2022 Pod vs Steamer — HR Upside

Every year, I pit my Pod Projections (now available!) against the Steamer projections in various categories. Today, I’m going to continue the annual smackdowns by calculating AB/HR rates and then extrapolating them over 600 at-bats. At that point, I’ll compare how many home runs each system is forecasting, given a 600 at-bat projection. I’ll start by sharing the names of hitters Pod is projecting for significantly more home runs than Steamer.

Before diving into the names, let’s discuss the current situation. At the moment, it’s unwise to take current playing time projections as gospel given the significant number of still unsigned free agents as the lockout continues on. However, ratio projections shouldn’t change much, if at all, except perhaps for those aforementioned free agents, depending on which teams they sign with. I do not manually project home runs, or even AB/HR. Instead, I forecast the underlying drivers of raw home run totals, such as HR/FB rate, strikeout rate, FB%, and at-bats. Those variables are then thrown into a blender, which produces a home run forecast. While these raw home run forecasts might change when spring training ultimately gets under way, the AB/HR calculation should remain the same for players already signed with a team. That means it still makes sense to compare my AB/HR projections (and other ratios) to Steamer’s.

welp, I never would have guessed that I was so much more optimistic about Seth Brown’s home run potential than Steamer! Brown enjoyed a breakout power half season last year and his xHR/FB rate was close to his actual mark, falling just a bit short. He also posted a 23.6% HR/FB rate at Triple-A in 2019, so he’s shown this power before. It would seem that a lot of the projected outperformance by Pod is due to my significantly better strikeout rate forecast. That’s because of my xK% equation that suggests Brown deserved an actual strikeout rate of just 26.6% last year. He might have hidden upside there, which would boost his home run total.

Man, was Darin Ruf one of the best comeback stories last year or what?! He did record a solid 100 plate appearances in 2020 after playing in the KBO league from 2017-2019, but then had his best offensive performance last year in a half season’s worth of PAs. That included some big power, though not fully supported by his xHR/FB rate. That said, it would appear much of my projected outperformance is due to my FB% projection. There’s no way of knowing since Steamer’s FB% projection isn’t published, but I’m assuming that Ruf will take advantage of his power by raising his FB% back toward his career average. It’s possible Steamer is projecting closer to his lower 2021 rate. Ruf makes for a nice buy in deep leagues, assuming the DH is implemented in the NL.

It’s difficult for me to quit Sam Hilliard. I mean, big power and speed, all while calling Coors Field your home park?! I’m really not sure exactly what’s driving the Pod optimism compared to Steamer here, because my projected strikeout rate is actually worse than Steamer’s, while my HR/FB projection of 26% is well below Hilliard’s career average of 29.7%. I’m also projecting an identical FB%. It must simply be a lower Steamer projected HR/FB rate, which would make sense given his xHR/FB rate outperformance, but he’s posted HR/FB rates around my projection during every stint since 2019.

Mitch Garver’s HR/FB partially rebounded after an injury shortened 2020 season, but his 2021 xHR/FB rate was actually the highest of his career. Steamer is projecting a slightly higher strikeout rate and may not be buying his 2021 HR/FB rate rebound as much as I am.

Here we go again, for the third straight season, Mike Yastrzemski makes my HR upside list! I have been closer each of the two years so far, can I make it a three-peat? I’m projecting a slight rebound in HR/FB rate, but still just below his short career average, with a strikeout rate worse than his last two seasons, but still just better than his career mark. With almost identical strikeout rate projections, either Steamer just isn’t buying Yastrzemski’s HR/FB rate potential or is projecting a larger FB% decline than I am. He may be undervalued yet again.

Garrett Hampson with home run upside?! For the first time on this list, it’s almost certainly a HR/FB projection difference. My 12% forecast is well above his 9.8% career average. Why? Because Hampson’s power has been blossoming and you may not have even realized it! His xHR/FB rate in 2020 was a huge 19.4%, which means he massively underperformed. Then last year, he posted a 13.2% xHR/FB rate, well below his 2020 mark, but still well above his actual mark. It’s certainly possibly he’ll be a consistent underperformer, but the sample sizes have been too small to determine that yet, and it’s unlikely anyone would consistently underperform by that much. He’s got stealth 20/20 potential depending on his playing time.

I guess that’s how I ended up with Brandon Lowe in my LABR mixed leagues — because my projection is more optimistic than everyone else’s! Surprisingly, Steamer is projected a better strikeout rate than I am, so it must come down to a significantly lower HR/FB rate. His xHR/FB rate did drop last year to a three-season low, but he had posted marks of at least 23.5% for the previous two seasons.

Adam Duvall?! You would think a veteran like him would be easy to project, with all systems forecasting similar rates. I guess that hasn’t been the case, at least when pitting Pod against Steamer. Again, it’s not totally obvious what’s driving the difference here. Steamer is projecting a slightly worse strikeout rate, but my HR/FB rate projection of 19% would be his lowest since 2018. Is Steamer really forecasting significantly worse than that? So perhaps it’s the FB%, a rate Duvall has been among the league leaders in throughout his entire career. I’m at 52%, but perhaps Steamer is a bit lower, and below 50%, but there’s no way to know for sure.

It was a disappointing season for Bobby Dalbec, and especially in the early going when it’s likely most of his fantasy owners bailed. He was significantly better over the second half of the season though, so patient owners were eventually rewarded with stats they expected to accumulate over the first half as well. I am easily the most optimistic about his strikeout rate at 30.5%, but that’s entirely due to his significantly better ability to make contact back in Double-A and Triple-A in 2019. Sometimes it just takes young players a year to adjust, and after disappointing, they produce as initially expected the following season.

The risk here is the presence of 16th overall prospect Triston Casas. If Dalbec gets off to a slow start again, he might lose his starting job and either return to the minors, or become a bench bat.