Poll 2022: Which Group of Pitchers Performs Better? A Review

During the all-star break, I once again polled you on which group of 10 starting pitchers would post a lower ERA during the second half, and which ERA range each group’s aggregate would fall into. Let’s now review the results.

Below are the aggregate averages of the two groups through the pre-all-star break period from the original poll article. Remember that you were voting solely on ERA, all other metrics and fantasy stats were irrelevant. Group A was composed of the SIERA overperformers and B, the underperformers.

The poll results were as follows:

So 57% of you believed the SIERA overperformers, Group A, would post a lower 2nd half ERA, even with weaker 1st half skills than Group B. In past years, I don’t recall the gap being this large between the two groups. In some seasons, the underperforming group actually garnered a higher percentage of the votes! So it’s definitely not consistent from year to year, which leads me to believe that many of you are looking at the names to make your decision, rather than the underlying skills and stats.

The majority of you voted that Group A would finish with a 2nd half ERA at least a full run above their 1st half ERA, but still outperform their 1st half SIERA. That seems completely fair and the right amount of regression mixed with the acknowledgement of the possibility of actual “luck” metric skill ownership.

It was a similar pattern for the vote on where Group B’s ERA would fall over the 2nd half, with the majority voting between 4.00 and 4.49, which represented a nice improvement versus the group’s 1st half ERA, but above their SIERA mark.

Now on to the second half results.

Let’s start with the answers to the poll questions. Group A did indeed post a lower ERA in the second half with a 3.52 mark versus Group B’s still ugly 4.73 mark. While Group A still outperformed Group B, the gap between the two group’s ERAs narrowed significantly. And once again, Group B did post better underlying skills as their SIERA finished .20 lower, a slightly larger difference than over the 1st half.

So the 57% of you that voted for Group A to outperform Group B in ERA in the 2nd half were correct. The 43.5% of you that voted that Group A’s ERA would fall between 3.50 and 3.99 were also correct! So far, the majority has gone 2 for 2. Finally, only 5.5% of you voted that Group B’s ERA would land between 4.50 and 4.99. Yup, this group was far worse than expected!

Yet again, Group B posted a higher strikeout rate, but a massively higher HR/FB rate and BABIP imploded their ERA.

From the overperformers group, both Tony Gonsolin and Alek Manoah continued to laugh at the prospect of regression. This may very well cause owners to severely overvalue the two in drafts next year, especially Manoah given his former top prospect status. With a meaningful drop in strikeout rate and decline in SwStk%, his underlying skills were a bit disappointing, but another suppressed BABIP and HR/FB rate, plus an inflated LOB% saved him. He’s now done that for two straight seasons, though it’s been just 308.1 innings. Does he truly own some better than average “luck” metric skills? It’s far too early to tell, but it’s hard to believe a .245 career BABIP is anywhere close to his true talent level.

Michael Wacha, Marco Gonzales, Taijuan Walker, and Joe Ryan all fell hard in the 2nd half, with the middle two experiencing so much regression that they became free agent fodder in most formats. Wacha and Ryan earned significantly less value during that time, but still held some streaming appeal depending on your league format.

Moving on to the underperformers group, incredible only Hunter Greene outperformed his SIERA during the 2nd half. His luck reaaaaaally turned around, as his HR/FB rate went from an absurd 19.5% to a microscopic 3.2%, while his strikeout rate surged. He’s going to be an extremely popular “sleeper” next year whose price is going to rise so much that he’s no longer a sleeper.

What happened to you Patrick Corbin? It’s getting harder and harder to remember how good he was back in 2018 and 2019. Gosh, this was certainly a year to forget for Lucas Giolito. I held onto him all season in two leagues, every week expecting this to be the one his luck turns around and he pitches like the guy I paid for. It never happened. His four-seam velocity dropped by 1.3 MPH, causing a decline in both SwStk% and strikeout rate. I’ll see how his velocity is during spring training before touting him as a strong rebound candidate you could potentially roster for cheap.

Injuries limited Trevor Rogers to just 107 innings, but man did his skills deteriorate as his changeup went from elite to just merely average. With stable velocity, I’m not sure yet what to think of him next year.

Both Alexes, Cobb and Wood, posted similar ERA, SIERA, and differential marks during the 1st half, but they diverged dramatically in the 2nd half. Cobb’s luck neutralized, while Wood’s failed to, thanks to a near doubling of his HR/FB rate, which helped bring down his LOB% to below 60%, the lowest of all Group B pitchers.