Yesterday, I chose to embarrass myself by reviewing my list of home run upside guys, or those my Pod Projections were more bullish on than Steamer. Spoiler alert if you haven’t read the post yet — I lost every battle. Given that the league HR/FB rate was at its lowest since 2015, I should have a better chance of tallying up some wins on the home run downside list. Perhaps I’ll just embarrass myself even further. Let’s find out.
Let’s continue reviewing my 2022 posts and move on to my series pitting my Pod Projections against the Steamer projections. Reluctantly, I’ll start with the hitters I projected for a greater number of home runs than Steamer. Having not looked at the names just yet as I type this, I have a feeling this ain’t going to go well! This season’s league 11.4% HR/FB rate was its lowest since 2015, so a list of guys with upside likely worked out far worse than a list of guys with downside!
Today, I’ll review the starting pitcher Pod Projection I shared at the beginning of March. Logan Webb enjoyed a big breakout in 2021, with strikeouts, good control, and enough ground balls to fill a worm’s worst nightmare. So what did he do for an encore and how did his performance compare to the projections? Let’s find out.
Let’s break from reviewing my prediction lists where half the players discussed got injured and switch to reviewing one of my 2022 Pod Projections…of a player who also got hurt. At the end of Feb, I shared a detailed breakdown of my underlying metric forecasts and overall projection line for former uber prospect Wander Franco. Let’s see how he performed compared to my forecasts, and the computer systems.
Yesterday, I discussed six 2021 fantasy breakouts and reviewed how they followed up in 2022. Naturally, half (3) of them earned within $10 of their 2021 values, while the other half failed to. Let’s now turn our attention to five of 2021’s busts. Did any of them rebound in 2022?
Let’s continue reviewing my preseason calls and predictions by checking in on six hitters that broke out in 2021. In 2021, these hitters all earned more than $20 in value greater than what they earned in 2020. To qualify as “REAL”, they merely had to earn within $10 of their 2021 earnings. If their 2022 earnings declined by at least $10 from their 2021 marks, they would be deemed a “BUST”. Let’s find out how this group performed.
Yesterday, I reviewed my bold hitter league leaders and actually got one right! Now let’s flip over to the pitching bold league leaders. Do I get another right or will my horrible injury luck get the best of me this time?
Each year, in addition to my bold predictions, I also predict the league leaders in each of the five traditional fantasy categories, in each league, and for both hitters and pitchers. Let’s begin by reviewing my bold hitter league leaders.
In addition to my starting pitcher poll comparing 1st and 2nd half SIERA marks, I also polled you fine readers during the all-star break about hitters. The hitter poll pitted the 10 greatest xwOBA overperformers against the 10 most significant underperformers. I asked you which group would post a higher second half wOBA and which range each group’s wOBA would fall into.
During the all-star break, I once again polled you on which group of 10 starting pitchers would post a lower ERA during the second half, and which ERA range each group’s aggregate would fall into. Let’s now review the results.
