2022 Pod vs Steamer — HR Downside — A Review

Yesterday, I chose to embarrass myself by reviewing my list of home run upside guys, or those my Pod Projections were more bullish on than Steamer. Spoiler alert if you haven’t read the post yet — I lost every battle. Given that the league HR/FB rate was at its lowest since 2015, I should have a better chance of tallying up some wins on the home run downside list. Perhaps I’ll just embarrass myself even further. Let’s find out.

HR Downside
Name Pod AB/HR Steamer AB/HR Pod HR – 600 AB Steamer HR – 600 AB Diff Actual AB/HR Actual HR – 600 AB Winner
Oneil Cruz 27.0 19.9 22.2 30.2 -8.0 19.5 30.8 Steamer
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 14.7 12.3 40.9 48.7 -7.8 19.9 30.1 Pod
Giancarlo Stanton 15.8 13.3 37.9 45.0 -7.1 12.8 46.7 Steamer
Orlando Arcia 38.7 27.6 15.5 21.7 -6.2 23.2 25.8 Steamer
Spencer Torkelson 18.8 15.8 31.9 37.9 -6.1 45.0 13.3 Pod
Austin Barnes 44.3 30.8 13.6 19.5 -5.9 22.4 26.8 Steamer
Josh Naylor 30.6 23.7 19.6 25.4 -5.7 22.5 26.7 Steamer
Cam Gallagher 65.9 40.5 9.1 14.8 -5.7 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Pod
Keibert Ruiz 26.2 21.0 22.9 28.6 -5.7 56.3 10.7 Pod
Juan Soto 16.4 14.4 36.7 41.8 -5.1 19.4 30.9 Pod

It was a draw! Both systems won five players. That’s not exactly the results I was hoping for, as the leaguewide decline in HR/FB rate should have given me the advantage when naming hitters with home run downside. Of course, the sample size of just 10 players is tiny, so the results might look different if extended to all hitters with over 200 ABs, for example. This was a very mixed list of hitters, with true superstars, former top prospects, and bench bats, with everything in between.

In my original post, I questioned why Steamer was so optimistic about Oneil Cruz’s strikeout rate. Turns out, the system was very wrong, but still managed to nearly nail his 600 AB home run pace. That’s because Cruz posted the second highest HR/FB rate of his professional career, thanks to a crazy high 122.4 MPH maxEV. He also posted the second highest FB% of his professional career. So he hit more flies than expected and more of those flies went over the wall. Duh. I don’t know how he managed to strike out so often given his SwStk%, which typically matches with a sub-30% strikeout rate.

Both systems overshot Vladimir Guerrero Jr., meaning I was closest here. His HR/FB rate and FB% both declined off his 2021 breakout, which combined to make him a bit of a home run disappointment. I think he certainly has another 2021 in him at some point, but I’m definitely not willing to pay for that upside.

I seem to always be bearish on Giancarlo Stanton, and Steamer crushed me for it. He got his HR/FB rate back above 30% for the third time over any reasonable number of ABs, plus raised his FB% to the highest its been since 2017. Given the high HR/FB rate, that increased FB% was really key. It’s extremely difficult to predict where a batter’s FB% is going to land, but plays a big role in their final home run total.

I have no idea how Orlando Arcia ended up on this list and I didn’t even discuss him in my original article. Clearly, Steamer’s crystal ball was working, as he ended up posting the highest HR/FB rate of his career, to go along with the highest FB% of his career. How could we have seen that coming?!

Wow was Spencer Torkelson a disappointment. Obviously, neither system was anywhere close, so this gives me a cheap win. Given my original article comments, I nailed the fact that Steamer was too bullish on his strikeout rate, and I was closer than every other projection system. But of course, the biggest driver of the disappointing home run total was the single digit HR/FB rate. This for a guy with 55/70 Game Power and 70/70 Raw Power scouting grades and a 111.5 maxEV. If nothing else, it gives those that still have faith to pick him up much cheaper in drafts next year.

Yup, leave it up to the 32-year-old Austin Barnes to post the second highest HR/FB rate of his career, the highest FB% of his career, and the second lowest strikeout rate of his career, while he’s on a home run downside list. Like, c’mon!

Josh Naylor got a late start to the season as he recovered from injury, but posted a career best HR/FB rate and FB%. I’m honestly not sure how Steamer keeps predicting these career best marks accurately!

Cam Gallagher hit 0 home runs over 42 ABs, so I got his downside call right, lol!

I actually liked Keibert Ruiz’s skill set, so his appearance here wasn’t a representation of my overall feelings on his fantasy potential. I was skeptical of his FB% remaining over 40% though, and I was correct thinking it should dip below that level. Aside from the FB%, he did still disappoint by posting just a 5.5% HR/FB rate. I love the contact ability, but his power has to show up at some point to become a strong catcher option.

Juan Soto was a good call here, though I obviously didn’t forecast a sub-20% HR/FB rate. He did partially offset the dip by boosting his FB% to the second highest mark of his career. It now makes it difficult to predict next year’s FB% as it has either settled around 37% or mid-28%, which is a big difference. I think the projections too heavily weighed his small sample elite 2020 when he posted a 36.1% HR/FB rate. I actually can’t believe how disappointing Soto was for fantasy owners, between his massive decline in BABIP and resulting batting average, and drop in RBI. Will he actually come at a value next season?!





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

Comments are closed.