2022 Bold Hitter League Leaders — A Review

Each year, in addition to my bold predictions, I also predict the league leaders in each of the five traditional fantasy categories, in each league, and for both hitters and pitchers. Let’s begin by reviewing my bold hitter league leaders.

American League

Batting AverageSteven Kwan | .298 AVG

Kwan’s .298 batting average ranked ninth among qualified AL batters, so although he didn’t lead the league, this was a clear “in spirit” win, as he turned out to be quite the solid fantasy contributor. His skills scream strong batting average, as he rarely swings and misses (just a 3.1% SwStk%, the 2nd lowest in baseball!), resulting in a single digit strikeout rate, and a better than average batted ball profile heavier on line drives than the league.

Sure, there’s not much power here, but the 19 steals was a nice surprise, especially considering he had only swiped 20 bases throughout his entire minor league career. There is risk here though, as a string of poor BABIP luck could shine a light on his lack of power and potentially cost him playing time.

Home RunsByron Buxton | 28 HR

Obviously, the boldest part of this prediction was that Buxton would finally remain healthy enough to compete for the AL home run title. Surprise! He failed to again. Yet, even with just 340 ABs, he managed to knock 28 home runs. It wasn’t because he increased his HR/FB rate or even maintained it — his mark actually fell a bit, but still remained in the mid-20% range. Instead, he posted a career best FB%, which ranked fourth in baseball among hitters with at least 350 PAs. While those flies are great for his power, they are a BABIP killer, and his BABIP declined to just .244, well below his career average. I think I’m officially done expecting anything close to a full season from him.

RBIAnthony Rendon | 24 RBI

Well gosh, I do have a knack for picking players who end up missing a significant chunk of the season to injury, don’t I?! Rendon finished another injury plagued season, recording just 193 PAs. He failed to rebound off last season’s down offensive performance, as his power has disappeared. At age 32, it’s anyone’s guess whether his power returns and we see some sort of rebound or he’s in his decline phase and is relegated to the bottom tier of shallow league corner men.

RunsWander Franco | 46 RUN

Cool, three picks in a row whose seasons were ravaged by injury…I’m on a roll! Franco recorded just 344 PA, but was seemingly following up well to his rookie campaign. He cut down on his swings and misses, pushing his strikeout rate into single digits, upped his LD%, and increased his maxEV. He even swiped six more bases, making him a more valuable fantasy contributor when healthy.

Remember he’ll just be entering his age 22 season next year. His skills are exciting and all that his 2022 may have done was reduce his 2023 draft day cost. I want in.

Stolen BasesJorge Mateo | 35 SB

HOLY GUACAMOLE! Mateo actually beat out teammate Cedric Mullins II to lead the AL in stolen bases! It’s rare I actually get one right, so this is cool. Too bad I didn’t own him in any leagues. Mateo essentially pulled an Adalberto Mondesi, hitting 13 homers and swiping 35 bags, if the latter would ever stay healthy for a full season again. It’s too bad Mateo also struck out often, rarely walked, and hit toward the bottom of a weak lineup. That resulted in just a .221 average and meh runs scored and RBI totals. So he was about neutral in three categories and a killer in one, making him a true one category standout. But those steals were gold and made his owners quite the profit.

Unfortunately, a .281 wOBA means he’ll remain a playing time risk. But the Orioles rode him all year this season, so it’s possible they continue to avoid scoring runs as best they can by starting him every day again next year.

National League

Batting AverageKris Bryant | .303 AVG

Really?! Bryant is now the fourth out of only six players reviewed so far who missed a huge chunk of the season due to injury. I guess my injury luck in these prediction articles matches my injury luck on my fantasy teams! I was excited to see what Bryant could do playing half his games at Coors Field, but we only got to see him there for 111 PAs and he failed to hit even one home run! He did bat .323 though, and .306 overall, which was a career high. So the idea here was correct, he just didn’t play enough to come close to qualifying for the batting title.

If it sounds like he’s fully healthy entering next season and he comes at what I would expect is a reduced cost, then I’m all in.

Home RunsRandal Grichuk | 19 HR

I was counting on a Coors Field HR/FB rate bump, and while it somewhat did happen, as he was far better at home (18.8% home mark vs 8.7% away), his home rate merely settled where his overall rate has generally been from 2015-2020. He would have needed to increase his HR/FB rate at home to above 20% to have a chance at leading the league in home runs. But the biggest problem came during his away games, where he posted just a single digit HR/FB rate. I was not expecting that! That dragged down his overall HR/FB rate to represent just a minor rebound from his low 2021 mark. Also capping his home run potential was a career low FB%. Coors does reduce fly ball rates and we can see the effect in his home/away splits, where he posted just a 32.1% FB% at home, versus a 41.6% mark in away parks.

RBILuke Voit | 69 RBI

While Voit did miss some time to injury, he still managed to record a career high number of PAs. It didn’t matter though, as he recorded just 69 RBI. That was also a career high, but far below what you might expect from a middle of the order power hitter with over 500 PAs.

Voit posted his lowest HR/FB rate since his 2017 debut over a small sample. It’s surprising though given his healthy maxEV and elite Barrel%. Heading into his age 32 season and coming off just a .311 wOBA, he could be at risk of losing playing time next year.

RunsTrent Grisham | 58 RUN

The expectation here was that Grisham would be the Padres regular leadoff hitter against right-handers, but instead, he spent the majority of his time in the eight hole. He struck out at a career worst clip, crushing his OBP, which fell below .300 for the first time. That would make it impossible for him to be a strong runs scored contributor and he was no longer an option for the Padres to hit at the top of the order.

Stolen BasesNick Madrigal | 3 SB

Injuries, injuries, I love injuries! Madrigal’s appearance here now means that half this list missed a big chunk of the season to injury. How is my luck so bad picking these players?! Of course, even a full season wouldn’t have gotten him anywhere close to leading the league in steals. I’m not sure what happened to his willingness to steal. In 2019 in the minors, he stole 35 bases. In around the same numbers of PAs in the Majors so far, he has stolen just six bases, even with a perfectly solid .336 OBP. His fantasy promise came from a potentially high batting average and steals. The batting average has been solid, but ignoring his injury history, he has done little in the counting stats. He’s now become a poor man’s Luis Arraez.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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Bruce Schwindt
1 year ago

Wow this was bad luck for you this year. At least after I review your choices for next year I will know who to avoid.