Are 2021’s Busts This Season’s Rebounds? A Review

Yesterday, I discussed six 2021 fantasy breakouts and reviewed how they followed up in 2022. Naturally, half (3) of them earned within $10 of their 2021 values, while the other half failed to. Let’s now turn our attention to five of 2021’s busts. Did any of them rebound in 2022?

It’s a clean sweep! The four players who played in 2022 that were busts in 2021 after a big 2020 season failed to earn within $7 of their 2020 value. Of course, that doesn’t necessarily make them “still a bust” in your league, as that’s dependent on your leaguemates’ valuations and each player’s cost, which is something I can’t possibly know.

Mookie Betts

Betts endured injury in 2021 which cut into his value, but his HR/FB rate also fell significantly from his 2020 career high over a small sample during the short season. He also swiped a career low number of bases. So 2021 wasn’t what his owners paid for.

With still strong skills and better health, you figure Betts would undoubtedly rebound in 2022, but would he get back to his 2020 level or finish in between? He mostly did rebound though fell a tad short of the arbitrary “within $7 of 2020” value, which technically made him STILL A BUST. That said, he likely still earned back his cost, or at least very close to it, in the majority of leagues, so he probably wasn’t really a bust.

The most important part of his 2022 season was that he stole just 12 bases, so after swiping just 10 in 2021, it looks like a low teens total might now become the new norm.

Original Verdict: REBOUND | Actual Verdict: STILL A BUST

Michael Conforto

After a disappointing 2021 season, Conforto failed to sign with a team during spring training, and then word spread he had injured his shoulder, which he ultimately decided to undergo surgery on in late April, ending his chances of playing this year.

DJ LeMahieu

After an unbelievable short 2020 season with a career best 27% HR/FB rate to go alone with a .364 batting average, LeMahieu was a massive disappointment in 2021 when regression brought him back to Earth. His HR/FB rate slid back into single digits, while his BABIP fell to just over .300. With an uncertain playing time outlook this year, would he even record enough PAs to give his fantasy value a chance to rebound?

The answer was no. He finished with just 541 PAs, which could have maaaaaaaybe been enough to come close to $17+, but he wasn’t much better in those ABs than he was in 2021. His HR/FB rate rebounded slightly and back into double digits to finish just above his career average, but his BABIP fell to a career low, and just the second time below .300. I’m actually surprised his stat line generated positive value at all, as it seems pretty replacement level in a 12-team mixed league to me! Heading into his age 34 season, odds are his 2019 and 2020 season end up being the big blip and not a level he’ll come close to again.

Original Verdict: STILL A BUST | Actual Verdict: STILL A BUST

José Abreu

Abreu was incredible over the short 2020 season as his HR/FB rate and ISO marks skyrocketed to career best out of nowhere. Predictably, he regressed back to his historical averages in 2021, but that represented a massive decline in fantasy value.

In 2022, he posted a career low strikeout rate, but his power disappeared! His HR/FB rate slipped into single digits for the first time, and the first time it fell below his previous low of 14.8%. His ISO finished at just .141, only the second time it fell below .200. What happened?! His maxEV was fine, and while his Barrel% declined back into single digits after three straight low-mid-teen marks, it was still higher than his 2015-2018 seasons when he posted mid-to-high teen HR/FB rates.

He’ll be entering his age 36 season next year, but I’m still betting on his power rebounding. The rest of the skills remain stable, so he might actually be a profitable buy next year.

Original Verdict: STILL A BUST | Actual Verdict: STILL A BUST

Wil Myers

Myers also took the short 2020 season opportunity to showcase career best power skills with his first HR/FB rate over 20% and an ISO over .300. In 2021, his power reverted right back to where it had been previously, as if 2020 never happened.

What did 2022 have in store? Lots of time missed due to injury, limiting him to just 286 PAs, along with the second highest strikeout rate of his career, and his second lowest HR/FB rate and ISO as well. So he only played half a season and when he did take the field, he wasn’t any good.

Original Verdict: STILL A BUST | Actual Verdict: STILL A BUST

Overall, I guess I did pretty well here, as I called everyone except Betts “still a bust”, and all did remain a bust according to my arbitrary rules. Betts was probably a spirit win like those bold predictions that were technically wrong, but directionally correct.