2022 Pod Projections: Wander Franco — A Review

Let’s break from reviewing my prediction lists where half the players discussed got injured and switch to reviewing one of my 2022 Pod Projections…of a player who also got hurt. At the end of Feb, I shared a detailed breakdown of my underlying metric forecasts and overall projection line for former uber prospect Wander Franco. Let’s see how he performed compared to my forecasts, and the computer systems.

Plate Appearances: 645 Forecasted | 344 Actual

Writing about hitters who ultimately get injured is a special skill of mine, so I apologize to all his owners for choosing Franco for a Pod Projection breakdown this year. Next year, if there’s a player you cannot afford to lose, let me know, and I’ll make sure his name stays far away from any of my posts.

Franco first missed nearly a month after straining his right quad, then just two weeks later, went down with a right wrist injury that cost him about two more months. He did hit second the majority of the season as I expected, so would have flirted with 700 PAs if he remained healthy all year.

BB%: 8.2% Forecasted | 7.6% Actual

Franco’s walk rate actually declined to the lowest of his professional career. My forecast was solely based on him maturing and improving his plate patience with the rookie season under his belt. It didn’t happen. The problem here isn’t so much a lack of patience, it’s that he makes such darn good contact! If every time you swing, you put the ball in play, you’ll never get to ball four unless you’re facing the wildest pitcher imaginable! Eventually, his strikeout rate is going to rise, and his walk rate will likely do so as well.

K%: 12.8% Forecasted | 9.6% Actual

This is just ridiculous for a 21-year-old. It’s the third lowest strikeout rate among hitters with at least 300 PAs. Though, his 6.1% SwStk% was slightly less impressive, ranking 17th. But even that’s impressive and proof that he hasn’t been overmatched. It’s not going to be hard for him to become a major batting average contributor with such a low strikeout rate.

GB%/LD%/FB%: 45% / 20% / 35% Forecasted | 44.2% / 24.6% / 31.2% Actual

Franco traded fly balls for line drives, which should be ideal for his BABIP, but reduce his home run potential, assuming all else equal. It’s surprising to see such a strong LD%, as he wasn’t much of a line drive hitter in the minors, actually never even reaching 20%. His two best professional marks have actually come in the Majors! I’ll bet some of those added liners revert back into fly balls next year.

BABIP: .305 Forecasted | .290 Actual

This was disappointing. Franco had posted BABIP marks of at least .318 at every minor league stop, and even posted an above average LD% this year. So it’s surprising to see he finished sub-.300. I look forward to calculating his xBABIP.

The disappointing BABIP reduces his perceived batting average potential. Ya know what that means? Profit possibilities during next season’s drafts!

HR/FB Ratio: 10% Forecasted | 6.7% Actual

This was disappointing too, but not too surprising given the leaguewide decline in the metric. Franco is your classic super young prospect who is forecasted to grow into above average power, but the question remains when “the leap” actually occurs. He has never shown a whole lot of home run power during his minor league career, peaking at just a 13.7% HR/FB rate. However, he’s posted stronger doubles and triples rates, which provides optimism that one of these coming years will result in a big power breakout.

Runs and RBI: 96 and 76 Forecasted | 46 and 33 Actual

Obviously, he wasn’t going to come anywhere near any projections having played about half a season. But if you double his totals, you come pretty darn close. He’d still fall short, but that’s due to the disappointing BABIP and HR/FB rate. He should remain at a similar ratio of each counting stats for as long as he hits mostly second, with the occasional start in the three hole.

SB: 11 Forecasted | 8 Actual

Franco disappointed on the basepaths during his 2021 debut, swiping just two bases. I forecasted a jump this season and ended up being right about it, even if he did pace for above my projection. The best news here is that he stole eight bases without even being caught. Historically, Franco had been quite ineffective when trying to steal a base. In his minor league career, he has gone just 27 for 49, succeeding just 55.1% of the time. That’s not good. So to see him swipe eight bases in eight attempts is a big step forward. It’ll ensure he has a green light moving forward as long as he doesn’t regress.

Below is my final projected hitting line, along with the other systems for comparison:

Obviously, all the forecasting systems were wrong on the counting stats due to Franco’s missed time. I therefore decided to average out his PA projections from all the systems, excluding ZiPS, since that was an outlier oddly projecting about 100 fewer PAs than the average of the rest. I then paced out his counting stats over the 635 PA average to better compare.

We were all too optimistic on Franco’s batting average, as you can see the BABIP projections listed last all sat between .303 and .309. That’s a remarkably tight range for 21-year-old sophomore hitter. So he finished well below all expectations. However, he did manage to offset some of that disappointing BABIP by striking out at only a single digit clip. No one saw that coming, though THE BAT/THE BAT X came the closest. That system actually projected a strikeout rate well below everyone else.

Moving back to the counting stats, every system projected between 17 and 19 home runs, with ZiPS at 16 solely because of the lower PA forecast. Franco really disappointed there, pacing for just 11 dingers. While some of the systems ended up pretty close on runs scored, we were all off on his RBI. Some of that was due to the disappointing power, and some due to the fact that the Rays’ offense just wasn’t very good, ranking 20th in baseball in OBP.

We now move on to steals, where I was actually closest at 11, and three other systems projected 10. It’s unlikely he would have actually reached his pace though, as you would imagine he would get caught stealing at some point and finish closer to the low double digits than the mid-teens.

Finally, I ended up being the most optimistic on his walk rate, which was a mistake. Only THE BAT/THE BAT X was with me at 8% and higher. That rate should follow his strikeout rate, so if he strikes out more next year, his walk rate will probably rise as well.

Overall, Franco did a little bit of everything, without standing out anywhere. It’s the type of profile that’s typically undervalued and less exciting, and one you always feel you need to upgrade, despite delivering value. Given his age and variety of strong skills, I definitely want to continue investing next year.