2022 Pod vs Steamer — HR Upside — A Review

Let’s continue reviewing my 2022 posts and move on to my series pitting my Pod Projections against the Steamer projections. Reluctantly, I’ll start with the hitters I projected for a greater number of home runs than Steamer. Having not looked at the names just yet as I type this, I have a feeling this ain’t going to go well! This season’s league 11.4% HR/FB rate was its lowest since 2015, so a list of guys with upside likely worked out far worse than a list of guys with downside!

As a reminder, the comparison here is for a 600 AB pace, so the effect of playing time and injuries is eliminated. I wanted this to strictly be about home run forecasting over the playing time projected so one system doesn’t benefit from an injury just because it was more pessimistic on the home run total.

It was a clean sweep! Bbbbbbbut, not the good kind. This is quite embarrassing, but not entirely unexpected. Obviously, this is the first time I’ve reviewed a Pod vs Steamer series and was the loser on each player. The crazy thing is that for seven of nine hitters, even Steamer was far too optimistic on the hitter’s home run total. So we actually both missed, but because this was an upside list, Steamer missed by less. That just goes to show you how seriously disappointing some hitters were this year compared to expectations.

Seth Brown was solid this year in deep leagues, especially those that count OBP instead of average, but his HR/FB rate fell from 2021, despite a similar maxEV and Barrel%. Adding to the drop in home run rate was a decline in FB% from extreme to slightly less extreme. He was one of just two hitters on this list that actually beat Steamer’s forecast. I think he’ll rebound somewhat on the HR/FB rate next year, but given the team’s rebuilding efforts, I don’t know how confident I will be that he’ll earn full-time strong side platoon at-bats.

Figures that Darin Ruf sits second on this list and then end up posting the lowest HR/FB rate of his career. His maxEV actually increased, but his Barrel% dropped back into single digits, making his 2021 performance look like an obvious outlier.

Okay, seriously, a 4.5% HR/FB rate for Sam Hilliard over 174 ABs?!?!? He hasn’t posted a mark below 27.3% over a small sample season in the Majors, and then soon as he makes this list, his power goes missing. Since the Rockies never seemed to want to give him a real extended look and he’ll be 29 next season, I think he may have run out of chances.

Mitch Garver was pretty disappointing, then he got hurt and missed the rest of the year, preventing him from potentially rebounding. However, he was the second hitter on the list to exceed Steamer’s projection, but I was forecasting a bit closer to his 2021 HR/FB rate than he ended up finishing with.

Mike Yastrzemski keeps on finding his name on this list and had rewarded my faith in the past. But that wasn’t the case this year and he finished with a career worst HR/FB rate (sound familiar?). His HardHit%, maxEV, and Barrel% were all in line or better than he’s posted in the past, so it’s a real surprise to see his HR/FB rate fall so dramatically. He looks like an obvious rebound candidate next season if he can hold a starting job.

Add Garrett Hampson to the list of hitters who posted a career worst HR/FB rate. His mark was less than half his previous career low! Obviously, you weren’t really buying him for his power, but without power, he becomes even more worthless as a hitter, cutting into his playing time.

Brandon Lowe never got going and dealt with injuries all season. He was limited to just 235 ABs, and surprise, surprise, posted by far a career worst HR/FB rate. Most of his other metrics remained stable and he even cut down on his strikeout rate, though he did so while suffering an increased SwStk%, so the improved strikeout rate might not be sustainable. He could be a profitable buy next year.

Would you look at that, Adam Duvall posted the second lowest HR/FB rate of his career, breaking a streak of three straight marks over 20%. It’s pretty shocking he finished with just a 12.2% mark given an excellent double digit Barrel%.

What happened to Bobby Dalbec’s power? With 70/70 Raw Power and consistently high teen to low 20% HR/FB rates in the minors, this was supposed to be his best skill. When you’re striking out over 30% of the time, a 14.5% HR/FB rate simply doesn’t cut it. I had no idea he was already 27 years old, so he may actually not get another chance as a starter.