In mid-May, I reviewed a group of hitters who had most underperformed their Statcast calculated xwOBA marks. While we all acknowledge that xwOBA isn’t perfect, it’s the best all-encompassing estimator we have, so it’s a good star to identifying players who are underperforming and overperforming. Now, I want to find out how these xwOBA underperformers ended up doing over the rest of the season. Did their wOBA marks rebound close to their early season xwOBA marks? Did their skills improve or decline so their rest of season xwOBA marks varied, making the RoS and early season comparison apples to oranges? I’m always curious how my lists turn out, so let’s dive in.

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Just three days after Jacob deGrom signed with the Rangers, it was reported that the Mets agreed to a two-year, $86.66 million contract with Justin Verlander. That’s a lot of money for a 40 and 41 year old pitcher! Ignoring his age and the possibility of performance decline, let’s consult the park factors to determine how the move from Minute Maid Park to Citi Field might affect his results.

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The hot stove is in full swing! Yesterday, fantasy superstar Trea Turner agreed to an 11-year, $300 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies. Finally, Philadelphians will learn whether Turner prefers Geno’s Steaks, or its competitor across the street, Pat’s King of Steaks. I took a weekend trip to Philly last year and tried neither, but did highly enjoy a version from Woodrow’s sandwich shop that was topped with truffle whiz. If you’re a fan of truffles (not the chocolates!), this is the pick. So now Turner joins his third team and a new home ballpark. Let’s consult the park factors to find out how his performance might be affected.

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On Friday, Jacob deGrom signed a five year, lots of money contract with the Texas Rangers, where the smell of smoked meat wafts through the air. Let’s compare the park factors of his previous New York home, Citi Field, with his new Arlington home, Globe Life Field and find out how his performance might be affected, if all else was equal (which it never is). Since we don’t need to worry about the DH only existing in the AL anymore, it makes for a much easier comparison than in years past.

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Just as important as monitoring fastball velocities for spikes to identify potential breakouts, velocity declines might hint at potential injury and/or a drop in performance. So let’s now review the six pitchers who experienced early season velocity declines versus 2021 and find out if their velocities rebounded.

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Aside from discussing starting pitcher fastball velocity surgers at the beginning of the season, I also did the same for relief pitchers. In mono league formats, relievers could generate positive value, even without recording any saves, with strong ratios, and a high strikeout rate. Identifying breakouts early might allow you to pick up a reliever for free and shield a pitcher slot from ratio damage by a weak starter.

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Let’s continue reviewing how the first start fastball velocity surgers performed over the rest of the season. Did they maintain their velocity spikes and post a higher strikeout rate or did their gains fade?

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Early in the season when we have a limited sample size to work with, I like to investigate those metrics that stabilize the quickest. Fastball velocity is one of those metrics. Since velocity is highly correlated with strikeout rate, a spike in velocity might hint at a strikeout rate surge, and perhaps a breakout. I originally identified six starting pitchers that enjoyed a velocity bump in their first start versus their 2021 marks. Let’s see if they were able to maintain those increases over the rest of the season.

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In early April, I discussed three less heralded prospects that entered the season with starting jobs and used bulleted lists to share what I liked and didn’t like about each rookie. Let’s now review my likes and dislikes versus what actually transpired. Below each of my original bullet points will be an update in italics describing what ended up happening that relates to that bullet point.

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Let’s finish my review of my imaginary NFBC rosters with a team of hitters that weren’t purchased in a single NFBC auction in March. I had 110 players to choose from to build this elite squad. Let’s find out how they performed!

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