on the fact that “the projections have 11 more HR coming your way”. So you’re always gambling with them at some point, but yes I do think there is some very risky gambling if you’re using projections with role-dependent players, particularly closers. Kelvin Herrera’s projection changed drastically overnight after the Wade Davis deal.

Another major factor in the offseason is that we can see playing time battles shaping up very differently which drastically alters how we feel about their projections. I’ll give the projections a look when I’m doing offseason trades, but I don’t let them sway me too much on either end of the spectrum. I wouldn’t cite them in trades if I were making the case on someone in trade talks.





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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Rainja182
7 years ago

I’m curios about your thoughts on Buxton, Soler and Alex Wood. If you, ya know, have time one day.